• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports the blue-ribbon Melbourne seats of Kooyong (9.8 per cent) and Goldstein (10.0 per cent) are in danger of falling “because John Howard has refused to move aside”. This is according to a “senior Liberal figure” who desribes the Prime Minister’s new position on the leadership as a “catastrophe” driven by “selfishness”, and believes “next Tuesday’s Newspoll should be a catalyst for a change”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin (5.0 per cent), McMillan (5.0 per cent), Corangamite (5.3 per cent), La Trobe (5.8 per cent) and McEwen (6.4 per cent) are rated “almost certain to go”, while Dunkley (9.4 per cent) and
Flinders (11.1 per cent) are “also under pressure”.
• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports that Labor polling in 10 New South Wales marginals pointed to swings of between 8 and 12 per cent, which was deemed so implausible it was redone – “only to return the same results”. The report also confirms no effort will be made to win seats from Labor, and says the Liberals have “started polling the blue-ribbon seat of North Sydney because of fears Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey could fall” (although similar noises could be heard during the 2004 campaign).
• Steve Lewis of The Australian reckons the Prime Minister’s announcement that he will hand over the reins to Peter Costello in an increasingly hypothetical next term of government amounts to him “sacrificing his own seat to save the Coalition”, since it will enable Maxine McKew to point to the certainty of a mid-term by-election. Significantly, the Prime Minister is now promising to serve a full term as member for Bennelong if the government is returned.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave “appears to have misled federal parliament” over the AFP’s inquiries into the “phantom staffer” and “printgate” affairs. An AFP spokesman is quoted saying a formal interview was requested with Hardgrave, which appears at odds with his statement in parliament on August 7: “I have not even been required for an interview by the AFP in the five-and-a-half months since this matter began”.
• Focus group sessions conducted by the Sydney Morning Herald, as reported by Peter Hartcher and Annabel Crabb, provide many pages of grim reading for the government and its supporters.
• Malcolm Mackerras tells the Canberra Times that the Greens’ Senate candidate in the ACT, former MLA Kerrie Tucker, is a “50-50” chance to lead the party to an unprecedented Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Venturing slightly off topic, Sean Parnell of The Australian reports from Queensland that “senior conservatives fear Anna Bligh will use a state electoral redistribution late next year as the trigger for an early election, consigning an ill-prepared Coalition to another three years in Opposition”.
HH,
I still love the part from the 1997 election coverage where Portillo gets beaten by Steven Twigg, who rolls his eyes when the returning officer announces the results.
Also, I know it wasn’t Thatcher who lost in 1997, but the similarities between the “Iron Lady” and the “Man of Steel” are remarkable (and entertaining).
Chris the problem with the major parties these days is that policy which matters goes out the window and is replaced with how we can stay in government and keep lobby groups quite… How we can get our superannuations and our benefits and pay perks… Once politics was about doing things now its about glibs and glabs look at Rudd going around the country at the moment with populist crap.. on poker machines, housing, supermarket prices but no policies to do anything about such problems…
Howard did the same in 1996 and nothing ever was done… Independent speaker i remember was one policy and nothing occurred… Our politicians sadly now rollover… and it is just pathetic…
That is why as previously on this site i have thought Latham would have good for this country… he actually wanted to do things and wasn’t frightened to say things.. Rudd has to consult minders and minders and i ask why do we pay these people…
Additionally i don’t believe for one minute that Costello, Abbot and Downer will lose their seats… People are wishing if they think that will occur
Joni: yes, I remember that moment well.
Such is the lot of politics: Stephen Twig lost the seat in the last UK election in 2005.
Latest polls in the UK suggest Gordon Brown will greatly increase Labour’s majority in the next election. The Conservative leader David Cameron is fast becoming a dud.
I remember the 1974 UK election, post the Miners’ Strike. The papers were unbelievably partisan. On the day of the election The Evening Standard’s front page was the one word, in the largest headline font “REVENGE”.
But Harold Wilson won narrowly. I think the turning point was when Ted “Grocer” Heath made some comment about the price of sausages.. Wilson puffed on his pipe and said “what would HE know about sausages?”
Well, as far as the Iron Lady is concerned, Howard is her biggest fan. Do I remember reading in the Errington & Van Olsen bio that he had a photo of himself with her? In his office I think. Hideous…
Given the problems of at least two of the three MPs in trouble in Queensland (Hardgrave and the others) if I was JWH, with his high moral and ethical standards (irony alert), I might consider forcing a resignation or two. The seats are almost certainly gone for the Libs and new cleanskin candidates cannot do any worse than lose. In addition I prove myself to be a decisive and honest leader. If this was to happen i would expect the announcement uesday morning.
