As always, a flurry of federal polling is emerging in the wake of the budget, with more to follow over the coming days. Newspoll in The Australian finds Labor holding its ground on 31% of the primary vote, the winners out of any budget backlash seemingly being One Nation, up three to 27%, putting them well ahead of the Coalition, down one to 20%, with the Greens down one to 12%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are unchanged at 40% approval and 57% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is respectively up three to 36% and up two to 48%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Albanese’s lead at 46-38, in from 46-37.
This is despite perceptions of the budget’s impact on the economy being the worst recorded since Labor’s horror post-election budget in 1993 (Newspoll has consistently posed the same suite of post-budget questions since 1988), with 22% rating it good for the economy (in fact no different from last year’s budget, which came six weeks before Labor’s landslide win) and 47% bad (up 15 points on last year). In terms of personal financial impact, the net result is the worst since the Abbott government’s disastrous debut budget in 2014, with 11% expecting they will be better off and 52% worse off. However, this is not immensely worse than the response to the Albanese government’s first budget in October 2022, for which the respective results were 12% and 47%. On the other regular Newspoll post-budget question, relating to whehter the opposition would have done better, the results are unremarkable: 39% say yes and 47% no, compared with 38% and 47% last year.
Further questions find 48% expecting the budget will worsen inflation, 9% improve it, and 32% make no difference; 39% expecting they will pay more tax, 7% less, and 41% no change; 27% rate it a step in the right direction on housing, compared with 38% for wrong direction and 22% for no difference; and 26% felt the government was “rebalancing the playing field to make things further” compared with 47% for “driving a wedge between younger and older generations” and 18% for neither. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1252.
Other polls are less sanguine with respect to Labor’s electoral standing, the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers finding them down three points to 29%, with the Coalition unchanged on 23%, One Nation up one to 24% and the Greens up one to 12%. The poll notably has Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister by 33-30, after Albanese led 33-32 last month. Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 34%, while his poor plus very poor rating is up four to 56%. Taylor is respectively down four to 37% and up three to 29%.
The Resolve Strategic poll finds 24% saying the budget will be good for their household compared with 35% for bad. Thirty-six per cent say the broken promises have damaged their view of Labor, with 31% saying they have not and 14% holding that their view of Labor has improved. However, pluralities are recorded in favour of the changes in capital gains tax, supported by 36% and opposed by 21% with the remainder undecided or neutral, and negative gearing, supported by 35% and opposed by 21%. Of 11 budget measures canvassed, only the cancellation of further work on the Inland Rail project, supported and opposed by 27% apiece, does not find more supportive than opposed.
A Freshwater Strategy poll for the News Corp papers records a tie on two-party preferred, after a 53-47 in the pollster’s last result three weeks ago, with Labor down three on the primary vote to 29%, the Coalition up two to 25%, One Nation up one to 26% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll finds 21% rating the budget as positive and 46% as negative in terms of economic impact. Forty-five per cent say the changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax and trusts have reduced their trust in Anthony Albanese and Labor, with 13% saying their trust has increased. Forty-one per cent say they are less likely to vote Labor compared with 15% for more likely. Fifty-eight per cent believe the budget increases the chances of further interest rate rises, compared with 10% for decreases and 21% no effect. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1384.
A poll by Wolf & Smith, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 1002 (for “Amplify, a non-partisan community group founded by tech investor Paul Bassat”, as related by the Financial Review), has Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 24%, One Nation on 22%, the Greens on 11% and others on 13%. It finds pluralities in favour of the changes on negative gearing (41% with 32% neutral and 27% opposed) and capital gains tax (38% with 35% neutral and 26% opposed), but only for those who own their homes outright is it felt the impact will more likely be positive than negative (37% positive, 43% neutral, 20% negative), followed by prospective homebuyers (34%, 28% and 38%). Only 16% said the changes would be positive for renters and mortgage-payers, with a respective 45% and 43% expecting it to be negative.
Seems like all Angus has done with his racist reply speech is encourage his former Coalition voters to abandon them for the full fat racism of the Gina Rinehart Party.
subgeometer
By putting investors in competition with home owners wanting new builds.
The government’s logic is this frees up existing homes for home owners, the problem is this could reduce supply of rentals, and the remaining rentals will become more expensive to manage and rents could rise where demand exceeds supply.
