Three days out from the state’s highly anticipated Secret Harbour by-election, The West Australian reports on a DemosAU poll that has One Nation up three points since June to 21%, with Labor steady on 33%, the Liberals down two to 21% and the Nationals up one to 4%, and the Greens steady on on 12%. A two-party preferred measure based on previous election preference flows has Labor’s lead over the Coalition out from 53-47 to 54-46. Roger Cook’s positive rating is down one to 34%, with neutral up three to 39% and negative down two to 27%; Basil Zempilas is down one to 30%, up two to 37% and down one to 33%; and Cook’s lead as preferred premier is out from 44-33 to 46-32. The poll was published August 6 to 25 from a sample of 658. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the full release that will shortly be published on the pollster’s website.
Nothing in the way of a poll has emerged from Secret Harbour, the closest thing being a straw poll of 120 voters conducted on the first day of early voting by The West Australian, which found 50% voting for One Nation, 27.5% for Labor and 12% for Liberal (and The Australian reported that “more than half” of those it asked there said they had voted One Nation). A similar exercise by The West Australian during last year’s state campaign overstated Liberal support over multiple seats by not less than 10 points and in some cases by more than 20.
How-to-vote cards are available on the Electoral Commission site. Ten out of 16 candidates offer preference recommendations: Libertarians, Australian Christians and independent Paul Howard all have One Nation second and Liberal higher than Labor; the Liberals have One Nation third behind Australian Christians; and only the Greens, Animal Justice and independent Peter D. Dunne are favourable to Labor.
This should be tight by the numbers, demographics and the fact it’s a by-election. It’s not helped by Labor’s candidate selection either.
A bare hold of under 50.5 to Labor is my median estimate but I give One Nation between a 40% and 50% chance.
For what it’s worth, I treat the inside baseball from the articles here rather skeptically. One Nation are known to talk themselves up and Labor tends to play down expectations before elections. Still, ignoring the noise, this looks like a hard contest for Labor. Any win would be good, although no doubt the news will talk up any swing by One Nation.
Frantic politics!
Certain newspapers are set to be extremely right, highly speculative but certainly problem gamblers.
An unnamed source tips a winner! umm!
Hmmm weird by labor.First panic early on by state labor via crazy amounts promised including on a railway station ,reeked of desperation.
Then Cook bagging Albo every second day over GST does not match the statement from state labor that this was always a Albo -One nation fight.
If they get rolled the state gov failures in housing like feds damaging.
It’s the population Ponzi scheme from fed labor ,had years to fix it but prop prices went out of control and Labor recently slammed the tax changes through.
Now if they lose today in a dead housing market losing value they will not as Albo is aware, drop the population numbers much because it will crash the housing market.
Wedged themselves, ironically Should have booted a year ago 80k visa overstayers and 80k relatives of students hogging accommodation.
Now one nation is rampant and people are more angry about housing/population.VIC election a potential One nation rout handing libs via pref- government.
Mind you if labor wins today it will be business as usual.
Also libs candidate layed down deader than an Egyptian mummy and labor candidate appears a dud.
State libs if One nation win will have a serious competitive force against it and if libs fail they will have to explain the failure of their strategy.Weird.
After a bit of reading up on the seat to start my day, I’ll go with the following
Labor sub 30, maybe 27
One Nation just behind on 25
Liberals, thanks to the donkey vote, 14
Greens 8
Assorted “left”others 8 as well (reducing the Greens vote)
Assorted “right” others 6
Turnout sub 90 although it’s a high profile by-election so might sneak just above
2pp will be fascinating I’ll say 50/50
If the mood on the doors is right and not just expectation management, the anti-Albo vote , despite it being a state by-election (and poor candidate selection), gets One Nation over the line in a thriller
Actually think this is a meaningless by election. Like Farrer, SA the result will not change govt. so an ideal opportunity to register a protest, especially in a declining housing market (main driver of state elections), rising inflation, rising interest rates. Prediction ALP high 20s (28), Libs mid teens (17), ON mid thirties (34), Greens low teens (12) Dope heads the highest of the others vote (9). ALP v ON 51-49. Most interesting thing will be Lib preferences – if they flow stronger than expected to ALP the LNP federally may begin a campaign against ON, but it goes the other way will they be more open to a coalition ? The Victorian state election is a far more meaningful contest. If ON vote remains in the mid to low 20s when there is a genuine case for a change of govt., then the ON vote is solid and it is a whole new ball game.
If “hard being green ” thinks its going to be close, the opposite will occur
Hard Being Green @ #54 Saturday, August 29th, 2026 – 7:35 am
I would guess the result is already pretty well in via pre-polling
I’m not making light of a possible issue, however I wonder how this is all going down locally with ON acolytes. Or is it a nonissue?
