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Click here for full display of Hinchinbrook by-election results
End of evening. With only late-arriving postals and provisional votes to be counted, Liberal National candidate Wayde Chiesa holds an insurmountable 3.8% vote ahead of Katter’s Australian Party candidate Mark Molachino, whose party’s vote is down from 46.4% to 30.2%. As was noted often during the commentary below, large regional effects were evident: the two-party swing was 12.4% in the booths at the Townsville end and 30.0% further north. The KAP two-party vote was 11.1% stronger at the former end this time, whereas at the 2024 election it was 6.4% weaker. Support for One Nation remained fairly modest despite almost tripling on the 2024 result, while the Labor vote was well down off a low base, making their determination to field a candidate all the more puzzling.
8.48pm. Primary votes are in from the two pre-poll booths, and the one in Ingram (“Returning Officer Hinchinbrook”) has delivered what my system deems to have been a killer blow to the KAP: out of a substantial 5348 formal votes, the KAP is down there 38.8% and the LNP up 31.2%. The Deeragun early voting centre, at the Townsville end, records a swing of only about 10%.
8.32pm. I now see the real reason my projection ticked back to the KAP, namely that 3393 postal votes reported. However, it’s now tipped back over 80% LNP win probability, I think because of new TCP numbers resulting in a revision to the preference projection. Still nothing from the two big pre-poll centres.
8.25pm. The latest update caused my LNP win probability to fall quite substantially to 74.4%, which I think is down to one TCP result having given the KAP a better flow of preferences than elsewhere. After a fair bit of variability, the ABC’s and my TCP projections are now in accord at 52.1-47.9 in favour of the LNP.
8.13pm. TCP results from seven booths have dropped, without changing the outlook much.
8.03pm. Regarding those preferences: it may be noted that One Nation’s how-to-vote cards favoured the LNP over the KAP.
8.00pm. Two substantial booths have reported on the TCP, greatly improving the data from which to project the outcome, and my system is interpreting it as good news for the LNP, whose win probability is back well above 80%. I note that the ABC’s projection, which actually had the LNP falling slightly behind for a moment there, has now substantially revised in their favour — presumably because it’s no longer going off preference estimates that may have been flattering the KAP. The note of caution surrounding what the two big pre-poll booths might do remains relevant though.
7.46pm. With most election day primary votes in now, the race has tightened considerably — early projections based off big swings in rural booths have proved deceptive. Still more data needed on TCP, though the biggest imponderable is probably the two big pre-poll centres.
7.36pm. There are now five booths in from the Townsville end, and while they are less bad for Katter’s than booths further north, they don’t quite get them where they need to be. Their remaining hopes involve a stronger result on pre-polls and a better flow of preferences than is currently being projected off a low base of data (only “Telephone Voting – Early Voting” is in on TCP).
7.25pm. My projection is now going off actual preferences rather than estimates — specifically, by projecting from one booth where 149 votes slightly favoured the LNP. Which suggests my preference estimates weren’t so far off the mark, and pushes the LNP win probability back over 90%.
7.18pm. I’ve just revised by Labor preference estimate in favour of Katter’s, so expect improvement in their favour with the next results update.
7.18pm. Ten booths in — I’m projecting an LNP TCP of 58.1% but the ABC’s only gets it to 54.4%. The difference is our respective guesses about how (mostly) Labor and Greens preferences will flow.
7.16pm. Nine booths now in on the primary vote, still nothing on TCP, and the swing has moderated a little – my projection of the LNP primary vote is in from a bit over 47% to 43.6%. It may be notable that the difference has been made by the first booth from the Townsville end of the electorate (Deeragun), where the swing is about 10% and not as high as 30% as it’s been in some of the rural booths. The possibility that the Townsville booths will maintain that pattern means it can’t be called yet. One Nation look too far behind the KAP in third to be a shot of making the final count.
6.54pm. After what seemed to me a slow start, we now suddenly have six small booths in on the primary vote, with hugely encouraging results for the Liberal National Party – there were strong Katter areas, but their vote has fallen by more than half, with a lot going to One Nation and slightly more to the LNP. One Nation have at least a prayer of getting ahead of the KAP, and I’m not ruling either of them out yet, but unless we’re seeing substantial regional variability this is looking like an LNP gain.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Hinchinbrook by-election, occasioned by Katter’s Australian Party member Nick Dametto’s departure for a successful run at the Townsville mayoralty. The electorate contains a number of small rural booths, so first results should presumably in well within the hour.
