9.42pm. As for my own predictions: going on the current ABC computer verdict, I made five wrong calls all pointing in the same direction: Labor leads in Gaven (3.1 per cent), Mudgeeraba (3.5 per cent), Barron River (6.0 per cent), Bundaberg (0.3 per cent), Toowoomba North (11.1 per cent). My last minute amendments ran 2-1 against me, perhaps 3-0 if Liddy Clark holds on in Clayfield.
9.30pm. I’m going out for a smoke. I’ll come back in 10 minutes and try to take a look at the bigger picture.
9.29pm. ABC site still no good for live audio.
9.24pm. Unless I am mistaken, the ABC computer has moved Currumbin from “LIB retain” to “LIB ahead”. However, Jann Stuckey is more than 2 per cent ahead after a full preference count and is surely home.
9.21pm. Here’s one that’s slipped under the radar: the Nationals are cutting it very fine in Burdekin, so no sophomore surge for Rosemary Menkens who won the seat in 2004 from Labor member Steve Rodgers, who is their candidate again this time. Menkens leads 47.1 per cent to 44.8 per cent on the primary vote: 51.2-48.8 after preferences. She should get home, but the ABC computer has revised it down from “NAT retain” to “NAT ahead”.
9.16pm. According to the ECQ, a Labor lead of 245 primary votes in Bundaberg turns into a 210 vote deficit after preferences. In answer to Geoff R’s query in comments, these are real figures and not projections.
9.09pm. News Radio’s have ended their coverage and the local radio broadcast on the ABC website is just producing a whining sound.
9.05pm. Antony Green in comments says he expects Liz Cunningham to hold on in Gladstone.
9.04pm. Noteworthy swings in otherwise unnoteworthy seats. Big swings to Labor in Townsville: 4.9 per cent in Mundingburra and 9.8 per cent in Thuringowa. Good 4.3 per cent swing to Labor in previously marginal Cairns. 8.8 per cent to the Nationals in Whitsunday, a correction after the Dan van Blarcom situation in 2004. Good 4.2 per cent swing to Labor in Springwood. Very strong showing for One Nation’s last survivor Rosa Lee Long in Tablelands, up 4.2 per cent on the primary vote. Good result for Labor’s Tim Mulherin in Mackay, with a 4.8 per cent swing – commenter Geoff Robinson comments on the distinction with Nationals-held Charters Towers which went 8.4 per cent the other way. 5.0 per cent swing against Peter Beattie in Brisbane Central, the second such swing in a row. 4.8 per cent swing to Labor in Nationals-held Mirani. Very good 5.0 per cent swing to Labor in Ipswich West, given the retirement of sitting member Don Livingstone. Another sophomore surge for Rob Messenger in Burnett: back with a 4.4 per cent swing. Huge win for independent Chris Foley in Maryborough with 70.2 per cent of the primary vote, up 5.3 per cent. Very good 4.0 per cent swing to Christine Smith in Burleigh and 4.6 per cent in Inala, where Anastacia Palaszczuk is replacing father Henry. 4.8 per cent swing against Lawrence Springborg in Southern Downs.
8.53pm. Antony Green in comments: “I’d call Chatsworth (for Labor), but can’t because my manual over-ride command won’t work. Only Brisbane City Hall booth to come”.
8.52pm. Since I last commented on Currumbin, the ABC computer has downgraded it from “Liberal gain” to “Liberal ahead’. Member Jann Stuckey leads 47.8 per cent to 42.8 per cent on the primary vote with 72 per cent counted, so probably final for the night. The Greens’ 9.4 per cent would have to flow extremely solidly to make the difference here – Stuckey looks safe to me.
8.50pm. Reader Andrew Owens, an astute observer of these things, points out the Liz Cunningham is not home and dry in Gladstone, although the ABC computer is calling it for her. She is marginally behind on the primary vote, but there’s also 6.0 per cent for the Nationals candidate and John Wanna says he expect a very disciplined flow to Cunningham.
8.49pm. John Wanna reckons Noosa is still in doubt, but I think he’s operating under the full-preferential voting assumption that getting ahead of Labor should be enough.
8.48pm. Dolly Pratt’s primary vote lead in Nanango has widened since I last commented – from roughly 40-all to 44.0 per cent to 39.7 per cent.
8.45pm. Labor did it easily in Redcliffe to complete the by-election revenge hat-trick. 74 per cent counted, they lead 49.5 per cent to 39.7 per cent.
8.43pm. Still only 39 per cent in from Gaven, but the booths are a pretty representative sample of the seat and Labor has a very big lead: 50.1 per cent to 41.2 per cent on the primary vote.
8.36pm. The ABC computer isn’t yet calling it for Labor in Chatsworth, but they lead by 1.6 per cent on the ABC projection and 1.3 per cent on the progressive preference count, which with 76.6 per cent counted (presumably final for the night) should be enough.
