Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, and full candidate lists have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission and incorporated into my election guide. There are 1203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1056 in 2019, an average of around eight per seat. The United Australia Party is again contesting every seat, and One Nation, which contested 15 seats in 2016 and 59 in 2019, is now contesting every seat but Kennedy and Higgins. Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates, the Australian Federation Party with 61 and Animal Justice with 48.
Conversely, the impact of the 2016 reforms continue to whittle away at the number of micro-parties running for the Senate: the number of columns on Senate ballot papers is down from 35 to 23 in New South Wales, 31 to 26 in Victoria, 26 to 25 in Queensland, 23 to 22 in Western Australia, 16 to 14 in Tasmania and nine to eight in the Northern Territory, though it’s up from 16 to 22 in South Australia and seven to 11 in the Australian Capital Territory.
Other news:
• With the announcement of nominations, it is confirmed that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the safe Liberal seat of Flinders as an independent at last month’s South Australian state election, will run against Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the corresponding seat of Grey.
• Shortly after the publication of candidate details, the Australian Electoral Commission issued a statement noting that Rodney Culleton, who leads the Senate ticket of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, appeared to be an undischarged bankrupt, contrary to a declaration he signed when he nominated. It has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Culleton was elected as One Nation’s Senator for Western Australia at the 2016 double dissolution, but was found to be ineligible the following February on the grounds that he was awaiting sentencing for a minor criminal conviction at the time of his nomination, which came two months after he was declared bankrupt.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review cites unspecified sources who rate that the strongest possibilities for teal independents are Wentworth, North Sydney and, “to a slightly lesser extent”, Goldstein. A Liberal source is quoted saying these independents would be less at risk of backing a Labor government than Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott proved to be after 2010, having “developed their own network of voters”.
• Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”. Similarly, Labor strategists cited by Tony Wright of the Age/Herald merely “hope” they can win Hasluck.
bluepillsays:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:51 pm
Come on guys, seriously, you have had three years in the wilderness to think up better insults for me.
—
Psssst.
The Matrix, which is where you get your name from, was two Trans women’s allegory about the experience of being Trans, and was full of anti-capitalist imagery and language.
You may want to reconsider… well, just about everything, considering that you are clearly posting here to try to troll people (whatever you believe, you clearly aren’t posting because you think you’ll convince anyone to change their mind)… but in this case, your choice to invoke the exact wrong imagery for what you want to achieve.
To quickly respond to most of your points in basically one fell swoop… most of the points you bring up are minor ones, relatively speaking. There haven’t been boats to turn back for quite some time (and Labor have a better policy on what to do with people who are stuck in offshore detention than the Liberals do), the main issue with the Solomons is government inaction (not the fact that it’s China), Albanese has taken a non-position on Trans sporting (which makes sense, because it follows the “it should be decided by the experts” reasoning, since the law already handles that).
On Coal, Labor has taken an attitude of “only if it stacks up environmentally”, which is a reasonable balance between L/NP “give us all the coal you’ve got” attitude and Greens’ “no more coal” attitude.
As for seats, considering that opinion polls (which aren’t showing the telltale signs of herding that happened in 2019) have Labor up about 5% on a 2PP, and there are 15 Lib seats with margins of 5% or less vs Labor, it seems to me that Labor are in a pretty solid position to take government.
But more than any of that, no single issue would be a deciding factor for most people – nobody here will claim Labor is perfect, they’ll just claim they’re the best of the options by a fair distance (among those who favour Labor strongly, of course).
And before you try to counter by claiming I’m, oh, I don’t know, down the rabbit hole into Wonderland (because I’m sure you want to use other imagery that doesn’t at all connect with your views), note that I’m not a rusted-on Labor voter. I’m a Labor/Greens swing voter. Both parties are imperfect. Both parties are far better than the Coalition as it currently stands.
I’d give you a list of all of the Coalition’s faults, but I don’t have the stamina to write a comment the length of War and Peace, just to demonstrate to you how bad they are (because it would take that much to document it all).
