After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.
Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.
When parties go into campaigns leading big, they win big, as has happened at every state election in living memory.
If I was a Liberal Party strategist I’d be very happy to read this blog with the over confidence shown by the Labor side and so many people planning their victory celebrations when the battle has only begun. Why does no one on the Labor side listen to Kevin Rudd when he says it’s going to be a hard fought election with a close result? If you think the Libs are going to roll over and play dead just because of a bunch of polls you’re kidding yourself. Right now, there are teams of Liberal Party supporters pouring over the details of every marginal and looking for local issues which can swing votes. They will fight tooth and nail for every seat. This election will be won and lost in the marginals, not in the opinion polls.
paul k: I’ve listened and I’m helping out in Kooyong. Every little bit helps.
I think Glen realises that Howard has through pure selfishness and lust for power blown this election.
Like all drug addicts Howard can’t see his problem or thinks it is small. It doesn’t help that he hates Costello and would rather lose the election than see him as leader of the party.
You would expect the campaign to end up a draw and, accounting for those who suffer from fear of change the final result might be 54/46.
If Howard & Co stuffs up big time with some trick, smear then 55-56 I guess could be a real eye-opener.
Fargo61 (70),
When the ALP federal executive debated intervening in Victoria to take control from the anti-communist wing of the party, Kim Beazley snr was overseas, at a Moral Rearmament conference I think,so his place as a WA representative on the executive was taken by another delegate (whose name I forget). Mr Beazley would have voted against intervention, but the replacement voted for it, giving it the numbers. Without intervention in Victoria, there would have been no split, as the subsequent NSW and Queensland splits followed from the Victorian one.
Yes, because what a bunch of (apparently) rusted on ALP voters say in blog comments has relevance to the electoral battle in the marginals.
I’m sure the people in the field are not complacent and are working their arses off. After eleven years in the wilderness, you can’t be.
Could some of you cleaver people here please help me with the rodents latest track suit.
Maby the yellow and green track suite is at the cleaners or is there something i’m missing?
The position of Howard in the polls is the result of many issues after 11 years. But to think that the Libs can win by running the economic line against Labor won’t work. It’s more than just pay packets – Howard is no longer trusted after children overboard, interest rate lies, Iraq, AWB etc etc. People are sick of his slimy obfuscation and use of legalese and weasel-words to try to get out of trouble. Howard has too much negative baggage. Rudd looks clean, honest and smart – the voters are happy to give him a go. The hearse awaits in the driveway.
The LIbs do their best to appear either smallminded, or buffoons.
Al Gore wins a Nobel Peace Prize, and JWH says.. That’s nothing, I ‘m gonna turn off my computer tonight.I can do that!
Rudd talks Mandarin. Downer says he learnt French (but carefully doesn’t prove it by speaking it in an international forum)
A Catholic priest speaks out on social matters..Abbott tells him to stick to transubstantiation!
This lot are really off the planet!
Paul K.
If liberal strategists are reading this blog to find answers then they are in big trouble. Yes we are confident but not overly so. There is change afoot and nothing will slow its momentum. To suggest that one utterance of new liberal policy will stem the tide is to not understand our psyche. We no longer like this slimy lying self-indulgent bunch of pretentious turds. Game over! By emphasizing it will be close, Rudd is quelling the sympathy vote that might come from fear of a rout. And rout is exactly what we will get.
Liz, I think its fair to say that Glen Milne is “soft” in his support for Rudd, much like Sol Leibovic.
Trying to think analytically about what might change trends between now and polling day, I thought it woudl be interesting to compile a list of dates with potentially significant dates between now and 24 November. Does anyone know:
– when is the next Reserve bank decision on interest rates due?
– when are next major figures on inflation or unemployment due?
– is the Dr Haneef appeal due in court before 24 November?
– is there anything due on those Qld cases of the electoral expenses investigations, or are they closed?
– anything else that might influence people beyond the spin?
It’s amazing that after the country being at it’s peak of economic growth that some Australia’s still have their blinkers on as to who is the best party to lead this country. It really is a no brainer. The current government is the most experienced to run this country. With the current climate of the world going made. Who is the better leader to continue to build strong international relationships. Keven Rudd will only bag out another international leader, or a section of the community, to piss them all off then what?? work that one out for your self – he has no professional tack at all.
