The Age has Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly poll on Victorian state voting intention, compiled as usual from the Victorian responses to its last two monthly national polls. The primary votes are Labor 27%, Coalition 29%, One Nation 21%, Greens 10%, independents 7% and others 6%.
Comparing this to the previous result is not straightforward, as that result combined January polling in which One Nation was rolled into “others” and February polling when it was broken out for the first time. This is evident from a chart in The Age’s report that unusually gives us the monthly results for February, March and April, the first of which had One Nation on 22% – half the published result from the aggregated bi-monthly poll, which put it well out of kilter with other pollsters. The two components of the current result are, for March, Labor 27%, Coalition 31%, One Nation 19% and Greens 9% (conducted March 8 to 14 from a sample of 519); for April, Labor 26%, Coalition 27%, One Nation 23%, Greens 11% (conducted April 12 to 18 from a sample of 528). Jess Wilson holds a 39-20 lead over Jacinta Allan on preferred premier, unchanged from February.
The recent and spectacular emergence of One Nation as a factor in Victorian state politics has required reworking of the BludgerTrack Victoria 2026 poll aggregate, since pollsters were uniform in disregarding the party until the start of this year. This has been dealt with by treating pre-January polling as a separate series, as is clearly observable on the “primary vote” chart. Also clearly observable is that the trend isn’t doing much in the way of smoothing at present, there being only seven data points for the new series to work from. That should hopefully resolve as more polls are published.
The remainder of this post will summarise recently accumulated Victorian electoral news, of which there is a very great deal to get through due to the imminence of a state election now seven months away, and the fact that I had my eye off the ball during a particularly stimulating South Australian election. There is also the fact of Saturday week’s Nepean by-election, for which I have published a guide to go with the ones for the Farrer federal by-election a week after and the Stafford by-election in Queensland another week hence. I will have a dedicated post up on the by-election early next week.
This post has developed into an epic mostly due to the extraordinary drama provided by the Liberal Party’s Legislative Council preselections. Most remarkable was the imbroglio over Western Metropolitan region, where incumbent Moira Deeming, central figure in the controversies that have embroiled the party since the last election, was defeated in the initial ballot for top position on the ticket on March 29. The winner was Dinesh Gourisetty, restaurant owner and Indian community figure, who received 39 votes to Deeming’s 26, with another three going to the party’s other incumbent in the region, Trung Luu. Deeming did not nominate for the ballot for second position, which was won by Trung Luu ahead of Metro Trains operations manager Tim Beddoe.
The defeat of a high-profile incumbent was just the beginning, as the process returned to square one with Gourisetty’s withdrawal the very next day, after it emerged (“with Machiavellian timing”, in the estimation of Chip Le Grand of The Age) that he had provided a character reference for a friend who had pleaded guilty to grooming and sexually assaulting a 15-year-old girl. Gourisetty said he was not aware of the details of the allegations and believed the friend to be contesting the charge, but the reference said he believed him to be “sorry to the complainant for what he has done”. The Herald Sun reported “multiple Liberal sources” claiming the state executive, and in particular state president Phil Davis, had been aware of the issue but turned a blind eye through their determination to unseat Deeming, though this was “vehemently rejected by Davis and his supporters”.
Under party rules dealing with such a contingency, Deeming was deemed to have automatically nominated for the preselection re-run, and emerged as the only candidate after a 36-hour nomination process that required nominees to provide a police check, credit report, ten signatures from eligible party members and a statutory declaration encompassing nearly 100 questions. A nomination from real estate agent Bobby Lakra was rejected because it lacked the required two referees, but The Age quoted a source saying he had resolved the matter before the deadline, and that his exclusion was “a stitch-up which Lakra was seeking to challenge”. Two allies of Deeming, Tim Beddoe and Stephen Murphy (the former’s nomination carrying over automatically from the first round), withdrew amid lobbying on Deeming’s behalf by Jess Wilson.
The saga brought into focus the eye-watering application fees the Victorian Liberals introduced for preselection nominations late last year, amounting to $5000 for nominations in seats held by the party and $3000 elsewhere. This includes $3000 for an external consultancy to vet candidates, which would appear not to have delivered value for money in Gourisetty’s case. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column relates a dossier compiled by disgruntled party members (presumably factional conservatives) argued the measure served the interest of a “specific factional profile”.