8.33pm. Going on the primary vote, I would have thought Labor would get up in Bundaberg – they lead 45.1 per cent to 43.9 per cent on the primary vote. But the Nationals are in fact slightly ahead on the progressive preference count, which is not lagging too far behind the primary vote count (of which there is 70 per cent counted).
8.30pm. The raw primary vote figures for Labor in Clayfield do not look at all good: 67.3 per cent counted, they trail 38.6 per cent to 46.8 per cent. But quite a few preferences have been counted and they only trail 5475 to 5366.
8.29pm. Beattie’s speech was a little on the brief side.
8.28pm. For what it’s worth, the Greens did not direct preferences to Labor in Robina.
8.26pm. Beattie claiming victory.
8.26pm. 61.4 per cent in Robina and it’s very close indeed. New Liberal candidate Ray Stevens has 46.9 per cent to Labor’s 44.5 per cent, which means its up to the Greens’ 8.5 per cent on preferences.
8.23pm. My first good look at Gympie. 54.1 per cent counted. Only 7.4 per cent for Elisa Roberts. Huge lead for the Nationals on the primary vote: 49.0 per cent, daylight second, ex-Labor independent Rae Gate third on 13.1 per cent. Not sure why this should be such a surprise.
8.22pm. John Wanna reckons Indooroopilly is still doubtful, but I do believe Labor have held it.
8.20pm. Still only 35.0 per cent counted in Noosa. Cate Molloy has taken second place, but she trails Liberal on the primary vote 36.7 per cent to 25.6 per cent. Labor preferences would have to flow very heavily to Molloy to get her ahead – it’s technically possible that there will indeed be unusual preference behaviour in this seat.
8.18pm. Let’s take those one at a time. A clear Liberal win in Kawana with a 7.5 per cent swing. As anticipated, there was a swing to the Liberals across the Sunshine Coast.
8.16pm. The ABC projections in brief: Libs gain Kawana and Noosa. Nats gain Gympie. Libs ahead in Robina and Clayfield. Labor ahead in Bundaberg and Chatsworth. Nats ahead in Lockyer. Labor gains Gaven and Redcliffe.
8.13pm. A late surprise in Lockyer – the Nationals are only ahead 1.1 per cent after 44 per cent counted, based on Antony Green’s preference estimate.
8.10pm. Poor old Lawrence is reduced to once again claiming that they have cut margins in important places.
8.03pm. Lawrence Springborg conceding defeat already.
8.01pm. Unexpectedly strong Labor win in Keppel – 6.0 per cent swing with 59 per cent counted.
7.59pm. Still only 36 per cent counted in Clayfield: after Antony Green’s preference estimate, the Liberals lead 1.3 per cent.
7.57pm. Little cheer goes up in the tally room as the ABC Radio presenter declared Caltabiano’s defeat. It may have been unrelated though. Perhaps we could ask Graham Young and Mark Bahnisch.
7.56pm. 2.6 per cent swing to Labor in Toowoomba North after 30 per cent counted. I didn’t have much luck calling to Toowoomba seats last time either.
7.54pm. Sorry, called that wrong. Big swing to LABOR in Robina, consistent with the Quinn effect. He’s only 1.2 per cent ahead.
7.53pm. Caltabiano gone in Chatsworth. Big swing to the Liberals in Robina, contrary to expectations – elsewhere commentators are talking about the “Bob Quinn effect” damaging the Coalition on the Gold Coast.
7.52pm. No swing at all in Aspley, a good win for Labor member Bonny Barry.
7.51pm. A swing of a few per cent to Labor in all Cairns seats, including the supposedly endangered Mulgrave.
7.50pm. A big 8.8 per cent swing against Labor in Whitsunday, but this is a correction after the Dan van Blarcom affair at the 2004 election. Not enough to cost Labor the seat.
7.49pm. Labor 1.3 per cent ahead in Cleveland with 40 per cent – they would be doing very badly to lose from there.
7.48pm. ABC has a 4.4 per cent swing to Labor in Barron River, an outstanding result.
7.47pm. The ABC computer says 61 Labor seats, which sounds a little high. We can say this much: Labor has had a very good win.
7.44pm. The ABC tells us both candidates in Nanango are on roughly 40 per cent. Progressive count after preferences has Dolly Pratt 4.1 per cent ahead so unless there’s some preference quirk here, she should hold. Indooroopilly being called for Labor.
7.43pm. 20.9 per cent counted in Noosa and the ABC has it as a Liberal gain, as I expected. Cate Molloy and Labor have about a quarter of the vote each and little change on the primary vote from 2004.
7.41pm. ABC gives Labor a 1.8 per cent lead in Indooroopilly with 57 per cent counted, which should be enough.