As a bit of a spoiler, they’ve mismanaged the economy to the point that interest rates have been at emergency levels for an extended period to try to kick-start it, they’ve driven up debt massively (before Covid), they’ve sent international opinion regarding Australia to depths never before seen, and their corruption has been so extreme that even the thought of risking the other parties giving their corruption commission the hint of teeth scared them so much they had to break the election promise entirely (and then tried to blame Labor for it…).
Oh no, Albanese was a little vague on a few issues. They’re clearly equally bad, right?
Sky News’s Jonathan Lea, who of course made a big name for himself leading up to the 2019 election for his campaign-altering grilling of Bill Shorten on his climate change costings, was the latest media member of the Albo bus contingent to come down with the virus on the weekend.
That’s what you get for shouting, Jonno. 😀
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11:43 pm
@upnorth
Seriously thinking of changing my avatar name to “lobotomised shithead” for the campaign
==========================
Well I was under the gun last night for my Avatar so calling yiourself a “lobotomised shithead” would draw the pack away from me! Go for it digger.
===================================
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11:44 pm
Upnorth,
Why else choose a woman eye candy candidate? The spoonful of sugar to help the bitter medicine of bigotry go down.
=========================
In the most “disgutsing way”
Yes Doctor I concur.
Many a time I’ve gone to get some basics and ended up with a microwave and a lawnmower (true story).
Why not if mower $75 and microwave $100.
Bought six years ago and both going well.
Dandy Murray says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11:42 pm
“Why all the shouting?”
bluepill has got the blood flowing?
====================
Randy Dandy
Been There says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11:49 pm
Yes Doctor I concur.
Many a time I’ve gone to get some basics and ended up with a microwave and a lawnmower (true story).
Why not if mower $75 and microwave $100.
Bought six years ago and both going well.
==============================
Like going to Bunnings for a screw……….
Anyone who can afford to disregard what the coalition government would PREFER to do to Medicare, Centrelink and NDIS, suggests they obviously don’t need to rely on them. Same as coalition government preferences on wages and working conditions.
@Barney in Tanjung Bunga
(Being Anzac day tomorrow, and the Solomon Islands being in focus, can I recommend a mega sad film to everyone. The Thin Red Line. Whilst American, it really captures the waste that is war.)
*The Thin Red Line was mostly shot in Queensland in the Daintree Rainforest and Bramston Beach.*
I don’t think going on about Deves’ looks helps anything except the narrative of misogynistic Labor trolls tbh. She’s not some instagram model or vamp posing seductively to lure the stupid blokes vote and it isn’t what is wrong with her. Much like some quarters going the fat jokes about Clive Palmer almost constantly (just check out the Guardian comments sometime when Clive is in the news) is not helping.
Meanwhile, is it just me or is it Scotty M being racist by making the criticism of Liu about her race? Would he accuse Labor of racism for making factual claims against, say, Scott himself? No, he’s probably just call them lies or fake news or whatever.
Meanwhile, I have to say, I’m not a fan of Daniel Andrews’ “we had an audit, it’s called an election” line, we wouldn’t get Frydenberg or Angus Taylor get away with that and it shouldn’t slip past just because it’s Dan. Bad Dan.
Victoria
Yes that’s right. NSW State Libs can not stand Morrison. They also think they’re a better chance of re-election in 2023 if the feds lose in May. Believe Recent By election results had a strong Morrison protest vote.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/woman-who-rents-from-anthony-albanese-reveals-what-hes-like-as-a-landlord/news-story/4d27c3f766dc23e5224bef7dba7c548a
For a guy that is behind and desperately needs oxygen all this couldn’t have come at a worse time. 43% cut to Aid in the Pacific. Pathetic. Albo I hope is on the mend and ready to “bring home the bacon”.
“Foreign aid cuts to the Pacific cannot be blamed for the controversial security pact signed between Solomon Islands and China, prime minister Scott Morrison claims.
