Another day, another assortment of news relevant to the federal election horse race. Note also the post below by Adrian Beaumont on today’s local elections in the UK. Here goes:
• The Australian reports Vivian Lobo, Liberal National Party candidate for the Brisbane seat of Lilley, lives in the up-market suburb of Windsor in the neighbouring electorate of Brisbane, but is enrolled within the electorate in a “run-down” and “obviously deserted” property in Lilley’s Everton Park. Lobo told the paper he had “signed a lease in Everton Park with the intention to move in straight away”, but had been “delayed” due to campaign commitments. The Labor-held seat is the most marginal in Queensland, being held by Anika Wells on a margin of 0.6%. Making a false claim for enrolment carries a maximum penalty of 12 months’ imprisonment.
• The Jacqui Lambie Network is directing preferences to Bridget Archer, who holds Bass for the Liberals on a 0.4% margin, but to Labor in the neighbouring seats of Braddon and Lyons, respectively held for the Liberals by Gavin Pearce on 3.1% and Labor by Brian Mitchell on 5.2%. Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports “strategists are privately confident that Labor will hold Lyons”; Max Maddison of The Australian reports Liberal sources were “confident of holding Braddon”. Labor has the JLN second on its Senate how-to-vote card, and the JLN has Labor third behind Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
• Matt Wade of the Age/Herald reports on a University of New South Wales analysis identifying seats where substantial numbers of mortgage payers are in financial stress. Top of the list is La Trobe in outer Melbourne on 72.3%, followed by Werriwa in Sydney (Labor 5.5%) on 70.7%, the Hunter region seat of Paterson (Labor 5.0%) on 65.0%, Pearce in northern Perth (Liberal 5.2%) on 63.2%, Bass in northern Tasmania (Liberal 0.4%) on 62.9% and Greenway in Sydney (Labor 2.8%) on 62.6%.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian notes Labor is “using specifically tailored advertising for the WA market” (I can report that not one Labor advertisement I have seen on Perth television could have been screened nationally), and that the party it outspending the Liberals on Facebook advertising in the state by three to one, “as the central ALP cedes control to the state party office and makes a major commitment to digital advertising”.
That poll in Boothby mentioned earlier, it would seem to make Sturt suddenly interesting too.
If some of you are more than ALP members though, I wouldn’t mind knowing what the position is on:
1. Coal mines? Is the party for or against? Phasing them out or open to approving new ones? Does it seriously depend on the electorate Albo is in… like it definitely did for Shorten in 2019?
2. Operation Sovereign Borders? Albo says you are for it, but not TPVs.. but OSB specifies TPVs doesn’t it? (also you guys ALL said it wouldn’t work the stop the boats but it did so why the hell are you trying to tinker with policy that works?? Can you do better than zero arrivals? DO you ever learn your lessons?). If you have turnbacks, do you need detention?
3. Can you define a woman (yes, asking the same of the LNP.. no favouritism here). If not, what the hell is Plibersek doing with a Women’s portfolio. If you can’t define Infrastructure you can’t have an Infrastructure Portfolio, right?? One day Albo says ‘only women have babies’, then he can’t define a woman… ‘each can choose their identity’? Huh?
That is a start.
Despite getting 10% of the vote and having a geographically clustered voter base the greens have managed one single seat federally. If Labor would step aside in innere city areas the greens would win more seats but Labor never will
The Nationals are one of the big two in most of the seats they win and have decades of intergenerational tribal loyalties as political capital.
I understand your anxiety, blue pill. It looks increasingly likely we are on the verge of the fourth time since WW2 Labor wins its way into government. This time at the expense of the most corrupt incompetent and reactionary government during that period.
It’s really important right now for progressives to hold the blow torch to Labor
FMD
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/06/nobody-home/comment-page-17/#comment-3894043
The Greens don`t need the ALP to step aside to win more seats. They just need to increase their vote in their potential gains.
