Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll is the first in three weeks that doesn’t put a six in front of Labor’s two-party preferred vote, which is down from 61 per cent to 57.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 53.5 per cent to 49.4 per cent and the Coalition’s up from 35.5 per cent to 38 per cent. The poll was conducted on the weekend, so very recent political developments would not have been a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

810 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Let’s say that Howard is sincere over reconciliation, and that a majority of voters believe this. How is this likely to change votes? Is anyone likely to shift from voting Labor because of this? Who are these people, and where do they live? Are the Libs thinking that since their stewardship of the economy hasn’t helped them this time around, that obviously voters want stroking, and that such a ‘soft’ issue is likely to turn some around?

    I’m sorry, but his announcement makes no sense to me at all…

  2. Extract from the Bulletin article:

    “Why shouldn’t we – and they be cynical?

    One of Howard strongest political traits has been his predictability, indeed even his penchant for boringness. In 2004 he saw off Mark Latham through a potent fear campaign, abundantly aided by the opposition leader himself, about the wannabe PM’s unpredictability.

    At the moment he would do the same with Kevin Rudd, on the back of an argument that this opposition leader is little more than a wolf in Howard’s clothing – a benign looking faux Tory clone who’ll reveal his real self only when ensconsed in The Lodge.

    Suddenly, however, it’s Howard unpredictability that’s grabbing the headlines. And on a social policy issue that Howard has worn as an ideological hair shirt throughout his prime ministership”

  3. BBC: Friday, 12 October 2007, 14:39 GMT 15:39 UK

    Burmese Prime Minister Soe Win has died in a military hospital after a long illness, state media said.

    Relatives said Gen Soe Win, 59 had been suffering from acute leukaemia. Since May his duties have been performed by an acting prime minister, Thein Sein.
    He was a real hardliner. I’m sure we’ll all miss he’s great compassion and humanity towards his people, particularly his kindness to Burma’s Monks.

  4. I’ve still got my parents’ copy of the White Album, although family folklore records that they lost the second record at a party (possibly held on the night of the 1969 election). The lying bastards tried to ease the blow by telling me it wasn’t any good. Thus did I endure early childhood bereft of Revolution 9 and Everybody’s Got Something To Hide Except Me And My Monkey.

  5. For what it’s worth, the online poll at The Bulletin is running 83% that Howards Aboriginal recognition policy is desperate and cynical.

  6. Looks like the 1.5% bounce in today’s/oops, yesterday’s Morgan poll has spurred the old shrub into action.

    All going well, he should be able to keep Labor’s numbers down to no more than 65% 2PP by election day if all goes according to the detailed plan that Crosby and Textor have painstakingly laid out for him.

  7. [How is this likely to change votes? Is anyone likely to shift from voting Labor because of this?]

    Why would they vote for Howard when Labor will work for reconcilliation, but without WorkChoices.

  8. And Kelly reassures the rednecks on Howard’s version of reconciliation;

    But don’t be fooled into thinking that Howard has rolled over. He may have started on the road to Damascus, but this is no conversion.

    Make an assessment on principle and the results are obvious. Howard still opposes any apology. He rejects customary law. He will never tolerate any treaty. He repudiates any suggestion of reconciliation as a negotiation between two tribes. He insists on reconciliation with practical outcomes and material progress.

    ..snip ..This referendum is coming. There is no doubt that Howard could carry it. But can Rudd?,25197,22576448-5013871,00.html

  9. Adam Says:
    October 13th, 2007 at 1:08 am
    What a piece of shameless journalistic prostitution.

    And I’ve noticed quite a lot of shameless journalistic “plagiarism” lately too.

    These people seem to be devoid of independent thought and too lazy to do any basic research themselves.

    Oh, for a decent “Media Watch” again.

  10. Howard won’t call the election this weekend.

    How do I know? Because only 6 days ago, when interviewed in Bennelong, he said the government still had more work to do first, and was going to continue making decisions “which are part of the process of government”, for the benefit of the Australian people.

    Six days obviously hasn’t made a difference, so I can only assume there’s no election announcement looming.

    Unless, of course, he’s a liar.

  11. Greg Roberts | October 13, 2007

    THE alleged rape victim at the centre of the so-called Shreddergate affair has hit out at people she claims are using her as a “political football”.

    Annette, a 33-year-old Brisbane woman who asked that her surname not be published, said people who had attempted to link her case to Shreddergate in an effort to damage Kevin Rudd had made no attempt to contact her.

    “They’re using me for politics and things that will help them, but I don’t think they care about me.”
    I think we would all find it difficult to believe that Piers Ackerman would use anyone for political purposes. Fine upstanding gentleman that he is.

