Three days out from the state’s highly anticipated Secret Harbour by-election, The West Australian reports on a DemosAU poll that has One Nation up three points since June to 21%, with Labor steady on 33%, the Liberals down two to 21% and the Nationals up one to 4%, and the Greens steady on on 12%. A two-party preferred measure based on previous election preference flows has Labor’s lead over the Coalition out from 53-47 to 54-46. Roger Cook’s positive rating is down one to 34%, with neutral up three to 39% and negative down two to 27%; Basil Zempilas is down one to 30%, up two to 37% and down one to 33%; and Cook’s lead as preferred premier is out from 44-33 to 46-32. The poll was published August 6 to 25 from a sample of 658. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the full release that will shortly be published on the pollster’s website.
Nothing in the way of a poll has emerged from Secret Harbour, the closest thing being a straw poll of 120 voters conducted on the first day of early voting by The West Australian, which found 50% voting for One Nation, 27.5% for Labor and 12% for Liberal (and The Australian reported that “more than half” of those it asked there said they had voted One Nation). A similar exercise by The West Australian during last year’s state campaign overstated Liberal support over multiple seats by not less than 10 points and in some cases by more than 20.
How-to-vote cards are available on the Electoral Commission site. Ten out of 16 candidates offer preference recommendations: Libertarians, Australian Christians and independent Paul Howard all have One Nation second and Liberal higher than Labor; the Liberals have One Nation third behind Australian Christians; and only the Greens, Animal Justice and independent Peter D. Dunne are favourable to Labor.
It’s going to be a fascinating by-election on Saturday
I’m wondering if some Liberal voters will vote for One Nation, not because they want them to win but because they want to trigger a leadership challenge and Hastie to take over?
Yes HBG, it will be a very interesting by-election, if anything to give us all an indication of how the ON vote is going in metro Australia.
In S.A. they polled well in some Labor held metro electorates, but not enough to pick them up.
They polled well in Nepean (outer southern area of Melb), but Labor didn’t stand.
They didn’t put up a candidate in Stafford (QLD), and Labor didn’t put up a candidate in Farrer (although that’s regional not metro).
Difficult to assess who will win this seat.
I’m guessing both Labor & ON getting a primary in the 30’s, but from there onwards – who knows.
Regardless, looking fwd to Sat evening. 8PM kickoff PB time with the time zones.
Yes definitely an interesting by-election with national and state implications. Feel like it is a toss up – if it were a general election I’d be fairly confident of a Labor hold but voters may be sufficiently fed up to elect One Nation as a warning shot to the government.
Agreed, it’s set up for a protest vote. I’m dubious about reading too much into any result.
“They polled well in Nepean (outer southern area of Melb), but Labor didn’t stand.”
Therefore the important metric is the Liberal versus ON vote. Which was for primaries here 39% Liberal to 25% ON. Which is obviously much better then they historically get but much worse than they expected to get here. ON didn’t even make the 2CP here which was between the Liberals and a Teal type Independent.
ONP had a very good first few days on pre-poll but the PPVC is in the northern part of the seat which is probably a better area for them, the day vote from the southern mortgage belt area could be much better for Labor. Sounds like the Liberals are happy to sit on the sidelines, they might poll below 15%
I still don’t get why the Libs don’t want to fight. They exist to fight elections. Since 1944 and before that in other guises.
They have fought elections when they were bound to lose. And fought in by-elections because if nothing else the voters see you missing, may never return. And this is the case here.
I always think of the likes of the old Ted Mack or the modern teals, if you cede the seat once the locals will never be welded to you again.
I think the Whinge Party will accrue enough votes- perhaps via preferences – to see ON get up.
The Liberals will not get a look in and cranky Liberals may well decide to throw good sense to the wind and “give ON a go” and they will be joined by similar types who might normally vote Labor.
In any event the West newspaper is more or less cheering ON with nice pictures in their daily blurb.
The stoush between Hastie and Baz barely rated a mention in the West and it is clearly the anti-Albanese/anti-Labor stance is still full on with the editorial outlook of the paper.
A kind of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
As many have pointed out, the West’s clout, politically, is not what is used to be as I would suspect most adults in WA either no long get/read the West – getting news, on-on line from many other sources.
Labor, should win, but as many here have pointed out – who can tell?
Don’t think too much notice – beyond the local electorate – should be given to any outcome.
As Labor bashers keep reminding people while 25% of the electorate may vote ON, 75% will not – but preference voting being what it is then ON could win.
Currently the Liberals – and the Nationals are in dire straits which why Hastie hammered Big Baz.
The DemosAU poll has finally turned up on their website.
Link: https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/DemosAU-WA-Poll-August-2026.pdf
Very good ratings for Premier Cook.
Of note, on page 11, are the demographic breakdowns.
