It’s been a particularly busy few days on the poll front, with Newspoll’s three-week cycle coinciding with YouGov’s fortnightly cycle and Essential Research’s monthly cycle and RedBridge Group thrown in for good measure. The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov parts company with the others in finding One Nation continuing to rise, at the expense of the hapless Coalition rather than Labor. Labor is up three to 29% and One Nation two to 30%, the latter a new record for the party from YouGov. The Coalition is down four to 17%, two points below its previous nadir around the time of the February leadership change, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor is down one to 36% and steady on 47%. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister are out from 43-38 to 44-35 against Taylor, and from 48-41 to 49-40 against Pauline Hanson. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1502.
The Guardian reports on the monthly Essential Research poll, with which the pollster’s data feature has been updated, though its full report with all its attitudinal questions will come later today. Inclusive of a steady uncommitted result of 5%, it has Labor up a point to 30%, One Nation down two to 26% and the Greens down one to 10%. The drop for One Nation might be thought especially significant coming from a monthly series, since the BludgerTrack trend measure records them gaining two-and-a-half points over this period.
The pollster’s 2PP+ continues to be unusually strong for the Coalition, who recover a 48-46 lead with the balance undecided, after Labor gained a 48-47 lead last month – my rough measure based on 2025 election flows has Labor ahead 51.3-48.7, out from 50.6-49.4. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 51%. Contrary to other recent polling, Angus Taylor is up three on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 37%.
The Guardian report relates negative responses to various One Nation positions: 15% in favour of privatising the ABC, 11% for shutting down SBS, 20% for ending multiculturalism, 18% for withdrawing from the United Nations, 18% for revising workplace laws in favour of employers, and 25% for stopping the renewables transition and focusing on fossil fuels. Only 26% were in favour of the party’s position on banning abortion after 20 weeks, but results were somewhat more conservative than when the question was last posed in November 2024: the 72% supporting abortion being legal in some or all cases was down seven points, and the 28% holding it should be illegal in some or all cases was up seven. Fifty per cent said they were concerned about One Nation being backed by Gina Rinehart, and 45% were concerned the party would “turn Australians against each other”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample that will have been a bit over 1000.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the biggest hit to One Nation of them all, down five-and-a-half points to 26%, with Labor up one to 28%, the Coalition up four to 21.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation on a measure based on respondent-allocated preferences is out from 51-49 to 53-47, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and unchanged at 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted last Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1639.
Further to my opining yesterday as to why the LNP is in the doldrums is a quote from Ross Gittens fine article in todays SMH.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/i-m-in-two-minds-about-climate-change-but-not-like-hanson-20260630-p60bcm.html
frednk, show me how the benefits are shared equitably within the unions, as opposed to a few gaining more then most…
Also heres a suggestion, a small suggestion, for governments; stop using platforms like facebook and twitter for government processes!
And more from the SMH confirming what provocative idiot Pauline Hanson is.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/pauline-hanson-visits-islamic-college-wearing-israeli-pin-20260630-p60bd5.html
Miskal says:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 9:58 am
frednk, first your assuming correlation, and 2nd why do I get the feeling that the majority of the extra tax payer spending ended up in the hands of a very, very, very small percentage of unionists…
The industry is not going to run on your vibes.
Ya well pretty clearly you have not dealt with a Melbourne building site, the allowances the trades get are pretty good.
My bitch is Electricians get paid better than engineers, it is a direct correlation to the success of the relative unions.
An(g)us got himself in some trouble when he stood on the back of a truck and impugned the efforts of firefighters. The LNP is so desperate that he has gone after a highly specific and toxic section of the voting public…horse lovers, more specifically those who see themselves as a rugged individual repeat with Akubra, Drizabone and stockwhip up in the Alpine wilderness.
Any interaction with this lot is going to do your head in, a mix of pony club and Hansonism where you absolutely love horses and consider the environment as just a backdrop to a picture of a horse.
Peter Cochran (past member for Eden Monaro) was a nice enough bloke but post-politics he runs a horse trekking business that feeds directly off the Man From Snowy River schtick and is a vocal advocate for feral animals in the high country.
