Resolve Strategic: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

The first post-Bondi poll suggests real but limited damage for Labor on voting intention, and a solid hit to Anthony Albanese on personal approval.

Nine Newspapers has results from what it is calling a “special” Resolve Strategic poll, presumably because it was commissioned specifically to gauge reaction to the Bondi shootings, conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1010. It is thus not part of the pollster’s normal monthly series, which typically targets 1600 respondents and presumably produced its final result for the year a fortnight ago. The field work period for that poll was from December 3 – the date first reports appeared that Communications Minister Annika Wells had spent nearly $100,000 on air fares to New York for herself and two staffers, thus initiating a period of bad publicity for the government concerning travel expenses – to December 7.

The latest poll finds only a modest decline in support for Labor on two-party preferred, their lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. However, Labor is down three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up two to 28%, with the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation up two to 16%. Anthony Albanese takes a substantial hit on his personal ratings, his combined very good and good rating down eight to 40% and poor plus very poor up six to 49%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 41-26 to 38-30. Sussan Ley’s personal ratings have also weakened, down three on very good plus good to 36% and up three on poor plus very poor to 40%.

Despite everything, 37% rate social cohesion in Australia as very good or good, compared with 30% for poor or very poor, with the balance undecided. Twenty-nine per cent rate the government’s response to the attacks as strong and 46% as weak, and 72% agree that there has been “a rise in racism and religious intolerance in Australia, including as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict”, with only 9% disagreement. A further question, whose utility I have my doubts about, finds 55% rating that there has been more anti-Semitism than Islamophobia in recent months, compared with 13% vice-versa and 32% for unsure or both equally.

UPDATE: Further results have been published by Nine Newspapers today, including a finding that 76% want tougher gun laws, compared with only 6% for relaxing them and 10% for keeping them as they are. Respondents were given a list of nine “priorities for government” and asked to pick the two most important, with those at the law enforcement end of the equation (49% for preventing terrorist attacks, 45% tackling crime generally, 35% restricting access to guns) favoured over more abstract concerns (33% preventing radicalisation, 29% tackling anti-Semitism and 26% tackling hate speech).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,498 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. A_E: “Of course, the main crime Albo has committed, which goes to the heart of why certain organisations with the Disapora have made common cause with the MSM and LNPO to ‘get Albo’ instead of allowing the whole Australian community to come together to grieve this past week – is the recognition of Palestine. ”
    ——————————————————————————
    Correct. And my impression is that most Jewish-Australians – even those who are not particularly religious or Zionist and who favour a two state solution – are extremely pissed off about that decision. TPOF is a rare exception.

    And I think this pissed off feeling , along with a sense of not wanting to start an intra-community fight during a period of mourning, is why few of the moderate Jews are challenging the right wing elements of their community who are taking the lead on the issue and turning it into a political argument.

    There has always been a very strong right-wing, pro-Likud element in the Australian Jewish community but I’d be surprised if it’s all that much stronger now than it ever was. Moderate Jews will always rally around Israel when they feel it is under threat, and the events of October 7 2023 understandably looked like a pretty serious threat to them. So you can’t expect moderate Jews to be too critical of Netanyahu and what he’s doing at the moment. It’s a bit like the old US political concept that, once the President and Congress have declared war on another country, it’s unpatriotic for anyone to criticise that decision.

    It’s not a good thing for the Jewish community to be at odds with the ruling political party in Australia, especially when that party looks to be pretty entrenched in power. So olive branches will be waved down the track, I’m sure. And waving them towards Minns at the moment seems like a good idea to the Jewish leaders as it allows them to make their point without looking to be too strongly anti-Labor.

    In my mind, everything keeps coming back to the decision to recognise Palestine. It was a dud decision in my mind, which had no meaningful geopolitical strategy behind it and, as you suggest, was mainly about appeasing local lefties, especially those living in Albo’s own electorate and those neighbouring it. Dud decisions have a habit of jumping out of the crocodile pool and biting political leaders on the bum. And so it goes…

