Essential Research: 59-41

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are approval ratings for the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader (both up solidly from six weeks ago), respondents’ self-perceptions of their employment and salary outlooks, Kim Beazley’s appointment as ambassador to the United States (54 per cent approve, 18 per cent disapprove) and Brendan Nelson’s appointment as ambassador to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg (49 per cent approve, 22 per cent disapprove).

Also:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis breakdown of federal polling results. Possum notes it shows up an intriguing divergence between city and country, which he says “could well be explained by the Coalition line on the ETS”. I might suggest that the largely forgotten Gippsland by-election of last June offered a premonition of this.

• About 200 local Liberal National Party members will vote for a candidate to succeed the outgoing Margaret May in the Gold Coast seat of McPherson on Saturday. Noses have been put out of the joint by the fact that the position was advertised on Thursday, one day before the closure of nominations, which has been universally interpreted as an attempt to assist Peter Dutton in his bid to move to the seat from notionally Labor Dickson. Glenn Milne in The Australian reports that May urged Dutton to nominate for the seat, somewhat deflating the notion that federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews might benefit from being her reported ally. Another of Dutton’s three preselection rivals is Minna Knight, a former staffer to Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop. Milne says Knight has the backing of state Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, whose husband Richard Stuckey withdrew from the race last week. Rounding out the field is Wayne Black, of whom nothing seems to be known. Despite earlier reports, twice-unsuccessful state Burleigh candidate Michael Hart has not nominated. Tanya Westthorp of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports local members are “threatening to revolt” if the state executive overturns the result of their ballot, as seems likely if Dutton doesn’t win. Andrew Fraser of The Australian notes the local party’s history of rebuffing imported candidates with reference to the 1998 preselection, when former Brisbane lord mayor Sallyanne Atkinson finished sixth in a field of 23.

• The ABC reports that Queensland’s conservatives will soon reach a decision as to whether their federal election candidates will stand as Liberals and Nationals, Liberal Nationals, or the “LNP”.

• AAP reports speculation that Jodie Campbell, federal Labor member for the ultra-marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass, might not contest the next election. Campbell has been in the news recently after her partner was charged with assaulting her, and two of her staff members abruptly and mysteriously resigned. The AAP report notes she “has been moved from her much-televised seat in parliament behind the prime minister”. Geoff Lyons, electorate officer to Senator Helen Polley and an unsuccessful state candidate from 2002, is mentioned as a possible replacement.

• Michelle Grattan reports in The Age that former tennis star John Alexander, who made the final six in Saturday’s Bradfield preselection, is “volunteering” to take on Maxine McKew in Bennelong. Others who have been mentioned in the past are Melanie Howard and former state MPs Kerry Chikarovski and Andrew Tink, all of whom have been ruled out, and former rugby union international Brett Papworth.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Pfizer executive David Miles will challenge Bill Heffernan for the second position on the New South Wales Liberal Senate ticket. Incumbent Connie Fierravanti-Wells is expected to hold the top position. The third will depend on whether the state Liberal and Nationals can smooth over tensions and reach their usual joint ticket arrangement, in which Nationals Senator Fiona Nash would take the third position.

• Phillip Coorey also reports it is “rumoured” that Noel McCoy has nominated for preselection against Philip Ruddock in Berowra, despite announcing in late July that he would not do so.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Tony Mulder, police commander and Clarence council alderman, has emerged a surprise winner for Liberal preselection in the state division of Franklin. The Liberals are considered all but certain to increase their representation in the five-seat division from one seat to two at the election next March, with incumbent and party leader Will Hodgman assured of re-election. The party hierarchy is apparently keen that the second seat be won by Jacquie Petrusma, who was Family First’s Senate candidate in 2004 and 2007 and came close to winning a seat on the former occasion at the expense of Christine Milne of the Greens. Also on the ticket are Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Vanessa Goodwin was earlier considered to be in the box seat, but she has since found a place in the upper house after winning the Pembroke by-election on August 1.

