Nine Newspapers’ online publication the Brisbane Times has the bi-monthly Queensland state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining the Queensland responses from its last two monthly polls. It records a four-point drop in support for the Liberal National Party government, now on 30%, which has unusually little to do with One Nation, who are up only one point to 17%. Labor is up two to 28%, and the Greens are up one to 11%. David Crisafulli retains a strong net likeability (meaning favourable minus unfavourable, and ignoring neutral) of plus 19, down from plus 21, while Steven Miles is down from minus three to minus five. Crisafulli leads 42-26 on preferred premier, in from 44-23. The poll was conducted between March 8 to 14 and April 12 to 18 from a sample of 870.
We will perhaps get an insight into the accuracy of all this when the Stafford by-election is held on May 16, which has been brought on quickly following the death of Labor-turned-independent member Jimmy Sullivan on April 9 – although the contest has been deprived of one point of interest by One Nation’s announcement that it will not field a candidate. The two major parties have moved quickly to endorse candidates: Labor’s is Luke Richmond, the party’s assistant state secretary and a former ministerial chief-of-staff and official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, while the LNP has again endorsed its candidate from 2024, Fiona Hammond, who formerly served Marchant ward on Brisbane City Council and has more recently been government relations manager at an engineering consultancy. The closure of nominations and ballot paper draw are on Friday.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion on Queensland state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I don’t take much notice of Resolve Strategic polls at both state and federal levels. Their polls are about as accurate as Roy Morgan and just as useless.
The 17% in its homeland rather the the mid-twenties figures being registered elsewhere might be a truer representation of PHON’s standing with the electorate.
A state wide poll is not at all applicable to a by-election in Brisbane. There is a large political divide, as there has always been, between Brisbane and the regions. The by-election will demonstrate that divide. As to the One Nation vote, even in regional Queensland, people have experienced the farcical nature of their politics and politicians at close quarters and expect politicians to operate with more than a few slogans. Also the LNP in Queensland has always been so reliably very right wing that One Nation cannot capture enough of the rural white nationalist vote to outstrip them.
Stuartsays:
Thursday, April 23, 2026 at 8:49 am
“The 17% in its homeland rather the the mid-twenties figures being registered elsewhere might be a truer representation of PHON’s standing with the electorate.”
If we have a federal LNP government, sure.
Interesting One Nation is choosing not to contest the by-election. Sounds like they were expecting a sub 20 result if they did
Hard Being Greensays:
Thursday, April 23, 2026 at 10:51 am
“Interesting One Nation is choosing not to contest the by-election. Sounds like they were expecting a sub 20 result if they did”
Probably;
In the 2024 state election, Stafford had a below average ONP vote.
Labor thinks the LNP have done a deal with One Nation to not run in Stafford.
“The Labor opposition has used question time to probe whether the LNP struck a deal with One Nation not to run in the Stafford by-election.
Instead of running a candidate, the One Nation party on Wednesday announced resources would be reserved for a “strong campaign” at the next state election in 2028.
The move could boost the LNP’s chances of securing the seat.
On Thursday Shadow Treasurer Shannon Fentiman asked Premier David Crisafulli if he provided any government commitments or undertakings to One Nation in return for the party not running a candidate.
Mr Crisafulli strongly denied the allegation.
“But what I do want to ask is what deals have been done with the Green movement,” he said.
“And I’m asking those opposite, will they accept the Greens how to vote card that funnels that vote … that is needed back to the Labor Party, without the green vote that you’re likely to be in the high teens, we’ve seen possibly 20 per cent, the Leader of the Opposition would have no chance of winning this seat.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/one-nation-withdraws-from-stafford-byelection-in-major-boost-for-lnp/news-story/da86afdc7c092f70111f811734f1e575
Stafford didn’t exist at the 1998 election with the original orange tide, but they didn’t do spectacularly well in that area compared to some of the suburban outskirt-y parts of Brisbane. Stafford today is solidly middle class Brisbane suburbia. If you went a bit further north to somewhere like the suburban parts of Pine Rivers or Kurwongbah, where it’s a bit lower income, I think ON would poll better.
