Kiama by-election minus four days

A contested by-election looms in New South Wales, offering a strong opportunity for a seemingly ascendant minority Labor government.

The New South Wales state by-election for the southern Illawarra seat of Kiama will be held on Saturday, presenting Chris Minns’ minority Labor government with what would seem a strong chance of improving its lower house representation to 46 seats out of 93. The seat is being vacated after Gareth Ward resigned on August 8 pending his expulsion over sexual abuse convictions recorded against him the previous month. Ward gained the seat for the Liberals at the 2011 election and held it as an independent after 2021, when he resigned from the ministry and the party after identifying himself as the subject of an inquiry of the child abuse and sex crimes squad.

Despite having changes hanging over him at the March 2023 election, Ward managed to retain the seat with a 0.7% margin over Labor, the Liberal candidate finishing a distant third. Importantly for the matter at hand, Labor recorded an emphatic win on the two-party preferred vote over the Liberals by a margin of 19.7%, with the bulk of Ward’s primary vote exhausting. The Liberals have not shied from the contest, despite early suggestions it might be better left to the Nationals, who made up for what they lacked in any sort of historic presence in the region in not being associated with Ward. However, the Nationals ultimately ruled themselves out, and the seat will be contested for the Liberals by former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley. Labor’s candidate is Katelin McInerney, who fell narrowly short of winning the seat in 2023.

I have belatedly published a guide to the by-election; live results will as usual unfold on the site from the usual time on Saturday evening.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

32 thoughts on “Kiama by-election minus four days”

  2. Just a couple of grammatical points:

    ‘Despite having charges hanging over him’…

    and

    ‘despite early suggestions it might be better left to the Nationals’

    Go Katelin!

  3. You would think Labor would comfortably win this, though I’m surprised there’s no teal independent. You’d think this would be a pretty good place for a teal – affluent, climate aware communities on the coast and in the well heeled, well educated southern highlands.

  5. I always thought that the fact that Ward was re-elected despite the charges he was facing told you something about the underbelly of the Kiama community.

  6. I think it has more to do with the majority of the community’s lack of intellectual curiosity and obliviousness to the news rather than an underbelly.

  7. That’s a bit harsh, Stuart. At the time I thought it was likely that most of the electorate were unaware.

    Notahorse, I’m pretty sure KATE DEZARNAULDS has C200 backing. She did when she ran for Gilmore in the federal election.

  8. Just a couple of grammatical points:

    ‘Despite having charges hanging over him’…

    and

    ‘despite early suggestions it might be better left to the Nationals’

    Both of those are fine.

  11. Lisa Cotton also ran as an independent in the federal election for the seat of a Mackellar. She’s actually married to a Liberal and is an independent in name only. Her real purpose as in the federal election is to split the non liberal vote especially any real independents.

  12. Re Ward who has lodged an appeal…I wonder as well looking at Trump and the RWNJs whether the accusation or otherwise of s*x assault or pdf-file against politicians is having no effect any more.

    Especially on the Right. They use such accusations to motivate others to change their vote but I suspect this stuff has always been performative for them.

  13. The Gareth ward saga is a sorry and sordid tale- the story of a closeted hypocrite that thought he could exercise the might and power of his office over venerable male staffers and party volunteers for his own deviant sexual means.

    This individual was one sick c@&t. At university he spoke of Dick Chaney as his political hero and held an erstwhile indulgence in post war 1945-1972 Anglo Celtic Australian societal norms and standards.

    As a legally blind albino he wasn’t really taken that seriously- he served a couple of terms on the shoalhaven council and got the Bradbury effect for a free pass into the NSW parliament amidst the disastrous 2011 Labor generational vanishing.

    In the bear pit he was little more than a two -bot populist, parroting one liners about princess highway duplication and eventually working his way into the Ministry for families and children (docs).

    He got lucky again by becoming the self-appointed Pretorian guard of the mods led by Gladys.

    The charges laid against him were so unexpected by him and a shock to his system that he decided to employ a truth defence of steadfast denial. By enthusiastically running for reelection in 2023 he was going to convince the courts and finally a jury that he genuinely thought himself innocent.