Sandbagging Labor attacks over the deal for a fifth-consecutive day, Mr Morrison said Lowy Institute analysis showing Australian aid to the Solomons dropped 43 per cent in the decade after 2009 was not a swaying factor.
The PM, who shifted his election campaign to the Northern Territory on Sunday — almost colliding with Labor’s shadow ministers Penny Wong and Mark Butler on the hustings in Alice Springs — would not be drawn on when he last spoke with Solomon Islands counterpart Manasseh Sogavare.
“ (Mr Sogavare) was very clear in his latest communication with me, not that long ago, that he has no intention of putting a naval base on the Solomon Islands,” he said.
“The correspondence that I’ve had with (prime minister) has always been deeply grateful … for the extensive economic and law and order support we have provided.
“We have always upped our investment across the Pacific.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2022-pm-defends-foreign-aid-cuts-to-solomon-islands-as-china-crisis-deepens/news-story/eba5c066909445827e9ad8cfdd2e7bd2?amp
“Meanwhile, is it just me or is it Scotty M being racist by making the criticism of Liu about her race?”
He thinks when his thoughts are only “Assumed” racist, he is not being racist, and so he is not just racist all the time.
Arkysays:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11:54 pm
Meanwhile, is it just me or is it Scotty M being racist by making the criticism of Liu about her race?
—
It’s actually pretty standard fare for the typical “hidden” racist.
There’s a great episode of Becker that addresses this exact idea. If you want to see it, see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-syY5pIMu34
Basically, some people will pretend to be outraged by supposed racism, but they’re actually making it racist themselves.
Upnorth at 11.59pm
“We have always upped our investment across the Pacific.”
Scott Morrison said with fingers crossed behind his back…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNPgS24ZZVo
Upnorth @ #1460 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:59 pm
I remember when I was in the Solomon’s we had just gifted them 2 patrol boats. They were tied up at pier next to the Honiara yacht club as they could not afford to run and maintain them.
So if it’s not about the money, it must be about their security.
Why do they feel so insecure that they feel they need to sign a defence pact with China?
The Gladys Liu criticisms have nothing to do with race, supposed racism is just being used as cover because there isn’t a credible defence.
MikeK
Yes I have been meaning to watch that film for years and not got around to it.
I did finally watch the miniseries “The Pacific” right through over about two days a few years ago – I had seen it week by week on TV a few years before and had found it quite confusing with all the island hopping. It actually was better bingeing it.
“(Mr Sogavare) was very clear in his latest communication with me, not that long ago, that he has no intention of putting a naval base on the Solomon Islands,” Morrison said.
Peace in our time. Anyone?
“ Why do they feel so insecure that they feel they need to sign a defence pact with China?”
I get the impression that Sogavare feels insecure about his domestic political position.
@Been There
Greatest thing was moving to a town with an ALDI, have my $100 microwave from 10 years ago, along with a whipper snipper, table saw, fishing rods, lots of different ALDI tools, coffee machine all good value and seem to last
Mostly get the little things now like big boxes of screws as is too tempting and you only need so many useless gadgets
Only things to avoid, drill and driver bits – absolutely useless, yes they are cheap but not the good sort of cheap
For bigger things, the poor man’s Bunnings – the big not so local tip, did a whole bathroom and laundry apart from the dunny and taps.
Always end up coming away with a $5 mower or something even better like, I kid you not a Weber IQ BBQ for $20
GlenO
Never saw that episode, but I do love Ted Danson in that role. John Becker is actually a very empathetic doctor despite himself!
“I’d give you a list of all of the Coalition’s faults, but I don’t have the stamina to write a comment the length of War and Peace, just to demonstrate to you how bad they are (because it would take that much to document it all).”