Ok. Yes, always up for a by election.
Gosh, good start for the LNP. I think Upnorth predicted an LNP pickup.
Look’s like he’s on the mark.
Caveat: Very early figures. 3.4% in only. 10% is the general guide
Link at top broken, should be
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2025by1/Results/LA.htm?s=Hinchinbrook
When is the last time an unpopular government increased its majority via a by-election, and when is the last time any party held 53 seats or more?
Daniel T – Albo picked up Aston at a by election (& at the time his polling wasn’t too flash, according to the opinion polls).
Labor and the greens will ensure KAP makes the count. One nations decision to preference the LNP could be the king maker.
Early days, of course, with now 7% counted, but it looks like there is a swing to Mr Chrisafulli.
I believe O.N. were preferencing the LNP ahead of the KAP, also.
I’ll wait until some of the North Qld psephs log on, and they can provide some analysis.
The vote count atm is the “Saturday vote”. They’ll add in pre polls shortly, and then on Monday we’ll probably get the postals. I’m, guessing we’ll get to about 65-70% tonight.
Sorry, we might get some postals tonight.
Crime ridden metro areas still to come.
Labor vote backwards.
8.7% of the vote in, and the ALP primary continues to track down.
I realise this is a Nth Qld district, but it might be time for ex-Premier Steven Miles, to move on.
Fixed. Thanks.
Gosh. Nearly 20% of the count done, and the ALP Primary is “falling off a cliff”.
LNP up 13%, ALP down 5%.
I think this is the end of Steven Miles. Zero recovery from this!
Miles won’t lose any sleep over an area of far-right loving bogan racists not voting for his party. I wouldn’t have even bothered putting a candidate up. Waste of money.
LNP typically do well in by-elections when turnout is down. I wonder how much turnout is.
WB. Sausage I have is that ONP preferences are flowing about 65% to KAP on early counts. This despite their ticket directing to LNP. It will be close is the word on the ground.
KAP candidate was ex ALP Councillor Townsville City Council. We have seen some tactical voting me thinks.
pied piper says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 9:05 pm
Deeragun has a crime problem mind you thats like saying Custer had an Indian problem.
中华人民共和国
That’s what happens when the LNP run things PP.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 8:37 pm
Miles won’t lose any sleep over an area of far-right loving bogan racists not voting for his party. I wouldn’t have even bothered putting a candidate up. Waste of money.
==========
Miles will def be losing sleep over this result.
It’s a rather arrogant comment of yours G.O.W. Qld is fairly decentralised.
About 42% of QLD’ers live in Gtr Brisbane, and when you add in the Sunny & the Goldie, the “dreaded” SEQ comes up to about 53% of QLD. Meaning 47% of QLD’ers live outside of SEQ.
Of course it is important that QLD Labor puts up candidates in regional areas of QLD.
The home of Labor is Barcaldine. This town is in regional QLD. Right in the “guts” of QLD, and you’re suggesting Labor should abandon these areas.
I think your comment that “Labor shouldn’t have even bothered” is completely off the trolley.
I’ll wait until Upnorth, Kirsdarke or Fargo61 drop by for analysis. They’re all ex or current Nth Qld’ers.
I suspect all three posters will be a bit concerned about retaining Steven Miles moving fwd.
Victoria & NSW recently had Opposition Leader clean outs. QLD might be next.
Thanks Upnorth. For what it’s worth, I note Bob Katter got 73.5% of One Nation preferences in Kennedy. The narrative that the One Nation card doesn’t matter much probably still holds though.
nadia88 says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 9:07 pm
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 8:37 pm
Miles won’t lose any sleep over an area of far-right loving bogan racists not voting for his party. I wouldn’t have even bothered putting a candidate up. Waste of money.
==========
Miles will def be losing sleep over this result.
It’s a rather arrogant comment of yours G.O.W. Qld is fairly decentralised.
About 42% of QLD’ers live in Gtr Brisbane, and when you add in the Sunny & the Goldie, the “dreaded” SEQ comes up to about 53% of QLD. Meaning 47% of QLD’ers live outside of SEQ.
Of course it is important that QLD Labor puts up candidates in regional areas of QLD.