  2. Only in Reddit and of course social media have I read more vile comments about the tragedy at Bondi. Most appear to diminish the gravity of this attack. The commenters complain about how the event has been politicised and yet that’s precisely what they do here.
    Even the Guardian’s reporting has been in the main thoughtful and accurate.
    “frednk”” The Likud has trashed the reputation of the Local Jewish community” What on earth has Likud got to with the local Jewish community. So if a government of a foreign nation behaves, in your view badly that should lead to a local community, unrelated, other than by religion to be subject to a terror attack.
    “Confessions” “The cranky Jewish organisations have had their moment on the national stage” I mean really that’s so insulting. I’m sure the Jewish organisations would have preferred not to be on the national stage when it came at such a price.
    “goll” “Two idiots in a country of millions, for still unknown reasons, are responsible for this tragedy.”
    Two terrorists who did this in the name of radical Islam. That’s been the accepted by pretty much everyone, well accept for you it appears.
    It’s clear that Mins is on the right track. The progressive left, with their largely uninformed view of the world, in particular the middle east have fired up at least some of the hatred and Anti Semitism.
    And don’t be fooled into thinking that the “lions” share of Jews here and around the world do not support Israel- they do. Many are critical of the government but not of the country.
    Albo was clearly not responsible for the attack, however he was responsible for not doing enough to combat antisemitism. That’s the reality weather you like it or not.
    Lastly one commenter says that perhaps ” Albo should distance himself from the community ” I mean that’s beyond awful. So if a community is unhappy with the way a leader is dealing with their community the leader should dump them. Sure sounds like a plan.

  3. “And in the meantime in “Palestine” the expansion of settlements in the West Back continues

    It’s time to send in peacekeepers”

    A shame the peacekeeping force is dead on arrival. I guess the fact that there isn’t a ceasefire yet probably means not too many are keen to get bombed by the IDF.

  4. “And in the meantime in “Palestine” the expansion of settlements in the West Back continues It’s time to send in peacekeepers”

    A shame the peacekeeping force is DoA. I guess the fact that there isn’t a ceasefire yet probably means not too many are keen to get bombed by the IDF.

  5. Democracy Sausage:

    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 8:19 am

    ‘Not attending any of the funerals of the Bondi victims, that was a big error…’

    What are you banging on about? He wasn’t invited to attend them.

  6. It has been clear looking at America that moderate, or liberal, zionism is at an all time low. The right has gone so far right, and become so violent that it is untenable to belong in the middle.

    There is no middle ground on genocide nor ethnic cleansing, and its something the Jewish community will have to reckon with. It is ugly to see it played out on the national stage like this, considering the Zionist lobby’s deep connections with our government and individuals like Chris Minns.

    It’s a tough position to be in, as Biden gave Israel and Zionists literally everything they asked for and he received no love from the country nor the groups. They wanted him to say Palestinians don’t exist but he wouldn’t, so instead Trump gets the backing. I am not sure if Albanese recognises that there’s no appeasing these groups, I suspect that what he is doing is to show that he cares to non-zionists, to everyday Australians and the like

  7. The Trump administration really want to believe they have succeeded in stifling the Epstein files fallout.

    More information will come from other Sources and it can’t be stopped.

    Meanwhile Trump is mentally deteriorating, and it will become five alarm soon enough

    The wild ride continues.

  8. Reading stuff here the last few days you’d think the real victim in Bondi was Albo rather than the 15 people who were murdered by ISIS inspired terrorists

  9. Meher Baba,

    In my mind, everything keeps coming back to the decision to recognise Palestine. It was a dud decision in my mind, which had no meaningful geopolitical strategy behind it and, as you suggest, was mainly about appeasing local lefties, especially those living in Albo’s own electorate and those neighbouring it. Dud decisions have a habit of jumping out of the crocodile pool and biting political leaders on the bum. And so it goes…

    Mind bogglingly stupid justification for ignoring the existence of Palestinians in Palestine.
    So on the basis of what you’ve said, Israel should never have been created.
    That decision certainly “jumped out of the crocodile pool”.

  10. I condemn both the murderers of Bondi and the Government of Israel . I support legislation and action on hate speech.
    It has been said that speech limited is speech ( freedom of) lost- or something to that theme.
    We live in a great democracy, one that is admired and respected by many nations.
    We must be very careful about how we act against freedom of speech ( in reality there is no literal complete freedom of speech, but democratic conventions we have learnt to live by and with)
    While we must act against the scourge of hatred, racism, sectarianism and sexism we must ensure that any legislation created is undertaken with deep thought, a lack of hurry and the ultimate survival of democracy in our country.
    I am deeply concerned about any legislation which may inadvertently enable governments of any colour to use against one of the key tenets of democracy- an open and critical discourse about the role and actions of government.
    We have seen this occurring in the so- called great Western democracy- the United States under its tyrant Trump. We must stand against this possibility occurring here. We too have our Trumpists, and they are usually the loudest voices complaining of loss of ” freedom of speech”.
    Take a deep breath, Australia, mourn our losses, endeavour to protect all citizens and their rights and start on the long journey legislatively to the maintenance and survival of our democracy.

