The latest instalment in the occasional EMRS poll series on Tasmanian state voting intention is the second to include One Nation as a response option, and it records a five-point increase in their support to 19%, with Liberal down four to 25%, Labor up one to 24% and the Greens down one to 14%. This would seem to raise the prospect of future elections being contests between Liberal-One Nation and Labor-Greens blocs, with the present result being a moderate lead for the former.
Personal ratings for the three leaders are little changed, though Jeremy Rockliff’s 44-25 lead over Labor’s Josh Willie reverses a slump in the last poll, when it narrowed to 40-26 from 50-24 in the poll last August. Rockliff’s favourable rating is down one to 34% with unfavourable up two to 38%; Willie is down one to 21% and steady on 17%; and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff is steady on 23% and down one to 28%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1000.
This post also offers an occasion to do something I too often neglect to do, which is to follow up the results of the periodic upper house elections after election night, which produced two fairly close results. In Huon south of Hobart, independent challenger Clare Glade-Wright unseated independent incumbent Dean Harriss by a margin of 2.5%, chasing down a 30.8% to 27.4% deficit on preferences from Labor (16.7%), the Greens (15.0%) and two independents (5.4% to 4.7%). In the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, Liberal incumbent Jo Palmer’s 42.4% to 25.1% primary lead was enough to hold out against Labor’s Ben McKinnon: the 16.0% vote of independent Susan Monson appeared only moderately favourable to Labor while the Greens’ 16.4% split as Greens preferences typically do, giving Palmer enough leakage to prevail by a 2.8% margin.
One Nation doing their thing all over the country it seems
State based poll but will they help flip any of the seats federally? They’d win a Senate seat off a number like this, I think Pauline’s daughter Lee will top the ticket
On a state basis, Labor even further away from governing unless they change their approach?
Just wondering if Rockliff will be looking at pulling the trigger on an early election, given he has a 44-25 rating against the “opposition leader”.
At the moment, he has an agreement with the Greens.
From his POV, it might be easier dealing with O.N.
HBG – The Tasmanian Labor party was placed under National administration in 2022 due to poor election results and internal disputes which damaged the party.
I believe they are now back “out of administration”.
I think if Rockliff makes Tasmanian voters go to the polls for the third time in as many years, he will be punished for it.
Honestly, grand coalition looking more and more realistic if this continues.
Nadia I think Rockliff is quite moderate, can’t imagine him working with One Nation
I think it would be extremely unlikely Jeremy Rockliff would want to call an early election based on this poll, given the collapse in the primary vote of the Tasmanian Liberals. Especially given Tasmanian Labor were seen to be punished for triggering the last election early.
HBG – I’d think Rockliff would be “smelling the political breeze” in Tasmania.
He currently has an alliance with the Greens in the Tas lower house, because the Tas Green’s despise Tas Labor. Anyone with a pulse know’s this “relationship” won’t last.
If I was Rockliff, I’d be looking for any excuse to pull an election. Any trivial issue will do (ie: the Greens blocking funding for a round-a-bout somewhere, or some sort of “save the bird’s” issue in NW Tasmania. That’ll do.)
Given Lambie is no longer a thing in Tasmania (Gosh, even Tyrell worked that out & has jumped ship accordingly, to save her Senate spot), Rockcliff can see the “remnant right” vote is coalescing around O.N.
If I was him, I’d be looking at a new election. He know’s the Green relationship won’t last long.
I think you’ve got it backwards Nadia, Tas Labor hate the Greens, they’d be government now if they didn’t
We’ll see how it plays out but I think you’ve got a bad read on this one
I think though H.B.G., it’s a stretch on your behalf to think that Rockliff would prefer to be backed up by the Greens in Parliament, instead of One Nation. We’ll see.
Nadia,
Heck no Rockliff won’t go.
Don’t just look at the headline numbers – break it down seat by seat. Look at that one Liberal seat in Denison, and one in Franklin, and two in Lyons and Braddon, and one maybe two in Bass.
By this poll, the ALP stays about where it is, and the Liberals lose ~5 of their seats to One Nation.
Therefore, rather than deal with the pains of a minority government, if the election goes the way this poll shows … then Rockliff needs to deal with an even more minority government, with fewer Liberals.
Right now, he’s on a good thing. Why would he stuff it up ?