Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll is the first in three weeks that doesn’t put a six in front of Labor’s two-party preferred vote, which is down from 61 per cent to 57.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 53.5 per cent to 49.4 per cent and the Coalition’s up from 35.5 per cent to 38 per cent. The poll was conducted on the weekend, so very recent political developments would not have been a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

810 thoughts on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. I guess Rudd is holding his vision statement back id have thought he’d have released it by now so he can bash the Government with it but maybe he’s doing a Beazley or Howard in keeping to a small target…i wonder when we’ll get Labor’s tax policy one week before the election lol but seriously i still think Parliament will sit and i still think it will be a December 1 poll…nevertheless i am happy Howard has ‘finally’ given a clear statement as to the future policies of a 5th Howard Government but it should have been out there since early this year…

  2. John of Melbourne #127,
    why would Labor candidates lose a day and a half if the election is called on Monday? Most Labor candidates will be campaigning in electorates come monday – certainly some MPs will be inconvenienced, but you might have noticed that the coalition has a majority in Parliament and so more of them will be stuffed around and kept away from their electorates than will Labor members.

  4. 104 John of Melbourne
    I agree with safeguarding the future (it used to be a given before the me me me generation came to power).
    If we take some money and put it aside it become worth relatively less over time – correct?
    If I gave you $10million what sort of return would you expect annually?
    From a bank?
    From the stock market?
    From a well run private business?
    Let’s agree on the general detail before we go further.

  6. Tabatha says:

    “I say please Mr Howard let parliament sit so the Heiner Papers can be produced and the Australian people will know the truth.”

    Hey Tabatha, I hear that the “shredded ” documents have been found (in the custody of the QLD police). What will Piers go on about now; the fact that St Kev and others “lied” about shredding them?

  7. Glen,

    I would question the timing of Howard’s release of his vision statement.

    Why today? It’s going to get drowned out by the reconciliation thing and the fact that he released it on a Friday means that most people aren’t going to pay attention to it at all. Unless that’s his intention???

  9. Just to keep you happy CTEP…

    The Country Party 2.5% and increase of .5% lol if those figures were actual figures for the election the Nats got 5.9% in 2004 that would be a swing away of 3.4% heheh feeble Nats…although this poll suggests a 4% swing away from the Liberal Party on primaries since 2004 enough for a small Rudd majority…

    Still one has to look for the best out of a bad situation and we did get up 2.5%…though probably within the margin of error lol 🙂

    I still expect if the election is called at around 55-45 the Coalition should make up about 2% within the first week…if there is no move back to the Government they’ll find it very hard to win.

  12. I back Rudd to knock Howard stone cold out of the campaign in about 2 weeks flat; and have him crying and blaming everyone but janette on the podium by 830pm on the 24th.

    As I said – bring it on.

    Crank up the shredders, team rodent.

  13. The Bolter is hilarious. On the day of the leadership spill after APEC, Bolter was on News Radio 100% certain that JWH would be gone by “this time tomorrow”.

  17. If Howard calls the election very soon then he will see Marie Bashir — making the sidelining of the real GG complete. No shopping centre openings, no photo ops with returning soldiers, no openings of festivals or games (all taken over by JHo) and now Jeffery won’t even be able to preside over the dissolution of Parliament.

    As Costello has learnt over 12 bitter years (along with an increasing number of p’d off voters), Howard views you as either one of the Used or Abused.

  19. Lefty E Says:
    October 12th, 2007 at 3:47 pm

    I back Rudd to knock Howard stone cold out of the campaign in about 2 weeks flat; and have him crying and blaming everyone but janette on the podium by 830pm on the 24th.

    Totally agree with you there, I think Rudd has been purposely holding back recently saving the best for a BIG and telling assault on Howard in the run home. Best is yet to come. 🙂

  20. Optimist good point, I was thinking that JWH would have told his MP’s not to front up and then Labor MP’s arrive only to go back to their electorates.

    Onimod I was thinking of putting it into the stock market and having it setup and looked after in a similar way just like the future fund.

  21. Andos the Great @ (163): “… 100% certain that JWH would be gone by “this time tomorrow””
    well, one thing is certain: Howard’s addiction to power is beyond Bolter’s imagination 🙂

  22. Judy:

    I had already posted the Perthnow link of the same story at 146 🙂

    But anyway, Howard is risking it by calling it for the 24th, with a possible Interest Rates rise tipped to be announced on Cup day blunting any govt attacks on Labor not being able to manage interest rates/the economy.

    Let’s face it, Howard is gone and Janette better start calling Grace Removals.

  23. Titanic? Pfft. They are soaring – there are wedges flying about, 5 point plans…The Hindenburg would be a more apt metaphor (with thanks to S. Colbert).

