The past few days have seen a lot of discussion in the media about the state of play in all-important Queensland. On Monday, Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that the Liberals’ internal polling was worse in blue-ribbon Ryan than in any other Coalition-held Queensland seat, apart from Bonner. Liberal member Michael Johnson reportedly blames this on the government’s determination to solve western Brisbane’s traffic problems by building the Goodna bypass rather than upgrading the Ipswich Motorway, a decision made with a view to shoring up the Ipswich-based seat of Blair. As Graham Young puts it at Online Opinion: “People in Ipswich refer to the current motorway, which serves as their major link to Brisbane, as a carpark, and people in the western suburbs of Brisbane are happy to live in a quiet cul-de-sac and don’t want another link road with connections to them put through their area”. The Australian report also brings us the surprising news that Liberal polling has Gary Hardgrave leading in Moreton, held on a margin of 2.8 per cent.
Elsewhere, Labor strategists quoted by Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail say polling in regional Queensland points to “two party preferred votes north of 55 per cent”. Presumably this refers to the target marginals of Blair (5.7 per cent), Herbert (6.2 per cent), Flynn (7.7 per cent) and Hinkler (8.3 per cent). Also in the Courier-Mail, Madonna King says Liberal insiders “struggle to dispute” Labor talk that Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Flynn and even Leichhardt (margin 10.3 per cent) are “in the bag”, although Labor is apparently less confident about Longman and Petrie. King says three-cornered contests in Leichhardt and Flynn are an “electoral gift to Labor”, while Lisa Allen of the Financial Review quotes a Liberal source lamenting the departure of Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch and his “98 per cent name recognition in that electorate”.
Leopold Says:
October 10th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
I find the proposition that Flynn is a guaranteed Labor win difficult to swallow as well.
I haven’t seen anyone say that they consider Flynn a guaranteed Labor win.
I have seen commentators say though that it is a possible win. The fact that 5 towns in Flynn are mining towns and with a major industrial area around Gladstone, means that there is a potentially strong Labor vote from these areas which could more than counter the rural vote from the smaller centres.
Think “workchoices” and other Coalition policy areas of concern to voters and it looks like a strong possible.
This statement by Thommo is a bit of a givaway.
{People are very afraid we will have a labor Government by years end.}
I would say Ryan is at least as likely or more so than Flynn.
Edward StJohn
You probably have no concept how offensive your last post was. I would love to “get out more”.
What’s your excuse?
the electorate of Ryan has the second highest proportion of persons aged 15-24 in the nation, at 20.8 %. Given the high Labor vote amogst younger people shown in all of this year’s opinion polls, including the most recent AC Nielsen agregations, this could explain Ryan being so poor for the Libs.
In Ryan. a big wack of that 15-24 year age group is uni students.
Two of them are mine and they and their colleagues are doing it tough and not looking forward to their increased HECS payments when they enter the AWA workforce and poorer opportunities to save to get into unaffordable housing.
Scorpio – Labor insiders said it was ‘in the bag’ in one of the articles linked to by William.
Scorpio,
You disappoint me.
This site is reserved for poncy quasi Liberal acolytes who regurgitate only from the Liberal Party cheat sheets.
True experience is always under valued.
As a Queenslander in Moreton i believe it could be good for the alp. After Kevin Andrew’s announcement that made 1000 sudanese people rather upset.
I would also say that the only places that may have been affected by the amalgamations were noosa and redcliffe. Basically anyone who is ‘well off’ didn’t want ‘lower class’ areas coming into their council as it may have affected their housing price. (this is the reasoning behind it as it was explained to me by someone anyway).
Now here’s a headline I can go with.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Labor-taxes-to-reward-hard-workers-Swan/2007/10/10/1191695984186.html
Ryan is a big fat ripe Queensland fig ready to fall. It may be the real election night shocker (although there a lot of candidates for that title).
107
Greeensborough Growler Says:
Ok! I feel suitably chastised. I know what you mean though.
The polls are wrong, the Nationals vote is underrepresented etc, etc.
We can’t let the facts or a logical presentation get in the way of what some people want to believe or “hope” even though the available evidence to date totally contradicts their position.