    He hoodwinked the geriatrics of his electorate to secure a thin but binding
    2pp majority.

    For what it’s worth I believe Katelin will win on primaries alone. She’s a future minister and will make a great member for Kiama.

  17. With all the forces arraigned against them it’s never easy for Labor to win.

    leftieBrawler,
    Got any pre poll on-the-ground soundings?

  18. Question from an outsider – is there any Indian – Australian voting bloc in Kiama? I can’t see any events lately that have gone in the Liberals favour. Jacinta Price’s antics look like causing harm to them. Unless Kiama is redneck territory?

  19. Not a local Soc but have a friend in Gerringong so visit occasionally. Looking around Kiama, Berry and Gerringong it’s heavily Anglo-Aussie.

  20. C@t- prepolling has been a rather stagnant affair with barely 1/6 of voters as of last night utilising the option.

    Katelin should win in a canter.

    The only unknowns relate to the attempted spoiling of the ballot by far right loonies that has resulted in 13 candidates – Katelin drew 13th. How will this play with optional pref?

    I’m sure it will all be fine though. Kiama is a bizarrely gazetted seat without any defined natural look to it.

    Kiama, jamberoo and its hills, Albion park , a bit of lake Illawarra , bomaderry, half of Nowra and then a pincer movement to the east almost making it to huskisson.

  21. Definitely not redneck, unless they’re wealthy rednecks:

    “According to the property website Domain, Kiama is now the second most expensive NSW regional market after Byron Bay, with a median house price of $1.48m. Prices have surged 63% in the five years since the Covid pandemic began.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/11/kiama-byelection-labor-favoured-win-big-loss-could-for-liberal-leader-mark-speakman

    Like most regional areas, it’s more anglo than the cities.

  23. Kiama by-election: Labor’s Katelin McInerney takes early lead in Kiama Uniting Church exit poll data

    Exit polling conducted by the Daily Telegraph has revealed Labor’s lead in a critical South Coast by-election spurred after the former independent member was forced to resign following a sexual assault conviction at a District Court trial.

    The NSW seat of Kiama – which boasts more than 18,000 registered voters – will have the by-election on Saturday after disgraced MP Gareth Ward was found guilty of three counts of indecent assault following an eight week trial in July.

    Ward – who was a Liberal turned independent – will be sentenced later this month, but has revealed plans to appeal the verdict.

    Now, a staggering 13 candidates have put their hats in the ring to win the vital seat, with former journalist Katelin McInerney running for Labor, and former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley running for the Liberals.

    Exit polling conducted by this publication at the Kiama Uniting Church pre poll booth reveals Labor has been the preferred vote approaching Saturday.

    Of 133 Kiama residents polled, 48 said they voted for Ms McInerney and 36 said they voted for Ms Copley.

    Meanwhile, 28 voted for independent Kate Dezarnaulds – who recently ran federally for Gilmore – 12 voted for Greens candidate and former Shoalhaven councillor Tonia Gray, three for independent Lisa Cotton, two for Animal Justice candidate Ellie Robertson, two for Legalise Cannabis candidate Don Fuggle, one for Shooters, Fishers, Farmers candidate Felix Nelson, and one for Snowy Monaro councillor Andrew Thaler – who has faced two suspensions from council this year for misconduct related to social media comments.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/thesouthcoastnews/kiama-byelection-labors-katelin-mcinerney-takes-early-lead-in-kiama-uniting-church-exit-poll-data/news-story/e579213c60b3d70a0cbe6fc29a65dc82?amp

  24. Wipeout – Secret analysis paints grim picture for NSW Libs.

    Internal analysis shows Liberals could hold as few as 22 seats in next state parliament.

    The NSW Opposition is facing a “political bloodbath” at the next election, according to secret analysis, with as many as 13 blue ribbon seats under threat.

    Large-scale internal analysis, seen by The Daily Telegraph and leaked on the eve of the Kiama by-election, shows Liberal Party insiders are forecasting fears for Coalition losses to Labor in seats such as Epping, Ryde, Winston Hills, Holsworthy, Oatley, Miranda, Goulburn, Tweed and Terrigal.