  11. Reading stuff here the last few days from some commenters you’d think the real perpetrator in Bondi was Albo rather than the two ISIS inspired terrorists who murdered 15 people.

  12. MB

    Correct. And my impression is that most Jewish-Australians – even those who are not particularly religious or Zionist and who favour a two state solution – are extremely pissed off about that decision.

    ________________________________________________

    Good morning MB. I suspect it won’t do much good in respect of some of the posters here, but I really need to point out that Zionism is not the same as approving what Netanyahu and the Israeli government is doing at the moment. It is nothing more than the view that there should be a Jewish state. Zionism is totally consistent with a two-state solution. While Zionism is also consistent with what Likud and the far right extremists are doing, it is much broader than that.

  13. SL @ #39 Monday, December 22nd, 2025 – 8:39 am

    Qld has set new solar records for power:
    https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.qld1.solar.power.interval.high?datetime=2025-12-21T12_50_00&offset=10_00&focus=1766285400000

    and energy (energy = power x time):
    https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.qld1.solar.energy.day.high?datetime=2025-12-21T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1766239200000

    Which enabled it to set renewables records for power:
    https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.qld1.renewables.power.interval.high?datetime=2025-12-21T12_50_00&offset=10_00&focus=1766285400000

    and energy:
    https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.qld1.renewables.energy.day.high?datetime=2025-12-21T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1766239200000

    WA also appears to have set a new record for renewable penetration on their main grid, the SWIS. On Saturday, around midday, renewables were >90% for perhaps the first time:
    https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/wholesale-electricity-market-wem/data-wem/data-dashboard

    And yet our forecast emissions for 2030 are higher this year than was forecast last year, and our quarterly emissions from electricity have been effectively flat since 2023, or (in some quarters) have even risen in trend terms, due to increasing demand.

    One might almost begin to suspect that these “records” are perhaps a little misleading, if not completely meaningless.

  14. victoria:

    I have to remind myself that Trump hasn’t even been in office a year. There’s still another 3+ years to go. 🙁

  15. Confessions says:
    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 9:27 am
    Reading stuff here the last few days from some commenters you’d think the real perpetrator in Bondi was Albo rather than the two ISIS inspired terrorists who murdered 15 people.
    ==========
    Yep Fess it’s been “quite a week”.
    I was almost expecting a newspaper report along the lines, “Albo was keeping the engine running”.

    A big hit job, which looks like it’s failed.

  16. Hard Being Green says:
    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 9:24 am
    Reading stuff here the last few days you’d think the real victim in Bondi was Albo rather than the 15 people who were murdered by ISIS inspired terrorists

    ______________________________________________

    Bullshit

  17. AE 8:50am

    “Of course, the main crime Albo has committed, which goes to the heart of why certain organisations with the Disapora have made common cause with the MSM and LNPO to ‘get Albo’ instead of allowing the whole Australian community to come together to grieve this past week – is the recognition of Palestine. ”
    ——————————————————————————
    Agreed, and some excellent points in your post backing up this conclusion.

    I mentioned yesterday the recent Once were Journos podcast dealing with the reporting of Bondi. It has some excellent detailed points. The pile-on of Albo over this incident started in a lot less than 24 hrs. As Lattouf pointed out, Netanyahu’s criticism was made before NSW police had even identified the attackers or Albo had spoken on Sunday night!

  18. Cat

    A belated thanks for the roundup. Sadly there is still a lot of grim news this close to Christmas.

    Gettysburg1863

    “ Take a deep breath, Australia, mourn our losses, endeavour to protect all citizens and their rights and start on the long journey legislatively to the maintenance and survival of our democracy.”

    Thanks. Good post, and good advice.

    Have a good day all. Rehashing this further will only depress me and I should do some exercise.

  19. Confessions says:
    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 9:27 am
    Reading stuff here the last few days from some commenters you’d think the real perpetrator in Bondi was Albo rather than the two ISIS inspired terrorists who murdered 15 people.

    _________________________________________________

    Much better.

    The problem is that we do not yet know the thinking behind this particular act of vicious violence as opposed to the rising tide of antisemitism in the last two years. The two have been conflated in the minds of most in the Jewish community. It’s a good thing one of the bastards survived so we can know what inspired him and his fucking father.

    Antisemitism absolutely needs to be addressed and what happened just over a week ago has driven a huge bump in activity, much to the disgust and disdain of some here. Which is part of the problem the government had.

    Anyway, I’ll wait to see what happens.