As one who appreciates a secular way of life, the following (covert?) funding by the religious right is disturbing.
“ Here are a few key facts about the National Christian Foundation:
The Chronicle of Philanthropy reports that in 2013, the NCF was the twelfth largest philanthropy in America that raises funds from private sources.
-The NCF gave away approximately $670,000,000 in grants in 2013 and $601,401,875 in 2012.
-From 2001-2012, the National Christian Foundation gave $163,384,998 to leading anti-LGBT organizations. These include Focus on the Family, the Family Research Council, the American Family Association, the Alliance Defending Freedom (formerly Alliance Defense Fund), Campus Crusade for Christ (aka CRU), the National Organization for Marriage, and the Alliance for Marriage.
-From 2001-2012, the NCF gave grants totaling $24,822,793 to at least ten organizations listed by the Southern Poverty Law Center as hate groups.
-From 2001-2012, the NCF offered $7,525,701 in grants to organizations promoting creationism and “intelligent design.”
-From 2001-2012, NCF gave $144,916,675 to organizations that deny climate change, some of which depict efforts to combat global warming as part of a satanic conspiracy aimed at creating a one-world government.”
https://twocare.org/the-gathering-the-religious-rights-cash-cow/
Re Blue Pill
Threatening you?
Please show me where?
Wasn’t going to respond, but no, you are not getting away with that rubbish.
The fact you responded that way says a lot….?
@bluepill.
I’ll bite. I’m not an ALP fanboy – I’m a Marxist-Leninist and believe wholeheartedly that a nation or society built on an economic base of exploitation cannot seriously create a superstructure worthy of representing the true will of the majority of the people. In fact, it does the opposite. Nor do I believe that bourgeoise parties like the ALP/LNP/UAP/OneNation/Greens, who have absolutely zero interest in addressing the core economic inequalities inherent in a capitalist system, have a snowball’s chance in Hell of ever truly effecting the real, necessary change needed to advance us past the point of short-term greed and self-destruction.
I find it difficult to outline in any great detail your demands. They cover three separate topics of such great complexity that a paragraph or two is wholly insufficient to fully explain them, especially from a Marxist perspective. But you asked, so here you go.
1. Against opening new ones – the workers at existing plants must be provided for and supported in the transition to renewables. Forget the moralising around climate change in this regard. We have a responsibility to protect workers from foreseeable declines in ANY industry, and the writing is on the wall for coal. If we don’t control the outcomes now the outcomes in the future will control us.
2. Absolutely against Operation Sovereign Borders. Spending money on policing borders and visiting violence on desperate, vulnerable people is insanity, and does nothing to address the vast majority of “illegals” who come here by plane. God, even saying that made me feel dirty.
3. …an adult, female human? Honestly, this question is so disingenuous I don’t know why I’m bothering with it, as we all know what you’re getting at. Can you please define an intersex person? What constitutes intersex? Can you explain the variety of sex chromosomes and how they impact on a person’s gender identification, as well as primary and secondary sex characteristics? Believe me, I’m not on-board with the whole liberal-feminist obsession with personal identity – I think it ignores the true material considerations at the heart of class relations at best, and actively undermines truly revolutionary attempts to liberate oppressed groups by elevating selected minorities into inherently unjust hierarchies as symbolic window dressing at worst. But I fully accept transgender/transsexual/intersex people – how they choose to identify themselves has sweet bugger all to do with me or my wellbeing.
There. Got the attention you were craving? Have at it.
@ Tom the first and best.
Yes but it’s a hard thing to do, lack of representation saps momentum from minor parties and the big two parties still have huge unthinking tribal voter bases.
I’ll speak for myself, I am not a member of the ALP or of any other party.
1. Coal mines? Phase out ASAP. If we are as dependent upon coal as many claim, we urgently need to diversify even if climate weren’t a problem.