For those who do not have to live in a State run by Labour MPs you will never know what it is like, to live with decisions that have been made by Labour State MPs, who have now effected our lifestyle due to poor planning or lack of. In Queensland Kevin Rudd had a part to play and yes whilist some don’t want to remember due to Kevin’s part with poor decision making. The Dam was not built in the right spot and as a result of that and the Labour Government not brining in water restrictions soon enough.
The day in the life of a Queenslander, South East qld, 4 minute showers if that, crammed trains, that don’t run frequent enough, congested roads, joke, lack of hospital services, infrastructure that should have been done years ago and even now the underground roads are only 2 lanes. Hundreds of people working in Government Departments, (State Goverment) that the Federal should take over and streamline the processes. That’s the reality.
Finally all Australia’s should accept their history. Aboriginal people are the first people of this land. And the sooner everyone accepts their heritage and embraces it. Takes interest in, it – the better. Wouldn’t it be nice to see a traditional aboriginal dance when Australia play instead of that – Waltz Sing Maltida (who’s culture is that) perhaps the people who are intereted in voting for an incompetent oppostion government.
Don’t all whinge when you re-live the days of interest rates hiked under the Labour Government. If you think it’s tough now and un fair then you haven’t seen anything yet if narrow minded people vote for Kevin Rudd – it’s a joke.
Educate yourselves better with the past?? That is all I can say. To every pensioner who had to live the Labour years, I think you will all understand what I mean.
To the young generation, listen for once to the older generation so you don’t have to relive our pain again.
Lets us retire with content, and not a unstable country with unstable leadership.
As this is my first post (having visited for ages), thanks to William for the fantastic site (and all the effort that must go into it)!
I was wondering if anyone knew of any sites that provide (or will provide) factual comparisons of the policies of the parties. I think something like that (which was not aligned to a particular party) would be really interesting (I’d love to see more focus on policy, wishful thinking I know)
I liked what the PTUA did for the Victorian election in 2006 (although, obviously this is from their viewpoint, not a completely objective comparison).
http://www.ptua.org.au/election2006/
Any thoughts?
Re. 70% of Howard’s cabinet are lawyers.
Given that Union Bosses represent the workers, who do lawyers usually represent? – Should give a clue to the record of this government, especially all their legalistic verbiage in avoiding responsibility for all their cock-ups and outright corrupt actions.
It’s going to be a very long 40 days and 40 nights.
Kina Says: @ 33
{The Govt wants around 5% to flip to them? About 650,000 people. But of course none can be flipping in the opposite direction.}
Kina, looking at that graph form the Age, it is clear that Howard missed his best chance by not calling the election in July for an August election.
He was getting a small trend back and the margin is nowhere near as large as it is now. To try and peg it back enough to win now is a big ask.
http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/10/15/1192300611984.html
56-44 is an excellent result for the ALP after what was really a fairly average week. But it’s the next Newspoll that will be truly interesting, as it will be the first to be taken comprehensively after the starter’s gun has gone off.
Political analysts are struggling a bit to put their finger precisely on why the polls have been so consistently good for the ALP, and why they continue to be.
My view is that it comes down to a simple issue of time. John Howard has been in power for 11 years. Eventually you tend to hurt a lot of people in some way or another over such a period. The longer you are around the more likely it is that you will do something or say something that creates a grudge for an individual voter, or at least a negative perception to counter the widely held view that Howard is a “good, ordinary bloke”. So it’s a matter of discontent building up over a long stretch of time. People tend to hang onto the negative more than the positive. It’s the way we’re built.
[- when are next major figures on inflation or unemployment due?]
There’s an inflation report from the bureau of statistics due on the 24th, next Wednesday.
The reserve bank board meets on the 6th of November, and will announce the interest rate change (if any) on 7th of November.
Socrates 111 – the next inflation figures are due from ABS on 24 October, the RBA sits on 6 Nov. The markets appear to have factored in a rate rise by looking at the Oz dollar (92 US). If the inflation figure is scary on 24 Oct, don’t be surprised if the RBA does raise rates on Nov 6. A lucky Melbourne Cup pressie for Howard!!