    Meanwhile, months of analysis shows an “overwhelming Teal threat” could put pressure on Liberals in Lane Cove and North Shore, while fresh analysis developed as late as Wednesday shows threats added in Manly and Willoughby.

    This could leave the Coalition with as few as 22 seats in the 93-seat lower house, along with a larger crossbench of independents, leaving it with a near-impossible task to regain power at the following election.

    The Telegraph understands the internal analysis looked at individual polling booth results at the most recent federal election, local government election results in 2024 and the 2023 NSW state election.

    Party insiders with knowledge of the analysis said it also showed the electorates of “Penrith and East Hills have lost further ground, while Camden, Wollondilly and Pittwater are all little to no chance of revival” at the next poll, due in 2027.

    Concerns were also raised about the likelihood of the Coalition retaining the seat of the Upper Hunter in fresh reviews conducted this week.

    And while a threat in Wahroonga was also put on the cards, insiders said analysis suggested long-serving MP Alister Henskens would survive a Teal wave.

    A senior Liberal figure said under-threat MPs had been requesting their own internal analysis of their likelihood of retaining their jobs, revealing they were “doing the numbers regularly”.

    The damning analysis comes just months after a wipeout of Coalition MPs at the federal election, with the Liberal Party retaining just six seats in NSW.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/internal-analysis-shows-liberals-could-hold-as-few-as-22-seats-in-next-state-parliament/news-story/c6d734db76e984a55cd8e6a809c55070?amp

  25. Internal analysis shows Liberals could hold as few as 22 seats in next state parliament

    The NSW Opposition is facing a “political bloodbath” at the next election, according to secret analysis, with as many as 13 blue ribbon seats under threat.

    Large-scale internal analysis, seen by The Daily Telegraph and leaked on the eve of the Kiama by-election, shows Liberal Party insiders are forecasting fears for Coalition losses to Labor in seats such as Epping, Ryde, Winston Hills, Holsworthy, Oatley, Miranda, Goulburn, Tweed and Terrigal.

    Meanwhile, months of analysis shows an “overwhelming Teal threat” could put pressure on Liberals in Lane Cove and North Shore, while fresh analysis developed as late as Wednesday shows threats added in Manly and Willoughby.

    This could leave the Coalition with as few as 22 seats in the 93-seat lower house, along with a larger crossbench of independents, leaving it with a near-impossible task to regain power at the following election.

    The Telegraph understands the internal analysis looked at individual polling booth results at the most recent federal election, local government election results in 2024 and the 2023 NSW state election.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/internal-analysis-shows-liberals-could-hold-as-few-as-22-seats-in-next-state-parliament/news-story/c6d734db76e984a55cd8e6a809c55070

  29. Anecdotal survey of one, a close relative with a trucking business servicing the South Coast is a traditional Liberal voter. Spends time on ShoutBack Radio.

    In conversation yesterday, it turned to politics and he said ‘Minns is great – he will have the job as long as he wants’.

    When pushed on why? ‘He is tuned in to problems as they arise, and gets onto it straight away. And you wouldn’t know the Liberals existed anymore.’

    He did want to tell me about how stupid Albo was wearing the wrong colour shirt at the South Pacific Forum family photo shoot…

  30. leftieBrawler,
    Have Labor gone with, Just put Katelin 1, or have they done some preference deals with the Left Minors?
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    ALP, Libs and Teals have a no preferences on their HTVs,

    The Libertarian goes, 2 to the Libs and stops there.

    The Greens go: Animal justice-2, Cannabis-3, Teal-4, ALP-5

    Cannabis go: Animal justice-2, ALP-3, Greens-4, Teal-5

    No other HTVS at the pre-poll I was at yesterday. I saw an on-line Shooter HTV also with no preferences.

  32. Good luck to Labor today. Historically bi-elections are hard for governments to win. I cannot recall a party less deserving to win than the NSW Liberals now.

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