Courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, the latest bi-monthly Newspoll shows the executioner’s axe continuing to hang over the head of the Labor government in New South Wales, although they have just slightly out-performed their all-time low in the previous poll. The Coalition’s two-party lead is down from 63-37 to 61-39, although the primary vote changes are fairly minor: Labor up one to 24 per cent, the Coalition down one to 45 per cent, the Greens down two to 15 per cent and others up two to 16 per cent. Barry O’Farrell has taken a six point hit on approval to 42 per cent after what looks like an aberrant result last time, and his disapproval is up one to 33 per cent. Kristina Keneally is down on both approval (three points to 35 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 49 per cent). The “uncommitted” result for each is up substantially. Keneally has slightly narrowed the gap on preferred premier, from 42-35 to 40-35.
Agree with your predictions BoP, although I am slightly meaner than you by a few % and a few seats. I didnt want to say it to GG et al. but ALP could get as high as 20 seats (all depends on how many people realise they dont need to number all the boxes!
The just vote 1 Lib may make sense in terms of getting the OPV message across actually. However, I think the broader message that you cannot punish ALP by voting Green is important. GG et al. are right that if the 50% of ALP voters who are not voting ALP 1 this time vote Greens 1 and ALP above Libs, then yes the greens win lots of seats, but the ALP could win the rest of the left ledger seats.
Judging by the By-elections this wont happen, but it is ALP’s last hope.
So come on GG, give us your prediction so we can see who is right and who is out of touch….
Ron
[Balleau tapped into reality that Greens is toxic to middle australien voters]
The breakdown of the Green voting in the recent Penrith byelection is interesting for this view (depending what “middle Australia” is…)
The second table in this Antony Green post shows the Greens’ first preference vote by booth – the blue mountains ones are 20%+ (out voting the ALP!), but in the more hard core ALP areas, the Green vote is single digit/low double figures only (I note that Antony’s own analysis in this post focuses on the weakness of the Green preference flow to ALP)
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/preference-flows-for-the-penrith-byelection.html
And the overall results were not really that great for Greens in my view, particularly for a byelection:
First preferences
ALP – 24.2%
GRN + 6.6
LIB + 18.9
2PP 25.7% (!)
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2010/penrith/result.htm
Suggests to me that the main move will be ALP to LIB and secondarily, GRN preference to ALP will be weaker, not stronger (noting NSW OPV facilitates high exhaustion – 65% of GRN in the byelection)
Labor would be nuts to put the Greens last. Greens voters would just vote 1 Greens. I think it will be closer than people are predicting. Elections always seen to tighten as they approach. Labor will still get wiped though.
thanks for that post , brought back some memorys of that by electon tho most of tose memories not sweet ones , were interesting figures Given a 24% swing against Labor and Liberals got 19% of it as you highlited just indicates how toxic Greens is to 90% of australians , (also feel few xception booths mainly showed a higher greens to liberal pref flow and diff Lib type demografs Some nice places up that ways but need deep pockets
Diogenous ,
there is far more for labor to gain overall putting th Greens last not least being to demonstrate there is a hard radical uneconamic idealogogy and that , and thats notwithstanding over 50% exhaust anyway so pain limited pain
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/no-safety-fears-for-premier-kristina-keneally/story-e6freuy9-1225984613449
Apparently Keneally is worried that she might have a stalker and someone might be trying to “off” her
Of course she is correct…. it is the NSW voters