Socrates, RBA meets re interest rates on Melbourne Cup day. The media will jump all over Johnnie if there’s a rise (unprecendented in our history to have a rate rise during an election campaign)
Chris Curtis @105.
My understanding was that the party expelled Santamaria’s parliamentary supporters at the 1955 conference so, in many ways the ALP brought the split onto themselves.
In hindsight, I think the split has given us a better balanced Labor party than being controlled by the lunatic fringe of the far left.
Kina Says: @ 80
{A longer campaign might actually work against the Government. The longer people get to contemplate a Labor Govt the more they will get familiar and less nervous about change. Probably the Govt needed to run a very short super-fear campaign.}
Kina, I have thought that for a long time. The best chance Howard had was to have a short furious campaign with a strong message hammered home at every opportunity to try and take oxygen from Rudd’s campaign.
That he hasn’t done that suggests that 1. He has had poor advice from his adviser’s 2. In running scared due to the emergence of terrific PPM figures from Rudd and the diabolic position they find themselves in the polls, Howard has guessed wrongly again and will most probably only add to the pain with an extremely late, long campaign.
If Labor wins the campaign, which I predict it to do, then, not only is Howard finished, it will be a route of biblical proportions.
New Australia – nice manifesto, but I think that most passing through here are pretty informed, and formed in their views with regards to their vote. You should campaign elsewhere.
The debate over the debate is hotting up.
Seems Howard’s proposal involved it being aired ONLY on Pay TV.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22587129-29277,00.html
Alex and Ozymandias, thanks that is what I was wondering. Are there any dates for likely up-side news for the Government? Also, any major dates for other issues that might be significant – didn’t Haneef’s legal team have some court appeal lodged, or is that due next year?
Also, as a comment on the Newspoll, I don’t see why its such a surprise. The phoney war has been going on for so long now, with high levels of taxpayer-funded and union-funded advertising, that this isn’t that much of a change. Many will be glad the end is in sight, regardless of preference. Logically only those who want Howard to win and who have something personal invested (eg jobs as political hacks) would want this to continue.
Gecko @110
Liberal strategists would not be reading these threads.
We are converted to the Labor party on this site and I haven’t read anyone on here as a swinging voter.
The Liberals will be looking at the marginals for opinions, not here.
I agree with Paul K, complacency is our biggest danger. This election is a lot closer than the polls suggest and you watch the gap tighten now that the date has been set.
Everybody in Australia now lives in a state/territory run by Labor MPs.
I agree with Pancho, nice spiel, but I daresay it’s not going to get much traction here.
Errr….everyone lives in a state run by Labor. Unless, of course, this blog is over-run by interfering Botswanans.
Twit.
[It’s amazing that after the country being at it’s peak of economic growth that some Australia’s still have their blinkers on as to who is the best party to lead this country.]
Generally it isn’t a good idea being so patronising when you are trying to persuade people to support one political party or the other.
Or are you using the John Howard tactic of saying that all the opinion polls just show that Australians have a sense of humour?
[The current government is the most experienced to run this country. ]
How experienced at being P.M. was John Howard on March 4, 1996? If we adopt this experience rubbish the government would never change, which is probably what you want. But that’s too bad, because we live in a democracy.
[With the current climate of the world going made.]
Unfortunately the current government doesn’t have a very good climate change policy.
[Who is the better leader to continue to build strong international relationships. Keven Rudd]
That would be Kevin Rudd.
[will only bag out another international leader, or a section of the community, to piss them all off then what?? work that one out for your self – he has no professional tack at all. ]
This doesn’t make any sense.
[For those who do not have to live in a State run by Labour MPs you will never know what it is like, to live with decisions that have been made by Labour State MPs, who have now effected our lifestyle due to poor planning or lack of.]
Um, vote that state government out then. Kevin Rudd is running to be elected prime minister, which is a position in federal politics.
[In Queensland Kevin Rudd had a part to play and yes whilist some don’t want to remember due to Kevin’s part with poor decision making. The Dam was not built in the right spot and as a result of that and the Labour Government not brining in water restrictions soon enough.]
