D-day minus 39

• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.

• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.

• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.

• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.

• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

648 comments on “D-day minus 39”

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  1. # 50 – True enough Ebenezer…but the million or so people who were watching ACA saw Howard’s naked irritation and don’t need any more MSM to ram it home. Don’t underestimate the power of the water cooler and other word of mouth.

  2. On the betting markets for individual seats, they would be skewed, wouldn’t they, by the placing of any reasonable sized bet on any candidtate, given the small amoount placed on the result in each seat to date.
    So, if an agency is holding, say $5000 on Parramatta, and someone comes in with a bet of $500 on a candidate, it would have to effect the odds fairly markedly for that seat, wouldn’t it?

  3. Snakeboy Says:
    October 16th, 2007 at 10:15 am

    “John Howard, keeping interest rates lower in his own mind than they actually are.”

    Clearly the mantra is buried deep in his sub-conscious.

  4. Antonio 40 – I agree. The tax cuts will appeal to anarrow band of voters who need some extra cashflow. There are many more voters out there looking for changes and new policy in areas such as health, education, the environment and aged care for example. Labor will match the Libs tax bribe in their own good time.

  5. Chinster at 23 you are plain wrong. The last Newspoll summary in the marginals was a whopping 58-42. This fallacy that Labor are getting swings in the wrong places is just desparation on behalf of the government

  6. “Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman.”

    What a load of cobblers!

    Who are these mysterious masked endoscope-wielding proctologists who perform “internal polling” on behalf of Team Rodent; do they bulk bill and has their been any rorting with respect of over-servicing?

    Furthur, which members never have to be reminded about their check up dates?

  8. Thanks Burgey.

    I would have thought that too.

    But as I noted last night in the previous thread, this does not seem to be the case. The bookies seem to have their own reasons for setting odds independently of how the betting is going.

    Sportingbet put out amount figures for 29 seats.

    For Stirling for example, the odds have stayed at 1.85 vs 1.85 for months.

    However, 70% of the money has been put on the Liberal.

    This suggests to me that Sportingbet has its own inside knowledge, eg from individual seat polling which shows an easy win to Labor. Thus sportingbet is happy to live with large amounts of money being put on the Liberal knowing that it is effectively a donation to them. They do not have to adjust their odds.

  9. Yeah, the rodents terse sour ‘Mmm’ that followed being caught out on interest rates was hilarious – particularly after he went so hard on Rudd for not knowing precisely the income tax rates. I think Howard was mortified by this error and it showed when he talked to Kerry Obrien – he’d given up the humble ‘if the aust people would be so kind to re-elect me’ speil and was back to his angstsy twitching best. If the libs don’t get a bounce in the polls after this tax announcement get your binoculars out cos I suspect the little fellow is going to melt down.

    Re the interest rate gaff, Howard shouldn’t have been so disturbed. Its clear from a read of this mornings media that the MSM have no interest at all in exposing his flaws – they’ve got their sights firmly on Kev. The Govt Gazette this morning was so dribbling with praise for their mans fiscal brilliance that it was almost comical. Its a relief that nobody reads the thing and the uncle Rupe keeps it going cos he’s got a soft spot for it.

  10. enemy,andrew et al

    if you run a direct mail house or similair eg telemarketing firm blah blah

    it is quite easy to spruik your services as a “pollster” either directly to a party or as sub-contractor to an existing provider

    also at member/candidate level specific surveys/polls can be “tagged” on to allow extra questions specific to seat/issue

    in summary most polling by the majors is spot on (allowing MOE) where the waters get muddy is when the “harvesting” and also “processing” is done by companies with little or no experience in political sampling

    hope this helps

  11. Howard’s apparent irritation was probably due to a severe attack of Delhi Belly. After all, he did stand quite close to Peter Costello earlier in the day.

  15. I live in Higgins, and my mother was polled last week, evidently by a Lib. This is clear as she was asked, “who did you vote for in 2004?” Mum said Labor, and the pollster commented, “YOU voted for Mark Latham?!”. This seems somewhat unprofessional to me. The poll focused on Costello, and so it seems the Libs are indeed somewhat worried about seats like Higgins.

  16. Channel9 have taken down the link for J-Ho’s blooper on ACA, has anyone got the YouTube link?
    Also Sky are running online poll re tax cuts would they make you vote for Gov?, this morning at 6am it was running 71% no 29% yes
    now running 50/50.

