Essential Research: 59-41

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are approval ratings for the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader (both up solidly from six weeks ago), respondents’ self-perceptions of their employment and salary outlooks, Kim Beazley’s appointment as ambassador to the United States (54 per cent approve, 18 per cent disapprove) and Brendan Nelson’s appointment as ambassador to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg (49 per cent approve, 22 per cent disapprove).

Also:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis breakdown of federal polling results. Possum notes it shows up an intriguing divergence between city and country, which he says “could well be explained by the Coalition line on the ETS”. I might suggest that the largely forgotten Gippsland by-election of last June offered a premonition of this.

• About 200 local Liberal National Party members will vote for a candidate to succeed the outgoing Margaret May in the Gold Coast seat of McPherson on Saturday. Noses have been put out of the joint by the fact that the position was advertised on Thursday, one day before the closure of nominations, which has been universally interpreted as an attempt to assist Peter Dutton in his bid to move to the seat from notionally Labor Dickson. Glenn Milne in The Australian reports that May urged Dutton to nominate for the seat, somewhat deflating the notion that federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews might benefit from being her reported ally. Another of Dutton’s three preselection rivals is Minna Knight, a former staffer to Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop. Milne says Knight has the backing of state Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, whose husband Richard Stuckey withdrew from the race last week. Rounding out the field is Wayne Black, of whom nothing seems to be known. Despite earlier reports, twice-unsuccessful state Burleigh candidate Michael Hart has not nominated. Tanya Westthorp of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports local members are “threatening to revolt” if the state executive overturns the result of their ballot, as seems likely if Dutton doesn’t win. Andrew Fraser of The Australian notes the local party’s history of rebuffing imported candidates with reference to the 1998 preselection, when former Brisbane lord mayor Sallyanne Atkinson finished sixth in a field of 23.

• The ABC reports that Queensland’s conservatives will soon reach a decision as to whether their federal election candidates will stand as Liberals and Nationals, Liberal Nationals, or the “LNP”.

• AAP reports speculation that Jodie Campbell, federal Labor member for the ultra-marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass, might not contest the next election. Campbell has been in the news recently after her partner was charged with assaulting her, and two of her staff members abruptly and mysteriously resigned. The AAP report notes she “has been moved from her much-televised seat in parliament behind the prime minister”. Geoff Lyons, electorate officer to Senator Helen Polley and an unsuccessful state candidate from 2002, is mentioned as a possible replacement.

• Michelle Grattan reports in The Age that former tennis star John Alexander, who made the final six in Saturday’s Bradfield preselection, is “volunteering” to take on Maxine McKew in Bennelong. Others who have been mentioned in the past are Melanie Howard and former state MPs Kerry Chikarovski and Andrew Tink, all of whom have been ruled out, and former rugby union international Brett Papworth.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Pfizer executive David Miles will challenge Bill Heffernan for the second position on the New South Wales Liberal Senate ticket. Incumbent Connie Fierravanti-Wells is expected to hold the top position. The third will depend on whether the state Liberal and Nationals can smooth over tensions and reach their usual joint ticket arrangement, in which Nationals Senator Fiona Nash would take the third position.

• Phillip Coorey also reports it is “rumoured” that Noel McCoy has nominated for preselection against Philip Ruddock in Berowra, despite announcing in late July that he would not do so.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Tony Mulder, police commander and Clarence council alderman, has emerged a surprise winner for Liberal preselection in the state division of Franklin. The Liberals are considered all but certain to increase their representation in the five-seat division from one seat to two at the election next March, with incumbent and party leader Will Hodgman assured of re-election. The party hierarchy is apparently keen that the second seat be won by Jacquie Petrusma, who was Family First’s Senate candidate in 2004 and 2007 and came close to winning a seat on the former occasion at the expense of Christine Milne of the Greens. Also on the ticket are Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Vanessa Goodwin was earlier considered to be in the box seat, but she has since found a place in the upper house after winning the Pembroke by-election on August 1.