???
[The day in the life of a Queenslander, South East qld, 4 minute showers if that]
Everyone should have 4 minute showers. It is a standard measure to conserve water.
[Finally all Australia’s should accept their history. Aboriginal people are the first people of this land. And the sooner everyone accepts their heritage and embraces it. Takes interest in, it – the better.]
So why has Howard done nothing about Aboriginal reconcillation for 11 years?
Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating all supported reconcilliation. The current Prime Minister is the odd one out.
[Don’t all whinge when you re-live the days of interest rates hiked under the Labour Government.]
What about when the 30 day bill rate was 22% under Treasurer John Howard? Or do we only refer to history when it favours us?
[To the young generation, listen for once to the older generation so you don’t have to relive our pain again.]
More patronising garbage. Telling people what they should do without a logical argument won’t persuade anyone.
“interfering Botswanans.” 🙂 Always getting in the way, curse them!
“We’ll fix hospitals for working families” (Rudd on Sunrise this morning)
What about the rest of us?? I’m getting sick of this whole working families thing.
Oh and prorogation proclamation for those interested: http://www.ag.gov.au/portal/govgazonline.nsf/C2592AB524E7B3A0CA2573750007F345/$file/S204.pdf
So to win Howard needs to campain as well or better than he did against Latham. Here 10’s reasons why I don’t think that will happen.
1) Howard got very lucky early on in the last campain when the Aust. Embassay was bombed in Jakata. It put national security into focus for much of the campain. Touch wood – this won’t happen again. Even if it does Rudd is not cornered in the same way the Latham was.
2) During the campain there were a few fairwell to troops ceromonies which Latham was wedged into supporting. Each time he lost momentum. This time around Iraq is a baggage for Howard. Expect to hear the phrase “worst forigen policy mistake since vietnam” alot.
3) Latham traded two tassie seats for (it seems) no green votes on the mainland. Rudd has not made this political mistake (welcome to politics Mr Garrett).
4) Rudd is more personable and telegenic than Howard.
5) Workchoices
6) Climate change
7) A more disciplinded campain from the ALP this time around. (Not a one-man catherine wheel).
8) Rudd is from QLD where there are a bag of marginals
9) The articulate and presentable Maxine will be a constant under-dog side story throughout the campain.
10) The ALP is cashed up and has weathered the storm of tax payer funded advertising without having to fire a shot and give any of its positions away.
Having said all that – Rudd and the ALP still need a good campain to bring it home.
If I was a Liberal Party strategist I’d be very happy to read this blog with the over confidence shown by the Labor side…
paul k 102
And if I was Labor party strategist I’d be very happy to read the kind of drivel that passes for informed commentary by the rabid right acolytes that populate blogs like Tim Blair’s and Andrew Bolt’s.
•••••••••••••••••••••
112 New Australia
Interesting how your handle link resolves to an invalid URL (http://aliashotmail.com/). Might want to fix that, huh?
Also interesting how a number of ‘new’ commentators have suddenly turned up here lately, all spouting selectively detailed Coalition talking points. Hmm.
This post is a nice summation IMHO. Labor has the momentum and the circumstances. Nice use of the word zeitgeist. Even though Rudd mis-steps, it doesn’t matter. Last election, people wanted Howard out but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Latham. This time around, more people are more serious about evicting Howard, while Rudd is more electable than Latham was.
People want Rudd to be good enough, so by definition he will be. Open your eyes, doubters, look at the mistakes that Rudd has made and not a single one has hurt him in any way whatsoever; he is made of teflon and Howard knows it and it shows.
[The debate over the debate is hotting up.
Seems Howard’s proposal involved it being aired ONLY on Pay TV.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22587129-29277,00.html%5D
That is just completely lame. If it is true that he didn’t want it shown on free to air, then Rudd should attack him for running scared.
(I personally think the terms of debate should be determined years in advance by an independent boady, and an act of parliament. I think this debate about the debate is terribly boring, and gives too much power to the incumbent P.M.)