Did everyone see Lady Thatcher visiting Gordon Brown at No 10 the other day? The Conservatives are furious with her LOL
This made me wonder if perhaps Malcolm Fraser might campaign with Rudd this time – wouldn’t that cause an almighty stir!
marky marky : I must have missed you initial post about recorded messages, where is Labor using these and what kind of message is it? (Or was this in the a recent state election?)
Has there been talk of a Galaxy poll for tomorrow, besides what Milne said on Insiders?
Also, any more of a certain substance hitting the fan at the party room meeting besides the rumour on Sky News? (Just got Foxtel, way more access to news on the election, thank god…)
Downer did come within a whisker of losing Mayo in 98, to a Democrat (wasn’t it the lead singer or Red Gum?). I think the only ministers that could lose seats are Howard, Turnbull and Brough (unless there are other where I haven’t heard any goss). Can’t see anyone else getting beat.
I ask a lot of questions in my posts, only because I am new to this amateur psephology caper. If people could answer them, I would be grateful
Possum, SirEggo :
If the US vote is any guide, I believe the solid conservative vote is limited to ~ 30%, with another 5% welded on. Given our electoral system is preferentially based and not easily rorted, without the scandals rocking the US Republicans – the best polling we can reasonably expect is 65/35 ALP/Coalition TPP nationally (individual seats may vary of course).
The old duck probably wanted to know what brown was doing in her house.
ive just seen the new business paid pro workplace ads– not very impressive, actually very ho hum!
The media will reignite rumour and counter claim regarding the two headed leadership question again after Newspoll, it sells newspapers and TV advertising space.
My pretty reliable Liberal source tells me
(1) Howard will NEVER budge from his position
(2) The others are too gutless or smart to mount an open mutiny againt him for fear of triggering a Ruddslide
(3) The election WILL be on Nov 3 and
(4) Those expecting to survive to make up the Opposition have been planning and jockeying for a post Howard-Costello political world for 6 months.
All the speculation about Howard resigning or being pushed or whatever is nothing more than media fodder that Labor are very happy to see continue ramping up whilst they prepare for the dirt campaign onslaught.
Of course there are no guarantees: the political landscape can change in an hour, but until that happens I will assume my information is as valid as any other speculations.
SirEggo, Downers seat did come down to preferences and it was the Red Gum singer who stood for the democrats if i remember right, the News Ltd poll comes out tomorrow night you’ll probably see it first on Lateline, apparently a Nielson poll will also be out this week but thats only on Bennelong.
http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,22427210-5005940,00.html
and maybe a galaxy poll
Actually BlueBottle, I believe you’re right in your assessment. Costello won’t challenge, and consign himself to being in opposition by that method, as that will mean he will never be PM.
The only way that Howard is going to go is by him retiring. I still think that’s a possibility, but a slim one.
Ones thing for sure though… The conservatives will not take the chance on an interest rate rise on Nov 7. Nov 3 is still looking like the date for the next election.
Doc at 158,
You’re probably right – the lowest primary vote level that the Coalition has ever received in Newspoll(as a monthly average) since 1986 were, in order:
May 2007: 35%
March 2007: 35.5%
June 1998: 35.5%
March 2001: 36%
July 1998: 36%
If you throw in a couple of points for preferences, the absolute worse case scenario is really about 62-63%.
Politics is like selling ice cream on a beach.
If you have only two sellers they both set up right at the centre of the beach otherwise they will get less than half the sales. If a specialist retailer (small party) sets up on the fringes the big retailers won’t move provided the specialist directs people to the closest one to them for general icecream.
If the specialist directs people to a retailer that is not the closest it gets interesting. So if One Nation directs to Labor or the Greens direct to Liberal the majors have to move closer to the small retailer so less people consider visiting them.
No matter what happens, eventually people on the north of the beach decide that they will try the waffle cones from the retailer in the south just for a change despite being happy with the supplier in the north.
What this all means is not important….but I should add I like coffee and vanilla flavours.
Blindoptimist at 119 says:
“the electoral equations seem to be very dynamic. do the newspoll quarterly data aggregate responses over the quarter? giving statistically sizable samples for individual seats?…”
The newspoll quarterly is an aggregate of 3 months worth of newspolls.It doesnt use individual seats but breaks it down into States, Male vs. Female, capital City vs non-Capital City, Marginal seats, safe government seats and safe opposition seats (where safe is defined as being held by a margin of 6% or more) plus age categories.
From that data combined with data like the Crosby Textor stuff, the leaked polling and the Census data we can do profane things with it and pull out something appoximating what we actually want – estimations of individual seats, or at least close appoximations thereof.
158
The Doctor Says:
September 16th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Possum, SirEggo :
If the US vote is any guide, the best polling we can reasonably expect is 65/35 ALP/Coalition TPP nationally (individual seats may vary of course)….