  24. That’s an interesting point Let it End. What would be Howard’s demeanour if he has to make a concession speech. Its hard to imagine him doing graceful. I hope its angry and frustrated. Have people already chosen what bottle they will be opening election night?

  25. Right on cue, in barges Pauline Hanson:

    “Does becoming a republic sever not only our sovereignty with the crown but also with the land? Will the land revert back to Native Title and where does that leave all Australians who are not of an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultural background?”

    Now, who’s sh*tting himself?

  28. nath Says:
    October 12th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
    Have people already chosen what bottle they will be opening election night?

    A dozen very nicely aged bottles of “Hill Of Grace” 🙂

  29. Well at least some people were able to get out of the Hindenburg (although badly burned many survived)…yes i did make reference to the Titanic but also that it has not sunk yet…

    I will bet Howard doesnt cry like that blubbering fool Fraser…i wonder how Billy McMahon’s concession speech was lol!

    How about Rudd’s concession speech, did we try hard…yes…did we win the election…no…will julia gillard take over…i hope not lol…

  30. Any guesses on how many debates Howard will want this time around?

    Before, he wanted none and got 1, but if he wants to show that Rudd is a policy lightweight, wouldn’t he be asking for 3 (or more)?

  33. Looks like Let It End is the party to be at.

    Glen,

    “How about Rudd’s concession speech, did we try hard…yes…did we win the election…no…will julia gillard take over…i hope not lol…”

    That’s actually funny.

  35. Howard will not have more debates than he absolutely has to, Rudd will cream him. Also, Howard will NOT make a concession speech, he will claim ill health and leave it to Costello.

  36. Since this election is all about “leadership teams” surely there should be a debate involving the whole front bench and shadow front bench. No?

  37. Bill McMahon’s concession speech was very dignified – The Age said it was the best thing he did as PM. I imagine Howard’s will be too. He is many things but he’s not a sook. He will make a good showing if he loses. It’s how he’ll behave if he wins that worries me…

  40. nath, i think leftyE’s on the money- he’ll be blubbering and blaming everyone but himself. i’ll be drinking in something fabulously intoxicating – the ratsak-ing of the rodent.

  41. Any small gains that Howard “might” gain from his “reconciliation” plan will probably be more than off-set by potentially more loss of votes from the far right to our favourite Qld pollie, Pauline.

    I had forgotten about her and virtually counted her out of any Senate consideration.

    With Howard’s plan, she might just be back in the running, albeat a long way behind.

    {The former One Nation leader Pauline Hanson says the people of Australia “need to think very seriously” about the implications of a referendum to include indigenous Australians in the preamble to the constitution.}
    – split-
    {Ms Hanson demanded to know whether the acknowledgement of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people as the traditional owners of the land would “impact on our rights”.

    “Does becoming a republic sever not only our sovereignty with the crown but also with the land? Will the land revert back to Native Title and where does that leave all Australians who are not of an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultural background?”}
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/hanson-enters-indigenous-debate/2007/10/12/1191696147487.html

    I think C/T and Howard & Co also left her out of their equasion. This stuff is right up her alley and you can bet she will take full advantage of it. Howard might be split in multiple ways trying to stay on track on this.

  42. Andos, that style of debate was suggested by Keating in ’96 and rejected by Howard. Keating, of course knew that his team would’ve demolished Downer and Costello. It’d certainly be history repeating should Howard request a ‘team debate’ at this election.

    I don’t see it happening.

  43. Rudd would never agree to a debate with any front bencher except Howard – it would seem to ‘demean’ his position as Opposition Leader and alternative PM.

    Costello v Swan may be a better match-up for the Coalition – but would either party go for it?

  47. Glen Says:
    October 12th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
    “i wonder how Billy McMahon’s concession speech was lol!”

    Quite reasonable, from what I remember. Something like, “he (Whitlam) has won the election and he’s won it well.”

  49. If Rudd wins i hope he doesnt have to call a DD election i hardly want more Greens, Family First, Xenophon and Hanson in the Senate ‘shudders’…

    Tony Abbott on election night if the Coalition wins….

    “ahhherr…ahhha..well…ahhh…Kevin Rudd lost ah and so ah we won oh and ahh the Howard Government is ah the Best Friend ahhh Medicare has ever had…eats babies…ahurrh.”

    Tony Abbott on election night if the Coalition loses….

    “ahhhha Union bosses…ahhh Republic…aurhhh Nicola Roxon…ahaurhh…Dr Death…Julia can i have your ahhurh phone number?…”

  50. Andos

    It should be a no holds barred cage match, last man/woman standing.

    Julia with her handbag full of knives – Big Joe with the crusher grip.

    Nelson with the helicopter spin…

    Until THE UNDERTAKER joins in. 8)

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