The home of Labor is Barcaldine. This town is in regional QLD. Right in the “guts” of QLD, and you’re suggesting Labor should abandon these areas.
I think your comment that “Labor shouldn’t have even bothered” is completely off the trolley.
I’ll wait until Upnorth, Kirsdarke or Fargo61 drop by for analysis. They’re all ex or current Nth Qld’ers.
I suspect all three posters will be a bit concerned about retaining Steven Miles moving fwd.
Victoria & NSW recently had Opposition Leader clean outs. QLD might be next.
中华人民共和国
As I mentioned Mark was a former Labor Townsville City Councillor. I know a few tactical voters there. As for Miles the Left have the numbers in Caucus. If there is a move might be Fentiman or Scanlon.
Though I’m hard for Dick if there is a change.
Hi Upnorth, thanks for dropping by.
I believe you were the only poster here suggesting this may be an LNP pick up.
If you’ve got time later on tonight , or on Sunday… or on Monday when the postals start flowing in, could you drop your reasoning pls.
I thought it would be a straight KAP retain, but perhaps voters in Hinchinbrook weren’t excited about being forced back to the polls. Most voters don’t like this.
Thanks for your contributions to this site too. You are a ripper.
Townsville has obviously swung very far right from the days when it was a Labor town. Crime , unruly behaviour and indigenous issues obviously a big factor. Townsville is now a million miles from the SEQ. Queensland is a big big place probably a bit too big . NQ or as some jokers call it ” far Q” should really be its own entity.
William Bowe says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 9:10 pm
Thanks Upnorth. For what it’s worth, I note Bob Katter got 73.5% of One Nation preferences in Kennedy. The narrative that the One Nation card doesn’t matter much probably still holds though.
中华人民共和国
True WB. I still think the LNP will win but wasn’t the canter they thought it would be.
nadia88 says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 9:12 pm
Hi Upnorth, thanks for dropping by.
I believe you were the only poster here suggesting this may be an LNP pick up.
If you’ve got time later on tonight , or on Sunday… or on Monday when the postals start flowing in, could you drop your reasoning pls.
I thought it would be a straight KAP retain, but perhaps voters in Hinchinbrook weren’t excited about being forced back to the polls. Most voters don’t like this.
Thanks for your contributions to this site too. You are a ripper.
中华人民共和国
Geez I will get a big head. I will see what I can find out and drop by. You are a good poster too. Don’t let others get you down. Most don’t mean it cobber. You keep up the good work.
Anyway my contact is blind at the Herbert Hotel. So getting up to date information is a bit difficult given I am in Kanchanaburi.
3 days ago Qld police minister visited Deeragun with a major crime announcement that may of been a clutch move.
Princeplanet says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 9:13 pm
Townsville has obviously swung very far right from the days when it was a Labor town. Crime , unruly behaviour and indigenous issues obviously a big factor. Townsville is now a million miles from the SEQ. Queensland is a big big place probably a bit too big . NQ or as some jokers call it ” far Q” should really be its own entity.
中华人民共和国
It will come back to Labor – but not just yet. There is a lot of anger at the Council and to a certain extent Labor has worn that. But Labor needs more work not just in Townsville but also Mackay and Rockhampton.
pied piper says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 9:21 pm
3 days ago Qld police minister visited Deeragun with a major crime announcement that may of been a clutch move.
中华人民共和国
Wasn’t as bad when I lived there. Crime out of control under the LNP. Shame on them. Plus the disaster at the Townsville Hospital Urology Ward. Shame on them.
Question for William;
When do we expect to receive the results from the two big pre poll centres? Thanks.
No worries Upnorth. I’ll await your analysis next week.
Looks to me like a straightfwd LNP pick up, although neither WB, KB or you have called it as yet.
I don’t look at the ABC website anymore since AG dropped off. I prefer this site and the excellent posters we have here atm.
Anyway, when you have time to drop pen to post sometime next week…
* Is Miles’ time up?
* What caused the ALP primary to drop
* Was the by-election considered gratuitous, given the KAP candidate was only elected 12 months ago.
* Is the One Nation party a “fruitcake party”, or do they need to be noticed.
* Is this by-election result a typical QLD balancing act given we have no Upper house here.
What are the alternatives to Steven Miles as Qld Labor leader?
