Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll is the first in three weeks that doesn’t put a six in front of Labor’s two-party preferred vote, which is down from 61 per cent to 57.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 53.5 per cent to 49.4 per cent and the Coalition’s up from 35.5 per cent to 38 per cent. The poll was conducted on the weekend, so very recent political developments would not have been a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

810 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  3. Kina Says:
    October 13th, 2007 at 12:15 am
    Turnbull will probably do a deal for him to be leader with a promise to hand over to Costello after one term. Im sure Costello will be happy with that.

    That’s a very cutting comment, Kina. Probably very accurate, though.
    Costello sure has proven vunerable to a sucker punch so far.

  6. And is breaking news a reliable source (ex BRW journo) claims another mortgage interest rate hike pre election is very much on the cards.

    Wonder how that would go down with the electorate this close to Christmas ?

    Costello will no doubt do all he can to stop this from happening-it would certainly put the final nail in the coffin for those who remember JWHs promises on mortgage rates, as if most need another reason to kick him out of office. There are several mortgage belt seats here in QLD that would not be happy with another slug to the family budget.

  8. SirEggo Says: Haven’t heard a peep out of him.

    He might be like the character in that movie about the corpse being ferried around by a group of young chaps.

    Propped up so they don’t have to go through another pre-selection process and choose another candidate.

  9. Glen #682 My opinion of Bishop’s policies doesn’t matter in the slightest, but there is no doubt that she was sold the mother of all bugger-ups when she inherited Dr Brendan’s research quality framework (RQF) idea. For people who are unfortunate enough to have to deal with red tape as part of their job, the general reaction to the detail of the RQF has been gobsmacking. Motherhood statements on teaching Aussie kiddies about the glories of Gallipoli and dah importenz ov spelingg foneticarly are her bread and butter and she tries to do it well but generally fails, considering her complete remove from the real lives of most parents of school aged kiddies. And whoever said earlier that she impresses the business community is full of whatever it is that she’s full of. It’s all blah, blah, blah from the minister. We know to expect blah and we get it. (Much like Hilary Clinton, to make a very broad comparison.)

  10. If the Coalition does get voted out and the interest rates continue to rise then the Coalition will still be able to say rates were lower under a Coalition government.

  12. It would be interesting to get the inside info on the availability of volunteer helpers to the coalition for the upcoming election. We have previously heard that they have resorted to paying students to hand out brochures etc in some electorates. I have heard from a former party member that they are a scarce commodity in the ACT electorates.
    In the ALP I am aware that they have been swamped by volunteers, and have already been working on allocating staff to all the booths.

  13. Of course John, it won’t make the words any less hollow.

    Just out of interest, at what stage do we start attributing economic successes/failures to one particular government. For instance, if interest rates rose in the first few weeks of a government it’d be crazy to attribute it to that government. However, what about 2 months after a new government? 6 months? Is it only after they pass their first budget? If so, do we say the first few interest rate decreases under Howard should be attributed to the Keating Government?

  15. [If the Coalition does get voted out and the interest rates continue to rise then the Coalition will still be able to say rates were lower under a Coalition government.]

    Rates will probably start coming down in the 2nd half of next year. It all depends on how well the U.S. economy does. The Australian government, Labor or Liberal, has very little to do with it.

  17. Glen,

    You are addicted to the word hubris. You use it every single day. If I removed the letter H from your keyboard you’d go into withdrawl symptoms. Face it your a ‘hubris’ junkie.

  18. [It would be interesting to get the inside info on the availability of volunteer helpers to the coalition for the upcoming election.]

    At the last NSW state election the Liberals had to pay temp workers to hand out how to vote cards.

  19. How is this for an interesting Liberal/National Party leadership team.

    Liberal Leader Julie Bishop
    Liberal Deputy Sophie Mirabella
    National Leader De-Anne Kelly
    National Deputy Kay Hull

    About as interesting as listening to a Marcel Marceau record.

    Making that lot electable is as likely as being able to polish a turd with Mr Sheen.

