Two markedly different federal poll results from the past few days, the more favourable for Labor being from the uneven Roy Morgan series, which has them up two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with One Nation down three-and-a-half to 23.5%, the Coalition down half to 20.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor is credited with two-party preferred leads on respondent-allocated preferences of 55.5-44.5 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 56-44 over the Coalition (out from 52-48), and a lead of 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows (out from 52.5-47.5). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1585.
Conversely, the monthly Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result of the term, down five on the primary vote to 26% with the Coalition up four to 26%, One Nation down two to 23% and the Greens up one to 13%, with an undecided component accounting for 5%. The Coalition leads the pollster’s 2PP+ measure by 50-45, after Labor led 48-47 last time. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 32% and down three to 41%. The regular national mood question has the “right direction” response down five to a new low of 23%, with wrong direction up six to a new high of 59%. The full report has further questions on workplace relations, social media and the “manosphere”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a ample of a bit over 1000, though details are not yet available.
Socratessays:
Friday, September 4, 2026 at 1:22 pm
Entropy
Apologies. I have corrected my post at 1:15pm and removed your name.
I stand by my view that our system of funding road infrastructure is under strain, and needs reform.
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That’s fine, TM’s habit of placing a line dividing his post has caught many of us out at times. When quoting a repost thread that involves one of his line divided posts.
Socrates says:
Friday, September 4, 2026 at 1:15 pm
“As I have said before Australia really needs to look closely at moving to a system of road user charges for all vehicles”
So, you are against tolls but want the government to put a toll charge on all vehicles. Got it.
@newy boy
The latest Roy Morgan and Essential have the coalliton gaining ground. look at the trendline. It might not save the party come election time but it’s something Angus will point out at the party meeting room.
You are both right.
The UK is in a spot of bother because of a debt to GDP ratio of 100%. The UK’s fly-now-and-pay-later strategy has reached the pay-later stage. The UK bond market is not an island.
What is happening to bond markets globally is also affecting the UK bond market.
I don’t see much coming from Burnham that will affect the bond market basics.
Entropy says Friday, September 4, 2026 at 1:10 pm
Of the US economy. I don’t think he gives a flying F about the world economy.
Most modern economies have debt issues, although the US budget deficit is probably in a league of its own. Maybe there needs to be a reappraisal of tax collection?
One of the things that make life tricky for governments and the bond market, is that there’s going to be one hell of a backlash if governments do decide to cut spending in responce to fears in the bond market. For example Burnham has the option of cutting back the Triple lock pension but that would set of a firestorm pollticaly for him. So this means that governments globally don’t have many options nor easy ones when it comes to reassuring the bond markets.
When it comes to a fight between the bond market and governments, always bet on the bond market.
At this rate I’m expecting to Trump to declare the Bond Market antifa via EO
Boerwar says:
Friday, September 4, 2026 at 1:32 pm
“I don’t see much coming from Burnham that will affect the bond market basics.”
You obviously haven’t been paying attention to Burnham’s promises.
Let’s see how his budget goes. He is committed to massive increases in spending or he has to break most of his promises.
“Of the US economy. I don’t think he gives a flying F about the world economy.”
I’m counting SOH issue and his tariffs, as world economy effecting events.
So, how much of an effect does this bond sell-off have on the Australian economy.
Asha says:
Friday, September 4, 2026 at 1:47 pm: So, how much of an effect does this bond sell-off have on the Australian economy.
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Our bond interest rates have risen as well to match international markets.
June 29 4.7% A week ago 5.092% Now 5.16%
The bond market strife is primarily a result of the Americans having $32 trillion worth of government debt owed to someone other than the government and running a massive government deficit that means the amount is increasing rapidly. The US federal budget has $6 trillion in spending and only $4.2 trillion in revenue. There ain’t no way they are going to pay off the debt with a deficit like that. The issue is structural in America.
Then Japan gets looked at because it has a massive amount of debt as well (Over $10 trillion). This has been a known issue for a long time but the can keeps getting kicked down the road but it is starting to look like they are running out of road. So there is fear that the Japanese government is going to flog off the $1.2 trillion in US bonds they own to deal with the issue.
After that everyone looks at the rest of developed world and goes “gee there is a lot of government debt out there; how are going to pay it all off?”. They look at France and go, there is a structural issue there with potentially a non-conventional government going to be elected next year. They look at Italy and go “lots of debt there”, it is structural too. Look at the UK, same issue ($4 trillion). Australia’s being hit but we don’t have anywhere near as much debt.
Where the time under Liz Truss is different than now is the budget Truss introduced would have made their debt and deficit issue much, much worse. The UK alone was getting punished then whereas everyone is getting burnt now.
Asha – Interest rates will rise here. If you can lend AUD to the government for 5.2% with no risk, then lending to an Australian bank will require a significantly higher rate to account for the risk.
Higher rates means less capital expenditure and less household spending by those with loans.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Friday, September 4, 2026 at 2:01 pm
The bond market strife is primarily a result of the Americans having $32 trillion worth of government debt owed to someone other than the government and running a massive government deficit that means the amount is increasing rapidly.
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Having “$32 trillion worth of government debt owed” is one thing. Having it owed to other countries you continue to piss of with your stupidity is another. Yet Trump continues to do so.
I should note that overnight it looks like the BOJ spent a lot of USD in an intervention to drive up the Yen. They can only do that so many times before they run out of cash.
Entropy – Surprisingly not that much is owed to foreign governments anymore. Around about $8 trillion. The rest is mostly held by private investors like pension funds, insurance companies, banks, etc.
FUBAR
I am not talking about what Burnham is talking about. It is what he is doing. Actually as opposed to apparently.
Burnham is a breath of fresh air.