If I’m correct, the left faction bosses up there virtually dictate who’s going to lead Labor.
Looks like William’s model has called it – an LNP gain. Crisafulli must be happy with this positive message from the electorate. My understanding is he’s pretty popular.
LNP cracking 41%, now that the pre-poll and postals are in, will be a hard position to lose from with the split preference field.
And there we have it. ABC has likewise called it for the LNP.
nadia88 says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 9:34 pm
No worries Upnorth. I’ll await your analysis next week.
中华人民共和国
Anyway, when you have time to drop pen to post sometime next week…
* Is Miles’ time up? Not sure. He is popular in SEQ and sold 50 cent fares well
* What caused the ALP primary to drop. Some tactical voting and a candidate who abused people as they voted
* Was the by-election considered gratuitous, given the KAP candidate was only elected 12 months ago. Yes very much so.
* Is the One Nation party a “fruitcake party”, or do they need to be noticed. Oh they won Thuringowa which used to take in a lot of Hinchinbrook in 1998. They will pick up a decent swag of votes next but as William pointed out their HTV doesn’t always mean their voters follow.
* Is this by-election result a typical QLD balancing act given we have no Upper house here. Hinchinbrook is a traditional National Party seat similar to Burdekin. I was surprised Cripps was done there and the Katters picked it up TBH. It’s reverting to form. If the LNP didn’t win tonight they would be in big strife.
Looks like the KAP candidate was way less personally appealing than I thought, and the LNP candidate was slightly more personally appealing than I thought.
I give up predicting individual seat results.
Aw, bugger. Looks like the Frosty Mango has turned a rotten blue up that way.
Well, they get what they vote for.
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 10:04 pm
Aw, bugger. Looks like the Frosty Mango has turned a rotten blue up that way.
Well, they get what they vote for.
中华人民共和国
Frosty Mango has been on the melt for years. Not what it used to be
Arange, don’t you give up on anything.
You had the WA & TAS elections this year, – spot on. Literally to the decimal point in W.A.
You picked the results of the recent U.S. Gubernatorial’s (NJ & Virginia) – spot on.
Forget about margins, it’s the end result which counts and you have a thorough record.
You just keep doing what you are doing. I’m a big fan of your posts here.
Looks like the count has stopped at 74%.
Remaining postals & remote booths will probably come in Monday.
Can’t imagine the ECQ will be doing further counts tomorrow.
“* Is the One Nation party a “fruitcake party”, or do they need to be noticed. Oh they won Thuringowa which used to take in a lot of Hinchinbrook in 1998. They will pick up a decent swag of votes next but as William pointed out their HTV doesn’t always mean their voters follow.”
@Upnorth
I still think Katter Australia Party eating the forbidden fruit moment was Mirani MP Stephen Andrew defecting from One Nation to KAP. This is the second seat One Nation has cost KAP by preferencing the LNP after Mirani. And they have made a powerful enemy long term which could further hurt their electoral prospects.
nadia88says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 10:14 pm
“You just keep doing what you are doing. I’m a big fan of your posts here.”
Ok.
Thank you.
I’m also a fan of your posts, too.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 10:19 pm
“* Is the One Nation party a “fruitcake party”, or do they need to be noticed. Oh they won Thuringowa which used to take in a lot of Hinchinbrook in 1998. They will pick up a decent swag of votes next but as William pointed out their HTV doesn’t always mean their voters follow.”
@Upnorth
I still think Katter Australia Party eating the forbidden fruit moment was Mirani MP Stephen Andrew defecting from One Nation to KAP. This is the second seat One Nation has cost KAP by preferencing the LNP after Mirani. And they have made a powerful enemy long term which could further hurt their electoral prospects.
中华人民共和国
Agree mate. The Katters will slowly die. I think Shane Knuth is nearly close to retirement and he will get the a Pension. The LNP should win that back. Bob will go soon in Kennedy a I think Robbie will run there. They are a spent force. The LNP should pick those seats.
LNP at this point could win all 93 seats at the next QLD election. State ALP is dead. Crisafulli will be a 4-term premier.
Ofc I am being sarcastic. But if the LNP aren’t losing now, they never will, unless Labor get rid of Steven Miles. and the KAP and PHON stop running joke candidates.
Well, there goes any chance KAP had of expanding their empire after Bob retires. Looks like Nick Dametto took a big chunk of personal vote with him.