Yes it would. May 21 is our collective Bin Night. It will be time to kick it to the kerb. Please people don’t forget to take the trash out this time.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1467 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 10:18 pm
Certainly the Solomon’s won’t be building a navy base, as for China, that’s a different question.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 12:32 am
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1467 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 10:18 pm
“(Mr Sogavare) was very clear in his latest communication with me, not that long ago, that he has no intention of putting a naval base on the Solomon Islands,” Morrison said.
Peace in our time. Anyone?
Certainly the Solomon’s won’t be building a navy base, as for China, that’s a different question.
===============
And they build em quick too Barney. They won’t be buggerising around like Dutton and Co. have done with the ADF
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 12:22 am
Thanks for that advice re screws.
Good to see all else is well.
Barney, just an aside – what do people in your neck of the woods think about the proposed new Indonesian capital, Nusantara on Kalimantan / Borneo? You’re on Sulawesi aren’t you?
Some truth in this Shovel article:
An undecided voter who watched the Morrison government fuck up the vaccine roll-out, piss money away on carparks, gaslight women, destroy the environment, refuse to be investigated for corruption, and completely balls up every natural-disaster response, says he’s going to wait and see what happens over the next four weeks before deciding who to vote for.
Josh Jacobs conceded the last few years of governance had been awful but said he wanted to compare the leaders pretending to be tradespeople in staged photo shoots in marginal electorates before locking any one candidate in.
“What I’m really concerned about is which politician can answer a journalist’s question about an economic index that I have never heard of. Sure, action on climate change is important to me, but I’m willing to let the Earth take one for the team if someone commits the faux pas of eating a pie upside down during a media stop”.
Another undecided voter said she wanted a politician with experience. “And Scomo has years of constantly falling arse-over-backwards into his own shit so I’ll probably give him my vote.”
When it was explained to her that she was not in Scott Morrison’s electorate and therefore would be voting for a different local candidate, she stared blankly into the distance for a full two minutes while somewhere a member of the Australian Electoral Commission punched a wall because they’ve spent six-fucking-months explaining this.
Couldnt help laughing at this one too:
Out of options and uncertain of what else to do in the face of an onslaught from independent candidates, Liberal Party MPs have smashed the glass and removed the little John Howard that sits on a wall at Liberal Party headquarters in Sydney.
“Emergency! Emergency!” deputy leader Josh Frydenberg shouted, being careful not to get Howard’s eyebrows stuck in the glass as he pulled the little guy out of the box.
Frantically reading the instructions as he held Howard in his hand, Frydenberg used a small key to wind up the former Prime Minister, aimed him towards the campaign trail and watched him spring to life and immediately run off to a media event to say something sexist.
“It’s incredible how quickly he’s ready to go. Wind him up, let him spray bullshit everywhere and he immediately takes everyone back to the 1950s”.
A party spokesperson said the emergency procedures were used sparingly. “This is something we definitely only use as a last resort once every federal election and at every state election and three to four times a year when we can’t think of anything else to do”.
https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/woman-who-rents-from-anthony-albanese-reveals-what-hes-like-as-a-landlord-c-6562838
wondered how long this would take to hit the main media. 🙂
“Liberal Party MPs have smashed the glass and removed the little John Howard that sits on a wall at Liberal Party headquarters in Sydney.”
Oh God just please make it stop.
A_E @ 12.20
“I get the impression that Sogavare feels insecure about his domestic political position.”
This is fundamental to an understanding of the situation in the Solomon Islands.
More importantly, it’s this fact that provides the path to getting SI to undo the extent of their relationship with China.
Sogavare has a power base in the west of the islands.
Sogavare’s background is Choiseul and further west into PNG.
The domestic political situation in SI is not necessarily stable, the Chinese are aware of this and hopefully a new post Morrison/Dutton government will also develop more awareness as to the domestic political situation in SI.
Seth Abrahamson has a sobering thread on the Insurrection threat to democracy in the US and Putin
“ The insurrection is ongoing. Its aims are clear. Its leaders are known. Its methods are public. Its implications unmistakable. Its demands: 1) an end to free and fair elections; 2) radical isolation from the world; 3) universal moral ambivalence; 4) a unitary executive branch.”