2a. Operation Sovereign Borders? Shut down. Talk to Indonesia about going after and shutting down the criminal gangs running people-smuggling, drug-running and other bad stuff. Yes, that won’t be easy but that’s what we have to do. Our whole approach to “Boats“ reflects very poorly on our nation, especially on those exploiting the issue.
2b. Albo says you are for [TPVs] Albo never asked me. I’m against them..
2c. why the hell are you trying to tinker with policy that works?? Just because it works doesn’t mean that it’s moral, not that that would bother the Right.
2d. Can you do better than zero arrivals? See previous point.
3a. Can you define a woman? Yes.
3b. … what the hell is Plibersek doing with a Women’s portfolio? Albo deemed her to the best available for the job.
3c. If you can’t define Infrastructure you can’t have an Infrastructure Portfolio, right?? One day Albo says ‘only women have babies’, then he can’t define a woman… ‘each can choose their identity’? Huh? Distraction, culture-war crap. Why is Morrison afraid of a corruption watchdog with teeth? Why is he only pretending to address Global Heating? Why won’t he reveal what he intends to cut or privatise should he win? And why is he such a dick?
bluepill @ #851 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 9:33 pm
1. Labor has been clear, it won’t oppose new coal mines, but it won’t offer support to make it viable in the first place. Demand in Australia for coal will continue to decline as existing coal power plants close.
2. He has never said that he supports all elements of Sovereign Borders. He has indicated that boat turnbacks will continue, but apart from that little else has been commited to. You can keep the basic framework, but there is a lot of latitude in how you treat and deal with them. A good start would be to treat them with respect and as a person.
3. Not all women can have babies, this is just a subset of women and there are may other subsets because as we now understand gender is not binary.
Am hoping that the decision on Roe vs Wade backfires on the Republicans.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/06/republicans-midterm-elections-roe-v-wade-senate-house
Is anyone else really disapointed by this election campaign.
I kinda feel cheated by morrison (more than usual). He’s such a coward, and the media is so feral everything is about nothing.
Credit to Albo for having the endurance.
Welcome Sne.
Just be aware that if your user name is in blue then it is a link to whatever your personal details may be ie email etc.
Don’t tick….
“Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.”
Otherwise, it will, as I have found out.
Thank you Frednk for that advice, another one I haven’t seen for a while.
Again, hope all is well.
south @ #862 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 10:16 pm
Were you hoping to be entertained?
@bluepill. Your three questions for long time ALP leaning peoples. As one myself and a long time lurker here…. I’ll bite
1. Coal Mines. I would say the long term transition should be away from Coal. This isn’t controversial, it’s the economic reality. What I dislike is the current mob pushing against market realities to keep Coal going. Markets are generally better at making these transitions than government, something the Liberal party seems to have abandoned in this area
2. Boats, TPVs etc. Frankly this has never really been high on my list of concerns when voting. Honestly, the fact that it’s being brought up at all in this election kinda reeks of desperation from the Libs to me. In any case, the next wave of immigrants are going to be coming from Eastern Europe not the Middle East. I suspect this will be the last chance to blow this particular dog whistle
3. Trans Women….. why would I even care? When I was WFH last year waiting for a multi-GB database to download for work while fires ripped through the north east of Perth and our PM was apparently not in a race to procure vaccinations for us? To be frank, our PMs position on trans women wasn’t particularly high on my list of concerns
Barney in Tanjung Bunga,
I was hoping Morrison had more fight in him. So the defeat would be greater.
I honestly think the limp LNP campaign is due to the fact that a lot of them are probably going to face prison terms or extreme public disgrace when the FICAC bomb goes off.
south @ #866 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 10:22 pm
Why would you hope that?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga,
Because 8 weeks is a lot of gotcha questions about nothing.
And the future is complex and requires thought and discussion. And the people who should be having those discussion arn’t
At least Abbot and Turnbull both had the ego to fight. Morrison only bully’s so he wont’ risk anything.
I honestly don’t know how the Americans can put up with 12 month election campaigns. It must drive them insane.