….
this implies the liberal primary vote would have to fall to about 27% at which point the labor primary vote would probably be about 57%. this is possible if the liberals persist with their bizarre “team/leadership” formula.
the most important things to watch this week are the satisfaction/dissatisfaction rankings for howard and the preferred pm numbers.
if these jump badly for howard, then he should think again about resigning.
Sir Eggo asks
“Has there been talk of a Galaxy poll for tomorrow, besides what Milne said on Insiders?”
Victorian ABC news just ran its Politics story firt up and, unless I misheard, said that a poll was due out tomorrow showing the governemnt’s position has slipped even further.
It then went on to completely aviod giving details of any figures, so its a bit disappointing
Anyway, it appears Colin Mcrea is dead after a helicopter crash, which is pretty bad news for world rally fans
This in the Smh about howard resigning
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/no-handover-howard/2007/09/16/1189881318727.html
And the libs are a soft serve ice cream without nuts.
possum,
re the quarterly polling, thanks: newspoll is different from morgan then…should be more revealing …could the libs have such info available to them now?
173
Eddie-C Says:
September 16th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
This in the Smh about howard resigning
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/no-handover-howard/2007/09/16/1189881318727.html
……
so howard rules out resignation. well, they are doomed!
Blind’O,
The Libs certainly do have such info available to them, with even more detail.
Their infamous Crosby Textor OzTrack series.
Chris Judd is off to Melbourne,don`t know which club.
More on the US election.
Save them in favourites.
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/politics_columnists.html?nid=roll_politicsblogs
L Duce – don’t bring up Judd – now that the Eagles are out of the finals – politics is the only great game left. At least my team might win this year. Well we did win last year in the other great game.
BB (163/4): Very interesting summary from your Lib source. Particularly the point about planning for a post Howard-Costello world.
It makes sense if they’re on the receiving end of an electoral rout to go with generational change. It seems to be working with Labor this time (failed with Latham of course), and it will work for the Libs if they can find a candidate who’ll be able to bring them back to the centre.
But hey, who said I’m a Liberal advisor? I hope they continue to roger themselves royally for the next several years. I don’t want ANY repeats of what we’ve just gone through in this country in recent times.
possum, thanks. i’m sure i’ll never understand john howard and the libs then. it must be plain as day even to them that they are going to get a hiding. it is really as if they have asked themselves: how can we make this a certain defeat? and then followed the script.
[ive just seen the new business paid pro workplace ads– not very impressive, actually very ho hum!]
These are the adverts that revert to humour because the ad company realised they were trying to defend a dog of a policy. Don’t mention the WorkChoices!
[SirEggo, Downers seat did come down to preferences and it was the Red Gum singer who stood for the democrats if i remember right]
This was 1998, back when my house was in the Mayo electorate (it is now in Sturt). Many ALP voters voted Democrat first to ensure preferences went from the ALP, and not the other way. I was very disappointed that Downer won.
I`ll take losing Judd for a tory wipeout,from a diehard Eagles fan.
Feilding (FFP) is slagging off at the government –
“Ripped off: No public hearings for bank fee inquiry”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22427596-2,00.html
Followed by a public challenge from Labor regarding election debates between Rudd and the leader of the coalition.
“Labor sets out demands for poll debate”
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=103854
Labor is showing the initiative whilst Nero fiddles. This will certainly pile on the pressure for Howard to call the election and, if there is essence to the leadership speculation, will place enormous pressure on the coalition to finalise the leadership issue. Any delay in calling the election will most likely be seen by the electorate as Howard being arrogant and they will make him pay.
If the monday poll(s?) aren’t bad, the next ones will be horrendous.
Tom.
We have a Liberal candidate in Lowe
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007seats/lowe.shtml
anyone know anything about him?
L Duce – as someone who breathes the blue and gold – judd and cousins can both go for a tory wipeout. kerr must stay!
Tim Gatrell (ALP Federal secretary) has requested the following conditions for the leaders debates:
“In his email to Mr Loughnane, Mr Gartrell said Labor was seeking a minimum of three leaders’ debates, all to be held on Sundays during the campaign to reach the widest possible audience.
The ALP wants the final debate to be held on the Sunday before polling day, and, with the growing influence of the web, wants all the debates to be broadcast live on the internet.
Labor wants at least one debate to involve on-line participation through a networking site such as YouTube, while another should include a live audience “session†with community members and leaders.
It also suggests that the ABC, as the national broadcaster, host at least one of the debates.”
Good luck with all of that. At best I think there will be 1 debate, held on channel 9 with Ray Martin as the host.
I hope Rudd forms an independent multi-partisan body to set these rules as law, rather than the P.M. being able to veto whatever conditions they don’t like.
