The weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll is the first in three weeks that doesn’t put a six in front of Labor’s two-party preferred vote, which is down from 61 per cent to 57.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 53.5 per cent to 49.4 per cent and the Coalition’s up from 35.5 per cent to 38 per cent. The poll was conducted on the weekend, so very recent political developments would not have been a factor.
Tabitha Says:
October 12th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
“Labor is for lazy people who will not work. Liberal is for opportunity and a fair go.”
Thanks for clearing that up.
Swing Lowe @ 94
I thought Labor had their official campaign launch a few weeks ago. I remember John Howard ridiculing him for reading from the ‘rear view mirrors… or autocues or whatever they’re called”.
Kina @ 98: I agree with you. If you look at the graph on Morgan’s website the trend is actually going away from the Liberals since July/August, after taking the natural variation into account.
Lol, Post 79 Ruawake.
True, economic sunshine when the Coalition is in power and rain when Labor is in power.
Nothing wrong with surpluses as long as they are used wisely. I think personally we should have more funds such as the future fund and higher education endowement fund. In this time of plenty we should be making a fund for each government portfolio for the future, in this way the next generations needs are met and they pay less tax.
CTEP,
yeah, apparently the P.M hates “American-style” campaigning. I’m expecting to receive a recorded phone message telling me as much.
This is like an Americas cup race – don’t want to cross the line too early and have to circle back to restart. Howard is not jostling at the starting line.
The issue may or may not win Howard votes – the impression that he gives might win him some. Seems like he is being like a good PM doing something useful and I expect it is meant to jolt a block of voters over to him. Usually Labor create their own noise at these times to reduce the effect of any message.
In one weeks time this will be ancient histroy of course.
CTEP
That was the pseudo-election campaign launch, just to give John Howard a taste of things to come.
Howard has now switched to me-too politics, how many Labor policies will he agree to?
CTEP @ 102,
I’m sure Labor will have another “launch” when the campaign officially begins, when Rudd can wax lyrical to his heart’s content about his vision for the future – though I think all it will do will grab the media’s attention for about 24 hours (at most) before they move onto the next big thing…
Yes, Andos the Great. They are waiting for the Toad to jump.
Tabitha, you might want to read this article. It seems to me Rudd is in the clear and guess what, I found this in the GG.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22572159-601,00.html
‘Only Government’ can unite with Aborigines
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22574103-29277,00.html
John Howard says:
“I don’t believe Labor could unite conservative and progressive Australians on this issue,”
Oh dear, when you think he can sink no lower. How silly of me, this whole 11 years what they’ve been doing is laying the ground work to unite conservative and progressive Australians… of course! Now I’m definately voting Liberal!
Ye of little faith, of course Kevin can make it rain. Bob made it rain, and Kevin’s a better Christian than Bob was. It’s a statistical fact that it rains more when Labor is in office. The farmers know this, which is why Labor is going to carry Mallee, O’Connor and Maranoa. (You heard it here first.)
John: “Nothing wrong with surpluses as long as they are used wisely.”
Surpluses, by definition, are not used.
Adam: I’ve seen that before, have you got a link to it?
The Federal Dept. of Communications has been “head hunting” consultants with Dept of Finance experience in the last two days to implement the policies of the “new” ? Govt.
Pay rates to be released next Monday???
Howard knows oppostions only get equal coverage once the election is called. Hence the delay and the many announcements by him on behalf of the government and the great coverage they are getting. About as transparent as his ads.
Megalogenis revealed in an opinion article on Thursday that the Liberal’s private polling shows an improvement in their primary vote. It has been stuck around 40, so I guess that means it is now on 42 or so. Still not enough to win, but it makes snese for Howard to call the election this weekend.
Having said that, I pray for a rogue on the Tuesday Newspoll to ruin the start of the governments campaign.
Good article on the Heiner “affair” from Hedley Thomas in The Australian, even if it should have been an opinion piece. Money quote:
Is parliament back this Monday?
“John Howard says:
“I don’t believe Labor could unite conservative and progressive Australians on this issue,â€
So his idea of uniting people involves accentuating political differences?
He has a habit of constantly demonstrating why I think he has been a piss weak P.M.
We all know how reliable the LIbs private polling has been. Still geeing up the troops.
John
It is “scheduled” for Monday – Friday is a non sitting day if it sits.
Quick, before the ABC notices it stuffed up, but in their news article ‘Rudd tight-lipped on PM’s reconciliation timing’ article, they say ‘former Labor prime minister Malcom Fraser’.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/12/2058136.htm?section=justin
My great-aunt Mavis in Tittybong told me. She has recorded the rainfall in Tittybong every day since 1937. “That nice Mr Chifley brought us some lovely rain,” she said. “Made the lupins come up a treat, he did.”
ShowsOn @ 117,
Do you have a link to that article?
hahahahaha! BIAS!
Thanks Ruawake. 🙂
If I were PM I would call the election Midday Monday. That way Labor Candidates lose 1-2 days of campaigning as they have to return to their electorates.
[ShowsOn @ 117,
Do you have a link to that article?]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22566192-601,00.html
“While the published opinion polls predict a landslide to Labor, it is understood the Coalition’s primary vote has been improving in recent weeks, according to private party research. ”
Still, they need the primary to be about 45 if they want to win. I can’t see it going from 40 to 45 in the space of a month and a half.
Good article William. Tabitha, have you read it yet?
CTEP @ 111
“I don’t believe Labor …”, etc
Did he really say that? He is certainly deranged. Must be awful place, his mind. Dante’s Inferno, not to mention nasty types under the bed.