More likely Pauline is sitting this one out as a favour to Crisafulli.
Crisafulli should be preparing his resignation after failing to drop crime.
On trends from 2024 QLD election
LNP primary vote 30% – Swing against the LNP = 11.5% (41.5% 2024)
Labor primary vote 28% -Swing against Labor = 4.6% (32.6% 2024)
One Nation doing worse in Queensland than redneck Victoria. Who would’ve thought!
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 23, 2026 at 10:51 am
Interesting One Nation is choosing not to contest the by-election. Sounds like they were expecting a sub 20 result if they did
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We pretty much have a One Nation gov’t in power here in QLD atm, so probably not much point One Nation taking on One Nation. Have you seen the “free speech” laws imposed and the subsequent arrests. Joh Bjelke Peterson would be blushing at the laws the Crisafulli gov’t has recently enacted, and for some reason this hasn’t quite resonated in the “PB – Canberra/Melbourne/Sydney bubble”.
Regardless, Crisafulli is popular in comparison to Miles (42-26 on Preferred Premier stakes).
The LNP primary is not healthy . 30% (& has fallen substantially since late last year)
The ALP primary is not the best either, but it hasn’t “fallen off a cliff”.
I’m a bit guarded with this Resolve poll. I believe the LNP primary is a bit higher.
Anyway, we may have a YouGov QLD poll soon.
My only reasoning for this is that they circulated a polling questionnaire on Tues (via email)
I don’t know who commissioned the poll, but there were also questions about “tightening up abortion eligibility in QLD”, alongside the usual questions relating to primaries and Preferred Premier.
They also asked for respondent allocated preferences, so I’m guessing YouGov may have also ditched the “last election” calculations method.
Edwardo:
Yeah, One Nation got 15.5% in Chermside and 14.6% in Kedron in 1998, which between them would cover Stafford (both suburbs of that name are in the seat). Labor won both on primary vote or near enough to it.
__________
From that Courier Mail article:
Of all the dumb things that get said about preferential voting, this is one of the worst. Do these people seriously believe that if the Greens didn’t run a candidate, their potential voters would either not vote at all, or vote for the Liberals? If they’re that stupid they deserve to lose.
nadia – all the recent YouGov federal poll TPPs are respondent allocated preferences calculated, I just presumed any state poll would follow the same pattern (don’t know if they were last election pref TPPs beforehand, so maybe that would be a change at that level).
Worth noting that Pyxis/Newspoll ask people (presumably for their own data) how they intend to allocate preferences, even though they only show us TPPs as per the last election, or more recently show us nothing at all. With any pollster, the fact the question is there may not tell us how the data will be presented.
If there was a question on tightening up abortion, it might be a privately commissioned poll (probably by some right wing group) which we might never get to see, or we’ll only get to see selected bits of it if that group thinks it helps their cause to do so.
QLD Keys:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 1
Probably False 2
Definitely False 1
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
You wouldn’t want to introduce OPV on these figures.
Some of us have been paying attention to what’s happening with the ridiculous banning of phrases in Queensland Nadia, unfortunately Chris Minns doesn’t seem to get that it doesn’t work
It would have been a much more interesting by-election if One Nation ran but like you say, they have a like minded party in power up there anyway
I think the LNP primary vote is probably underestimated, I’m absolutely confident the ON vote is very underestimated.
From memory, Resolve has tended to measure a fair bit left of other polling in Queensland.
Quick note re the By-Election Guide, William:
In your upper “introduce the candidates” section, you name Labor’s candidate as “Nick Richmond”. You may wish to edit that.
Looks like just five candidates here. The Greens took a while to end up with their 2024 candidate again, and there’s a Libertarian who might get his deposit back if he gets the ~5% from One Nation and Family First last time.
