Not quite sure what the deal is with the Glug website ("an eccentric mix of wine, drinks, politics, food, sport and other interesting things", apparently), but I am grateful to it for making my particular obsession in life seem a little less unusual. In conjunction with Crikey, the site is running a competition that requires participants to nominate Labor’s percentage chance of victory in each of the state’s 89 electorates. Prizes include "superior Glug wines", Crikey subscriptions and "incredible bragging rights". Crikey’s Richard Farmer tells us that "early Crikey contest polling gives Labor the following percentage chance of victory in the 89 individual seats":
Albert 91%; Algester 93%, Ashgrove 91%, Aspley 91%, Barron River 65%, Beaudesert 16%, Brisbane Central 95%, Broadwater 65%, Bulimba 92%, Bundaberg 62%, Bundamba 93%, Burdekin 26%, Burleigh 74%, Burnett 19%, Cairns 82%, Callide 10%, Caloundra 39%, Capalaba 93%, Charters Towers 22%, Chatsworth 69%, Clayfield 54%, Cleveland 82%, Cook 88%, Cunningham 13%, Currumbin 48%, Darling Downs 10%, Everton 92%, Ferny Grove 94%, Fitzroy 91%, Gaven 39%, Gladstone 19%, Glass House 83%, Greenslopes 91%, Gregory 9%, Gympie 13%, Hervey Bay 75%, Hinchinbrook 23%, Inala 95%, Indooroopilly 62%, Ipswich 94%, Ipswich West 87%, Kallangur 91%, Kawana 54%, Keppel 73%, Kurwongbah 91%, Lockyer 14%, Logan 93%, Lytton 96%, Mackay 91%, Mansfield 88%, Maroochydore 19%, Maryborough 11%, Mirani 8%, Moggill 20%, Mount Coottha 91%, Mount Gravatt 91%, Mount Isa 89%, Mount Ommaney 87%, Mudgeeraba 52%, Mulgrave 81%, Mundingburra 85%, Murrumba 91%, Nanango 9%, Nicklin 9%, Noosa 38%, Nudgee 91%, Pumicestone 78%, Redcliffe 56%, Redlands 89%, Robina 22%, Rockhampton 93%, Sandgate 90%, South Brisbane 95%, Southern Downs 11%, Southport 80%, Springwood 88%, Stafford 93%, Stretton 91%, Surfers Paradise 13%, Tablelands 9%, Thuringowa 86%, Toowoomba North 66%, Toowoomba South 13%, Townsville 86%, Warrego 13%, Waterford 92%, Whitsunday 84%, Woodridge 95%, Yeerongpilly 92%.
The lightweights among you might prefer to try the old-fashioned method of tipping the total number of Labor seats through Centrebet, which is currently offering the shortest odds on 58. As my more dedicated readers will already know, my own personal tips are available for perusal and ridicule on the Poll Bludger election guide. My current estimation is that the Coalition will hold all the seats it won in 2004; the Liberals will gain Kawana and Mudgeeraba from Labor and Noosa from Labor-turned-independent MP Cate Molloy; the Nationals will gain Bundaberg from Labor and Gympie from independent "candidate" (last I heard) Elisa Roberts; the Liberals will lose their by-election gains of Chatsworth and Redcliffe to Labor, whereas the Nationals will hold Gaven. It turns out that my findings are in almost perfect accord with those of Glug (which differs from me only in that it has Labor’s odds in Mudgeeraba at over 50 per cent, and then just barely), and my projection of Labor seats is exactly equal to Sportsbet’s. Final tally: Labor 58, Nationals 18, Liberal 8, independent 4, One Nation 1.
In other news, it only came to my attention yesterday that Sky News is running a program called "Queensland Votes 2006" at 9.30pm EST each night this week. Last night’s instalment featured interviews with Bruce Flegg, Barnaby Joyce and Sean Parnell of The Australian. The highlight for mine was host David Speers putting it to Flegg that Liberal members (I leave it to you to imagine which ones) had told him the party’s polling had it on track to win at least 20 seats before the August 7 leadership change.