In many suburbs, existing flats/units are already more affordable than new builds, and rents have been rising, it’s not unusual in Melbourne to pay $500-$600 per week for a two bedroom flat.
Many home buyers want new properties and renovated properties, this sounds good for people wanting lower prices, the danger is the home owner who has never used NG, faces falling prices, affecting their ability to move, this could further restrict supply. Home buyers wanting to do renovations have to weigh up the cost after paying stamp duty and higher interest rates.
From the ABC:
Hundreds of auctions got underway across the country on Saturday, with prospective first home buyers buoyed by the biggest tax reform in decades.
At one auction, for an apartment in South Melbourne, the successful bidder had spent more than a year trying to buy.
“I think it’s great to encourage younger buyers, rather than investors making more money all the time. It’s giving us young people a shot at it,” she told the ABC.
Newspoll 54-46 is astonishing at this stage of the electoral cycle after a once in a generation budget.
Well done Albanese, Chalmers, Gallagher and the team.
Probably right GoW. Why go for ersatz racism with the modern Liberal Party when you can have the real thing with One Nation.
Taylor is just dumb.
Lots of sound and fury signifying nothing!
Are we entering the age of partisan polling? I truly hope not. Newspoll remains the most trusted and apparently reliable! Who would a thought it? Rupert not thumbing the scale….
It’s the one the pollies talk about for a reason.
Kos on Newspoll tonight.
A lot of noise. For what?
Vote intentions have hardly moved. But look at where the movement is. Over the last 6 months, all on the Right and it’s profound.
The budget hysteria tells you everything about who the commentariat is actually talking to. Shares. Investment portfolios. Family trusts. Negative gearing portfolios and super balances into the million.
Most Australians don’t have any of that. They have a mortgage they’re barely servicing. Power bills, food shopping that costs more than it did last month. Rent that’s eating half their pay. A car they need for work and can’t afford to fuel. Aspiration for these people is a word that has a lot of relevance, aspiration to break even at the end of the month.
That’s the financial life of the country. Not the one being screamed by a bunch of folk who frankly have no idea about the beating heart of this country.
If Jacinta Allan steals just one Liberal Party policy, scrapping stamp duty on property below $1m is the one she should steal.
Ultimately when we get to the election, there will be a lot of questions around One Nation and the coalition. It will very easy for the ALP to run on a stability platform – contrasting a potential chaotic mix of multiple parties with government in a steady pair of hands. A percent here and there will probably disappear then.
Thanks for the poll roundup William.
The Nrwspoll is good for Labor at this early stage. The Resolve poll is fair and the Freshwater poll poor. Which is correct? Time will tell.
I think in reality public attitudes to the budget are not settled yet. It will depend on messaging by both sides how it plays out.
Hard Being Greensays:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 7:03 pm
For what it’s worth, I live on the Central Coast and thought the Inland Rail decision was a bad one. It should have been tweaked not scrapped imo
I think those saying the change in NSW is related to property prices are on the money
I’m guessing Newspoll will look similar in a couple of hours
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I did say Barnaby was aging quickly the other day. Yet even he doesn’t age as quickly as a HBG post. I guess it happens often when your predictions are really wishcasting.
“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride”
LotY
I guess we’ll see how it plays out. But anyway, each time a renter buys an established property, that’s one less renter competing for the remaining rental property
The next election is simple. The Coalition is a mess and mostly unelectable, One Notion is something we can’t afford and don’t need, so the only option is Labor. Whatever they do don’t get cocky and don’t mess it up.
My comment updated from previous thread – with Newspoll PV figures of ON 27% and LNP 20%, it is clear that ON has become the de facto opposition. Polling questions on leaders’ approval ratings and PPM are now meaningless unless they include Hanson. For too long ON has avoided proper scrutiny and anything Taylor does has only one objective – to be at least if not more extreme than Hanson.
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With ON on 24% above LNP on 23%, how can Resolve do a meaningful PPM of Albo vs Taylor? It should be a three way comparison of Albo, Taylor and Hanson. So much of the MSM is treating Hanson in a frivolous manner (“look at my million dollar flying toy”) and have already forgotten that ON won Farrer and thereby demolished the LNP vote. Meanwhile the MSM are boosting Taylor as the man who will beat Albo by fixing the tax system and keeping out nasty immigrants. They almost completely fail to mention that Taylor and the LNP are desperately trying to outdo Hanson’s brand of toxic politics.