  20. So, Minns is the hero; Albanese, the bad guy. Perhaps Minns should consider defending Albanese, or is he enjoying his moment in the sun?

  21. “And yet our forecast emissions for 2030 are higher this year than was forecast last year, and our quarterly emissions from electricity have been effectively flat since 2023, or (in some quarters) have even risen in trend terms, due to increasing demand.

    One might almost begin to suspect that these “records” are perhaps a little misleading, if not completely meaningless.”
    __________________

    Last year’s emissions forecast showed we were on track to meet the 203o target. This year’s forecast does the same.

    Our 2025 electricity emissions are forecast to be 147.58 MtCO2-e, down from 152.54MtCO2-e in 2024.
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2025

  22. Mavissays:
    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 9:38 am
    So, Minns is the hero; Albanese, the bad guy. Perhaps Minns should consider defending Albanese, or is he enjoying his moment in the sun?
    _______________________
    He has saved Albanese’s arse by having a State based Royal Commission.
    It has provided cover for Albanese’s lack of leadership and gutlessness in not having a Federal one.
    A bit of gratitude wouldn’t go astray.

  23. The moderate secular Jewish families I have known in my life have lived nowhere near Bondi. Nor have they had any desire to. They just wanted to blend in with all us other Aussies.

  24. Taylormade:

    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 9:47 am

    ‘He has saved Albanese’s arse by having a State based Royal Commission.
    It has provided cover for Albanese’s lack of leadership in not having a Federal one.
    A bit of gratitude wouldn’t go astray.’

    For the baying crowd, a state RC is not good enough.

  25. Looks like the biggest hit to the ALP primary occurred in NSW (ALP down 4, LNP up 3)
    Other states – so so.

    A not surprising outcome you would think.

  26. P1 was correct with this part: “And yet our forecast emissions for 2030 are higher this year than was forecast last year”
    _________________

    “Projected emissions in the baseline scenario in 2030 have increased from 352 Mt CO2-e in the 2024 emissions projections to 354 Mt CO2-e in the 2025 emissions projections.”
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2025 (p. 23)

    However, a small rise like that could be characterised as, “perhaps a little misleading, if not completely meaningless.”

  27. SL @ #70 Monday, December 22nd, 2025 – 9:41 am

    “And yet our forecast emissions for 2030 are higher this year than was forecast last year, and our quarterly emissions from electricity have been effectively flat since 2023, or (in some quarters) have even risen in trend terms, due to increasing demand.

    One might almost begin to suspect that these “records” are perhaps a little misleading, if not completely meaningless.”
    __________________

    Last year’s emissions forecast showed we were on track to meet the 203o target. This year’s forecast does the same.

    Our 2025 electricity emissions are forecast to be 147.58 MtCO2-e, down from 152.54MtCO2-e in 2024.
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2025

    **sigh**

    From your document …

    Projected emissions in the baseline scenario in 2030 have increased from 352 Mt CO2-e in the 2024 emissions projections to 354 Mt CO2-e in the 2025 emissions projections. Tracking towards the target has also changed from 42.6% to 42% below 2005 levels in 2030.

    Are these fairly small changes? Yes. But are we at least heading in the right direction? No.

  28. SL @ #79 Monday, December 22nd, 2025 – 10:01 am

    P1 was correct with this part: “And yet our forecast emissions for 2030 are higher this year than was forecast last year”
    _________________

    “Projected emissions in the baseline scenario in 2030 have increased from 352 Mt CO2-e in the 2024 emissions projections to 354 Mt CO2-e in the 2025 emissions projections.”
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2025 (p. 23)

    However, a small rise like that could be characterised as, “perhaps a little misleading, if not completely meaningless.”

    Hmmm. Let me see … Are our forecast emissions getting lower? No. Are our electricity prices getting lower? No.

    So tell us again how good our current policies are.

  29. YouGov are polling again with regard to voting intention and satisfaction with current leaders, Albo and Ley.

    They followed this up with attitudes to the Bondi murders, gun ownership, and government response.

    As usual there is no indication as to who commissioned the poll.

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 9:56 am
    Looks like the biggest hit to the ALP primary occurred in NSW (ALP down 4, LNP up 3)
    Other states – so so.

    A not surprising outcome you would think.
    ======================
    Not surprised, but overall, the damage done to the ALP (on this one poll) is fairly mild. I suspected overreach mid LW and by Thurs arvo people were phoning into radio stations pretty much saying “enough is enough”.

    I don’t recall a more unedifying “pile on” as what we witnessed LW.