  20. Mention of turtles reminded me of that great 60s band The Turtles, so I just bought their biggest hit “Elinor” on iTunes – still resonates after nearly 40 years.

  22. In thrty years you will talk to your grand children about the Liberal government.

    They will ask “What is a Liberal?”

  25. Ctep #713 I have thought at what stage do we start attributing economic successes/failures to one particular government?

    I think economic success/failures are attributed to the Government of the day, its what happens on your watch that punters remember.

  27. If an election is called this weekend, has John Howard regained momentum?

    A key element in John Howard’s previous wins has been the sense that people knw who he is and what he stands for. If his commentson reconciliatio are to be given credibility, then he has just introduced substantial uncertainty to that understanding. I cant believe that can be a positive in winning back support.

    On the other hand there is an explanation that is totally consistent with people’s expectations and that is it’s another cynicl exercise by the “clever” politician. That’s hardly a vote winning exercise.

    I find myself in Possum’s camp on this.

    In my view the electorate has been wanting toget rid of John Howard since early 1998. In the election that year the seats fell the wrong way, although the majority of he vote was against him. Here was a Prime Minister who almost turned the two or three term victory in 96 into a one term aberration.

    In 2001 the trend was very clearly against him, but the magnitude of September 11 was more than any opposition could overcome. I suspect without the fear brought about by Sept 11, Tampa would have turned against him.

    Then in 2004, reading to kids was enough to move the electorate against him, but when the remainder of the mental instability becam blindingly obvious, once again Howard was saved.

    This is not the track record of a person who through their own skills wins elections. It’s morelike the Steve Bradbury of Australian politics (apologies to Steve for the comparison).

    The unsaisfied desire to remove John Howard as continud to build. I find it impossible to identify how this movement can be turned around in just a few weeks by actions that can be nothing more than cynical manipulative positions that are now expected by the voters.

    The noise of the current tactical skirmishes sould be seen as that. The strategic positions are well and truly set ad could now only be changed by a monumental externality.

  29. Hear RAAF have scheduled morning flight to Canberra. Let the game begin.

    Come all you good folk, free pork for all who tick this box.

  32. Shanahan (the grub, so you know my affiliation) in the Oz is saying that Howard will call it tomorrow. I think he will do it Sunday personally. The Unions will have to make a call on whether to hand out ‘pro ALP cards’ or just encourage a vote for the ALP in the House and anyone but Howard in the Senate. For all of the ALP bashing of Unions, they really have brought the ALP into the game on this election. I just hope Krudd remembers this…

  36. In the Shanahan article referenced by A.M. #730, Shanahan says Rudd needs to win 17 seats. I thought it was 16. Has something happened or is this Shanahan being his usual professional self.

  38. [Shanahan (the grub, so you know my affiliation) in the Oz is saying that Howard will call it tomorrow. ]

    According to Shanahan the election was going to be called on Septeber 1st. That should say enough about his credibility.

  39. “JOHN Howard is set to call a November 24 election tomorrow,”

    Gee I’m going to miss all those “Australian Government” adds on TV.

    Fairly confident that there will be other fascinating ones to take their place though.

    Looks like Shannahan is still in the “inner circle” of confidants though.

  42. [I thought it was 16. Has something happened or is this Shanahan being his usual professional self.]

    It’s actually only 15 now, because Katter and Windsor very strongly implied on Insiders that they would vote for Rudd if labor had 74 seats.

  46. The ’17 seats’ thing has been thrown around a lot by Liberal Party supporters who never explain what they mean when questioned. I presume they’re counting Calare as an extra seat to the government… which is completely irrelevant.

  48. {JOHN Howard is set to call a November 24 election tomorrow, riding on the momentum of his dramatic Aboriginal reconciliation turnaround, and his record on economic management and national security.}

    If that’s all Howard has got stuffed up his hat for the election, then keep your eyes peeled on “The” night for a 65 2PP at least. Goodbye John!

  50. Hahhaha there was a story on Sports tonight about camel racing. One of the riders was Pat Farmer. They mentioned he was a former ultra distance runner, but didn’t mention he happens to also be a member of the House of Representatives!

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