“Western Australia has not been entirely “Asianified” because its historical ties to British and South African migration remain visually and statistically dominant. Nevertheless, fueled by the mining sector and proximity to the Indian Ocean, WA is transitioning into a distinctively Indo-Asian multicultural society.”
Centre for population.
I don’t think either the state or federal government is treating this as meaningless – WA Labor appears to have spent up to its campaign cap. Obviously, the result will not change the government, but the extent of the protest vote and the resilience of the major party vote are politically significant.
I don’t believe there is a substantial groundswell of white nationalism. There are, however, genuine concerns about immigration levels and whether existing housing, infrastructure and services can accommodate them. Unaddressed grievances can be redirected into racial and nationalist sentiment, which is precisely why governments must confront the underlying causes.
Which would be why only about 60% voted NO in the referendum. Which would be why ON is running at a sudden third of the vote.
Talk about porky pies.
Closing gender pay gap. Superannuation paid on parental leave. Extended Childcare payments. Extended parental leave. Fee-free TAFE. Support for rises in the minimum wage. Rapid wages increases at the lowest paid levels in feminized industries. Same work same pay. Super paid on pay day. Protections for gig workers.
White nationalism in action: by way of the leader of the national Liberal Party organizational wing.
https://citynews.com.au/2026/war-memorial-not-the-place-to-dwell-on-frontier-wars/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
BW Labor has put the cart before the horse. There is no point putting a referendum on things like the Voice to an electorate which is stressed out and feel that they are not really being looked after. Labor needs to improve fairness more broadly before it puts more symbolic fairness issues to the electorate.
I appreciate a large part of the electorate is reactive given the broader context but it hasn’t come out of nothing.
Had a bit of a think (probably more a thought bubble).
My guess…
* ON 35
* ALP 30
* LIB 12 (No Nats candidate)
* GRN 6 (I think a lot of Greens will vote Labor in order to try and block Hanson/Herdegen)
* Others 17 (sprayed around everywhere)
Final 2PP – ON 52% (on the basis of a disciplined Lib pref flow, and the bulk of the indies are minor right wingers).
If anyone else wants to have a go, I can collate. It’s not a gotcha exercise. Just a bit of mucking around on the side.
My random guess is:
Labor 33%
ON 33%
Liberal 12%
Greens 7%
Others 15%
2PP ON 51.5% Labor 48.5%
Re Nadia @12:01.
My guess on those numbers for Labor 2PP:
0 (One Nation first, prefs not distributed)
+ 30
+ 3 (about 25% of Libs preference Labor ahead of One Nation)
+ 5
+ 10 (guess – favours Labor slightly because One Nation hoovers up the far right minor vote)
= 48%
If you see SA’s Election and Farrer by election, the No Vote to the Voice Referendum tends to performs around 15-20% higher than One Nation vs non-Right in TPP. For SA Election, the ones that have bigger gaps for No and One Nation TPP tends to be non-white migrant heavy areas. Polling booths on this seat have No Vote at high 60s% (might actually be slightly higher due to early voting) so it might actually be a narrow ONP win and a large chance the Voice Referendum results in white heavy polling booths could be a good indicator.
From the West , I’m hazarding the formal vote …
ON 35
ALP 35
LIB 14
Green 4
Others 12
What will be interesting is the Liberal preferences , could be as high as 45 to 50 to Labor if there is such an Orange tsunami
The sundry collection of mostly serial indies will lose their deposit , but Canabis might outperform the Greens going in last state election and Christians also do quite well in the West especially in Hastie territory …
This is an electoral opportunity not to be missed for good old Aussie tall poppy snipping and general grievance release .
ON to win on preferences
Tally so far, with 6 hours to go.
POSTER- WINNER- 2PP- ON- ALP- LNP- GRN- OTH
Arange ON 51.5
Bird ALP 50-55 30’S 30’S TEENS’ 10
Boerwar ALP 55 22 34 19 11 14
Adda ALP 50.5
HBG ON 50.01 25 27 14 8 26
Paul J Baker ALP 51 34 28 17 12 9
nadia ON 52 35 30 12 6 17
mj ALP 51.5 33 33 12 7 15
Hensman ON 50.8 35 35 14 4 12
Anyone wants to change anything, drop a line on the site.
Hensman I’ve calculated a rough 2PP for you based on steve’s calcs. above. If you want it changed, no probs.
Secret Harbour Prediction, really just a bit of bs:
ALP 34
ONP 31.5
LIB 16
GRN 10.5
OTH 9
ALP/ONP 52.3/47.7
54-46 win to ALP.