Simon -the debates are always going to be determined by the person who needs them the least, whether PM or Opposition Leader. These demands are done to highlight Rudd’s strength. The PM will therefore go for a timetable and manner that suits him.
Even with a body, the parties have to agree – or send Louise Thornton to meet with Bruno Gianelli to agree on nothing.
It’s about time we had some West Wing references! Michael – you’re a champ! 🙂
I just saw one of the Climate Clever ads. Why does it say the government is pouring money in to clean coal. Haven’t they been bagging the ALP about trying to invest in to clean coal? I was surprised the ad didn’t say anything about looking in to investing about nuclear
Re (141),
“Rumor on Sky News: Howard will resign on Tuesday. The Liberals already know the next Newspoll will be horrendous for them(61:39 to Labor?). I’ll believe it when it happens – Janette loves that mansion at Kirribilli. And it’d be much more satisfying watching the rodent concede defeat, as I hurl abuse at the TV screen and get very drunk.”
Re. Janette – If Howard senses, finally, that his own goose is cooked, he won’t take her wishes into account, he will do the deed. He looks out for no one but himself in the final analysis, even if that means laying down the law to Janette.
Re. the rumor though – crap, if this turns out to be true, I won’t be home tuesday morning, will have to put my mobile on “discrete” and get someone to send me updates with a text message :(. I will be back home though by 1:30 or so and will be thoroughly annoyed if it comes down while I am not home to catch it live >;-(. Unlike some though, I don’t care how he goes down or when, seeing a resignation speech now or a concession speech later, I will celebrate 🙂
[Simon -the debates are always going to be determined by the person who needs them the least, whether PM or Opposition Leader. ]
I know how it works now, I’m suggesting it should be very different. I understand the P.M. has the bargaining strength when it comes to the debates, but I think this is stupid (along with letting the P.M. set the election date).
I even think there should be one debate with the leaders of the minor parties as well. At the moment that would be Lyn Allison, Bob Brown and Stephen Fielding.
The U.S. have a bipartisan comission that sets the rules well in advance of each general election. They have a more grown up democracy than us that accepts that it can’t just be the president, or party that holds congress, that sets the rules. We shouldn’t have to put up with the stupid debate about the debate that happens every federal election.
I also hope if Rudd wins that he makes Tony Windsor the Speaker. He couldn’t be worse than the clown in charge now.
“190
Possum Comitatus Says:
September 16th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
It’s about time we had some West Wing references! Michael – you’re a champ!”
Many’s the time I watched WestWing and loved to believe that the U.S. President would be like Jed Bartlett; unfortunately he’s not even as good as Jed Clampett.
The Commission on Presidential Debates is not really a bi-partisan organization. It was set up by the Republican and Democratic Parties to ensure they were the ones debating, although it probably takes on a life of its own. The process is not so lofty.
If the debates were set independently and a candidate didn’t think the debates would help them, they wouldn’t do it.
The debates are nice – but are they necessary? No.
[It was set up by the Republican and Democratic Parties to ensure they were the ones debating, although it probably takes on a life of its own. ]
They let Perrot debate in 1992, so it isn’t just a major party lock.
[The debates are nice – but are they necessary? No.]
I think the debate is necessary, there should be at least 3 with differing formats.
I know a lot of people who’s only political engagement every 3 years is watching the TV debate. They basically decide who to vote for based on that alone.
Simon, I think you are mistaken about the dynamic of the debates. The rule in the US is “never debate when you’re ahead.” Howard is behind, and it’s Howard who must hope for a break during the campaign, not Rudd. Thus it is Howard who has the need for as many debates as possible. It would suit Rudd very nicely to have no debates at all. In fact Rudd’s best strategy would be to spend the campaign in Noosa with his feet up, and let Howard run around like a chook with its head cut off trying to scape up votes. The only reason the Libs would not agree to Labor’s proposal is that they fear Rudd would chop Howard up in the debates. If they think that, they should dump him. But maybe they are beyond rational calculations now.
I just watched Howard trying to spin a wheel at a fete – pathetic. He has lost all his spin ability.
I reckon a 6’s / 3’s in Newspoll.
And a leadership debacle to follow.
If the opinion polls are right then there is an ALP landslide
if they are even within 5% of the figures then there will most certainly
be a change of Government
It is, given that ALP landslides do not occur very often , seemingly
improbable that they are correct as elections are normally close federally eg 2004 was approx 53/47 2pp
I would have said earlier that irrespective of the election result
MR Howard would hold Bennelong and Mr Turnbull would hold Wentworth
now I’m not sure. I think it is now highly likely there is a change of government
Not sure if this has been posted yet
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/polls-take-on-a-green-hue/2007/09/15/1189277049555.html