Also in the Liberals’ upper house preselections that have developed over recent weeks:
• Conservative incumbent Bev McArthur defeated a challenge from former Geelong mayor Trent Sullivan to retain top position on the ticket for Western Victoria, by a margin the Herald Sun reported as 75 to 26. Second position went to Graham Watt, who held the lower house seat of Burwood from 2010 to 2018 and ran unsuccessfully in Melton in 2022. The party’s second incumbent for the region, Joe McCracken, announced in January that he would not seek re-election. Evidently not in serious contention was mortgage broker Manish Patel, whose candidate statement was withdrawn and revised after complaints about defamatory references to McArthur, as reported by The Australian’s Victoria Ink column. Susanna Marro, a beef farmer and factional ally of McArthur, withdrew days before the vote after the applicant review committee raised concerns over her online engagement with content linked to neo-Nazi extremists.
• The top position in Northern Victoria region, which will be vacated with the retirement of Wendy Lovell, will be filled by Steve Brooks, a fruit grower and high school teacher who ran for the federal seat of Nicholls in 2022. Second position is reserved for the Nationals, who have a defending sitting member in Gaelle Broad. Amanda Millar, who briefly served the region from 2013 to 2014, will be in third position after running unsuccessfully for first. Carly Douglas of the Herald Sun reported Strathbogie councillor Claire Ewart-Kennedy, who had been “backed by party heavyweights”, was considering running as an independent after her nomination was rejected for being submitted a day past the deadline.
• The Australian reports Anne-Marie Hermans was relegated to second position in South-Eastern Metropolitan after losing the top position to Phillip Pease, who was once a staffer to former MLC and factional moderate Matthew Bach. Noted conservative Renee Heath retained top position in Eastern Victoria against a challenge from author and journalist Sue Smethurst.
Other preselection news:
• Three Labor retirement announcements were made concurrent with the last week’s reshuffle, with vacancies looming in Danny Pearson’s seat of Essendon, Mary-Anne Thomas’s seat of Macedon, and Gayle Tierney’s upper house seat in Western Victoria region. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column earlier reported that Treasurer Jaclyn Symes, who represents Northern Victoria region in the Legislative Council, had moved to Essendon amid suggestions she would seek to succeed Pearson.
• Labor has announced candidates in two Greens-held seats: Yarra councillor Sarah McKenzie in Richmond, which Gabrielle de Vietri gained from Labor in 2022, and former teacher and publican Davydd Griffiths in Melbourne, which party leader Ellen Sandell has held since 2014.
• The Greens have preselected Merri-bek councillor Adam Pulford as their candidate to defend the seat of Brunswick, after incumbent Tim Read announced his retirement on health grounds. Mark Phillips of Brunswick Voice reports Pulford was chosen ahead of two council colleagues, Ella Svensson and Jay Iwasaki. Campbell Gome will again run for the Greens in Northcote after falling just short in 2022.
• The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column relates that Bernie Finn, a former conservative Liberal MP who failed to win re-election in 2022 when he ran for the Democratic Labor Party, has joined One Nation. Finn was previously lined up to be a candidate for Family First but was disendorsed over a “rant on social media”.
• Liberal leader Jess Wilson will again face competition in her seat of Kew from Sophie Torney, who polled 21.1% when she ran as an independent in 2022 with the endorsement of the Kew Independents community group and financial support from Climate 200. A uComms poll of 914 respondents provided to the media by Torney’s campaign has Wilson on 38% (44.3% at the 2022 election), Torney on 17% (21.1%), Labor on 13.5% (22.7%) and One Nation on 13%.
• Local outlet Somerville Times & Peninsula Local News relates that Frank Schiefler, a political adviser who formerly served in the army, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for Hastings. A rival contender, Shane Osborne, withdrew his nomination, quit the party and is now seeking preselection with One Nation. The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column says that, as in neighbouring Nepean, local party members had been angered that the candidate had been imposed by the state executive.
• Publican Andrew Lethlean, who came within 1.4% of an upset win in Bendigo at the May 2025 federal election, has been confirmed as the Nationals candidate to run against Jacinta Allan in Bendigo East.