  12. Interesting, Howard’s slogan “strong, prosperous, and secure” Is ripped off from Reagan / Bush 1984.

    Too easy for Labor to use these same slogans in their rehetoric on a regular basis about themselves. Diluting their usefulness for the Liberals.


    Feel good, feel safe words.

  13. 759
    Greeensborough Growler Says:
    October 13th, 2007 at 1:05 am
    Can we all get back to psphology please.

    I would if I knew what psphloogy was mate.

    Meantime, time for beddie byes, no rest for the wicked widdle bluebottle whose out offering Kevin 07 stickers and a wry smile all morning.

  14. After reading Kelly and Shamehahan in the GG and listening to Howard, Costello and Brandis today I am convinced the whole reconciliation tactic is to wedge labor on the “apology” side of it. The News Ltd rags have been running polls on whether an apology should be included and they are heavily favouring the “No” vote as are most of the bloggers on their sites. Dangerous gamble but he has no other cards so may as well dog whistle and see who hears it.

  15. [If Howard calls it Today, then it should make for an interesting “Insiders” on Sunday as well as the Channel 7 & 9 programs.]

    FWIW, Weekend Sunrise on Sunday is being broadcast from Perth’s Annual Telethon which to bring some political connection had as a guest one year (I think 1977), Malcolm Fraser who visited the pre-telecast Dollar Donor Day and there was footage of him riding the merry go round with the Kiddies and he and Tammie were shown with Fat Cat, also Bob Hawke as ACTU President was also a guest, and former Premier Brian Burke was involved via his role as a journalist as has Alan Carpenter in a similar role, as well as his official role in presenting a donation on behalf of the State Govt.

  16. I just noticed this speech by Wayne Swan. After reading it, I have one question: why is the Coalition trying to tear him to bits? Oh, I have another: why is ANYone willing to vote for a Government that attacks a person like this, let alone 42% of the population?

    Speech to the Sydney Institute
    3rd April 2007

    I want to start by thanking Gerard and Anne for extending this invitation to address the Sydney Institute, which has become one of the major forums of political debate in Australia today.

    Australia needs more organizations like the Sydney Institute because we need more debate about our future.

    We have a government whose best years are behind it and whose ideas have suddenly reached their use-by date.

    Fresh fields of knowledge and debate are opening up across exciting new areas that hold answers to our nation’s future.

    Intelligent and committed Australians are itching for a chance to make a difference. Australians in business, the public service, academia, and the community all have big contributions to make but the Government isn’t listening.

    Labor on the other hand is keen to listen to the best and brightest. For example we have already opened up a direct dialogue with business through our Council of Business Advisers, chaired by Sir Rod Eddington, and our recent National Climate Change Summit last weekend in Canberra.

    There’s a mood for change.

    It’s this fact – of people’s hopes for something better, rubbing up against the hard reality of a government living in the past – that is making this such an interesting time in our political cycle.

    For Labor the situation is obviously looking better than it has in recent years.

    Do I think this makes us a shoo-in to win the election, as some believe? No, I don’t.

    But we are determined to win. And we want to win it by getting the policy right and by getting the politics right.

    We don’t want it to be a personalized slanging match, impugning people’s reputations, and putting each other through what’s euphemistically called a “character test”.

    But we intend to stand up to the government. We’re not going to be bullied and pushed around.

    We’re going to refute the misrepresentations that the government makes about us.

    Let’s take the biggest misrepresentations of all: that we’re opposed to reform; that we’re too inexperienced to manage the economy; that we’re out of touch with the values and aspirations of mainstream Australia; and that we can’t be trusted with the future.

    When it comes to the future of the economy, far from taking a backward step, Labor will be staring the Government down.

    When it comes to building our economic future only one party recognises:

    we cannot aspire to the highest living standards without the most skilled and educated workforce;
    we cannot survive in an increasingly competitive global economy without world class infrastructure;
    we cannot enmesh further into the global economy without business having competitive tax and regulatory settings
    we cannot avert the damage that climate change would wreak on the Australian economy without clear, decisive and early action.
    Labor is in the future business.

    As one commentator wrote just this morning, we’ve become the constructive government; the Coalition have become the carping opposition.

    The rest of the speech can be found here:

    You may find it edifying reading.

  17. barbara @ # 569 said:

    “I reckon Tabitha is Julie Bishop (operating under her Stripper Name).”

    I don’t know about you guys but I think that you have pushed it a little too far Barbara.

    There is something about M/s Bishop that leads me to think that she showers in he swim suite and that she covers up all here mirrors so she cant see herself getting dressed.

    She gives off those vibes that say that she would rather die that take off her clothes in private let alone in public.

  18. I tend not to read Crikey anymore as everytime that I have it has seemed an on-line version of the GG. Maybe just bad timing. At least they should reveal the poltical background of its commentators. A little too much Howard flagg waving.