Taylor chasing the votes of this mob will lose him any moderate voters left in the LNP.
WeWantPaulsays:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 10:22 am
The power to do something that is “widely circumvented” seems like a fairly ineffectual power to me.
Best we just give up and bow down before the Epstein class then. FMD we aren’t just one small country we are clearly one very small country with no ambition that is deeply deeply dumb.
If there is anyone one interested perhaps pick up Sarah Wynn-Wiiliams book ‘Careless People’ just to begin the threat assessment so we know what we are capitulating to. Don’t get me started on what capitulation to Musk means for Australia.
Have a great day!
_______
I hate it as much as anyone. What’s the actual proposal? Something that will work?
Miskal says:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 10:05 am
“Are you suggesting that we just ban Facebook, X, etc when inevitably they refuse to change their algorithms to suit one small country? Because that’s actually what you’re proposing. You (and SHY) are complaining about the widely circumvented child social media ban and effectively saying we need to have a widely circumvented adult social media ban instead.”
Ahhhh I see, so it isnt a lack of power, its a lack of political desire.
“Did the Greens stooges around here shift from “how dare Labor go after the CFMEU” to “boo Labor not doing enough about the CFMEU” when I was on holiday or something.”
Man, I seem to recall the Greens and others requesting due process; funny that…
So just to recap; Albo does have the power but your noting there would be a political cost (as opposed to your first comment), and now your attempting to pretend that the Greens argument wasnt based on due diligence, to defend from current concerns of corruption…
Cool.
____________
Just providing a counterpoint to Miskal/Lordbain/Greens spruiker du jour
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-29/chandler-mather-cfmeu-rally-labor-political-weapon-greens/104281726
As you were.
Omar Comin’
Fair enough. The Ord River scheme was just across the border in northern WA. But it was still a massive failure.
Oh shit… who was banging on about CFMEU & the Victorian Government..
ICAC reveals long-awaited inquiry into Liberals, councils and Catholic schools
Alexandra SmithJuly 1, 2026 — 10:42am
The Independent Commission Against Corruption has announced a blockbuster public inquiry in its long-running investigation into Sydney property developer Jean Nassif’s links to Liberal Party figures, councils and Catholic schools.
The watchdog on Wednesday confirmed that the chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW Dallas McInerney, Nassif, hotelier and banned political donor Michael O’Hara and “certain Strathfield councillors” would feature in the long-awaited inquiry.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/icac-reveals-long-awaited-inquiry-into-liberals-councils-and-catholic-schools-20251119-p5ngm6.html
A BLOCKBUSTER PUBLIC INQUIRY
@Miskal:
To force the social media companies to change their algorithms, like you and SHY demand?
Fuck no he does not.
It was my point that an ineffective and unpopular total ban is the only thing he would have the power to do, after SHY was just decrying the existing child social media ban as ineffective, and somehow you tried to twist that into Albo “having the power”.
As usual Miskal, your arguments are only impressive to someone who has no reading comprehension and doesn’t look at the comments being replied to.
Cartoons Europe
Matt
Pete Songi Somę Reform Character Testing
Patrick Blower
Morton Morland
Chapatte
Ella Baron
Banx
Del Rosso
Charlie Hebdo
“The Heat Wave plan from the right and the far right:” “Drown all the environmentalists”
“Deadly earthquake in Venezuela.” Maduro changes his mind.” “Please thank President Trump for saving my life.”
Joep Bertrams (for BW)
And Tjeerd Royaards too
George Riemann
Guy Venables
Jonsey
“As usual Miskal, your arguments are only impressive to someone who has no reading comprehension and doesn’t look at the comments being replied to.”
Ironic, given your ongoing lies about the position of the Greens about CFMEU, and also ignoring my points about basic actions by the government to stop using the products in question.
All in comments still accessible.
Also, I would note this started from a comment where you claimed SHY was after the algos, as opposed to what the Greens raised yesterday – https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/am/calls-for-inquiry-into-foreign-run-facebook-pages/106854104
But hey, you do you Arky
I am looking for where you are demanding due process for the current chatter about corruption in the Big Build and funnily enough I’m not finding it. I’m finding a lot of leaping to judgment which is more the normal style.
