Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor (open thread)

Roy Morgan records a dip in the primary vote for a still-dominant ALP.

Roy Morgan pops up again with one of its federal polls accumulating nearly a month’s worth of its regular weekly polling, in this case encompassing a sample of 5001 surveyed from July 28 to August 24. It finds both major parties down on the primary vote from a month ago, Labor by two-and-a-half points to 34%, the Coalition by one to 30%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation is up two to 9%. Labor’s lead on the two-party preferred measure based on 2025 election preference flows duly narrows from 57-43 to 55.5-44.5, though the change on respondent-allocated preferences is more modest, from 57-43 to 56.5-43.5. The accompanying report features breakdowns by state and gender.

DemosAU has a further result from a poll that last week that produced a finding on Palestinian statehood, this one finding 56% support for “the federal government’s proposal to ban access to YouTube for children under 16 as part of a broader social media restriction”, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted July 31 from a sample of 1079.

Nine Newspapers had follow-up questions from the Resolve Strategic federal poll on Tuesday involving matters related to the economic roundtable, which 49% knew about and 51% didn’t. Pluralities favoured a business cashflow tax (40% for, 15% against) and reducing or abolishing negative gearing (37% and 19% against) and capital gains tax concessions (41% and 21%), but predictably opposed increasing the GST rate (20% for, 51% against) and broadening its base (26% and 44%). It also found 64% support for work-at-home guarantees along the lines being pursued by the Victorian government, with only 17% opposed.

In other news, the first vacancy of the new parliament has emerged with recently elected New South Wales One Nation Senator Warwick Stacey calling it a day less than two months after being sworn in, citing “personal health issues”. The only reporting I’ve seen on who might replace him, which will be a matter for the party’s state branch, is The Australian’s observation of “speculation Senator Hanson could replace Senator Stacey with her daughter Lee Hanson or long-term One Nation staffer James Ashby”. However, “a One Nation source rejected this, saying the replacement should rightfully be a NSW resident”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 thoughts on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Why aren’t the anti-lockdown cookers blaming ScoMo (it’s not a race) and AZ Hunt for the delays in getting a decent vaccine that caused the prolonged lockdowns ..?

  2. “Deeming decided today is the day to compare Andrews to Stalin”
    Sounds like a defamation lawsuit waiting to happen.

  3. Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
    Thursday, August 28, 2025 at 5:13 pm
    “Deeming decided today is the day to compare Andrews to Stalin”
    Sounds like a defamation lawsuit waiting to happen.
    ————————————————-

    Only if she says it outside parliament. Unfortunately what Pesutto said about Deeming was said outside parliament, so she could sue him over it. Even though what Pesutto said was less extreme than what Demming and some of her acolytes said today. Also Pesutto’s claims were at least grounded in some degree of fact, unlike Deeming’s wild accusations today.

  4. Why aren’t the anti-lockdown cookers blaming ScoMo (it’s not a race) and AZ Hunt for the delays in getting a decent vaccine that caused the prolonged lockdowns ..?

    Because the people are a death cult who believed if you got covid or even died you deserved it.

  5. ‘Poor’ Bunnings:

    Bunnings’ operating profit for the 2024/2025 financial year was A$2.2 billion, with sales increasing by 3.3% to A$19.59 billion. This was reported as part of the parent company, Wesfarmers’, full-year results for the period ending 30 June 2025.

    Bunnings FY2025 Financial Highlights

    * Revenue: A$19.59 billion (up 3.3% from the previous year).
    * Operating Profit (EBIT): A$2.2 billion.
    * Parent Company: Bunnings’ results are part of the overall Wesfarmers Group results.

    This information comes from Wesfarmers’ full-year results for the 2025 financial year:

    https://wesfarmers.gcs-web.com/static-files/9a13afbe-c5c5-4d19-a7a2-34912c2f8f83/

    Can’t have shoplifters eating into their ~$3 Billion profit. Let’s shoot them instead.

  6. With reference to things Sudanese, I bet the right-wing loonies were all cheering in the colony of NSW when some 900 troops were sent to the Sudan (to deal with the Made Mahdi I suppose) in 1885.
    As part of assistance to the Imperial power at the time, they came home in 5 months.
    Perhaps it was from this time the fabled Sudanese Gangs (the phobia of LNP and others) have come into their own?