Based on primary vote percentages, it is currently a three way contest between Labor, LNP and ON and the leader of each should be subjected to the same level of scrutiny. While convention dictates that Taylor is the leader of the opposition in parliament, the reality is that he leads only one non-government party and his main opponent at present is the leader of ON.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 9:41 pm
If Jacinta Allan steals just one Liberal Party policy, scrapping stamp duty on property below $1m is the one she should steal.
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Isn’t Jess Wilson trying to sell budget repair. How does all the spending she proposes get paid for?
Sounds like she is another Angus with magic pudding economics.
Without Simon Benson’s usual Newspoll commentary, all the Oz has come up with is:
Re Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 9:41 pm
And the residential price immediately jumps by the amount of stamp duty “saved”. The only beneficiaries would be investors and speculators. Better to invested stamp duty in increasing supply, for example by building social housing.
The grandfathering arrangements and immigration data has conspired to negate the government’s intergenerational equity agenda in the minds of the electorate.
Entropy, don’t criticise Jess Wilson, TM will be after you with a wet lettuce!
citizen
The Oz is right, Newspoll found the budget was unpopular, it didn’t hit Labor’s TPP is well done Angus.
DPReesays:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:11 pm
Entropy, don’t criticise Jess Wilson, TM will be after you with a wet lettuce!
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I think I’m right, I believe he is out tonight trying to burn down one of the Lal Lal wind turbines. If only they were more flammable like say an oil refinery, he might even be successful.
Steve777
What about people trying to downsize, they pay stamp duty on their new home, if they have to pay $30k to $50k that is factored into the sale price of their existing home.
Entropy, all such silly and funny nonsense!
DPReesays:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:11 pm
Entropy, don’t criticise Jess Wilson, TM will be after you with a wet lettuce!
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I will leave him alone tonight after the pounding he copped from WWP earlier.
I won’t kick a man when he’s down.
Much fuss over very little. I suspect that the broken promises thing might have got some traction, but I doubt it will matter much in the end. People will vote in 2028 on the basis of which party is the best bet moving forward, and with the official opposition in a death spiral with One Nation, there is likely to be only one serious option, and that’s Labor. Albanese’s government has never been wildly popular, and they won’t suddenly become so, but they do present as a serious governing option, which will probably be enough. Remember that Labor now dominates our educated, younger and diverse cities, while the Libs have been largely excluded from them, and One Nation as a rural phenomenon can only really hope to take a few small bites in some of the city fringes. But the cities are where elections are won or lost, and so long as Labor don’t suddenly become dysfunctional, they will continue to dominate there. There’s really nothing in this polling (which of course is occurring two years away from the next election) to think that anything has changed in that respect.
If the stamp duty on the new downsized home of, say, $30,000, is abolished, the price of the new home jumps by $30,000. All we’ve done is transfer $30,000 from the public purse to the vendor. Increasing purchasing power won’t help without fixing supply. Mind you, it’s not as bad as Dutton’s plan to transfer home buyers retirement savings to real estate “investors”.
Time for Min Woo Lee to win a Major.
T11, 4 shots behind heading into the final round of the US PGA.
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:24 pm
DPReesays:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:11 pm
Entropy, don’t criticise Jess Wilson, TM will be after you with a wet lettuce!
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I will leave him alone tonight after the pounding he copped from WWP earlier.
I won’t kick a man when he’s down.
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LOL, Taylormade
You really believe your mate WWP won that exchange.?
You’re as blind as the umpire that ignored Balta being pushed in the back. Plus as bias as the umpires interpretation of no advantage in that game too.
So after all the baying and challenging for the government to be ambitious and tilt the pendulum away from tax advantages for those benefiting from the Capital Gains Tax 50% discount, address Negative Gearing and address the advantages visited upon those who embrace discretionary Trusts, now the government has responded by light touch (because the measures are light touch) we are told the government is unpopular for introducing the measures it has introduced
Spare me
Media, hey?
The pm has not got the guts to do what is right and proper
The pm is on the nose for doing what is right and proper
Which is exactly what media (owned by who and which political party are they members of, which, in my view at least should be on every one of their ownerships = transparency), an attack headline looking to influence
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t so you cannot win either way
And the reason why polling is a nonsense – the only result being the election result
I saw a headline informing that Labor would not win the by election in Queensland and how calamitous that would be for Labor and its leader (citing some respected academic!!)