It’s almost like the demand to delay action and give more legal process for the CFMEU before was just an excuse to bash Labor like usual, and the ignoring legal process to demand more be done about the CFMEU now is….. oh, the same thing.
It looks like the Albanese govt has done fairly well in crafting the tax changes related to housing. Needed to be well thought out after the backdown in the Keating changes.
Labor should get the benefit from the current mild slowdown/downturn in house prices even tho its policies are not having much impact yet – apart from loud squealing from real estate trying to scare people.
How anyone could think higher real house prices into the future are a social benefit is a mystery. Most people will see through the whingers and spruikers and realise there needed to be changes.
@Miskal
Dearie me Miskal, you don’t need to work so hard to prove me right about you and not reading.
It started from your ally Hard Being Green saying that, not me.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/07/01/federal-polls-yougov-and-essential-research-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-4740153
Whoops!
You have a nice day now.
frednk
It is a strange position fro someone from The Greens to take.
Geoffrey Watson certainly did workers no favours with his back of the envelope calculation, to which he did not apply even the most basic for of reality checking: are Victoria’s building cost higher than elsewhere?
People who work with numbers have comprehensively debunked his figures and his reasoning, but then MSM want their scandal.
Note – this is only a comment of the Big Build.
HBG
It is so easy being Liberal, isn’t it?
You behave as if Greens will usher in heaven on earth. They why are Greens are not in power anywhere in the world?
Don’t behave like Hanson of Left.
You are on record saying that you won’t vote for ALP at state and federal or even preference them.
YouGov Poll for the UK covering 28-29 June (compared to their last on 21-22 June)
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_Results_260629_w.pdf
Reform: 24% (-1)
Labour: 20% (+2)
Conservative: 20% (=)
Green: 13% (-2)
Lib Dems: 13% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Reform UK: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 1% (+1)
Others: 2% (+1)
Greens call for immediate anti-corruption laws as fresh Big Build allegations show Labor failed to act
https://greens.org.au/vic/news/media-release/greens-call-immediate-anti-corruption-laws-fresh-big-build-allegations-show
“The Victorian Greens are calling on the Allan Government to immediately strengthen Victoria’s anti-corruption laws, saying there is no excuse to delay reform until after the election.
It follows new reports that companies working on Big Build projects continued making payments to alleged underworld figures despite repeated warnings to the government.
The Greens said the allegations expose the gap between Labor’s claims of having “zero tolerance” for corruption and its refusal to give IBAC the powers it needs to properly investigate where taxpayer money is going.
Earlier this month, Labor responded to the Integrity Oversight Committee (IOC) report, gave an “in principle” commitment to review IBAC’s powers in 2027.
The Greens say there is “no excuse” for delaying these reforms and are calling for Parliament to urgently strengthen IBAC by expanding its unworkable definition of corruption and giving the watchdog explicit powers to follow public money through government contracts and subcontracting arrangements.
The Greens say that the scale of these allegations are astonishing, and support a Royal Commission is what it takes to fully investigate but what will actually stop the ongoing corruption is fixing the laws to give IBAC the power to be a standing Royal Commission. “
Arky, I was pointing out people were happy to defend potentially corrupt behaviour because its their team.
No try though.
Also, I didnt realise I had to clearly define cause and effect from the moment of the big bang you jackass…
Only a royal commission can get to the bottom of mounting claims of misconduct on Victoria’s Big Build
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/30/victoria-big-build-royal-commission-jacinta-allan-ntwnfb
“It would have been different if Ibac – Victoria’s anti-corruption commission – had a broader remit. Ibac cannot currently investigate “grey corruption” – misconduct that is not necessarily criminal, where rules are bent or broken to benefit mates, political organisation or networks, where public funds are abused or misused. Conduct that is deeply damaging to public trust, and which Ibac’s counterparts in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia can investigate.
Every Ibac commissioner since its inception in 2013 has called for reform in this area, claiming to be hamstrung in the fight against corruption, reform which successive Victorian governments have resisted. Until now, with Jacinta Allan recently claiming she was taking “decisive action” to give Ibac the powers it needs, although not until the end of 2027 and after the next state election. Decisively too late.”
