If there is any substance to the notion that the Coalition has staged a late fightback, Gary Morgan will emerge from an election with bragging rights for the first time in many a long year. What is most remarkable about yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll is how very different it is from every other Morgan Queensland poll of the past two terms. The Labor primary vote of 45 per cent is 4 per cent lower than their previous worst Morgan result since the 2001 election, while the Coalition’s 39 per cent is 3 per cent higher than their previous best. However, the results are not the only thing that distinguishes this survey from its predecessors. Firstly, the sample of 604 compares with the 1,500 normally polled by Morgan; secondly, the survey was conducted by phone rather than the usual face-to-face. Gary Morgan himself remains a vocal critic of phone polling, but nonetheless displayed characteristic confidence in his figures when speaking with Madonna King on ABC Radio yesterday.
Newspoll on the other hand has produced identical primary vote figures to those published yesterday by Galaxy Research, an agency founded by former Newspoll general manager David Briggs. Both have Labor on 48 per cent and the Coalition on 38 per cent, although Newspoll produced a two-party result of 55-45 compared with Galaxy’s 56.5-43.5. Newspoll provides at least some support for the idea of a Coalition recovery since last week, when it recorded Labor’s primary vote at 52 per cent. The following chart shows the Labor primary vote in the main agencies’ polls over the past two months; note that this only amounts to two polls in Morgan’s case.
One last poll before closing: yesterday’s Gold Coast Bulletin featured a survey by Thomas Direct of 433 voters in Currumbin. This is the paper’s second such poll of the campaign, the other being published two weeks ago. At the time I was unable to get hold of a detailed breakdown of the results, so here are figures from both polls after distribution of the undecided:
|Jann Stuckey (Liberal)||48||49|
|Michael Riordan (Labor)||44||44|
|Inge Light (Greens)||8||7|