The bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic in the Sydney Morning Herald is the first to have One Nation included as a response option, with a predictably transformative effect: support for the party is at 23%, which more than accounts for a drop in the independents and others result from 26% to 11%. What’s unusual is that the One Nation surge has seemingly taken a bigger bite out of Labor than the Coalition, who are respectively down eight to 29% and two to 25%, with the Greens unchanged at 10%. The convulsion on voting intention has had no impact on preferred premier, on which Chris Minns has an unchanged lead over Kellie Sloan of 38-17. As usual, this combines the New South Wales samples out of the pollster’s last two monthly national polls, with a sample of 1000.
Typo alert in the lead para:
One Nation, yeah?
Labor sub 30 in NSW? One Nation in the 20’s not ideal. Liberals doing a little better and still in front of them is interesting
Greens will need to do better than 10
Interesting polling a year out. At this stage I’m considering not numbering a box next to Labor. I can’t vote for a party born out of protest that bans it
Obviously having One Nation as a readout massively boosts their vote. It becomes another other/independent option
It’s alarming to see such a big number for ON. It does look like their ceiling is in the mid to low 20’s, so that’s some consolation. It will be fascinating to see the demographic and geographic range of the ON vote in SA tomorrow. But it seems a nasty far-right populist party is going to be a significant feature of Australian democracy for some time to come. I do hope there will be some more capable moderate independents emerge in NSW, along the lines of Greg Piper, as alternatives for those who have had a gut-full of the major parties.
The big problem in NSW is optional preferential voting.
With last elections exhaustion inputted, this gives a 24.85% exhaustion rate from Labor vs Liberal contests, and produces a Labor 54.25 to Liberal 45.75 2PP with Exhaustion.
“At this stage I’m considering not numbering a box next to Labor. I can’t vote for a party born out of protest that bans it”
Pauline Hanson will love it.
Why I said “at this stage” that will probably change if One Nation looks competitive in my seat