• With former Nationals leader Peter Walsh set to retire, the Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column reports that the leading preselection contender for his seat of Murray Plains is Victorian Farmers Federation president Brett Hosking, although he faces competition from Loddon mayor Dan Straub and “former senior Liberal Party official” Alex Lew.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Is possibly the political something in Australia that has surpassed all political happenings since the establishment of the Liberal Party in 1944.
Just astounding!
The victorian Liberal Party leader Jess Wilson 39% rating is not that good, considering the so-called poor rating of Jancita Allan.
Nothing so far is standing out for me, to change my original picks
Labor Majority – even though Labor has been in government for a long time
Swing against Jess Wilson in her seat, she will be the Leader which will lose her seat
A very encouraging result – Coalition minority with ON holding the balance of power. Let’s make Victoria great again! The Left will be squirming and writhing and the new government will make Kennett look like Mandela to them. I hope the first thing to go is the ridiculous Safe Schools program that was undone years ago everywhere else. We do NOT have to accept diversity for its own sake – all it does is sow division.
A 3k or 5k fee just to apply for pre selection really puts becoming an MP or Senator into the realms of the wealthy and is a real discouragement for people to even try.
Do the other parties charge such fees?
In the UK reform is charging a candidate fee but any vetting they do can’t be very good because numerous candidates have been disowned by the party for their fires and statements yet remain on the ballot paper for next months local elections.
Labour doesn’t charge a fee but puts a limit on how much a putative candidate can spend on trying to be selected as a candidate.
One nation needs a VIC local maybe an ex coalition to harden their identity in VIC like SA and QLD.
Poised in VIC to take the lot One nation IF they can hold it together.
This is far left vs far right not much in between except libs with a L plater in charge.
Get out the popcorn for this one.
Crazy VIC energy transition ideology trumps process crazy…..
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-22/victoria-undervoltage-melbourne-gas-electricity/106588882
Andrew Lethlean says hello.
“As reported by The Australian’s Victoria Ink column. Susanna Marro, a beef farmer and factional ally of McArthur, withdrew days before the vote after the applicant review committee raised concerns over her online engagement with content linked to neo-Nazi extremists.”
Wowsers.
Who are these people? Who do they hang out with.
The libs are unfit for government and will be exposed when it matters most.
Don’t believe what you’ve seen or you’ve heard. This is far from over.
Mabwm
The fiberals have had years to get their act together.
Yet here we are.
Although, I do believe the Nat candidate Andrew Lethlean can and will beat Jacinta Allan.
If Labor goes into the election with Allan in the lead they will lose. Or end up in a minority situation with the Greens calling the shots which is probably worse for their chances in 2030.
If they are able to get Allan out of the leadership, they will probably get a bounce of about 5% in primary vote and that is about enough to save the day. They can highlight that the Liberals and Nationals are likely to be relying on One Nation MPs and that will be enough to steady the ship in areas with large migrant populations.
The Labor concern has always been that One Nation will take Labor votes and funnel them to the LNP.
They could obviously try policies to attract that kind of voter but economics says no, they must get poorer, they must have less and less access to public goods and public services must be so bad people do not want to use them. So actually attracting votes isn’t a viable solution.
So instead they pretend they are some how outside the guard rails. But the Constitution is the guard rail and they are well inside that.
I now think this actually increases their appeal and also moves the LNP towards them (perhaps this would have happened anyway).
It would be an absolute disaster for Victoria but it might be quite good for the rest of the country if ON actually did very well and formed a significant part of the opposition or government.
Which is pretty easy to say from the cave, but I have zero polling to back me up but I would not be at all surprised if one nation could be WA’s formal opposition after the next election, if their wave doesn’t crest and fall.
If Labor doesn’t have the skills and ability to manage such a coalition they frankly don’t deserve anyone’s vote at all.
ChrisC:
Yeah, that is absolutely wild, and locks ordinary people out of even bothering to run for Liberal preselection. Really shows just who the party represents.
I wonder, do they get the money refunded if they don’t win preselection?
A Labor Greens government would be a great outcome for Victoria, I’d almost consider moving back down there if it happened
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, April 22, 2026 at 10:01 am
The Labor concern has always been that One Nation will take Labor votes and funnel them to the LNP….
==========
Actually this is a major concern because the Vic Upper House still elects members via Group Ticket Voting.
I believe there are/were plans to change this.