  7. Nick @ #957 Thursday, August 28th, 2025 – 5:16 pm

    Why aren’t the anti-lockdown cookers blaming ScoMo (it’s not a race) and AZ Hunt for the delays in getting a decent vaccine that caused the prolonged lockdowns ..?

    Because she people are a death cult who believed if you got covid or even died you deserved it.

    Yeah, it was mainly the elderly and those with chronic issues that died.

    “Cleaning out the barn” is what far-right reactionaries who thought having it spread naturally would be a good thing likened it to. The same mindset that the Nazis had when they tried to launch a policy that would have the disabled euthanized, but the German people weren’t willing to go as far as backing that, so they just did it secretly to undesirables whenever they could get away with it.

  8. Yeah, it was mainly the elderly and those with chronic issues that died.

    It wasn’t just the elderly, people with asthma whic is many or any chronic disease, if you were to point this out to any cooker their response is “oh well that’s there problem, but my freedum is paramount!”

  9. Russia doesn’t want peace with Ukrainians – it wants them subservient, or dead:

    “Ten dead and 48 injured in Kyiv due to latest Russian strike – photos, video”
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/08/28/7528165/

    “Russian missiles hit Kyiv in massive attack, at least 10 killed, 48 injured”
    https://kyivindependent.com/russia-drones-target-kyiv-ukrainian-cities-in-large-scale-attack/

    Russia launched a large-scale aerial strike on Ukrainian cities late on Aug. 27, attacking Kyiv with missiles and targeting regions far from the front lines.

    At least 10 people were killed in the attack, including a 14-year-old, authorities reported.

    Another 48 people have been injured, and at least 30 of those victims have been hospitalized, Kyiv authorities said. Several children are among the injured.

  10. In contrast, Ukraine targets Russia’s energy economy:

    “Russian oil refineries reportedly in flames after Ukrainian drone attack”
    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oil-refinery-in-samara-oblast-in-flames-after-drone-attack-media-reports/

    A large-scale drone attack against Russia overnight on Aug. 28 hit the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast and the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai, local media reported.

    The Novokuibyshevsk facility, lying some 900 kilometers (560 miles) from the Ukraine-Russia border, has a production capacity of 8.3 million metric tons of oil per year. The refinery reportedly halted production in early August after being damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes.

    Ukraine has made a point of targeting oil refineries lately. This is economically astute, as reducing the production capacity of oil refineries:

    1. reduces the supply of refined petroleum products (eg, for civilian motorists), and so puts upward pressure on retail prices at the petrol pump. This hurts Russian consumers, in both the household and business sectors.

    2. reduces the domestic demand for crude oil, putting downward pressure on wholesale prices crude oil producers can achieve for their sales. This hurts most of Russia energy producers’ revenues.

  11. As Trump’s US abandons Ukraine to its Russian tormentors, Europe is stepping up:

    “Europe boosts artillery ammunition production sixfold in 2 years, NATO chief says”
    https://kyivindependent.com/europe-boosts-ammunition-production-sixfold-in-2-years-nato-chief-says/

    Europe can now produce six times more artillery shells annually than it could two years ago, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said during a visit to Germany on Aug. 27.

    The production “is expected to reach 2 million rounds by the end of this year,” Rutte said.

  12. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, August 28, 2025 at 4:10 pm
    Matthew Knott seems to have gotten the details about the Marles-Hegseth meeting:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hegseth-s-undiplomatic-treatment-of-marles-reveals-a-chaotic-ungenerous-ally-20250828-p5mqhw.html

    _____________________

    There are two groups who should be deeply embarrassed by this whole incident: Hegseth & team, and the Australian media.

    As I noted earlier in the day, in the US system the left hand is no longer talking to the right. Knott noted a much more substantial meeting with the team actually running the show (Vance, Miller, Rubio), so Hegseth seems like a bit of a sideshow for any visiting Aussie official.

    And if Hegseth was really freaking out about a public Cabinet meeting – he’d have no chance in the Aussie system. Question time clearly did not impeded Matles or Wong engaging with the Indonesians today:

    https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2025-08-28/ninth-australia-indonesia-foreign-defence-ministers-meeting

    On the Aussie media, clearly they are totally confused by what is going on and reporting is all over the place. That the Pentagon was alone in not knowing what was going on is the story – hell, the AFR reported on the meetings yesterday morning, so where in the last 24 hours dod this story come from?