New thread.
Solomon island. International view of Morrison’s stuff up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jbT7cbV2jg
GlenO:
“The Matrix, which is where you get your name from, was two Trans women’s allegory about the experience of being Trans, and was full of anti-capitalist imagery and language.”
Yep, true, it was from the Matrix I chose this moniker, it was supposed to be subtle irony, (wasted on most here, who can only gravitate to ‘Johnson’ humour… so witty!). You might also be surprised that a person can accept another person, whomever they are, and, of course, their art, without jumping on the ludicrous bandwagon that is trans ideology. Unlike the left, my default is not to shun and cancel everyone that disagrees with me.
“As for seats, considering that opinion polls (which aren’t showing the telltale signs of herding that happened in 2019) have Labor up about 5% on a 2PP, and there are 15 Lib seats with margins of 5% or less vs Labor, it seems to me that Labor are in a pretty solid position to take government.”
I understand that you might think this is a good position. Bilbo ought to know more than most here that the TPP (or even primaries) have been poor predictors of elections for several federal elections in Australia now and no one is completely sure why. The five major polls were over 2% biased to ALP on average in the last election for example. If some of the ALP apparatchiks here on PB were a little more honest (and that is a very rare commodity amongst this rusted on group), they would be telling you that the ALP is currently in a worse position than last time, since the TPP is the same for this point in the election, but the ‘red tide’ is shallower at the edges than Shorten had to work with (with 15 seats under 5%, for example, when you need to win 8 net. That is tough in this climate.
The Greens have stalled their vote.
Whilst in 2015, the Australian Democrats were finally de-registered as a party for failing to have fewer than 500 members, it was actually a long decline since 2004 (where they achieved only 2.4% of the vote), when they lost their last sitting member in 2009, with David Winderlich in 2009. That vote basically attached to the Greens. If you allow for this addition, the Greens did not actually grow their vote in any consistent way at all since 2007. Demographically, we know the Greens have the highest uptake in the 18-25 category, and yet the vote has more or less stagnated. Voters are not sticking with the Greens.
What is far more important is how the marginal seats play out. My analysis of the marginal seat betting markets over five elections now has predicted all five of those outcomes, including the Gillard hung parliament. I remember being roundly ridiculed amongst this particular group for predicting this. True, I was out by one seat, but this mob derided that as a ‘failure’, despite ludicrously partisan predictions (guesses) amongst those here into the 90s for ALP seats. Ahem… yeah right!
This election doesn’t look like an ALP win, the primary isn’t high enough and the Greens aren’t strong enough to support. The Coalition primary is also too low, but there is evidence that parked votes in One Nation, UAP and other minors will either shift or just bleed with preferences in the seats where they are important, which is all that matters. In most of the marginals in play both these votes are higher, but the Green vote varies above and below its national mean in these seats, the only ones that matter.
Thanks for being basically civil. I spent years being so, until I realised that none of these people will be anything close to civil if you even question their glorious party…
Note even the arrogance here that some have suggested that ‘boat arrivals haven’t even been an issue lately’. I really have to face slap at this ignorance. Yes, it wasn’t a problem immediately prior to ALP election with Rudd (where policies were dismantled and it became a MAJOR problem) until two years after the ALP, when Morrison’s policies mopped up the mess. Then the blind audacity to suggest that ALP policies would be better if boats did become a problem again?? You can’t get clearer evidence. Zero arrivals before and zero after the ALP with Coalition policies. This is where delusion needs to be addressed. If the people in here were, in any way, credible, they would admit the failure of their party in this area and the success of the Coalition. Though none will. There is no greater lie than self-delusion.
Now, I just visit, not so much to be a troll but to watch this ongoing psychological exercise in partisan delusion. I have never seen such one-eyed people in my life.
Wasn’t there supposed to be a News Poll yesterday? Every week on Sunday isn’t it? Confused!