Thanks Nadia, just to clarify my “26 other” includes no shows, I expect turnout to be around 90%
It’s perfectly set up for a protest vote, so i guess it’s plausible ON will get over the line. Your numbers look about right to me, Nadia, although I think the Liberals might poll a point or two higher, but also think the Liberal preferences flows might be a little more favourable to the ALP than suggested, so i guess One Nation wins somewhere between 51 and 52.
But I wouldn’t have a clue. I just looks like the kind of seat that swung hard to One Nation around Adelaide.
Charles has pinched the 54-46 margin to the ALP so I will have 53-47 win to Ms Tree of the ALP.
(A bit of poetry to go with it)
The West Australian will be standing by to drop the anticipated Ben Robert Smith wins Secret harbour by election opps I mean One Nation wipes the board in Secret Harbour Labor forced to grovel front page into the first edition.
Will we see Peta Credlin beaming out from News 24 tonight as Labor crash’s to worst defeat in 100 years and Albo resigns taking full responsibility for not turning up as he was supposed to?
What is it with the super rich supporting ultra-right wing parties – and conning the working class into voting with them?
I’m wish casting a resounding 55/45 win to the ALP as people in the booth will see just how revolting ON is, despite the relentless publicity they get from vested interests, sorry the MSM.
Based on the South Australian election results in seats where the Liberals came third in the 2PP ALP-ON contests, I would expect the Lib to ON preference flow to be about two thirds of the Lib tally. I have no opinion as to how many votes each candidate will get or whom the ultimate winner will be.
I’ll amend my earlier post from midday.
* ON 40%
* ALP 31%
* LIB 12%
* GRN 6%
* Oth 11%
2PP: ON 53-47
I’ll probably regret this post once we get to the 10% mark of the count.
Current 2PP track of posters:
Bird of Paradox ALP 50-55
Boerwar ALP 55
MABWM ALP 55
Charles ALP 54
GrannyAnny ALP 53
Darcy ALP 52.3
mj ALP 51.5
Paul James Baker ALP 51
Adda ALP 50.5
Hard Being Green ON 50.01
Hensman ON 50.8
Arange ON 51.5
nadia ON 53
Cut-off in 90 mins
I think the Liberal vote is going to completely tank, under the “division is death” rule.
The squabbling between Zempilas & Hastie during this campaign is unlikely to go down well with voters.
This shouldn’t work out too badly, first results should be coming through as the footy is winding up
Let’s go Dees
Been down in Port Kennedy the last 5 or 6 hours. Definitely seems to be huge One Nation support and if any outer metro seat is going to fall to them, this is it. Sadly, I think they’ll win quite comfortably. One Nation 53.5 on two party preferred.
Dr Doolittle (If you’re floating around), what’s your read on this by-election.
You’re WA based.
Malcolm Mackerras penned an article on 13-Aug declaring a Labor win.
Link: https://switzer.com.au/hansons-poison-pill-why-labor-should-win-another-wa-seat-it-has-no-right-to/
The betting odds also favour Labor (Georgia Tree).
What’s your gut feel?
Hard Being Green says:
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 6:36 pm
This shouldn’t work out too badly, first results should be coming through as the footy is winding up
Let’s go Dees.
=========
Carlton, not Melbourne.
Anyway, back to the main event. The Tally Room calculated a flow of preferences from Lib to ON at around 66% based on the S.A. election.
Farrer had no ALP candidate.
James Campbell in the Herald Sun said the Lib to ON pref flow was around 90%, a couple of weeks ago – but that was based upon respondent allocated preferences.
I’m guessing tonight it might be up around the 75% mark, maybe a bit higher.
The by-election tonight doesn’t mean that much, but the preference flow will be fascinating.
We get to find out the “real deal”…ie: what voters do in the privacy of the ballot booth.
I think LNP preferences will flow at around 60% to One Nation, a lot who are ok with them will switch their first preference vote across
Prediction
ALP 52%
70-75% is my guess for preference flows from Lib to ON. It heavily depends on just how low the Lib vote is (if the “default conservative” vote has entirely shifted to ON or not). The remaining “holdout” Lib supporters will not have too strong of a flow but this is still a strong seat for them, which implies they should receive a favourable flow. The minor parties other than Greens should also be mostly good for them (LC might be 50-50)
I have a position that took both Labor and ON depending on the odds over the last few weeks and now would have a net result of 10x the stake if ON win. That will be some consolation for a Labor loss if that happens.
New thread.
Don’t know if you know these guys, but they ran a youtube livestream of your site for the election.
Probably no big deal – if anything extra publicity I suppose. Anyway for your info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOga4I8dPB4