    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/allies-bowing-to-defence-demands-hegseth-boasts-after-marles-meeting-20250827-p5mq3v

    Here is the REAL scandal … who or where the fuck is this “Pentagon official” who claimed that no meeting happened? Is there a link to an official Pentagon press release that this is coming from?

    This sniffs of the Hassan Yousef nonsense allover again – Aussie media bamboozled by not doing its homework, which all its doing is confusing and misleading the public.

  13. Update on Russia’s latest deadly strike on Kyiv:

    “Death toll rises to 12 in Kyiv, including three children – official”
    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/czd0z0grm9lt

    We’ve just had an update from Tymur Tkachenko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, who says the death toll in Kyiv has risen to 12 – including three children aged two, 14 and 17.

    President Zelenskyy

    same source

    :

    “Russia chooses ballistics instead of the negotiating table. It chooses to continue killing instead of ending the war. And this means that Russia still does not fear the consequences.

    “We expect a response from everyone in the world who has called for peace but now more often stays silent rather than taking principled positions. And it is definitely time for new, tough sanctions against Russia for everything it is doing.

    “All deadlines have already been broken, dozens of opportunities for diplomacy ruined. Russia must feel accountable for every strike, for every day of this war.”

  14. @Bizzcan:
    “Here is the REAL scandal … who or where the fuck is this “Pentagon official” who claimed that no meeting happened? Is there a link to an official Pentagon press release that this is coming from?

    This sniffs of the Hassan Yousef nonsense allover again – Aussie media bamboozled by not doing its homework, which all its doing is confusing and misleading the public.”

    A very good point.

    Second time in a couple of weeks where the right wing media and the Libs have leaped to put about false information based only on some nebulous, unnamed and unsighted spokesman.

  15. That moment when you realise yet another one of your seemingly intelligent well educated life long friends was actually an antivaxer for the past 5 years.

    Sigh.

  16. Looking into whether or not there’ll be a Mount Gambier by-election in SA, it seems to be up in the air whether to go for it or not.

    The closest by-election to a state election was in Norwood on 10 March 1979 after Don Dunstan resigned on 15 February, the state election was then held on 15 September (even if it wasn’t due until September 1980).

    Now with fixed terms, it would probably be best if the seat stays vacant, since a by-election would happen in October at the earliest and the parliament gets dissolved in February anyway, it’d be a bit of a waste for an MP to be elected with 4 months to go. But I wouldn’t be upset if they do decide to go for it, see just how in the doldrums the SA Liberals really are.

  17. In the hunt for the nutter near Porepunkah, the bangs that keep being heard are from the police checking the various mine shafts that are in the hills around there. They will using flash bangs and CS gas to clear them out.
    It was a gold mining area in the 1850s. The Buckland Anti-Chinese riot was just up the Buckland river which runs next to the property where the police where shot.
    The bush there is thick. If he is prepared for a siege this could go on for weeks.

  18. “We have a lot of respect for Usman and we listen to him on these issues, as you’d expect,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said after the meeting. The pair, who are friends, had met earlier that morning. Chalmers joined him for the “good discussion” with Albanese.

    ….

    “…. he voted Labor at the last election.

    It begged the question, could he have his eyes set on one of the remaining few Brisbane seats that Labor doesn’t hold?

    “Never say never,” he cooly told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-28/usman-khawaja-richard-marles-pete-hegseth-sussan-ley-bob-katter/105694018

  19. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Thursday, August 28, 2025 at 6:09 pm
    In the hunt for the nutter near Porepunkah, the bangs that keep being heard are from the police checking the various mine shafts that are in the hills around there. They will using flash bangs and CS gas to clear them out.
    It was a gold mining area in the 1850s. The Buckland Anti-Chinese riot was just up the Buckland river which runs next to the property where the police where shot.
    The bush there is thick. If he is prepared for a siege this could go on for weeks.
    ——————————————————————

    Possibly might need to schedule a November fuel reduction burn through it.

  20. Dr Fumbles McStupid:
    Hmmm midwinter ball – the 6th form social for politicians and where is Cleaver Greene??

    In the bathroom. Where else?

  21. “The Trump administration has fired the head of the nation’s top public health agency just weeks into her tenure, and several other senior leaders have resigned, as disputes with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr over vaccine policy explode into the open.