This poll actually means nothing – the sample size of 528 doesn’t really indicate any meaningful trends whatsoever and just leaves so much more room for any errors or assumptions. It’s just way too small so take it with a grain of salt.
Glad that this poll aligned with the keys.
Will be interesting to see how they both shift from now to the election.
When the Libs elected Jess Wilson as leader she was lauded by the press as the “moderate” the Libs needed to regain the credibility lost by the lurch to the right. The malign influence of the far right (represented by Bev McArthur, Moira Deeming et al) would be reduced to a manageable level .
It now seems obvious that Wilson (IPA Moderate) is just another far right puppet. McArthur calls the shots, Deeming is protected species, brown people as candidates are not welcome and the mutual loathing within Liberal ranks becomes more open by the day.
One Nation will continue to cannibalise the Libs on the rationale of voting for the organ grinder rather than the monkey.
The press wants the election to be competitive and are doing their best with a continuing stream of anti Labor stories. A competitive election sells papers.
nadia,
There have been plans to drop group ticket voting since before the last election. I’m not holding my breath.
A.M.,
Yep look’s like the Group Ticket Voting abolishment was put on hold in December.
It’s a good point made upthread, as there may be a cohort of voters (not many, but maybe about 3%) who move their vote from Labor to ON in the Upper House, forgetting that O.N. will then preference their vote to the Libs or Nats.
Just wonder if there is time for the Allan gov’t to revisit the Upper House voting system before Nov.
I think it will be an interesting election.
* Possible Lower House ALP/Green’s gov’t
* A possibly right wing Upper House (remembering that Vic has seperate districts for the Upper House, not a statewide vote).
* Jacinta Allan possibly losing her seat (to a Nat), &
* Jess Wilson possibly losing her seat too (to a Teal).
No-one is clearly breaking out in the polls. They’re all hovering around the 25 % mark.
I can’t believe Group Ticket Voting is still a thing in Victoria in 2026. It needs to be abolished purely on the grounds of basic democratic principles. Whether or not it advantages or disadvantages this or that party shouldn’t even be a consideration.
Asha,
Agreed.
Also, I can’t believe it’s legal for a ‘preference whisperer’ to receive payment for organising preference swaps. How many voters know their vote can ultimately end up with someone who paid for it?
nadia,
There’s probably enough time to change it legally, but not practically. New counting software would need to be written, tested, installed, and so on. I doubt even vibe coding with A.I. could get it done properly in under a year.
The Libs were on board with abolishing GVT but Labor stalled so as not to piss off LC and AJ who threatened to vote against all Govt. legislation.
If it suits them I’ll be one of the last things to pass the parliament before the election. It won’t be that hard for the VEC to count either way so I don’t think that is a real issue, only if one of the majors get cold feet.
“I can’t believe Group Ticket Voting is still a thing in Victoria in 2026.”
I am not surprised at all it is still a thing.
The Victorian Greens have been the most consistent advocates for reform, recently introducing the Electoral Amendment (Group Voting and Vote Counting) Bill 2026 to scrap the system before the next state election .
The Electoral Matters Committee, a multi-party parliamentary committee has recommended twice—following the 2018 and 2022 elections—that GVTs be abolished and replaced with a system similar to the federal Senate.
Victoria is currently the only Australian jurisdiction that still uses this system.
Labor dragging its feet on democratic electoral reform.
It was Labor that reformed the LC after gaining control in 2002, when they would have been certain to retain control for at least eight years under the then existing system. It meant several members voted themselves out of jobs.
It’s a shame to see that proud record being tarnished today.
There is no indication, no polling, no analysis, that suggests changing leaders would help the ALP. The two named alternates are non entities as far as the public are concerned, and there is no vote winning platform of policy difference either. Its just the same old Australian swap the leader and hope to get a different result formula we’ve had for decades now. People can see through it. The best thing the ALP have going for them in an election campaign versus a very splintered Right who can’t agree on any platform is representing some stability, and having a budget and then an election campaign that concentrates on delivery. Play a game of musical chairs, and you might have nothing to offer at all.
“A Labor Greens government would be a great outcome for Victoria”
It would be swiftly followed by 15 years of One Nation.