On current figures: 41.3% LNP, 47% other right (KAP, ON, FF, ex-ON ind), 11.7% left (Labor, Greens). Now that there’s no sitting KAP MP, some of that 47% could easily shift to ON – I wouldn’t be surprised to see a LNP/ON 2cp next time. The difficulty for them is that they’ll never get Labor prefs the way KAP did, so they’ll be unlikely to turn it into a win.
As for Labor? *shrugs* Not winning a seat they came a distant third in last time and haven’t held since 1960 doesn’t mean much for Miles. If there was a by-election in South Brisbane and the LNP vote was a few points off, I doubt there’d be anyone calling for Crisafulli’s head. He might not lead the party to the next election (first-term opposition leaders tend not to), but this won’t be why.
It’s a long way to the next Qld election – after the next federal one, so we’ll see what happens in Kennedy before then.
One other thing. Legalise Cannabis did what Labor probably should’ve done and sat this one out. They got 3.6% last time, and it largely went to the LNP and ON. A bit to the Greens (they didn’t come last this time), a bit to the other ballot-cloggers, but mostly them two. Just in case anyone thinks they’re a proxy for the Greens, there ya go.
But if the LNP aren’t losing now, they never will, unless Labor get rid of Steven Miles.
@Daniel T
An unwinnable seat for Labor in a bye-election is a lot to base this on, particularly when polling tells a different story for the LNP in Brisbane. No one in the media was suggesting this seat was a test of Steven Miles leadership. No one.
On a different subject, it would be deflating for Wayde Chiesa to win the bye-election. But then find out Hinchinbrook is getting abolished at the next redistribution. I know it’s been speculated in the media that one seat will get the chop up north to make way for a seat in South East Queensland. In the submissions, LNP recommended Hill be scrapped while the Greens recommended Thuringowa.
Primary vote of 41.3% in a aligned LNP minor party seat , The QLD LNP will unlikely retain this seat at the state election
If people are attributing a lot of the huge anti Katter swing to simply being mad about having to vote at all, how does that track with Dametto smashing it in the Mayoral race? Why did he get rewarded there but his party punished here?
Why did Labor even bother running a candidate in the first place? I guess the local branches in Hinchinbrook made a big fuss about it.
The alternatives to Steven Miles are probably Shannon Fentimen and Cameron Dick.
Their shadow front bench isn’t devoid of talent – eg. Mark Bailey, Mick De Brini, Grace Grace, Bart Mellish.
Crisafulli no doubt has a very supportive media up there, especially the Courier Mail and talkback radio.
A fairly complete toweling of the anything to the left of centre, demonstrating that the Farage/Trump toxic brew of race hate/crime/migration/sectarianism has the potential to be electoral killers in Australia.
Far Q, where the progressive vote goes to die.
The rural / metropolitan divide is truly on vivid display here.
All jokes aside we need to address this dilemma. Education is the key.
Why on earth would the KAP throw this seat away? The general
public resentment voting. They’d rather shoot farm and fish.
“The rural / metropolitan divide is truly on vivid display here.”
One vote one value democracy or tyranny of the masses is the reason.
SEQ rapes and pillages the regions for wealth to spend on themselves while at the same time dictating to the regions how they must live and operate. Prior to 1990 Queensland was growing as a whole. The state government was spending money building and creating wealth across the entire state. Highways, power stations, dams, mines agricultural schemes were all being done, often the big projects were all government built on time and on budget. A lot of work was done in house by government workers. Since then it has increasingly been a disaster. The bruce highway north of Gympie is an utter disgrace, even potholes are no longer getting fixed due to no money, but there are tens of billions of dollars freely available for a tunnel in Brisbane.
Since then the government/s have taken a SEQ centric view and along with endless new rules and regulations has killed off wealth creation in regional Queensland. I have noticed a lot of people now hold emotionally charged opinions on things that have zero effect on them. Probably the most classic example is the environment. Urban SEQ people dictating how rural Queensland people must manage their area. Meanwhile something like 75% of koalas in SEQ have been killed off since 1990. But that is acceptable because they died for urbanisation. The greens whose politicians all come from the most environmentally destroyed parts of Queensland, the inner city of Brisbane where it is all concrete and steel and not a kangaroo to be seen is real irony in action.