“Ukraine war briefing: Swedish defence maker Saab signs deal to deliver 16 fighter jets to Kyiv:
Defence maker Saab signs contract to deliver 16 Gripen E fighter aircraft to Ukraine in $24.6bn deal. What we know on day 1,589”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/01/ukraine-war-briefing-swedish-defence-maker-saab-signs-deal-to-deliver-16-fighter-jets-to-kyiv
Thanks Arky.
Useful insight
https://yapms.com/app?m=elsv6fozlmxdgfq
This is the YouGov/Sky News Australia poll mapped out.
… am struggling ATM with a vision of cow cockies strutting around with stockwhips up their “Alpine wildernesses”.
For one thing: which end?
I think when you say I started a claim, which was actually started by a different person of a different ideological persuasion on the same page of the thread, that’s not “cause and effect from the moment of the big bang”, that’s just you being wrong, called out on it, and as usual being completely unable to accept you were wrong.
And on top of being unable to cope with being shown to be wrong, throwing an insult. Very mature of you.
@ Thomas Brian Mutter looks like in the map that One Nation winning Calwell. One thing, that mostly wouldn’t happen given this seat has a large Muslim Population.
I will be very happy if 2026 SA State election result is repeated at federal level.
How would the Liberals be treated like when they do end up in the crossbench? Will they be treated like any other crossbencher, or will they still be treated as brutal and harshly as if they were the official opposition?
There is a whole range of things that could be tried. Like the wealth tax it is stupid to think an off the cuff idea is going to instantly defeat people who spent a fortune over decades and have whole industries devoted to ensuring tax legislation doesn’t do what it is supposed to do and then avoiding it both lawfully and in dubious ways if it does pass. Some significant effort thought and work needs to be done.
With the big platforms hit them where it hurts as appropriate.
Set standards, have fines, have an escalation towards banning. Based solely on the behaviour of Meta since their former employee blew the whistle on their ‘carelessness’ I’d be very comfortable with a complete meta ban in Australia. They are a dangerous and deliberately irresponsible company. But most Australians probably don’t even know how terrible they are, so the fine, escalation mechanism needs to in part build the public case against them.
Two revenue sources that can be hit are the using user data, usually just stolen for free, and advertising. Cut off those sources.
Start with a really bad actor like X (using AI to create criminalised material and spreading. People should get long jail sentences for that.
So ban it in Australia. Some percentage of people will avoid the ban, but some won’t.
Make it an offence for Australian companies directly or indirectly to post on or advertise on the platform, make any payments, directly or indirectly by the Australian entity non-deductible and subject to a penalty tax in addition equal to the non-deductible advertising payment.
At the end of the day if people VPN around the Australian rules, I’m not particularly concerned about it. Particularly if the measures for them to profit of stolen user data and advertising are effective then people who do use an VPN will not get an Australian experience that is essentially indistinguishable from the current Australian experience, the revenue sources are cutoff or diminished as far as possible.
I wouldn’t even make it illegal for Australian users to use it, just restrict the ability of the platform to monetise Australia.
And these aren’t well thought out ideas, they haven’t been stress tested with former insiders etc etc, you don’t solve hard problems easily, you’ve got to work at it.
But not trying is capitulation and I don’t like the idea of Australia as an intellectually lazy, work adverse mob who quit at the first sign something might be less than trivially easy. And that is the vibes the stooges were giving off this morning.
A RC won’t get to the bottom of how big is the corruption on the The Big Build.
But the government is going to take hits over allowing it to fester.
No one can really say how much the corruption has cost and how much the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs have made off of it.
It will either bring down the government or it won’t.
Jacinta Allan directing people to work with unions isn’t in itself unusual. This goes to my theory that she has been too trusting of people she sees as political allies and bad actors have taken advantage of the relationship.
Poor Ross Gittins.
Doesn’t he know that US people are associated with a LNP sister party, Republican party, which is completely opposed to science.
My experience is that most people are in favour of science when it confirms their views. All other science is ‘just a theory’.
“Boerwar says:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 8:14 am
Trust a Greens to sleazy slag Labor with big lies?