I’m happy to see somethign of the sort is Labor policy:
“A federal Labor government would establish a debates commission to organise three leaders’ debates during future election campaigns, Mr Rudd said. “
[To the young generation, listen for once to the older generation so you don’t have to relive our pain again.]
Er um… I think the older generation are going to vote for the ALP too
suckers for punishment maybe?
Glen’s worst nightmare:
http://www.coredata.com.au/theaustralianmap.php
# 107 – envy, The Rodent obviously decided to change his track suit the moment Jonny Wilkinson put the Wallabies to the sword. Because he never thought this would happen – along with most other Rugby tragics – he had to send Janette hurriedly down to K-Mart for another one.
That’s the one he’s wearing now.
Chtis Curtis @ 105
Your synopis of events 50+ years ago is OK, but I think it overlooks the deep personal animosities, and unbridgeable philosophical divide in the ALP at the time.
Stan Keon the then MHR for Yarra would make any of the Neocons look like boy scouts.
The situation would have exploded whatever papering over of the cracks.
Makes you wonder who they think they’ll reach. The number of undecideds posting to this site would have to be very low, surely. As for undecided lurkers, only William could estimate the number of total lurkers and I imagine the undecideds amongst them would be low.
So realistically, what do the Lib apparatchiks hope to achieve. Ameliorate the zeitgeist? 😉
Thanks Snakeboy,
The one he’s wearing now has the Government logo on,
Looks like prison uniform,….maybe he’s practicing.
Amber I’m still undecided,
Undecided on whether to vote for Kevin once or twice 😉
Ameliorate the zeitgeist?
That rolls of the tongue very nicely, AD. Maybe that could be the Coalition’s new slogan? 🙂
How could you not vote for someone who looks like this:
http://www.alp.org.au/people/index.php?task=qs&seat=sturt
OK, that’s only my opinion… 😛
“…rolls off the tongue…”
Sheesh.
Just Me @ 132:
“Also interesting how a number of ‘new’ commentators have suddenly turned up here lately, all spouting selectively detailed Coalition talking points. Hmm.”
Same story on other blogs and message boards.
Message must have come down from Liberal Party HQ: “Start blogging, we’re not paying you $8 an hour to sit on your behinds.”
Yes they are definitely here. Posting and reading.
I’ve noted that some discussion in this blog on flaws in the Lib campain has let to changes in the campain. For example, one workchoices ad was re-shot to remove a silly bit that was widely discussed here.
Be careful, they are struggling to stay afloat – offer nothing but stones.
Speaking of tracksuits, did Howard stay up and watch the Rugby the other night? I didn’t see him on the tv. Whereas we always seem to see him cheering the team on at midnight when it wins. Amazing there is always a camera crew hanging around his lounge room at those times. I’m sure they’re not staged shots though – no doubt he watches every game, and doesn’t just instruct a minder to say “wake me five minutes before full time if we’re in front”. Its the genuineness of the man that I respect most.
ShowsOn @ 143 says:
“How could you not vote for someone who looks like this:
http://www.alp.org.au/people/index.php?task=qs&seat=sturt
OK, that’s only my opinion…”
Mia Handshin is one smart cookie; Christopher P y n e has good reason to be concerned.
I think this map is quite interesting, although of course you can’t take much from it, it being a net poll with, currently, a law sample size.
http://www.coredata.com.au/theaustralianmap.php
Liz @ 100
It’s a sizzler, that Milne piece today, and goes some small way to redeeming his boofhead appearance on Insiders this week. (Milne is so much better in print, he really should not try to compete with fast and articulate talkers in that TV format)
But he’s on the money today: Howard is soooo alone this time. The Cheshire Smirk (well, Costello is all but invisible except for the grin) has been annointed as ‘leadership material’ and then virtually ignored by Howard, which makes the ‘team’ story look like just another ‘non-core promise’.
Ever since they scrawled 10 billion bucks on the back of an envelope and then waved it about as a policy to save the Murray Darling, we’ve had Howard running a government by fiat and fueled by a massive surplus. So now the electorate has to don its hard hats as the pork rains down on the marginals and all there the while there’s Howard trying desperately to convince us (and himself no doubt) that his time is not well and truly up.
Milne nailed him today, there’s nowhere to hide.