The Outer Metro vote (to get to the point with this particular by-election):
* ALP 34
* ON 23
* LIB 16
* GRN 12
* Oth/Ind 12
* NAT 3
This poll doesn’t reflect the hate I read in the West Australian and WA Today newspaper.
The Premier holds a thin “+7” approval rating, whereas the Libs are in negative territory and the One Nation leader has a rating of “minus 15”.
I guess we’ll find out on Saturday whether this poll is dodgy or correct.
Thanks Nadia
The poll suggests Labor will hold on with a primary vote around 30
One Nation mid 20’s
Liberals mid teens
Greens double figures
It’ll be interesting to see the preference flows
No worries HBG.
Those numbers are for the outer metro area, but they don’t suggest any major problems for Labor despite all the hype in the media.
Prem Cook comes across to me as a fighter whereas the Opposition Leader – Zempilas – gosh I wouldn’t place bets on him in a boxing ring.
Hoping poster Arange might slip by and have a look at the numbers.
Also, ignore that other poster who had a dig at you on the main thread today. Just BS.
Commentary from a Professor at Notre Dame Uni…
Political analyst and Notre Dame University executive dean Martin Drum told AAP…
“I think they’ll win it comfortably.”
Link: https://www.corowafreepress.com.au/national/one-nation-tipped-to-win-by-election-in-safe-labor-seat/
Water off a ducks back Nadia
Sounds like it might be closer than expected
My tip: Secret Harbour will deliver a lot of egg on a lot of faces.
Whatever the result it will not be a resounding endorsement of the status quo. I don’t sense there is a significant radical right-wing shift in WA either One Nation is just seen as the go to protest vehicle right now.
That could develop into more durable support, but I suspect much of its present rise is dissatisfaction with the major parties rather than wholehearted identification with One Nation.
I wouldn’t be completely surprised if One Nation won Secret Harbour. This part of Perth might look pretty safe for Labor vs the Libs, but an independent took Reece Whitby to preferences in Baldivis at the 2017 landslide, and another one damn near won Kwinana (Roger Cook’s seat) in 2008 and 2013, so there’s a few precedents. Then there’s Paul Papalia’s personal vote – a good 10% for this seat voted for him in March 2025 and then for Andrew Hastie federally two months later, so there’s that. Without him, Warnbro (as it was then) may well have gone Liberal in 2013 like so many other outer suburban seats did – if that had happened, not so many people would be calling it a safe seat.
Meanwhile there’s federal implications, both real ones and the fever dreams of the West. It’ll be a “SHATTERING DEFEAT FOR ALBO!!1!” if Labor lose it (they seem to be aware state Labor is untouchable so they’re directing their venom at the feds). Back in the real world, I don’t think Albanese will lose too much sleep over the possibility of not winning Canning, which Labor last won in 1998. Hastie might actually have to be worried – if he wants to be federal Lib leader he needs to hold his seat.
Indeed MJ, the protest vote is real but sadly they’re looking to the wrong party for the answers. While I wish people would look to the Greens I’m wondering if the door is open to a new party to fill the gap. CSA style but much better organised
BoP while Albo may not be losing sleep over the result, I can’t imagine he’d be all that happy if it drives Hastie to push for a leadership change
I think this by-election has the potential for greater federal fallout than most
What does the military vote do, will there be a BRS factor in that support for One Nation?
How strongly do Liberal preferences flow?
A fascinating night coming up
Labor outed as cheaters….
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/secret-harbour-by-election-bitter-war-escalates-as-one-nation-call-in-lawyers-over-alleged-labor-breach–c-22786499
No respect for locals.
If Labor are really polling 33% they should win.
Hard Being Green, I think people just want observable solutions whatever the party. I don’t think any of the established parties appear to know how to keep a fragmented electorate collectively happy so people will just keep migrating to protest parties or independents while things remain muddled and uncertain.
In that context there is definitely room for new parties – we definitely live in interesting, uncertain times. At this point I’m looking for a competent centre-left independent because I don’t see real leadership coming out from the existing parties.
Professor Drum has done very well for himself indeed. Very well deserved a fine fellow.
I find it striking that this critical by-election was triggered by the retirement of the minister responsible for Corrective Services—another major arm of the Department of Justice. I resigned from Courts and Tribunal Services after experiencing persistent dysfunction, so the wider governance of Justice is very much an electoral-accountability issue for me.
If the DemosAU poll is right, one nation should win ~51.5%.
That “seat poll” and the keys both don’t really point to an obvious labor win.
Bye for a month or so.
Nadia – Thanks for highlighting the regional breakdown, which is clearly more relevant for this by-election. I disagree One Nation did well in Nepean given the high expectations they set – only to come third after the distribution of preferences.
One Nation will likely be much more competitive in Secret Harbour, but can they win? It will probably be close, though interestingly betting markets have Labor as the clear favourite.
Many thanks Arange.