It makes for entertaining reading at times though.
I think the PM needs to make an announcement about the election because we’ve now Jim Middleton on ABC news is sourcing the passenger list of the VIP flight provided by RAAF!! The journos either need an election or real news to report.
Queensland is going to landslide for our Kevvie… We are going to bash Howard so hard.
We Qld’ers love other Qld’ers, and Kevvie is our man. And the rodent is a cockroach through and through.
The reason why the Hume Highway hasn’t been upgraded is that there are no marginal seats to be won across that area.
In NSW, there’s Hume, Riverina and Farrer, whilst I believe it’s already a dual carriageway in Victoria. Why waste $2 billion securing already safe Coalition seats when you can save at least 1 marginal (Page), a semi-marginal (Cowper) and bring Richmond back into play (potentially)?
Leopold, Liberal sources say they will hold Eden Monaro, Bass and Braddon. They ask us to ignore all the other polling that’s been done for the past year and imagine that they’re in front in every important seat. I don’t believe them any more than I believe Labor will win Flynn.
We have a situation where John Howard is not releasing the internal polling to even those in his inner circle for fear it will be leaked. Again, what is so scary about the polling that it shouldn’t be leaked? They haven’t minded about the polls being leaked in past elections.
Seriously I just want this election to be over… drawing it out like this isn’t doing anyone any favours. We have both sides claiming to be in front where it counts… if the Liberals are so confident just call the thing, short campaign and then get on with governing.
More me-tooism from the Government on Kyoto2 today.
Jeez, they either say what the ALP says, or just do what Gunns want.
I live in Rudd’s electorate.
As Adam says, the people who actually know from ALP polls what is actually happening are saying nothing, why give the game away ?
Sufficed to say that my constant harrasment of a particular gentleman produced a small smile on the edge of his mouth when I asked petulantly if I would NOT be too far from the truth in speculating 6-10 seat gains in QLD.
The only seats I would discount as no chance or very little would be… never mind. Im not giving away a shilling to the Coalition either.
PS: The State of the Coalition in QLD at a State level is bloody awful, embarresing actually and they have virtually no money to toss at the marginals because the QLD business sector [apart from the diehard narrow minded rustys] have NO confidence of a Federal Coalition victory and are too embarressed to support wankers like Dr Flegg to the tune of a cup of coffee, let alone a serious tilt at Government right now, State or Federal.
What particular seats >? Who knows, well they are not going to tell me and if they are not saying much to Adam who is well known and respected up here, you can forget about any ‘leaks’ happening- a pleasant change to previous wankers ‘hubris’ gone mad when a certain chubby man from WA had a serious tilt at parking his ample frame on the comfort seat at Kirribilli.
On the news tonight in Sydney Howard accused Rudd of not taking responsibility and shifting the blame to someone else. Man, how RICH is that!
What about George”no stem cell research”Pell. He is supporting Rudd’s schools policy. Big Deal!!!
Howard won’t like this;
{CARDINAL George Pell, Australia’s most senior Catholic cleric, has endorsed federal Labor’s education policy.
Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd announced yesterday a Labor government would keep the socio-economic status (SES) model of funding private schools until December 2012.
The SES model would be used as a “minimum starting point†for funding to be negotiated between a Labor government and the states, Catholic and independent schools. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22562519-601,00.html
Regarding the Pacific Highway upgrading again, given the “on the run” nature of the anouncement, I wonder if they have even accurately costed it?
I just did some sums. Consider this:
– National highways seem to be costing around $5 million per lane-km at present (more in urban areas or with big bridges or tunnels)
– ABC news said there are over 400 km of two lanes remaining to be duplicated, so that is at least 800 lane-km to build, even assuming none of the existing road has to be rebuilt.
– Then the minimum cost of completing four lanes, assuming no inflation(!) and no need to rebuild old bits of existing road, is $4 billion. This also assumes no urban construction, bridges or tunnels are needed. (Anyone who has ever driven through the NSW north coast knows that is false.)
– Lets assume 50% of the existing road also needs to be rebuilt. (A lot of it is very old and winding). The total cost is then at least $6 billion in 2007 dollars i.e. even if there is NO INFLATION! In short, it can’t be done for $4.8 billion, let alone $2.4 billion. (For the record, I don’t know the details of the Pacific Highway, but am a practicing civil engineer and do this for a living.)