• In a short but eventful article, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Mark Sheridan, neurosurgeon and director of surgical services at Liverpool Hospital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the outer-southwest Sydney state seat of Menai, held by Labor’s Alison Megarrity on a margin of 2.6 per cent. It is also “understood” that National Rugby League chief operating officer Graham Annesley has again nominated for Miranda in southern Sydney, where he fell 0.8 per cent short of defeating Barry Collier in 2007; that Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has again nominated for the north-west Sydney seat of Londonderry, where Labor’s Allan Shearan defeated him by 6.9 per cent in 2007; and Randwick mayor Bruce Notley-Smith has nominated for the inner eastern Sydney seat of Coogee, held for Labor by Paul Pearce on a margin of 7.3 per cent.

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room is constructing what promises to be a superbly comprehensive guide to the federal election post by post.

• Keep following the action at my regularly updated posts on the Bradfield federal by-election and Willagee state by-election in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

983 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. [The Finns mobilised 14 divisions to fight Russia]

    Vera, yes, it was a hard winter campaign. you aint got any idea how cold the winters were in Russia. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

    we flipped completely.

  2. Finns, you have a float in the nice warm waters of Oz and get your strength back.

    The Australian are even pushing the old chestnut “I voted labor last time but never again”
    Ruddy will get wiped out in his home state! THEY WISH 😀
    [Labor may get burnt in Sunshine State
    Andrew Fraser | September 28, 2009
    Article from: The Australian
    ELISA Di Cristo bucked the family voting patterns when she cast her vote for Kevin Rudd two years ago.

    Now, she’s thinking of returning to the Liberal fold as part of a movement that could cost Labor ground in the key state of Queensland.]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26133462-5006786,00.html

  3. Apologies for the repost – but this came just after William’s “new post”
    [Hansard of last week’s Senate CoOmmittee is up. Here’s a taste:

    Senator CAMERON—What about some of the infrastructure projects that form part of the package?
    Prof. Davidson—Name them.

    Senator CAMERON—The Ipswich Motorway.

    Prof. Davidson—The government’s job is to build roads anyway. I would have thought that is a state government responsibility.

    Senator CAMERON—Are you seriously putting to this inquiry that the federal government should play no role in investing in the nation’s road infrastructure?

    Prof. Davidson—I am putting it to you that if you wanted to build roads that you would give the money to the states and allow the state governments to make decisions as to what roads they wish to build.

    Senator CAMERON—That is an interesting point of view!

    Prof. Davidson—We have a constitution that actually has states that make decisions about these things. You do represent the states, don’t you?

    Senator CAMERON—I am here to ask the questions, not you.

    Prof. Davidson—Actually, I am a taxpayer. I will ask questions too.

    Senator CAMERON—You will not ask me any questions. I will be asking the questions,
    thanks very much.]

    Have to say Davidson came across as such a partisan hack, that his evidence (such as it was) carried very little weight. His bias was far too obvious.
    http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S12457.pdf

  5. [Fark.me.dead. Fielding is an ignorant buffoon that hasnt listened to a single word Stevens has said for the last 3 hours.]

    Methinks our Marsupial is learning to swear. Naughty Marsupial.

  6. Good Southpark tonight – Keyenesian economics v Friedman in the context of a young Jew (Jesus?) speaking blasphemy against the Economy – being persecuted by the anti-Keynesian types.

  9. [Finns, you have a float in the nice warm waters of Oz and get your strength back.]

    Vera, it was OK. The Babushkas kept us warm. 👿

  13. So Milne’s articles re Kev throwing around a few sweet words to the faction heads meant nothing to the mob polled by Essential. How galling must that be.

    Speaking of Barnaby’s bizarre questions to Stevens here’s Possum’s take on it

    [# Stevens is honestly trying very very hard not to laugh at Barnarby.about 8 hours ago from TweetDeck ]

  19. Where is PB’s resident expert on the CCP, Comrade Diog, tonight. A very big day is coming up for the Comrades.

    The East will be crimson Red on 1/10/09 on the Gate of the Heavenly Peace.

    [The PRC 60th Anniversary Parade: Equipment on Display, Not Military Capabilities – The Chinese press has announced that 52 types of “new weapon systems” will be on display in 30 vehicle and 12 air formations during the October 1st military parade portion of the 60th anniversary celebration of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PLA Daily, September 17)………….