Sure can!
Hard Being Greens says:
Spend your tax cuts wisely workers, $5 per week. A supermarket sandwich or flavoured milk
Setting aside the huge increases in the lowest pay rates under the Labor Government…
The Albanese Labor Government has legislated five consecutive rounds of tax cuts and relief measures for Australian workers, directly benefiting low-income earners
Stage 3 Tax Cuts (July 2024). This reduced the lowest tax rate from 19% down to 16% and established a new 30% middle bracket, leaving low-income earners approximately $804 better off than the original legislation
Further Rate Reductions (July 2026): The lowest tax bracket rate was reduced further from 16% to 15%, providing additional ongoing relief.
Instant Tax Deduction (July 2026): Introduced an $1,000 instant tax deduction for work-related expenses without requiring receipts, specifically designed to offset employment income and simplify tax time for low-income workers.
Working Australians Tax Offset (July 2027): A new, permanent $250 tax offset will be applied automatically at tax time to all workers.
Additional Relief (July 2027): The lowest tax bracket will fall once more from 15% to 14% to offset bracket creep “
_______
When Labor came to power in November 2007 the lowest tax rates were as follows:
0 – $6,000: Nil
$6,001 – $30,000: 15%
$30,001 – $75,000: $3,600 plus 30% for each $1 over $30,000
When it left office (and Albo was Deputy PM) the lowest rates rates were:
0 – $18,200: Nil
$18,201 – $37,000: 19c for each $1 over $18,200
$37,001 – $80,000: 37,001 – $80,000: $3,572 plus 32.5c for each $1 over $37,000
When the Albanese Labor government was elected in May 2022 the lowest rates of tax were:
$0 – $18,200: Nil
$18,201 – $45,000: 19c for each $1 over $18,200
$45,001 – $120,000: $5,092 plus 32.5c for each $1 over $45,000
In this financial year the lowest rates of tax are:
$0 – $18,200: Nil
$18,201 – $45,000: 15c for each $1 over $18,200
$45,001 – $135,000: $4,020 plus 30c for each $1 over $45,000
Median Full-Time Employee Wage (Salaried Workers) over this period are instructive:
This measure targets individuals explicitly employed full-time, excluding part-time brackets and welfare supplements:
2007: $47,900 per year (~$920 weekly)
2013: $65,000 per year (~$1,250 weekly)
2022: $82,300 per year (~$1,583 weekly)
2026: $90,532 per year (projected from the current ABS Employee Earnings benchmarks of $1,741 weekly.
As you can see Labor’s 20 year track record is to reduce tax for low and middle income earners appreciably whilst supporting wages growth, thus maintaining – or even improving the effective rate of tax as a proportion of the income. Labor’s tax policy has kept the effective rate of tax for median income earners within a 18-20% range. Lower income earners are much better off simply because of Labor’s increase in the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,200 back in last period of government.
– NPR
While personally agnostic about transgender athletes competing in women’s sports, this decision is yet another example of the US Supreme Court engaging in culture wars by giving precedence to their personal prejudices. I recall when, in the ’70s, the transgender Renée Richards (a former male player) won the right to compete on the women’s tennis tour. It was said at the time that she would have an unfair advantage. It turned out that she never won a top-level singles or doubles tournament. It was a storm in a teacup. And who gives a tinker’s about Kavanagh coaching his daughter’s basketball teams at school? He should’ve recused himself on the grounds of apprehened bias.
Yeah, I doubt Jacinta Allan had any direct involvement in any corrupt activities (that may be my inner stooge talking, I dunno), but it nonetheless happened under her watch and her responses to the various revelations that have come out have been… unimpressive, to put it mildly. I can’t imagine Dan Andrews would have been so simultaneously ineffectual and belligerent about it all.
It says something about how much of the laughable rabble the Victorian Liberals are that she might still end up scraping through to victory in November regardless.
P1 at it again. NFI but arrogant and ignorant roolz.
The Ord scheme has already expanded into the Northern Territory. Big Time. I was part of the environmental consultations for the expansion. I was strongly critical of the early irrigation layouts because they totally ignored local and seasonal fauna movement patterns. They then ignored my advice. Totally. The Scheme will eventually add something like 100,000 ha to the scheme in the NT.
