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Click here for full display of Hinchinbrook by-election results
End of evening. With only late-arriving postals and provisional votes to be counted, Liberal National candidate Wayde Chiesa holds an insurmountable 3.8% vote ahead of Katter’s Australian Party candidate Mark Molachino, whose party’s vote is down from 46.4% to 30.2%. As was noted often during the commentary below, large regional effects were evident: the two-party swing was 12.4% in the booths at the Townsville end and 30.0% further north. The KAP two-party vote was 11.1% stronger at the former end this time, whereas at the 2024 election it was 6.4% weaker. Support for One Nation remained fairly modest despite almost tripling on the 2024 result, while the Labor vote was well down off a low base, making their determination to field a candidate all the more puzzling.
8.48pm. Primary votes are in from the two pre-poll booths, and the one in Ingram (“Returning Officer Hinchinbrook”) has delivered what my system deems to have been a killer blow to the KAP: out of a substantial 5348 formal votes, the KAP is down there 38.8% and the LNP up 31.2%. The Deeragun early voting centre, at the Townsville end, records a swing of only about 10%.
8.32pm. I now see the real reason my projection ticked back to the KAP, namely that 3393 postal votes reported. However, it’s now tipped back over 80% LNP win probability, I think because of new TCP numbers resulting in a revision to the preference projection. Still nothing from the two big pre-poll centres.
8.25pm. The latest update caused my LNP win probability to fall quite substantially to 74.4%, which I think is down to one TCP result having given the KAP a better flow of preferences than elsewhere. After a fair bit of variability, the ABC’s and my TCP projections are now in accord at 52.1-47.9 in favour of the LNP.
8.13pm. TCP results from seven booths have dropped, without changing the outlook much.
8.03pm. Regarding those preferences: it may be noted that One Nation’s how-to-vote cards favoured the LNP over the KAP.
8.00pm. Two substantial booths have reported on the TCP, greatly improving the data from which to project the outcome, and my system is interpreting it as good news for the LNP, whose win probability is back well above 80%. I note that the ABC’s projection, which actually had the LNP falling slightly behind for a moment there, has now substantially revised in their favour — presumably because it’s no longer going off preference estimates that may have been flattering the KAP. The note of caution surrounding what the two big pre-poll booths might do remains relevant though.
7.46pm. With most election day primary votes in now, the race has tightened considerably — early projections based off big swings in rural booths have proved deceptive. Still more data needed on TCP, though the biggest imponderable is probably the two big pre-poll centres.
7.36pm. There are now five booths in from the Townsville end, and while they are less bad for Katter’s than booths further north, they don’t quite get them where they need to be. Their remaining hopes involve a stronger result on pre-polls and a better flow of preferences than is currently being projected off a low base of data (only “Telephone Voting – Early Voting” is in on TCP).
7.25pm. My projection is now going off actual preferences rather than estimates — specifically, by projecting from one booth where 149 votes slightly favoured the LNP. Which suggests my preference estimates weren’t so far off the mark, and pushes the LNP win probability back over 90%.
7.18pm. I’ve just revised by Labor preference estimate in favour of Katter’s, so expect improvement in their favour with the next results update.
7.18pm. Ten booths in — I’m projecting an LNP TCP of 58.1% but the ABC’s only gets it to 54.4%. The difference is our respective guesses about how (mostly) Labor and Greens preferences will flow.
7.16pm. Nine booths now in on the primary vote, still nothing on TCP, and the swing has moderated a little – my projection of the LNP primary vote is in from a bit over 47% to 43.6%. It may be notable that the difference has been made by the first booth from the Townsville end of the electorate (Deeragun), where the swing is about 10% and not as high as 30% as it’s been in some of the rural booths. The possibility that the Townsville booths will maintain that pattern means it can’t be called yet. One Nation look too far behind the KAP in third to be a shot of making the final count.
6.54pm. After what seemed to me a slow start, we now suddenly have six small booths in on the primary vote, with hugely encouraging results for the Liberal National Party – there were strong Katter areas, but their vote has fallen by more than half, with a lot going to One Nation and slightly more to the LNP. One Nation have at least a prayer of getting ahead of the KAP, and I’m not ruling either of them out yet, but unless we’re seeing substantial regional variability this is looking like an LNP gain.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Hinchinbrook by-election, occasioned by Katter’s Australian Party member Nick Dametto’s departure for a successful run at the Townsville mayoralty. The electorate contains a number of small rural booths, so first results should presumably in well within the hour.
Why on earth would the KAP throw this seat away? The general
public resentment voting. They’d rather shoot farm and fish.
@Mabwm
To be fair KAP didn’t want this bye-election, it was Nick Dametto who did this. I suspect Dametto wanted the mayor’s job because there was more autonomy than being a crossbencher in an LNP majority parliament. A member of a minor party can make the occasional speech and can vote how they want to vote, but unless they form in a minority government, they literally have no power. Even in a minority government, they never get a ministerial portfolio with the rare exception.
My guess would be he’s sick of flying back and forth from Townsville to Brisbane combined with a thought that the seat might have been lost at the next election, while being Mayor might be something he can keep multiple terms.
> The greens whose politicians all come from the most environmentally destroyed parts of Queensland, the inner city of Brisbane where it is all concrete and steel and not a kangaroo to be seen is real irony in action.
Are you saying the greens having seen real enviromental destruction are trying to stop it spreading outside the area where they grew up?
Also I have seen many posts here critising the Greens when they try to fight development.
A reasonable result for Crisafulli
Looks like a nothing result. People don’t like a sitting pollie moving for his own sake,and those Katter voters moving to lnp is no surprise. Nothing in it for Labor or anyone else.
WB – is that the final turnout ie: 74.4%, or will there be a few more votes to come in.
I realise it won’t change the outcome.
“Are you saying the greens having seen real enviromental destruction are trying to stop it spreading outside the area where they grew up?”
The greens and most supporters are extreme hypocrites. They love what industrialisation has given them, but deny it to others once they get comfortable. The greens are not exactly out there living in caves using fur skins as clothing.