    All of the Chinese Armed Forces on Parade. This is a parade of the entire Chinese armed forces, not just the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

    The Chinese armed forces are a “party army”: their loyalty is pledged to the Chinese Communist Party (CPP), not the state (People’s Republic of China). The first mission defined by Party General-Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission Hu Jintao in his “historic missions in the new century” is to safeguard the Party’s governing position (Xinhua News Agency, October 25, 2007). Every parade formation, except for the honor guard, will be led by two leaders or two vehicles. These pairs represent unit commanders and political officers. In the Chinese armed forces, the commander and political officer are jointly responsible for the actions of their unit. There are many examples where both commander and political officer were relieved of their duties when something went wrong……….

    The 60th anniversary parade is one milestone in China’s long-term, multi-faceted military modernization process. It will be major morale boost for the force and a source of national pride for the Chinese public, but the parade should not be misinterpreted by attributing unwarranted intentions to this single event.]

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35535&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=381&cHash=c981c3e01f

  21. [Every parade formation, except for the honor guard, will be led by two leaders or two vehicles. These pairs represent unit commanders and political officers. In the Chinese armed forces, the commander and political officer are jointly responsible for the actions of their unit.]

    Curiously enough, that was exactly the system the Red Army used when they tried to conquer Finland, with utterly disastrous consequences, since officers were too scared to exercise any initiative for fear their commissar would report them to the NKVD (as they frequently did). This is one of many reasons why China’s supposed military and political might is a ricepaper tiger.

  22. [with utterly disastrous consequences, since officers were too scared to exercise any initiative for fear their commissar would report them to the NKVD ]

    Yeah the NKVD and Stalin weren’t big on “constructive criticism”

  23. Adam 21

    True; even the Finns would acknowledge that they wouldn’t have achieved the success they did in the Winter War except for Soviet command. If you read Beevoir the Soviets still had commissars till 1943. In some Finnish eyes the 1944 defence was more impressive because by then the Soviets were run very efficiently. The Chinese had trouble fighting the Vietnamese in their border “incident” in the 80s.

    TP
    You have me in suspense – who was Judas?

  26. It’s a curious thing, the comparison between Stalin and Hitler during World War II. Stalin would listen to advice (usually), but not criticism. Hitler would listen to criticism, but not advice. Stalin learned from the debacle in Finland, and from the defeats of 1941, to listen to professional advice from his generals – he never thought he was a military genius. But any overt criticism or political dissidence, and it was off to the Gulag with you. Hitler on the other hand did think he was a military genius, and refused to take professional advice on strategy or tactics from anyone. But when generals told him to his face he was wrong, or even that the war was lost, sometimes he flew into a rage, but the worst that might happen to the general was to be sent on leave, and they were usually recalled after a while.

  27. Psephos:
    Chinese military, while large in number, is still very much a force in transition. I am not sure “might” is an adequate term to describe the PLA. As to the “two leader” system, the same system exists in the Red Army that repelled and eventually defeated German forces during WWII and in PLA that managed to contain a vastly better equipped UN forces in the Korean War, so it may not be as bad as it appears.
    NKVD-like operations does not really extend to the armed forces in China, and the scale of operation is nowhere near as big.

  28. Randwick mayor Bruce Notley-Smith has nominated for the inner eastern Sydney seat of Coogee…

    That story was filed just in time, he most likely won’t be the mayor after tomorrow night. Also, as far as I know he lives just outside of the electorate, although he may have relocated.

    …held for Labor by Paul Pearce on a margin of 7.3 per cent

    There is some speculation that Pearce will have a serious pre-selection challenger.

    Coogee is shaping up to be one of the most interesting seats to watch in the next NSW election.

  30. [If you read Beevoir the Soviets still had commissars till 1943.]

    They had commissars (“politruks”) all through the war, but their role was the political education and motivation of the troops, not the co-management of the army. As I said earlier today, when Timoshenko took over from Voroshilov in 1940, he insisted that the dual command system be ended. There was some relapse from this during the disasters of 1941, when Stalin again relied on commissars to keep the generals from retreating, but once competent commanders like Zhukov and Rokossovski took over, they again insisted on a free hand, which they generally got.

  31. Socrates: The China-Vietnam conflict was never going to be a full-blown war, and China did not exactly commit all it can to the conflict.
    Anyhoo, let’s not get too carried away with the military parade. IMHO, the vast transformation of China during the past 60 years (particularly the past 25 years) is a much more worthy subject of discussion.