Miles can’t win 2028. He needs to go. Any swing against Labor in stafford should be curtains for him. I have no idea why losing Labor leaders like Steven Miles and Chris Hipkins stay on as leaders hoping that “miraculously” the public turn back to them. Won’t happen. Labor is in danger in this seat. Not many seats in Brisbane are above 10% for Labor. Unlike say Victoria and NSW where there are tons of ultra safe Labor seats. In Queensland seats are softer for Labor.
I won’t speculate on what the poll will mean for OPV. But I doubt PHON will be polling that high after the next federal election which is WHEN the next QLD election is due.
Five? More like nine (cheers HH from the main thread). Also Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice, Family First and another independent coming out of the woodwork in Stafford. Labor get the donkey vote.
I think the Mp to watch out for is Meaghan Scanlon. I think she will move now the LNP have gerry mandered her out of Gaven. I don’t think Labor will want to lose her and look to find her a seat.
It was reported Mp for Aspley Bart Mellish considered standing for Stafford before deciding against it. He’s seat of Aspley is ultra marginal that he probably won’t survive on the current trends and may be looking for something safer. However, One Nation has thrown up a spanner in the works for the LNP. Brisbane doesn’t want a bar of One Nation just ask Rob Borbidge which adds some uncertainty to this contest at the next election.
PN, I doubt Scanlon would be received well switching. If she moves seats on the purpose of becoming leader in future the LNP will just hammer her as a “seat shopper” and her abandoning the Gold Coast also won’t be helpful for Labor if they made her leader in hope it helped them in that region.
I think Labor should challenge the redistribution even if they don’t get changes in Gaven, it could reverse the other changes which clearly benefited the LNP. But even without the redistribution, the seats is less than a 1% margin, it would not take much for it to go LNP even then.
Some float that should Cameron Dick retire then that unloseable Woodridge seat could be Scanlon’s seat. But personally I would hope it would be Waterford because Fentiman would be even worse than Miles and she would be another Jacinta Allan and would lose badly if leader.
But Labor cannot give up on the Gold Coast, it’s path to power again runs through Gaven, Coomera, Currumbin, Burleigh and Caloundra, Glass House on the Sunshine Coast (on top on most of the seats they lost in SEQLD at the last election). They will NOT get the Townsville seats back or Keppel and probably not Mackay. And certainly not Hervey Bay.
I think keeping Miles in is good, given you can burn through good candidates for Premier while minding the seat in opposition when you aren’t going to win the election. This is on the assumption he gives up the leadership when the time is right and a more saleable person comes in.
It will be hard for Labor no matter what with LNP in and ON offering support. It is interesting that ON are so easily led to support LNP rather than extract concessions.
This is a bit of surprise – and a very welcome one. I don’t think he’ll ever get to be Premier again, but Miles has shown he’s never to be underestimated.
Now, here’s hoping Victoria can get a bit of this Labor revival/ONP tanking energy.
I hope Labor get up, but once again they run an apparatchik, these people seem to come off some kind of production line, they just seem to slot them in when needed.
I had a very interesting experience in an operating theatre last week, in brisvegas. Single old fart, me, room otherwise all millennial, young, urban professionals. And every single one of them said they were planning on voting One Nation, and talking openly about it. It completely blew my mind.
It’s immigration. Memorable quote: “Why did we need to import a million Uber drivers”.
“millennial, young, urban professionals”
So young liberals.
Not a surprise they’ve abandoned the Libs for the “Libs, but more racist”.
Conspiracies about the fielding of a One Nation candidate are far less likely than no presentable local being prepared to put their hand up at short notice. Stafford has only been out of Labor hands during the Newman government, and with an LNP state government it seems unlikely to change again now. The LNP candidate didn’t win the seat when the government changed, and Labor are fielding a new candidate who is very effective. He’s knocked on our front door in person. Its hard to see how anything unexpected would happen. This is also supported by some election fatigue and LNP campaign style. Put gently, running on the basis of having been a city council member is not necessarily going to help you in Brisbane.