• In a short but eventful article, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Mark Sheridan, neurosurgeon and director of surgical services at Liverpool Hospital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the outer-southwest Sydney state seat of Menai, held by Labor’s Alison Megarrity on a margin of 2.6 per cent. It is also “understood” that National Rugby League chief operating officer Graham Annesley has again nominated for Miranda in southern Sydney, where he fell 0.8 per cent short of defeating Barry Collier in 2007; that Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has again nominated for the north-west Sydney seat of Londonderry, where Labor’s Allan Shearan defeated him by 6.9 per cent in 2007; and Randwick mayor Bruce Notley-Smith has nominated for the inner eastern Sydney seat of Coogee, held for Labor by Paul Pearce on a margin of 7.3 per cent.

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room is constructing what promises to be a superbly comprehensive guide to the federal election post by post.

• Keep following the action at my regularly updated posts on the Bradfield federal by-election and Willagee state by-election in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

983 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. [With 6.4% of the primary vote, South Australia was by that measure the worst state for the Greens in 2007.]
    I wonder if this is because some regular Green voters voted for Xenophon instead?
    [Photocopy finish!]
    LOL!

  2. [I wonder if this is because some regular Green voters voted for Xenophon instead?]
    It probably had some effect. It’s apparent in lower house contests that the Green vote is depressed in the presence a strong left-wing independent. (Although Xenophon is not unambiguously left-wing.)

    Nonetheless, it was nearly a full percentage point less than what Larissa Waters got in Queensland, their next worst state. Only 0.5% of Xenophon’s vote “returned” to the Greens (see prev post), so it really was a difficult starting point from which to win a seat.

  3. Rewi @ 941
    I’ll say the same here as I said at the ABC site. You should google up the image and some of its history before you have a go at the ‘wowsers’.

  5. [It probably had some effect.]
    It’s good to see that 1% of Greens are closet pragmatists! 😀
    [Only 0.5% of Xenophon’s vote “returned” to the Greens (see prev post), so it really was a difficult starting point from which to win a seat.]
    A D.D. election could be bad for the Greens in S.A. Xenophon would win a seat, and possibly elect someone else on his ticket at the expense of Hanson-Young.

  6. [Is it this one? Quelle scandale.]
    Thanks very much Pephos, that link is enough to have this blog added to the ACMA blacklist.

  9. [A D.D. election could be bad for the Greens in S.A. Xenophon would win a seat, and possibly elect someone else on his ticket at the expense of Hanson-Young.]

    That’s certainly possible. In 2007, Xenophon got 14.8% to Hanson-Young’s 6.4%.

    With a quota of 7.7% in a double dissolution, Xenophon would pass a surplus of 7.1% to his number two.

    Probably both the Greens and Xenophon#2 would be elected (highlighting the danger of a DD for the Rudd govt), but without a full quota nothing is assured.

  10. Yes, it seems the world at large has got it wrong.

    Here’s something from the Guggenheim website:

    [Prince’s attraction to the incendiary potential of photography is writ large in his appropriated 1983 photograph Spiritual America, showing a naked, prepubescent Brooke Shields posing in a brothel-like atmosphere, her face made up like a grown woman’s. First exhibited by Prince in a makeshift gallery on Manhattan’s Lower East Side, the original photograph was at the time the subject of a protracted lawsuit between Shields and the photographer, Gary Gross, over the ownership of its copyright. By then a well-known actress, Shields wanted to prevent further commercialization of the picture, which had been taken with her mother’s full consent. For Prince, this troubling image and its controversial history encapsulate the dueling impulses at the heart of the American psyche, with its overarching puritan ethics countered by a yearning for recognition, even at the price of transgression and degradation.]

    It would appear America is not alone in its ‘overarching puritan ethics’.

  13. [For Prince, this troubling image and its controversial history encapsulate the dueling impulses at the heart of the American psyche, with its overarching puritan ethics countered by a yearning for recognition, even at the price of transgression and degradation.]
    Weasel words.