  17. In fact, I think SportingBet have given away some very interesting information to us in this list of the amounts bet.

    But hey! I just went to make a copy of what they have released and it has disappeared.

    I am sorry that the only one I remember is Stirling. Bugger.

    I have just convinced myself that there was a wealth of important inside data probably including private individual polling results rolled up in those figures.

    The bookies are not trying to match odds to what they actually believe are the chances of each side winning. They are trying to quote odds which will attract the maximum amount of betting on the losing candidate.

    Thus, if SportingBet have their own data suggesting a Labor win in Stirling, but the media and the political parties are all saying its 50-50 in Stirling, then SportingBet should quote odds about 50-50 even though they are taking much more money on the Liberal.

    But they must not tell us this.

    If it gets out that they are not reacting to the flow of money in this way then the pro-Liberal punters will dry up, until the bookie quotes higher odds.

    Isn’t that right?

    Now I wish I had a copy of all the other figures. Because for nearly all the 29 seats on their list there were big differences between the public odds and the amounts bet.

  19. Guess who said this? “”There are a lot of figures that float around in people’s heads,” ………………. told Southern Cross Broadcasting.
    “You’re not going to get 100 per cent on all figures all the time.”
    This is the same bloke who flayed Rudd in parliament over getting the tax scales wrong and now he can find excuses for his leader’s lapse. Hypocrite.

  20. Enemy Combatant says;
    “which members never have to be reminded about their check up dates?”

    Shouldn’t that be date check-ups? or up-date checks? 🙂

    LOL

    BEHAVE EC!!

  21. Re bookies: I presume the on-line bookies set a board rather than run a tote. If it is a tote then the odds are a reflection of who the punters think will win.
    More likely it is a board and is therefore just a reflection of how the bookies think they can maximise return. In this situation to say the bookies’ odds always pick the winner – is like saying that the favourite always wins a horse race.

  22. What I was intending to say was: do not believe any polling that asks people what they think “the issues” are. They always say health, education, the environment, yadda yadda, because they know that’s what they ought to be thinking. They never say “money in my pocket” because that looks bad. But in fact that’s what the bulk of them think.

    Likewise, don’t believe polls wherein people say they would rather the surplus was spent on , education, the environment etc, rather than on tax cuts. Whitlam foolishly believed that in 1977, and so did Kinnock in 1992, and both lost. In fact the punters wanted the money, and will do so again this time.

    The difference this time is that Labor also has a potent economic weapon in the repeal of WorkChoices, which will trump tax cuts in the minds of most middle-to-low-income people, including Anglo middle-to-low-income people in marginal seats, who are the crucial demographic at this election. Meanwhile the doctors wives don’t care about tax cuts either, because they’re nicely off anyway thankyou.

  26. The TV polls are there just to make money, nothing more. The Advertiser always has some dumb-ass poll every day, and some days they only have about 20 odd people voting.

  29. The Australian’s electorate map managed by Coredata (great graphics, crap data for now) seems to be missing a seat in Tasmania. I gather Denison is now optional.

    The map is at

    (The most amusing thing is their chamber graphic for House of Reps: fantasy election outcomes on speed).

  30. The Courier-Mail election website has a rather nifty searchable map, which is also missing a seat (Solomon). But the text written for each seat is appalling, straight out of the Liberal Party handbook. In seat after seat we are told that the “crucial local issues” are “hoons” and “law and order”. Utter garbage. What little actual info there is about the seats has been cribbed from my website, which is rather flattering.

  31. The lack of ANY real comment in the MSM re the inflationary effect of these tax cuts is astonishing, particularly given the Govts historical boastings about keeping interest rates low. It really drives home to you how hard it is for Labor to win government.

  33. Agree with Adam, abolishing dorkchoices is better than a tax cut.

    I reckon the ALP should keep the top rates as are, but up the income free for everyone a tidge (a general, equal tax cut), and then do something similar on low income rebates.

    As for the utter nonsense in the GG about QLD – piffle. There’s no way the ALP will get less than a 5% swing, and two seats will definitely fall. Personally, I think 50-50 2PP is very likely, it which case we’ll see 4 or 5 go down.

    And props to Mackerras! At least he puts he spondoolies on the line.

    Im going ALP 8-10 seat majority.

    And for the record: anyone who calls it for the coalition is welcome – indeed entitled – to nyah nyah me for the next year. Ill cop it sweet, and say “yes indeed, sir /madam, you were right, and I was wrong”.