The Australian polity seems to be increasingly divided, the combined major party vote is falling with each election and I wonder how long each of the major parties can hold on to each of their fairly disparate voter bases. We’ve already seen a decent chunk of what were solid Labor voters previously migrate to the Greens and it looks like we’re seeing something similar affecting the Liberals with the rise of ‘Voices for’ candidates. Minority parliaments look like they’ll become increasingly more common.
This change looks like a more immediately pressing problem for the Liberals though, I can’t see how a sensible, evidence-based group of independents who in the past would have been moderate Liberals would actually be able to support the current unscrupulous Liberal party, and any possible deal is made more remote by the Libs needing to negotiate with the Nationals, the terms of which they’d be unwilling to disclose.
If the Liberals lose seats to teals they lose a lot of financial backing and wealthier voters, but maybe they could then drop some pro-wealth policies and go more right wing populist and attract more socially conservative voters across the spectrum? I don’t think this is a particularly smart strategy because Australians overall seem more pragmatic than dogmatic, but Morrison seems to think abandoning moderates will work fine at this election. I don’t think it will work. If they lose 4+ heartland seats to teals then they can’t form majority govt and it risks losing a large chunk of moderate voters that are less likely to return to the Liberals in future elections.
For the liberal party expelling Turnbull would be a good idea would ensure every teal wins.
south @ #868 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 10:33 pm
Election campaigns have never been that.
What you’re talking about is what a competent Government does during their term to drive change by selling it to the electorate.
@MJ
I think some people are letting there hearts rule their heads.The Tories have won nine of the last eleven federal elections, come within a bees dick of ten. Last time they were chucked out they nearly got back in one term and won a landslide at their second attempt, it’s a bit early to be writing their obituary.
If they lose they will have to lick their wounds in opposition for a while and do a bit of naval gazing, they have had a good run.On the other hand if Labor happen to fall short it will be wrist slitting time for them.
All the pressure is on Labor here, anything short of victory and at the federal level they will have to completely reinvent themselves because in their current form you would have to conclude they are unelectable outside of an economic meltdown.Albanese knows it which is why he seems so nervous at times.
Voodoo you raise some fair points, though I think it’s a genuine concern for the Liberals that they appear to be losing support in what were previously heartland seats. It suggests not all is well, and you wonder what a federal ICAC might reveal.
@mj
No doubt they are concerned but if they lose they will look at where they lost and set about trying to rectify it.There will be some blood spilt along the way as hardline ideologues try to fight a last stand but you don’t have their kind of historic electoral success over seventy five years if you are not an adaptable organism.
I don’t think you should predict the outcome of this election based at what has happened in the past.
Thankfully we have never before had a Morrison Government that has included some of the most corrupt and useless Ministers imaginable. When people say this is the worst government since federation they are right. If people are asked to list the achievements of the Morrison Government, they can’t, because there are none.
Swinging voters know this.
Voodoo Blues:
The last 11 Federal elections were 1990, 1993, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019.
The Coalition won 7 of the last 11; not 9. They lost the 2PP at one of the elections they won, and won one of the elections by only one seat.
But let’s pick another 11 elections: 1983, 1984, 1987, 1990, 1993, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010. The Coalition only won 4 of those (including one where they lost the 2PP).
Yes, they’ve done well over the last few decades, but things are not quite as bleak as the picture you paint.
@mj
You are correct though in our electoral system the art is to try to hold together very disparate coalitions of voters with often conflicting demands to win enough seats to form government.
The Tories have a better record at it federally than Labor because the media feeds the economic management narrative at the electorate 365 days of the year.It helps plaster over cracks in their coalition of voters.
Some people who will vote Labor at state level just will not go there federally because they fear Labor are a risk of trashing the economy.It’s why federal elections are never easy for Labor especially from opposition.
It’s significant for the future that Sinn Fein is now the largest party on both sides of the British border in Ireland.
New thread.
it seems coal is anishue canivan says no net 0 morrison says hill comit to it but with no detail