  34. [The China-Vietnam conflict was never going to be a full-blown war, and China did not exactly commit all it can to the conflict.]

    Nevertheless they got their butts kicked, which gave the Party a nasty shock. To this day the subject is forbidden in the Chinese press, and veterans of that war are not allowed to talk about it in public.

  36. Psephos:
    Er, don’t know where you got the information from, but the conflict was not taboo at all. One could and can still read numerous memoirs of the conflict, the topic was covered intensely by the press/media, and soldiers that returned from fighting and quite often gave public, frank talk about the conflict. The fact that Chinese forces received heavy casualty was common knowledge.

  37. [Psephos: Er, don’t know where you got the information from, but the conflict was not taboo at all.]

    Psephos sometimes just doesnt know what he is talking about.

    There was a semi-pop-propaganda-patriotic song written by a soldier from that conflict and about that conflict, it is still very popular and widely sung today in China, Taiwan, HK and Singapore.

  38. I’ve added two more points to this post since I first put it up:

    • Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis breakdown of federal polling results. Possum notes it shows up an intriguing divergence between city and country, which he says “could well be explained by the Coalition line on the ETS”. I might suggest that the largely forgotten Gippsland by-election of last June offered a premonition of this.

    • AAP reports speculation that Jodie Campbell, federal Labor member for the ultra-marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass, might not contest the next election. Campbell has been in the news recently after her partner was charged with assaulting her, and two of her staff members abruptly and mysteriously resigned. The AAP report notes she “has been moved from her much-televised seat in parliament behind the prime minister”. Geoff Lyons, electorate officer to Senator Helen Polley and an unsuccessful state candidate from 2002, is mentioned as a possible replacement.

  40. [Possum notes it shows up an intriguing divergence between city and country, which he says “could well be explained by the Coalition line on the ETS”. I might suggest that the largely forgotten Gippsland by-election of last June offered a premonition of this.]
    What maneuvering on the ETS did the government do between the federal election and Gippsland?

    I don’t think there was much, if any. For instance, the Garnaut Report didn’t come out until the following September.

  42. Gippsland was also about the ute driving Bundy-mixers drinking boys wasn’t it? Brendan telling them he’d get 5cent a ltr cut on their petrol and make sure the Alchopops bill was voted down?
    There was hysteria about petrol hitting $2 a ltr and Libs said it was all Rudd’s fault because he promised to do something but his fuelwatch was a dud.
    Was the Rudd is mean to pensioners campaign going then, when did Brendan promise the 30 a week increase?

  44. A very tenuous link – here is the 3rd last episode of an Australian Kids TV Classic axed by their ABC in the dying days of the McMahon Govt and sparked a “Save Adventure Island Campaign” led by Federal MP David Kennedy.

    To quote from the “New Adventure Island Website – (John Michael Howson and Bruce Rowland have written an updated shopping centre version of the show based loosely on the original)

    [The show’s closure, announced in mid l972, was highly controversial and was met with an unprecedented flood of public protest. A group of MP’s headed by David Kennedy formed a “Save Adventure Island” campaign during which questions were asked in Parliament. However the campaign was unsuccessful and the final episode, number 1175, aired on December 22, 1972. ]

    The date is rather ironic as it was just after the election of Gough Whitlamn and I’m wondering if this decision may have also influenced the vote ?

    http://www.adventureisland.com.au/history/

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2sMelUys5w

    And it’s signature closing song “We’ll Be Thinking Of You to this day still brings this poster to tears (as it did tonight when pasting the closer over on LP)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2sMelUys5w

    Enjoy.

  45. [Tony Jones says Labor support in the bush has “plunged” according to the Newspoll analysis.]

    It just went to air in Perth, and what he said is that support for the Coalition had jumped outside the capital cities – which seems true enough as far as it goes, providing you’re using the previous quarter rather than the 2007 election as your starting point.

  49. [Thank you Frank, that’s very touching.]

    Thanks, that Friday Closer is a real tearjerker and it still hits me even after some 37 years, and you lot thought I was a heartless Bastard, I dare ANYONE one to watch that and not turn on the waterworks.

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