    The Oz continues however – they’ve dragged out Steve Hawke (Former PM’s son), to slag Albo & Wong.

    I hate to get into conspiracies, but I’m guessing the “primary” produced by Newspoll wasn’t “quite enough” for publication.

  31. I could add to the post at 10.10am that this poll follows a quite recent identical one. The gun and Bondi questions are additional and came after the voting intention so they appear to be looking for a change caused by this event.

  32. Interesting,once again three pieces top The Age on line this morning regarding :
    Albo approval rating.
    One leader has handled the Bondi attack aftermath well
    and Pleas for peace and unity,jeers for the PM.
    There is no option for readers comments.

  33. Purely on the strong versus weak poll numbers on how Albo has handled the past week im not at all surprised.

    The 94 seat victory this year has papered over some of Albos deficiencies, the ones we saw for more than 2 years through the voice and afterwards. Albo is good at some things, and not others which is only to be expected no one is perfect. He just doesn’t do ‘statesman’ well.

    I’m still expecting Labor to be majority government after 2028.

  34. “ It has provided cover for Albanese’s lack of leadership and gutlessness in not having a Federal one.
    A bit of gratitude wouldn’t go astray.”

    ___

    94. Before Bondi. 94. After Bondi. After the bullshit abates, still 94.

    After the next federal election?

    You cookers have gone all in with the Albo hate, but we shall see: It’s a bold strategy Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.

    In the meantime, you cookers have deprived most of the nation of a quiet week to reflect and grieve. All at the behest of Likud and Netanyahu.

  35. nadiasays:
    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 10:11 am
    The Oz continues however – they’ve dragged out Steve Hawke (Former PM’s son), to slag Albo & Wong.
    _______________________
    Poor old Bob would be turning in his grave at the current leadership.
    I don’t reckon him and Wong would have got along.

  36. Specialist police carrying longarm semiautomatic rifles will be deployed to the Boxing Day Test match in Melbourne in the wake of the Bondi Beach terror attack. Victoria Police said the measure was based on the “current threat environment”, not a specific threat, and will see members of the Critical Incident Response Team patrolling outside the MCG.

  37. “Hmmm. Let me see … Are our forecast emissions getting lower? No.”
    _____________

    Compared to 2024, the 2025 projections are lower in every sector except LULUCF. If LULUCF is excluded like you normally insist, the projections are 11MtCO2-e lower than last year.

  38. A state RC will not have powers over any commonwealth agency although even if it did the ASIO evidence would so wrapped in security, we may be none the wiser.

  39. Btw this was one year ago, from the vic govt

    —————
    Tuesday 10 December 2024 at 5:15 pm

    The Allan Labor Government is funding safer spaces for Jews to gather and pray.
    Victoria is a proudly multicultural state and there is no room for hatred and division of any kind. That includes antisemitism – an evil ideology that is on the rise across the country and across the state.
    Minister for Multicultural Affairs Ingrid Stitt today announced the recipients of the Jewish Community Security Infrastructure Program, with 15 community organisations to receive $950,000 in funding.

    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/security-funding-synagogues-and-community-spaces

  40. “ One leader has handled the Bondi attack aftermath well”
    ____

    Isn’t it interesting that in the Chris Minns’ hagiography that there is no mention that NSW Police were the cops on the beat down at the Opera House on the evening of 8 October (a right wing cause célèbre over ‘failing to act’ over anti-semitism), that it was once again, NSW Police that were tasked with security of the Chunnakah by the Sea event at Bondi, and only sent three junior uniformed cops along, yet he’s the hero.

    Me thinks he has been lionised only to damn Albo by contrast. Why? Me thinks this is 100% about the butt hurt Netanyahu feels over the growing global wave of cricitism of his Gaza war crimes and …. The recognition of Palestine.

  41. Before you guys post on Israel or Jewish Australians or anything related to this just make sure you run it past TPOF to get his approval before actually posting.

  42. Albanese is no show pony. Basically, what you see is what you get. A small but very loud crowd is
    not going to bring him down, nor a hostile media.

  43. SL @ #91 Monday, December 22nd, 2025 – 10:18 am

    “Hmmm. Let me see … Are our forecast emissions getting lower? No.”
    _____________

    Compared to 2024, the 2025 projections are lower in every sector except LULUCF. If LULUCF is excluded like you normally insist, the projections are 11MtCO2-e lower than last year.

    Things that are now quite common around the world.Nothing and nobody can guarantee safety from determined fruit loops,the price of freedom is of course eternal vigilance.
    So be it.

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