Capital value on the market of the land plus water is well north of $10,000 a ha, making the current and potential expansion in the NT section alone worth a minimum of a billion.
Part of my long term interest arose from my father wanting to put his name in the draw for part of the original allocation on the WA side. By that time mum had had enough of the rolling stone so it was no go.
Asha
You kind of have to be a stooge to make sense of how it can happen, Jacinta being from the Labor left, she see unions as being up against the bosses, and that justifies how unions operate.
The Liberal Party has its own blind spot with business, the big banks and the big 4.
It’s also a consequence of this being an old government where certain behaviour has become normalised.
So these corruption allegations may or may not be true and even if untrue may bring down a democratically elected govt. But that is cool.
We do not deserve democracy we are way way too stupid.
Tragic!
Tens of millions of tourists in europe discomforted by soaring temperatures.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/01/ocean-surface-temperatures-hit-a-record-high-for-june
NSW Health spending $39m on an AI Scribe for up to 6000 doctors is great for the doctors but it seems kind of expensive. I hope they did their due diligence and considered their own build as is happening in another state.
@WWP – democratically elected governments being brought down by the opinions of voters as expressed at the ballot box, opinions which very rarely get to be based on anything proved beyond reasonable doubt, IS democracy.
So yes, people’s vote may be influenced by imperfect knowledge of imperfect corruption allegations. To imply that means we don’t deserve democracy is beyond asinine.
At the 2022 election we also had imperfect knowledge of who did what regarding Robodebt. Would you suggest we don’t deserve democracy if people voted against Morrison in part because they held him responsible for Robodebt in advance of the inquiry being held into it?
Both of Jacinta’s spouses were union organisers, which might explain/indicate her leanings.
And how many “ordinary Australians” are you representing when you flit off to Britain (business class and high price accommodation paid for by your nose in the pollie pig trough?) to rant and rave at the hard right wing Alliance for Responsible Citizenship conference? And then go on with more raving and ranting on the 49 Day Lettuce… I mean Truss RRWNJ Show.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/break-their-funding-mckenzie-calls-for-penalties-on-universities-that-teach-white-guilt-20260623-p609h3.html
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/australia-is-under-socialist-control-says-former-prime-minister-of-the-uk/news-story/33ef0cc45a22322e523d0e0573593311
This article argues that changes in military technology as evidenced in the Ukraine (and Persian Gulf) fighting mean China could not take Taiwan any time soon. Ergo the Chinese military threat is overrated.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/mirage-chinas-military-edge-dennis-blair?s=ESPZZ006U4&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=post&utm_campaign=PROM_JA26%20Post%20Release%201_063026_The%20Mirage%20of%20China%E2%80%99s%20Military%20Edge&utm_content=20260630&utm_term=ESPZZ006U4
Obvious question: if Taiwan is not under imminent threat, why must we do AUKUS?
– CCN
It will certainly outlast Thomas.
Some big assumptions there.
The same technologies that make Taiwan difficult to invade make it easy to blockade. China has been adding missile launchers on the mainland off Taiwan. I assume that by now these could sink anything afloat in any Taiwanese port.China currently has on station more or less permanently seven naval vessels completely around Taiwan. They are not implementing a blockade but they are certainly practising it.
Socrates, Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 1:25 pm:
Socrates, not a fan of AUKUS myself, but to play devil’s advocate: defence procurement programs with timeframes as long as that for AUKUS aren’t for imminent threats. They are meant to counter capabilities which potential adversaries can potentially bring to bear against us, should they ever form the intent to do so at some more distant point in the future. Not that any power with such capabilities has given us evidence of a current intent to attack us in any way, but such intents can change at very short notice.
That said, you don’t need to be told that it is far from settled that AUKUS is the best path Australia can take to counter the capabilities of any power or combination of powers which might, one day, form the intent to attack us – as you, Andrew Earlwood and others have comprehensively discussed here.
The obvious area of operation for our subs would be the Indian Ocean. The obvious strategic objective would be to cut the Indian Ocean trade routes to the far east.