But Labor have added a seat to their numbers (from an Independent)
The message?
Think for yourselves people
Don’t be led by media headlines
Then we see that the parakeet of high fashion in Victoria is adding numbers to her media platform and closing the gap to the Premier
So how good is the promoted parakeet of high fashion, carrying her young child?
I would guess the child was not born in a public hospital and will not be attending a public school because according to the parakeet of high fashion, monies spent on public amenities are a waste of money (IPA doctrine)
So you do not spend on roads, rail, hospitals and schools (in her own words via Guardian Australia)
And in Victoria at least there are Stamp Duty on Transfer dispensations when downsizing your home
Go look it up
The press gave us sound and fury that amounted to nothing.
As I said on the night, the worst thing about the budget was the weeks of bullshit we were going to have to put up with.
What I find interesting in the wake of the post budget polling is the graphical summary of polling trends between Wikipedia and Bludgertruck.
Wikipedia’s summary shows ONP’s polling stagnation ending and is back on the rise at the expense of the Liberals, Greens and Independents. In contrast, Bludgertrack has the Liberals narrowly ahead of ONP.
I wonder if the Roy Morgan SMS poll is the factor which lead to this divergence? Ik William Bowe rejects SMS polling due to it’s unreliability but I presume Wikipedia’s graph includes it considering that they list the SMS poll in the table below the graph in the ‘Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election’ page.
Which one is more correct? Obviously the one which conforms to your preconceived notions and bias duh /j
https://yapms.com/app/aus/house/2025001/blank?m=0i251n6wvm9dozh
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2028fed/nowcast/
The current nowcast model updated with the latest polls including the latest Newspoll.
In regards Stamp Duty and downsizing in Victoria, google it (which I just did)
You need to be a pensioner, so holding a Seniors Health Care Card at least (which is most, most generous under this Federal Government including because of Deeming Rates), paying no Stamp Duty to $330,000- then discounted to $750,000-
So there you go
Regardless of debates over public perception I thought this was the best budget in decades. It made a serious attempt to fix long term problems not just buy votes in the short term..
There are still two years to the next election. That gives Labor two years to bed down these reforms, tax gas higher in the next budget, and rhen deliver some PAYE tax relief. This is the hardest point of the budget cycle.
David says:
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:33 pm
“now the government has responded by light touch (because the measures are light touch)”
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If you consider what was announced to be “light touch”, I suggest you keep away from any S&M play because your version of “rough” is probably fatal.
There is another saying on “if wishes were horses”.
“If wishes were horses and guesses get wings, then human beings will become insane, living goes off rails”
davidwh
Another way of looking at ‘One Notion’. Let us keep it as a ‘notion’ otherwise life becomes living hell for ordinary people as in US.
citizen at 9.57 pm
“While convention dictates that Taylor is the leader of the opposition in parliament, the reality is that he leads only one non-government party and his main opponent at present is the leader of ON.”
It is more complicated than that. Taylor leads the largest non-government party, and he will do so until replaced by his main opponent, who is Hastie.
All of the right-wing media say that this is the worst budget since Keatings in 1993, but Keating won with the help of John Hewsons birthday cake GST debacle. I wonder if the promised bracket creep tax cuts will end up as Angus Taylors “birthday cake” moment. He has no chance of winning back the urban seats the Liberals need to form government and seems to offer nothing except to recite the One Nation playbook.
Geoff Chambers(the Oz)
Worst in decades: Jim gives Keating a run for his money
Jim Chalmers’ unpopular budget has helped Angus Taylor get back into the game.
What a load of shit. Taylors shitshow is on 20% Hanson has more chance of being PM than him.
The Oz is completely deluded.
This is mostly down to how much smoothing our models are doing — a whole lot in my case, rather a lot less in Wikipedia’s. BT had Coalition moving ahead just now because that’s been the general trajectory over the past few months, and it takes more than a few polls to snap it out of it. I was discontented with this, since I felt a reader might reasonably ask how BT could have the Coalition ahead of One Nation when Newspoll has them seven points behind. So I’ve just changed to a less conservative smoothing model that puts One Nation back ahead, without going nearly so far as Wikipedia.