The point of the above is to say that the roads announcement is impossible to deliver as promised. It so obviously policy on the run that I must ask: is Howard just panicking?
Yes, Swing Lowe – what a great day for the pork barrel and wedge:
First 4 Items on the local 9 affiliate news:
1) $2.4b on the Pacific Hwy with the section in Page missing UNLESS the NSW government gives equal funding – subsidary stories about Vaile and Howard attacking the state government.
2) $18m to redevelope Grafton Hospital BUT ONLY if the NSW government places it under a community board
3)Vaile announces a bio-ethanol plant on the north coast – I missed place and time but I think it was $90M worth
4) Big Bob Baldwin announces the purchase of a rescue boat for Myall Lakes – the story was a bit confusing but I gather that most of the money was raised by the local community
It looks like all the coastal seats except Lyne are in play.
Speaking of Gunns; This may get more of a run and would surely leave a sour taste in a few mouths around the traps.
{JOHN Howard says there is nothing wrong with the Liberals accepting donations from Gunns Ltd at the same time as making key decisions on the company’s Tasmanian pulp mill.
With Gunns a donor to the Liberals before and after some past elections, the Prime Minister said yesterday he did not see any problem of public perception with taking donations from the company.
“I see no reason to rule out accepting donations from any company that is operating within the law,” he said.
“I see no reason to say ‘no’ to a particular company because it has been involved in an investment that has been in the news.
“The company has behaved in accordance with the law; the company is a major employer of Tasmanians. I think that is a good thing.”}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22560682-11949,00.html
Getting back to the topic… my parents-in-law live in the electorate of Ryan, have done for 40 years. They’re both in their 70’s and staunch lib supporters. Father–in-law has stated he is voting labor this time, because Howard has been in too long. The local member is under investigation by the AEC, so I can believe that they’re in trouble in Ryan. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they lost the seat.
Call the election please
Says: October 10th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
“Leopold, Liberal sources say they will hold Eden Monaro, Bass and Braddon. They ask us to ignore all the other polling that’s been done for the past year and imagine that they’re in front in every important seat. I don’t believe them any more than I believe Labor will win Flynn.”
Call the election please, do you really think any political party would lie? Let alone Honest John? I’m sure the average political advisor is as honest as a tax return. The Liberals internal poll results are not untrue, they are probably just “non-core polls”.
Hey Big O,
As compared to the NSW State Government, gimme me a break.
CTEP
Refusing to release internal polling to anyone allows Howard the get out “Why wasn’t I told we are going to lose 50 seats’. Mate, I thought I was in with a chance. I only read Dennis Shanahan in the Australian.
Think Children Overboard.
Think AWB
You know it makes sense.
Just curious about Ryan, is one of the reasons for a swing a change in the nature of the seat? I ask because I have noticed that a lot of seats in inner Sydney, thanks to redevelopment, are now home to a lot of young people paying high rent (and probably unable to afford to buy) rather than lder people living in expensive homes. I know Brisbane has been developing fast lately and, if the inner suburbs are redeveloping like Sydney, that could change the seat quite a lot. In other words, the total population of the seat may not have changed that uch, but they may eb different people.
Any comment from Brisbane residents?
Edward StJohn
Why don’t you give up on telling us what you are not. Telling us what you don’t really predict.
In fact why don’t you just give up?
Why will you not answer any question asked of you, you are like the Govt. still to answer questions on notice from 2004.
You just graduated from idiot to moron. 8)
socrates
SE Qld has about 234,000 new people since the last election.
Hello Bluebottle, fellow social worker! We’re small , but feisty. Are you actually located in Queenland? I ask because I’m originally from those sunny climes, and have all sorts of family in all sorts of interesting electorates.
Adelaide ch2 news led with a story of a local business {one of a few this company owns}who had their AWAs passed by the new fairness test when in reality they cut the workers wages by $70 per week, also the firm was hiring workers coming in on the new work visas, the workforce rejected the AWAs, ch2 made a big thing of it, workers and their views on show.
ruawake, of course Edward can choose to answer or not answer any question asked of him.