  14. [Probably both the Greens and Xenophon#2 would be elected (highlighting the danger of a DD for the Rudd govt), but without a full quota nothing is assured.]
    The other issue is that the quarterly news poll shows a massive collapse in the Coalition vote in S.A. (down 8.6% 2pp). Of course there are dangers translating that to the Senate vote, but I think the big winner of that vote could be Labor and Xenophon rather than the Greens.

    Apparently in some strong Labor booths Xenophon out polled the Liberals at the last election.

  15. [Weasel words.]

    What – you think he’s just a pedo or a pornographer? If so, why go public and incur all this abuse? Why not just pursue his pedo porno passtimes on the net like all the other pedos?

  16. [Weasel words.]
    Not wrong. Derivations of the word “transgress” would have to be the most over used words in the Humanities.

    The broader issue to me is that there are some things that children shouldn’t be allowed to do, even if their parents say they can do it. You know, like sailing boats around the world for example. 😀

  17. Actually it art is to provoke reflection it’s quite a good picture. I found it quite repulsive and had to reflect why. On the one hand you lust after women on the other you want to protect your daughters. Oh, and she needs a decent feed.

  18. [The other issue is that the quarterly news poll shows a massive collapse in the Coalition vote in S.A. (down 8.6% 2pp). Of course there are dangers translating that to the Senate vote, but I think the big winner of that vote could be Labor and Xenophon rather than the Greens.]
    Agree that there’s not much scope for the Greens to pick up disaffected Liberal voters. But a lower Liberal vote could nonetheless advantage the Greens.

    In the context of a Senate election, it might mean that the last Liberal candidate is eliminated at an earlier stage of the count. And if the only choice is between Labor and the Greens, those Liberal preferences will go to the Greens everytime.

  20. Apart from the fact that the sentence barely makes sense, it reads like a poor excuse to display an ‘iffy’ image.
    I think it is fine that artists push boundaries, as Prince (and Henson) have done. But they should not be surprised when the community pushes back and says ‘too far’. Henson’s images were iffy enough for some, and whatever you think of the images, Henson KNEW he was pushing at boundaries. I understand some people wanted to support Henson, but I think you’d be out on a limb trying to defend this image.

  23. Don’t know if much has been said about the Sex party but I think when guys who don’t care about politics (90%) see the word sex, like a magnet they are drawn to it. I think they will be a real chance of picking up a senate seat.
    Oh and the greek elections are to be held on sunday. The socialists are set to win and oust out the right wing new democracy- hoorah!

  25. [Sex party but I think when guys who don’t care about politics (90%) see the word sex, like a magnet they are drawn to it. I think they will be a real chance of picking up a senate seat]
    Where do you think they’ll win a seat? Victoria? Unfortunately they are supporting the Free Australia (Bikie) party.

  26. [Turnbull gave it a go:]
    In fairness to Turnbull (can’t believe I just said that) he wasn’t talking about the Tate incident.

  27. [I think they will be a real chance of picking up a senate seat.]

    The Sex Party is only interested in sniffing Senate seats, not picking them up.

  29. [In fairness to Turnbull (can’t believe I just said that) he wasn’t talking about the Tate incident.]
    He defended Henson is my point.

  30. If they are able to man the booths and have a flyer with VOTE 1 SEX PARTY on it, anything could happen. Remember it’s the senate.

  31. [If they are able to man the booths and have a flyer with VOTE 1 SEX PARTY on it, anything could happen.]
    I reckon they should woman the booths instead, in bikinis.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Family First and / or the Liberals try to have their campaign materials band because it will feature the word “sex”.

  32. 955

    In a DD the quota in each state would be 7.69%. The Greens with 6.4% (they may well get a slightly higher vote) would likely be able to rake in 1.3% in micro-party and surplus major party votes. Senator Hanson-Young would be re-elected in a DD.

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