I’ll do some hard thinking tomorrow. I keep thinking of Werribee (2025) where there was a hard swing against the incumbent state gov’t but they still managed to hang on…just.
I’ll put my thinking cap on overnight.
I’m happy to keep a tally of posters predictions.
Along the lines of…
* Winner, &
* 2PP margin, &
* If you want to speculate on primaries, no probs.
I think it might be 30’s evens for both Labor & ON, with Libs & Greens both in the teens.
Final 2PP – A dogs breakfast.
This by-election will give a good indication of where the One Nation vote is tracking in metropolitan areas, & the Lib preference distribution will be of major interest. (Tally room calculated it at 66% ON, 34% ALP for the S.A. Election).
I believe the pollsters in Victoria will look at this result closely, and may adjust their 2PP calculations in the leadup to the Victorian election.
Important by-election.
HBG:
Ya reckon? If the Libs come a distant third here, it forces Hastie to concentrate on his own seat next federal election. He did that last time and it worked for him, but it’d be more difficult if he’s party leader. Who knows, Albanese could get two elections in a row where the opposition leader loses their seat, which is rare! Neville Wran did that in NSW, and I can’t think of any other recent examples.
I notice that there is the usual Bludger wishcasting going on.
Who benefits from the donkey vote?
Just did a bit of a skim of ‘The Australian’. NSW ICAC is not a thing. Apparently.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/a-storm-is-brewing-south-of-perth-and-it-ain-t-the-weather-20260827-p60s85.html
Hmmm they mention the lib candidate first time anyone could find him.
About 45% voted prepoll.
Last name of reporter -Hastie!
pp, putting your shit stirring aside, what do you reckon the numbers will look like? Are you game to have a real world stab?
This fellow comes across as a typical Liberal candidate and doesn’t seem to have much in common with Hanson.
A cynical person might think that he would hope to be elected to parliament under the ON banner in a traditional Labor seat and then desert ON and join the Liberals.
Toorak Toff: Libs on top of the ballot, Labor a bit further down, One Nation near the bottom.
Boerwar, you seem lost. The main thread is over there. Go pollute that.
Whoever’s operating the Pied Piper bot: a 30 second google could tell you Andrew and Hamish Hastie aren’t related.
The secret about Secret Harbour is that there is no harbour.
A wetland that was, in the day, touted to be developed into a marina area ended up not going ahead.
Nadia: prediction / gut feeling goes like so.
Labor and One Nation in the low 30s, Libs in the teens, Greens about 10%, Legalise Cannabis the only other party to keep their deposit (they came in ahead of the Greens at the Rockingham by-election a few years ago, and also got some strong booth results at the federal election last year). 2cp: Labor to win, somewhere in the 0-5% bracket.
My prediction: Labor with a primary of 34, ON with a primary of 22, the Liberals with a primary of 19, the Greens with a primary of 11, with informals and odds and sods to hoover up the rest.
Turnout will be around 93%.
Labor to win the seat with 55 v 45 for ON.
PaulTu
It is the only seat in Australia named after a Barbara Cartland novel.
Mike Newman is son of Howard’s friend and former ABC Chairman Maurice Newman.
Taylor has visited the electorate during the campaign, I believe. If the result goes the way I envisage it will be his second swingeing by-election loss in a row.
He will be all over the Victorian state election, trying to grab some unearned kudos.
J
Newman can speak Japanese and Hanson can’t name the Japanese prime minister.
Talented people like Farley are going to rub Hanson up the wrong way.
And vice versa.
Shambles will abound.
My prediction.
ON will lose.
The bullshit will continue.
Herald/Sun headline.
Swing to ON in WA, Victorian Labor in trouble.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/08/secret-harbour-by-election-prospects.html
Secret Harbour By-Election: Prospects and Live.
Live comments from 6 pm WA time tomorrow night.
What’s the story with The West reporting that an anonymous, senior WA Labor MP saying “we’ve lost this” and that the party ins bracing for a loss?
I think people have probably reached the point they will just vote ON as a kick up the arse for WA Labor. Even if Labor hold it I don’t see any scenario where they can dress it up as a ringing endorsement of their current stewardship.
I mean the state government is trying to keep people onside but is not willing to fully confront redundant operating models in the organisations it oversees and people are predictably losing trust in them.
Labor genuinely deserves to lose it they are completely disconnected from their labour roots in practical workplace terms but we’ll see what voters have to say. The Labor party as it currently operates is not a genuine party of workers in a meaningful and tangible way.
The locality Green vote in the WA polling seems curious?!?
Inner City 10%
Outer City 12%
Rural/Regional 15%
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/secret-harbour-by-election-labor-accused-of-abandoning-safe-seat-while-one-nation-dodges-policy-questions-c-22788808
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/labor-faces-historic-loss-to-one-nation-in-safe-wa-seat-byelection/news-story/32e2bb15cf0861147550b69c6665a92f