We’ve seen how disastrous the Greens involvement in government is in Canberra, where Shane Rattenbury betrayed his voters by attempting to install the Liberal Party, how poorly the Greens acted in the last Federal Parliament, and how the Gillard/Greens minority Government lead to a decade of Coalition mismanagement as people ignored years of corruption and scandals because of how awful the Gillard/Greens years were.
Jacinta Allan needs to resign as Premier and clear the decks for a strong male leader who actually looks like he’s up for 1) the job and 2) the fight. They should immediately institute a ban on bail and automatic denial of any parole for the next 6 months, and tell the Police Commissioner to crack down on gang violence & deliver results or he can expect to find another job.
Victoria’s Labor members heavily lean female (particularly in the safest seats), and most of the men are four eyed nerds.
Get Paul Edbrook on the tren and preworkout, get John Lister a proper hair-cut, grow a beard, make him deputy and get some energy into the Party.
Sometimes I think the Liberals don’t want to win, because if they win they’d have to do some work and that’d interfere with making money.
Well it would be nice if Jacinta Allan shores up support for her leadership with a change from what she’s doing now, which pretty much seems to be “Carry on as usual and hope that the Coalition and One Nation fight themselves out.”
We’ve seen this play out before twice with Kirner in 1992 and Brumby in 2010, they took over from their popular predecessors and proceeded to lose the next election.
At the moment it looks like it’s going to play out in the same way in 2026.
The vic Labor govt are governing for the times and for the future.
They currently are in a pay dispute with Teachers that needs resolution. Apart from that, they are doing lots of good work.
Problem is that Jacinta Allan is not popular with the public and is dragging down Labor’s vote.
I continue to hold the belief that the Nats candidate in her seat can and will win, thereby unseating her.
Jacinta Allan is not stupid. She knows the state of play. Only question is what is going to be her next move in this space.
I believe Brumby lost due to the catastrophic bushfires back in 2010.
Brumby government also suffered from poor public transport. Connex was shambles. Together with myki issues it has fed into the narrative time was up for the government.
Brumby and Kirner both lost because of the despicable Greens.
I’m not sure how, especially in the case of Kirner because the Greens didn’t exist in her time, but anything bad that happens to Labor is always down to the Greens. It obviously can’t have been Labor’s own fault.
Thinking about it the next day, what separates failed successors (Kirner, Brumby) from those that do well?
Dick Hamer took over from Henry Bolte in 1971 after 16 years in government and proceeded to win the 1973, 76 and 79 state elections.
In 1971, Victoria was virtually a Liberal fiefdom. There was no realistic danger of them losing an election, no matter who the leader.
@Leroy
There rarely is though. I doubt there was any public polling to say replacing Turnbull with Scott Morrison would work out for the Libs, for example, nor that Steve Bracks or Daniel Andrews would be popular and successful leaders before the general public got to know them.
A leadership change is not a guarantee of success by any means, but at least it’s a proven method of having a chance of drastically changing the mood.
I am not worried about a Labor Greens minority government at Victorian state level because the local Greens are such nonentities. I don’t think they’ll be the level of obstructionist trouble that their Federal counterparts would be in the equivalent scenario, nor at state level are there as many policy flashpoints as at federal level.
I don’t believe ON will remotely live up to their current level of polling either, unless the Liberal vote collapses completely.
@Gorks
Yes, that was a big issue. I remember seeing the swing maps at a branch meeting after the election and the train line corridors lit up with negative swing. People who use public transport and the most exposure to Myki cost Brumby the election.
The reverse happened at the first Danslide. The biggest swing to Labor was visibly along the train lines thanks to the level crossing removals.
Ghost of Whitlam:
Is this supposed to be a parody of Timmy, or do you actually believe this? Sounds like you want Labor to defeat One Nation by becoming One Nation.
__________
Gorks:
Watching on from WA, I wasn’t surprised they lost that one (and Peter Batchelor was lucky he wasn’t in a more marginal seat). Myki cost the Vic govt $1.5 billion and ran several years late; here, we managed to build a 70 km line to Mandurah and two new underground stations in the city (plus various other stuff) for $1.6 billion. Smartrider (our version of Myki) was about $50 million – basically a rounding error compared to the bigger projects. If I’d been voting in Vic in 2010, I’d be wanting to know where the hell all that money went with so little to show.
I’d characterise the Brumby government as having perished to an accumulation of petty grievances (some, but by no means all, transport-related) rather than any particular stand-out issue.