Usuaully, if someone doesn’t answer a question I’ve asked of them I just assume they can’t think of a good way to present an answer in a positive light.
In regard to the upcoming sitting week (if it’s happening) the government have around 4 pieces of legislation worth considering. Usually they’d be allowed to lapse off the notice paper and be reintroduced in the next parliament, but having them there at least allows them something to consider.
I don’t think we’ll be seeing any major pieces of new legislation introduced.
Judy,
You’ve been misled, that’s Sharran Burrow propaganda that the media swallowed.
CTEP, ruawake
I dont intend to answer personal questions, I am on here to discuss politics only.
yes scorpio, Ryan has the second highest proportion of people attending a tertiary institution in australia, at 14.7%
What up funsters.
ruawake says:
“SE Qld has about 234,000 new people since the last election.”
That’s a scary thought. We should be warning people off becoming Queenslanders not encouraging it. Don’t these people realise they are losing any claim to civilised status.
Ok Edward, I don’t believe I’ve asked you a personal question recently but that’s fine.
Of course, you could argue that politics is an inherently personal subject…
Unless its from BlindOptimist,
if JWH’s ID will be destroyed by losing the election, how does one analyse KR’s relationship to the ALP caucus in pyschotherapy terms –
a) Contempt
b) Expectation of Dear Leader style worship
c) Substitute children on the basis that he is the smartest one in the room
d) Desire to be loved
ESJ, any of those is acceptable for the leader of a political party. Nothing out of the ordinary there.
sorry ESJ it’s fact, i know one of the workers and i think i’ll take her word for it mate.
Judy
The fairness test on new workers, eg 457 visa holders, is a joke, because they are new workers, the position may also be new and there is nothing to compare it against.
Some Chinese 457 visa workers were being paid $16,000 a year until the unions brought it to attention.
true nath, what’s the pysch term “superego”
I usually despise the occasionally sycophantic praising of William, but that was a mighty fine run down on the state of play in the Deep North. thanks mate.
To expand on Blackbirds point (at 104) that “Ryan has the second highest proportion of persons aged 15-24 in the nation, at 20.8 %”
In terms of how that young vote could play out at an election, 18-24 year olds as a proportion of eligible voters in the electorate is pretty much the same at 20.85%.Ryan has had a large youngish population for a while as a result of the university.
According to the Crosby Textor June OzTrack33 research, in QLD the 18-24 age group was swinging 23.6% to the ALP.
Yo Arbie
what ever happened to the 350,000 disadvantaged by the “gap” between worstchoices and the “awaywithefairys test”
no fairness there i reckon but i suppose the Lib denialists will just deny it
They Always DO 🙁
Ruawake, thanks for the statistic about the 234,000 extra people in Qld. That is really an amazing statistic – it is more than an entire new Federal electorate in one term. Put another way, with 26 seats, if those 234,000 peope were spread evenly, that would mean at least 9000 new voters in every electorate, or about 4.5% of the average enrollment, who haven’t voted in it before. On top of the 10% or so of new voters aged 18 to 20, no wonder Qld is so volatile. It means almost 1 voter in seven in every electorate hasen’t voted in it before. So much for past trends.
Of course you have to wonder how many of those 234,000 people will be disenfranchised by the new electoral laws.
Bluebottle,
As a social worker working in New South Wales I was shocked to learn people going under WorkChoices earn $27 per week more than people working under the SACS system. Do you know why this is?
[true nath, what’s the pysch term “superegoâ€]
Do you honestly think contemporary psychology is based on the ideas of Freud?
Adam at 110
Choose the election night shocker sounds like a better game than ‘pick the government’.
Mine is still McPherson – but considering the change in the place its not really that much of a shocker.
Forde will be interesting if Hajnal Ban gets the rural gash vote and comes second – I reckon if that happens the ALP will win off the back of preferences from urban Lib voters that wont have a bar of the agrarian socialists.
Grey is out there as a possible shocker – but the problem with that as its been unmasked already.
Anyone have any out of the blue predictions for complete shockers?
The ‘why’ to go with it would be good too!