Category: Queensland Election 2012

Two days late with this one, but let the record note that a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents shows the LNP retaining a huge lead of 59-41 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 32 per cent on preferences. This does represent a narrowing on the previous such poll, conducted in mid-November, which had two-party at 62-38 and the primary votes at 28 per cent and 50 per cent. Anna Bligh has also had a slight improvement on personal ratings which are now almost respectable: 43 per cent approval (up two) and 50 per cent disapproval (down three). Campbell Newman however outstrips her with 48 per cent approval (up one) and 37 per cent disapproval (steady), and leads 49-40 as preferred premier (51-40 last time). The poll was conducted by phone on Tuesday and Wednesday nights and has a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.

Also:

Ashgrove (Labor 7.1%): Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk has ruled out standing aside to allow for Campbell Newman to return to his old job if he fails to win Ashgrove. This possibility was created by the new election timetable which pushes the council elections out to April 28. A troubling precedent for Newman is the difficulty long-term Labor lord mayor Clem Jones had trying to win state and federal seats in the early 1970s – old stagers recall that the Liberals did well telling voters they should vote against Jones because he was needed at city hall. Campbell Newman meanwhile has taken offence at Labor flyers linking him to the infamous newspaper column by Cairns LNP candidate Gavin King, in which King argues women who are raped while drunk are partly to blame for their own misfortune.

Dalrymple (LNP 15.8%): The Tablelands Advertiser reports that Rosa Lee Long, One Nation member for Tablelands from 2001 to 2009, says the LNP approached her to stand as its candidate. Long contested Dalrymple after Tablelands was abolished at the 2009 election, but was defeated by Shane Knuth, who had held the abolished Charters Towers for the LNP and has since jumped ship for Katter’s Australian Party. The LNP candidate is Liz Schmidt, who has a high profile locally as a livestock transport operator.

Nanango (Independent 2.9% versus LNP): The Australian reports the LNP is insisting it is on track to win both Dalrymple and Nanango, the latter to be contested by former test cricketer and local farmer Carl Rackemann following the retirement of long-serving independent Dorothy Pratt.

Mount Isa (Labor 5.7%): Labor on the other hand reportedly concedes Bob Katter’s son Robbie Katter will be “hard to beat” in Mount Isa, where he will attempt to unseat Labor’s Betty Kiernan. Robbie Katter is another who claims he was approached by LNP talent scouts. His father meanwhile is predicting his party will win at least 20 seats, which not too many would credit.

Logan (Labor 13.9%): LNP candidate Peter Anderson-Barr, a police sergeant, has withdrawn after media reports from 2004 were circulated regarding an incident in which he allegedly struck a person at the Surfers Paradise police post.

Mundingburra (Labor 6.6%): Former Thuringowa councillor David Moyle will run for Katter’s Australian Party after the withdrawal of their original candidate Jason Grigg. Moyle admits to having variously been a member of Labor, Liberal and the Nationals, and sought Nationals preselection for Thuringowa in 2006.

Anna Bligh has today announced the Queensland state election will be held on March 24, after the state’s floods inquiry was recalled to hear what Hedley Thomas of The Australian describes as “extraordinary new evidence that suggests the wrong strategy was used to manage Wivenhoe Dam days before Brisbane was inundated”.

Bligh explained today that it had been her intention to hold a poll on March 3, but she will now hold off until after the inquiry reports on March 16. This amounts to an effective campaign of over eight weeks (although she will not visit the Governor to officially call the election until February 19), which may be without precedent in Australia at least so far as past three or four decades are concerned. It had generally been thought that a long campaign would be in Bligh’s interests, as it allows an incumbent trailing by a long margin to hope that either the Opposition Leader or the party behind him might fracture under the pressure.

The state’s local government elections, previously due on March 31, will now be delayed until after Easter to allow for more clear air after the state election. It was reported earlier this month that the Electoral Commission of Queensland wanted a six months gap on either side of the council elections for logistical reasons.

For comprehensive details on each of the state’s 89 electorates, look no further than the Poll Bludger’s election guide.

The Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat guide to the Queensland election is open for business. I also have an overall review of the situation at Crikey. New election-related points of interest:

• The LNP is looking for a new candidate for the must-win Gold Coast seat of Broadwater after Richard Towson today announced he would stand aside after blowing 0.07 during a random breath test on Friday night. The seat is held by Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft on a margin of 2.0 per cent.

• Labor’s candidate to succeed retiring Neil Roberts in the inner northern Brisbane seat of Nudgee, held on a margin of 14.3 per cent, Leanne Linard, a ministerial adviser to Roberts who has previously worked for Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser. A local resident and colleague of Roberts in the Labor Unity faction, Linard won preselection without opposition after Roberts announced his retirement early last month.

• Julie Attwood, who holds Mount Ommaney for Labor on a margin of 4.8 per cent, today announced she would bow out at the coming election, citing personal reasons.

• ReachTel has published yet another automated phone poll for the match of the round in Ashgrove, which shows little change on the early December poll with Campbell Newman leading Kate Jones about 53-47 if you preference flows from the 2009 election are applied (ReachTel’s respondent allocation “if you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose” question seems especially dubious to me given that it overlooks optional preferential voting). Apart from unrealistically low levels of support for the Greens (around 7 per cent compared with 12.4 per cent in 2009), ReachTel’s results have looked plausible in Ashgrove, but outlandish in many of the other seats it has targeted.