2010 (and subsequent developments) is also a good example of the idea that from a longer-term perspective, it may be better for a long-term government to narrowly lose rather than just hold on (with the likelihood of losing heavily next time). Among other things a big loss means losing a lot of key people who lose their seats, and while it is possible to bounce back from that in one term (as Queensland 2015 proved), it’s difficult.
@bird of paradox:
I mean, it was unarguably sheer incompetence.
And the current state Labor government is being weighted down by losing a similar amount of money over the Commonwealth Games with noting at all to show for it.
These kind of hideously expensive blunders ruin governments.
“Is this supposed to be a parody of Timmy, or do you actually believe this? Sounds like you want Labor to defeat One Nation by becoming One Nation.”
The only way for Labor to maintain any degree of viability is to shift significantly to the Right, akin to something resembling a Minnsite outfit and moving closer to the true centre of public citizen opinion (citizens and eligible voters, not residents) – which is not the same position as the internet makes it out to be.
Finally abolishing the Safe Schools program and dismantling the Pride Centre in St Kilda would be good bipartisan start.
Timmysays:
Wednesday, April 22, 2026 at 6:35 am
A very encouraging result – Coalition minority with ON holding the balance of power. Let’s make Victoria great again! The Left will be squirming and writhing and the new government will make Kennett look like Mandela to them. I hope the first thing to go is the ridiculous Safe Schools program that was undone years ago everywhere else. We do NOT have to accept diversity for its own sake – all it does is sow division.
—————————————————————-
The higher the ON vote the more likely Labor wins. ON with split the right wing vote. Then the issue is right wing preferences leak like a sieve. A fair chance Labor wins, be in minority, but Jacinta loses her seat, which would be a first, as well as saying plenty about about the Liberal Party,
It wasn’t so much Brumby losing the public transport vote but the arrogant but very late Lynne Kosky, who hated the transport portfolio and made sure everyone knew she did.
I understand it was her own Labor sub-faction within the union making trouble for her, cancelling trains at whim. This has happened before, but usually the Minister is more engaged with either the union or public, she genuinely didn’t care.
Definitely in those days, the transport portfolio was the poisoned chalice but now we have had several transport ministers go on to higher jobs, like Gladys, Allan, Guy and Saffioli in WA.
Bracks was atrocious on public transport from the start, though, well before Kosky’s appointment – and not great on a lot of local infrastructure issues generally. I’ve long thought that Andrews being the absolute polar opposite had to have been inspired by his experience having to work within that ministry.
I’m still incredibly worried about November. I would much prefer Williams to Allan as Premier but am inclined to agree with Kos Samaras’ view that the mere fact of changing leaders at this stage of the game is a loser of a position, absent of some sort of evidence that Williams is indeed substantially much more popular than Allan.
GVT still existing in Victoria is an absolute bloody embarassment.
Nutjobs aka Labor state government-broke- come out with a 700 million debt funded stunt.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-26/victoria-offers-20pc-car-rego-discount-in-cost-of-living-measure/106606656
Lies about budget surplus as what they have done labor is shift debt and spending off budget.
Other states are not doing the above.
Victorian capital investment 2025 to 2026 121 billion.
Victorian increase in debt 6 billion.
An economy that is investing 115 billion into capital investment from cash-flow is not in trouble.
The continual attempts by our press to pull the state down is really a boring.
Just going through the seats where the 2pp margins are around 54/46 or lower
Labor has 8
only about 2 or 3 seats are under 52/48 gain from Liberal Party
Lib/nats have 9
about 4 or 5 are under 52/48 , liberal party seats and gain from labor
with a 5% swing against the Lib/nats . going to be hard for Lib/nats to take that much ground off Labor
Roy Morgan poll
SMS conducted April 22-24. 1707 polled.
Only seven months before a State Election, Victorian electors continue to remain split four ways with the governing ALP 25.5% (unchanged from February 2026) now just ahead of One Nation 24.5% (down 2% points) and the L-NP Coalition 24% (up 2.5% points) and 26% (up 0.5% points) supporting Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 13.5% (unchanged), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8.5% (down 0.5% points according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 22-24, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,707 electors.
If a Victorian State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.
The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.
Three-Party Preferred result shows the ALP well ahead of the L-NP Coalition and One Nation