7.40pm. Elisa Roberts discussing the result on ABC Radio. Sounds like an honest Aussie sheila.
7.39pm. Santoro talking up Whitsunday, but he may be grasping at straws from early figures.
7.38pm. Very tight in Bundaberg, Labor slightly ahead.
7.36pm. If I hear right, John Mickel is saying Labor are a big show of beating independent Liz Cunningham in Gladstone, but his figures seem to be lagging far behind the ABC which has it as Independent retain.
7.35pm. Not clear to me why the ABC computer has Chatsworth as an ALP gain – the booth results are only slightly different from the by-election, and I would have thought it would have been very close.
7.33pm. ABC computer now has Clayfield as Liberal ahead.
7.28pm. Labor apparently home in Redcliffe.
7.21pm. ABC computer now has Chatsworth as an ALP gain. More on that shortly. Very early figures for Mudgeeraba but Labor apparently holding up.
7.20pm. ABC computer has Gaven as a Labor gain, but from only 6.3 per cent of the vote.
7.18pm. None of the Nanango booths are from Kingaroy, which you would expect to be big on the Bjelke-Petersen brand name. Kawana obviously lost to Labor.
7.17pm. ABC computer tipping Nanango for John Bjelke-Petersen.
7.16pm. Only 7.3 per cent counted, but a very close outcome looms in Indooroopilly.
7.15pm. Labor primary vote up in Cairns and holding in Hervey Bay, and “encouraging news” on Redcliffe.
7.15pm. A lot of Labor crowing already on ABC Radio.
7.14pm. The ABC computer has retracted its call of Labor holding Clayfield.
7.13pm. Liberals ahead in Cleveland.
7.12pm. There are four booths in from Chatsworth: in each case both parties’ minor votes are up very slightly on the by-election.
7.09pm. Gympie looking good for the Nationals, as I always expected.
7.07pm. Reader Marcus notes that the ABC computer’s Chatsworth call comes despite a primary vote of 54-39 in Labor’s favour. A lot of talk on the radio about this being from the Belmont booths.
7.02pm. Another Green machine news flash: Chatsworth called for the Liberals. Broadwater for Labor.
7.00pm. News flash: Antony Green’s computer calls Clayfield, Keppel and Pumicestone for Labor. More evidence of the anticipated swing to the Liberals on the Sunshine Coast courtesy of Caloundra.
6.59pm. Still only one booth in from Nanango.
6.56pm. Antony Green’s computer calls Currumbin for the Liberals.
6.54pm. Santo Santoro reports a huge swing to the Liberals in Kawana. This was Labor has been thought very unlikely to retain, regardless of what else happens.
6.51pm. Labor reportedly ahead in Chatsworth, although there’s only one booth up: Labor’s primary vote there is similar to 2004, which is a very good sign for them. The Nationals have picked up a big swing in Charters Towers, so things can’t be that calamitous for them.
6.49pm. John Mickel says scruitineers report small swings to Labor in Whitsunday; Labor’s primary vote “holding” in Toowoomba North. On early figures, Kawana falling to Liberal; Labor just in front in Clayfield; line-ball in Indooroopilly.
6.46pm. The Mulgrave results are an real eye-opener. There are big lifts in the Labor vote both in the good Labor booth of Innisfail and the bad one of Miriwinni.
6.43pm. News flash: Antony Green’s calculations on the ABC site call Mulgrave for Labor.
6.42pm. John Mickel on the ABC says there is a big swing to Labor in one booth in Toowoomba North. Still too early to read much in to any of this, but the trend of an anti-Nationals swing in small booths is worth keeping an eye on.
6.42pm. ABC Radio says a 2.7 per cent against Rob Messenger in Burnett, but the ABC website says for.
6.40pm. On the other hand, a 6.4 per cent swing to the Nationals in Whitsunday. The booths here are the touristy ones – Hamilton Island and Hayman Island. Worth noting that this was a disaster zone for the Nationals last time due to their candidate.
6.38pm. The ABC results show an interesting early pattern: swings to Labor in Nationals seats. In each case it’s a very small number, which means these will be naturally inclining Nationals booths in rural areas.
6.35pm. One booth in Broadwater shows a big swing to Labor.
6.34pm. The ABC Radio presenters are getting excited about the first tiny booth in from Nanango, which has a strong showing for John Bjelke-Petersen.
6.07pm. I said live blogging would start at 6pm, so here I am, although I won’t have much to say for about half an hour. Those of you with no idea can acquire one by reading the list of key seats directly below, or the similar outline at Currumbin2Cook.The latter site is busting my live election blogging monopoly this evening, with Graham Young and Mark Bahnisch reporting live from the tally room. Newcomers to the magic of the internet are advised that they can have both open and the same time and effortlessly switch between the two.