    Given the past 11 years of Howard’s neglect political commentators should have hammered his last minute ploy, using reconciliation [playing the race card again!] as purely cynical. There is no possible way in the world this was anything other than a vote buying exercise. To suggest it is a last minute conversion is adopting a position akin to religious faith, breft of reason and logic and facts.

    Howard has been dead against this for 11 years and is still agaist it. So the latest Crikey story is just rather too limp – giving Howard credits when he should have been whipped. It is bad enough that we have a right-wing paper press dominating Australia – we don’t need it on-line.

    Then again maybe I am unlucky and only go by when they are having a Howard headline day.

    Crikey reckons:
    “But we should also give John Howard the benefit of the doubt.”
    “John Howard is suggesting action. He’s admitting to the failings most white Australians share. He’s late, but at least he’s admitting them.”

  19. Daily Telegraph on-line poll results so far. Closely matching the average poll trend, primary voting figures.

    Will Howard’s vision put him back in the election race?

    Yes – It shows he has a definite plan 44% (29 votes)
    No – There’s too much ground to make up 55% (36 votes)
    Total votes: 65

    This poll started on Friday, October 12, 2007

  20. Let It End Says:
    October 13th, 2007 at 1:30 am
    After reading Kelly and Shamehahan in the GG and listening to Howard, Costello and Brandis today I am convinced the whole reconciliation tactic is to wedge labor on the “apology” side of it. The News Ltd rags have been running polls on whether an apology should be included and they are heavily favouring the “No” vote as are most of the bloggers on their sites. Dangerous gamble but he has no other cards so may as well dog whistle and see who hears it.

    If this is true it is collusion and a corruption of the media. The journalists, editor and politicians involved in the set-up should be paraded down the street in shame. Basically it is a perversion and all involved made accountable. Too bad we don’t have laws and prison sentences for this type of activity. Or do we. Basically it is just duping the public.

  21. This incident was one of Australia’s sickest days, one of shame for many Australians. And one that should be investigated and the politicians and public servants involved thrown in jail for gross inhumanity. Something useful for Piers to do.

    “KEVIN Andrews’ discrimination against African refugees for apparently not integrating into Australian society is reminiscent of the rhetoric and actions against boat people during the 2001 election campaign. Yet, it seems only few remember the sad consequences of such opportunistic slander against the weakest.”

  22. [Kina, well observed on Crikey. I considered subscribing, but found their leanings somewhat less than centre, for my money.]

    Most of the writers at Crikey voted for Mark Latham.

  23. There is only one thing you can trust Howard on and that’s his deviousness, he would never have belittled himself unless he absolutely believed he could split labor’s vote by doing it. A cunning rat doesn’t develop a conscience so you always have to look for the devil cleverly hidden behind whatever the rodent does, and it is always hidden.

    So what is the difference between his new sham position and labor’s policy? The only difference now is the “apology” and that is where he has been moving the debate by saying Labor can’t unite everyone on the issue. He has been highlighting that difference all day and what group does that split? That’s the target group he’s after, many of those that have deserted him over workchoices will accept his tokenism of preamble change but won’t accept labors policy of an “apology” and that’s where he’s trying to drive the wedge. If there was no wedge he would never have done it.

  24. Fraser and Whitlam unite

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    October 13, 2007

    MALCOLM FRASER and Gough Whitlam, the two former adversarial prime ministers, last night called for a review of the principle of ministerial responsibility, arguing that there was no more issue crucial to effective and responsible democracy.

    They said the Westminster system was under threat, and called on the political parties to address the issue in the election and set up an all-party inquiry. “This is an issue that transcends party politics,” they said in a joint statement.

    Mr Whitlam, Labor prime minister from 1972 to 1975, set up the last official review of the principles of ministerial accountability and Mr Fraser, who led to succeeding Liberal government, introduced reforms recommended by Dr H.C. Coombs.

    “The principles of ministerial accountability were developed for simpler times,” they said. “They did not anticipate the major changes that have occurred in recent years.”

    And what a rort this one isl Neutral ads about Work Choices? Not on your Kelly.

  25. Interesting news from Kingston.

    Kym Richardson chickened out of an IR debate and brought in Joe Hockey to debate local ALP candidate Amanda Rishworth. Apparently she held her own well.,22606,22576664-2682,00.html

    The very interesting thing is the reaction that Richardson got. He turned up to the debate that he was advertised to attend, and did not get a good reaction at all. Check out the youtube here:

  26. Shame?

    “at this stage we have identified less than $10,000 in a $3 million fund, which is an extremely small proportion. ”

    Reading todays murdoch papers it is hard to know there is an opposition party.

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