    But no nyaaa nyaas from fence sitters. Put yer money down!!

  34. The Australian’s electorate map managed by Coredata (great graphics, crap data for now) seems to be missing a seat in Tasmania. I gather Denison is now optional.

    The map is here.

    (The most amusing thing is their chamber graphic for House of Reps: fantasy election outcomes on speed).

  37. Adam , I still remember from the SA state election, the local liberal candidate in Bright handing out his propaganda with “”West Bank, Beirut or Baghdad? No – It’s Adelaide 2006! How can we feel safe with Mr Rann in charge?”. This is the usual tory law and order nonsense.

    Rita Bouras in Hindmarsh is a good example. Her election leaflets look like something you might make-up for a council election. There is a picture of her kneeling down looking at a cracked gutter for goodness sake ! This is woeful for a federal election candidate.

  38. Kina Says:
    October 16th, 2007 at 11:19 am
    The results of on-line polls and TV polls indicate nothing more than viewer demographic.

    I have a lot of fun with the Govt Gazette online polls.

    Often I am the only one to vote in my Postcode and get 100% for which way I vote.

    If any others in my Postcode/Electorate change that position, I just keep voting until I get my position back up again.

    Hence, 80% 2PP for my Electorate, 100% for my Postcode etc.

    Basically all these polls are worthless and should be treated as such. Good for entertainment value only.

  41. How funny is the data in the Australian’s electorate map? I can’t stop laughing at how a) not only is labour going to win 100+ seats but apparently lose Brand and win all of Sydney except McKeller and Mitchell.

  42. Just for fun, I had a look at the online poll the GG is running. Numbers still low (about 2000 per State) but no joy for the Libs. All States are bright red!

  43. Shockingly, Coredata don’t seem to be distributing preferences. There’s a whole 28 Lib voters in MacKellar, to 27 ALP and 9 greens, and these clowns are calling it for the government! Outrageous.

    I really think we should save bandwidth and ignore these opt-in polls. Utter utter pointlessnesslessness.

  44. (The most amusing thing is their chamber graphic for House of Reps: fantasy election outcomes on speed).

    The reason why it is so ridiculous is precisely because so many people have been doing just what I outlined in my post at 88.

    As I said, entertainment value only.

    The only relevance they could have is if Coredata etc could have some method to ensure that people only voted once and that they were eligible voters. ie not some pimply faced 13 year olds sitting in front of a computer doing the bidding of political operators.

  45. Adam
    Why do you think that Fisk/Chomsky et al, can just be dismissed over the deep seated problems with America if a Democrat govt get’s in. I take it that they can change some stuff, but there is stuff deaper than this, – like globalisation is based on a neoliberal agenda – ie western corporate interests – you would have to reset the ideological agenda for the WB, IMF etc and I cannot see these profound changes happening under a democrat govt -with the left leaning ones yes, but they are not the dominant ones…I think there is merit in the intellectual left’s view – the problems are very deep..

  47. I suspect that many of us are getting a little carried away by the events of the first few days of the campaign. The Libs’ tax plan has certainly made a big splash, but with still well over five weeks to play, I’d be wary about arguing that anything that happens this week being especially significant.

    In fact, the Libs’ tax giveaway (but only if you vote for us) is more a sign of their desperation. The Coalition is entering this campaign in as bad a shape as any government before them – they needed a big bang at the start of the campaign just to get themselves on the scoreboard. However, despite it’s favourable media coverage over the last 24 hours, it’s hard to see if giving them that much of a boost. After all, the tax cuts in the Budget sank without trace, and these ones are far more conditional, so I can’t imagine that Howard & co will get any sustained improvement in their vote.

    I think we would all do well to remember that this is a 6 week campaign, and most people won’t pay that much attention until about 2 weeks out (ie after the Melbourne Cup). If there is a “soft” edge to Labor’s vote (which I doubt), then it won’t really come into play until that final fortnight. In the meantime, all Labor needs to do is watch the government desperately chase votes, and make sure that there are no ALP own-goals.

  48. Doesn’t everyone always say they’ll leave the country if their party of choice doesn’t win?

    Surprisingly, life for us little people rolls on no matter who’s in government.

  50. The Four Corners report on the secret fund raising by the Brethern on behalf of the so called Liberal Party appears to have vanished into the ether. The tax policy release may have helped bury a very serious problem for Howard and Co.

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