For what it’s worth, I’m in the “election to be called tomorrow” camp. It’ll be for 24 November or 1 December (long campaign). If it wasn’t for Parliament supposedly sitting on Monday I think he’d wait till Sunday. But I don’t think he has that much wiggle room. I also think that Costello knew and did give it away in Parliament…
In the SMH re Howard “As to his plans during the weekend, he said: “I’m seeing people, I’ve things to do and miles to walk.”” In the past he’s ruled out calling it over the weekend.
If Parliament goes back, the Senate whips will have to try and stop Barnaby making something out of this Heiner inquiry document nonsense. That is too risky. That and other things run the serious risk of losing focus.
Also, he’s had the reconciliation thing last night and the manifesto thing today. Rudd is less visible, so if Howard’s ever going to get any momentum, it’ll be now.
Centrebet must be still getting serious money for the coalition, mind you it is the onlt one really moving in the coalition’s direction. The others seem fairly stable.
Spot on Dr Good, Keating’s famous J curve in full effect that predicted 15 years of solid economic growth way back in 1993. Time has shown he was 100% correct and Howard and Costello have simply been, in PJK’s words, hit with a rainbow up their arse. When Howard has fallen by the wayside joe bloe public will finally understand what ever decent economist has always known and Costello will be seen for the economic fraud and dill he really is.
As Keating also once said; “Costello can’t claim to be pulling any levers, I disconnected them with deregulation and gave what’s left to the independent RBA to play with”.
As to Labor needing to do something to counter Howard, I believe they do not. They simply have to let all this “one minute to midnight” meaningless froth and bubble hot air blow itself out and wait for the campaign proper to start. They need to hold their nerve, keep their big guns and powder dry, until the REAL war starts. You don’t have to win every skirmish to win the war, but you must have the resources to win the battle that really counts, and that hasn’t started yet. No point wasting it on howard’s purile maneouverings at the moment, all this stuff will just blow away soon as the real battle is joined.
I am certain Howard has decided on an election date, Downer “almost” said he knew on ABC Brisbane radio (he could not subsume his ego).
He also said he would announce the election after he had been to see the GG, then paused and said or the Acting GG.
Tomorrow is my guess.
Nothing wrong with deficits, as long as they are used wisely, either.
Wise economic management is rarely a problem.
[For what it’s worth, I’m in the “election to be called tomorrow†camp. It’ll be for 24 November or 1 December (long campaign).]
But surely every parliamentary member (well, bar Howard) has booked tickets to go back to Canberra.
If he calls the election tomorrow, or Sunday, then Rudd can immediately attack him for a huge waste of tax payer’s money.
John Howard: “If re-elected, I will put to the Australian people within 18 months a referendum to formally recognise indigenous Australians in our Constitution …” blah blah blah …
And so he’s let slipped that he would hand over the throne to Costello
within 18 months if he’d ever re-elected 🙂
Costello, mark your diary, for you would be PM within 18 months after
Howard re-elected, if ever.
But I recon it would never happend as Howard will be thrown out at this election.
It is funny that Howard has been such a big opponent of symbolic reconcilation, but then he proposes something that is completely symbolic. As far as the legal consensus goes, inserting something into the preamble doesn’t confer any rights whatsoever. In other words, the only way he could agree to this gesture was if it was inherently legally meaningless.
I’ll bet on the election being December 8th. Howard wants a long campaign.
Show’s on, all the pollies would have the fully-flexible qantas fares anyway, so it will make no difference to them if they cancel the day before. They can just use the ticket within 12 months.
ShowsOn,
I don’t think the cost of cancelling some airfares will be a major consideration for JWH in calling the election.
This is probably the best timing the Coalition has had in a while in regards to calling the election. They seem to have momentum, Labor’s had a slip-up this week and if the Newspoll is less than 56/44 next week, they can claim that they have the momentum in the polls as well..
Can anyone say “non-core”?
Howard is now arguing that only the Coalition can acheive genuine reconciliation. Only they can unite Conservative and Progressive Australians so that we can mention Indigenous people in the preamble.
…this is truly a stange man.
Liz: Not a chance in hell. The retail sector will crucify him because it will affect their holiday shopping period. Dec 1 has to be the latest.
Gee – where is Tabitha when you need a laugh??
Hmmmmmm……………………
[PRIME Minister John Howard has cleared the decks for a November 24 election, announcing several key appointments and releasing a five-point vision plan.
A day after his about-face on Aboriginal reconciliation, Mr Howard released a 33-page document summing up coalition policies for the coming election campaign.
He also reappointed public service commissioner Lynelle Briggs for a three-year term, while the Government appointed ambassadors to Mexico and Brazil, one Indigenous Land Corporation member and five members of an expert panel to oversee Tasmania’s controversial pulp mill.
Mr Howard also today announced a review of recommended awards for service personnel involved in the Battle of Long Tan during the Vietnam war more than 40 years ago.
The flurry of activity has strengthened speculation that Mr Howard plans to ask Governor-General Michael Jeffery to dissolve parliament as early as tomorrow for an election on either November 17 or 24.]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22574225-5005361,00.html
Showson – I think in the circumstances the MPs would have been obtaining fully flexible tickets…
Laugh it up Labor boys, the end is approaching very fast. Maybe Robert McLlelland will be opposition leader to pick up the pieces on Sunday 25 November? Ha Ha
Sings: “It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas…”
“Mr Howard also today announced a review of recommended awards for service personnel involved in the Battle of Long Tan during the Vietnam war more than 40 years ago. ”
Could you imagine Howard in a country with little or weak democratic institutions. This guy would make a f***ing terrific dictator. That’s not a judgement on his morals, just his political skills. Oh, except for workchoices. Can you imagine at how pissed off with himself he would be.