    The ouster of United States Centres for Disease Control and Prevention director Susan Monarez follows a confrontation she had on Monday with Kennedy, in which she pushed back against his vaccine stance, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorised to speak publicly.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/us-health-agency-in-chaos-as-rfk-tries-to-sack-boss-who-confronted-him-over-vaccines-20250828-p5mqjr.html

  22. Re. Katter’s treatment of the Channel 9 reporter, in Queensland, his actions could constitute a charge of common assault, and although a formal complaint would normally be required, police can charge Katter of their own volition, provided there is sufficient evidence, which there no doubt is.

    ‘In Queensland, common assault is the least serious form of assault and involves unlawfully applying force to another person, or threatening to do so, without their consent and without a lawful excuse. This can include acts like pushing or hitting someone, or “making gestures that create a reasonable belief of an impending application of force”[my emphasis

    . The offence does not require actual injury, as any touching or threat that causes personal discomfort or fear can constitute an assault.’] – Section 335 of Queensland’s Criminal Code.

    It’s time for Katter to consider his future.

  23. Entropy @ #979 Thursday, August 28th, 2025 – 6:24 pm

    “The Trump administration has fired the head of the nation’s top public health agency just weeks into her tenure, and several other senior leaders have resigned, as disputes with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr over vaccine policy explode into the open.

    The ouster of United States Centres for Disease Control and Prevention director Susan Monarez follows a confrontation she had on Monday with Kennedy, in which she pushed back against his vaccine stance, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorised to speak publicly.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/us-health-agency-in-chaos-as-rfk-tries-to-sack-boss-who-confronted-him-over-vaccines-20250828-p5mqjr.html

    Secretary Brainworms doing his part to reduce the USA to a third world country.

  24. I had a glance at Sky After Dark since I’d imagine Credlin would have things to say about Moira Deeming today, but it’s just Steve Price filling in and he’s pretty much just glazing Donald Trump and Nigel Farage.

    I haven’t seen much of Credlin on SAD, I wonder what she’s up to? Probably coordinating with far-right ratbags alongside Tony Abbott.

  25. The punchline from the Matthew Knott SMH article linked by C@t @4:10 PM and quoted by Bizzcan @5:41 PM.

    ”…As for the flap over the Marles-Hegseth encounter, it is significant only because it symbolises a deeper truth: the US may be our ally, but it is an increasingly unreliable and capricious one.”

  26. One thing I should say is these SovCitz types don’t have a lot of patience, so the nutter might get bored and slip up sooner.

  27. ‘B. S. Fairman says:
    Thursday, August 28, 2025 at 6:09 pm

    In the hunt for the nutter near Porepunkah, the bangs that keep being heard are from the police checking the various mine shafts that are in the hills around there. They will using flash bangs and CS gas to clear them out….’
    =============
    Thanks. A pity. Quite a few of those abandoned shafts are now bat habitat.

  28. ‘All too cosy’: Crown Melbourne given two-year extension on gambling reform

    https://www.reddit.com/r/AustralianPolitics/comments/1n23mvb/all_too_cosy_crown_melbourne_given_twoyear/

    “Criminals will be free to keep betting cash on blackjack and roulette tables at Crown Melbourne after the Victorian government agreed to delay by two years the casino’s deadline for meeting a royal commission recommendation designed to stop money laundering.

    Under legislation introduced to parliament this week by Police Minister Anthony Carbines, Crown will have until December 2027 to enforce mandatory carded play on its table games – an integrity reform the government previously announced would be in place by the end of this year.
    :::
    Gambling Alliance Reform spokesman Tim Costello commended these changes but questioned why the government was giving the casino more time to fix a problem it had agreed to fix four years ago.

    “The royal commission found they shouldn’t retain a licence unless they do these things,” Costello said. “It is all too cosy with an ex-minister chairing the Crown board and Labor seeming to look after their mates.”

    Former Labor government minister-turned-Grand-Prix boss Martin Pakula stepped into his new role as chair of Crown Melbourne last month. Two sources with knowledge of the casino’s discussions with the government about changing its reform timeline say the conversation began before Pakula’s appointment.
    :::
    The government’s offer of an extended time frame for Crown to move to carded play on all gaming follows its decision to not include mandatory loss limits on its trial of carded play across 43 pubs and clubs in Melbourne and Ballarat starting next month.

    The design of that trial prompted the Alliance on Gambling Reform to withdraw its support. On Tuesday night, the City of Monash, one of three local government areas where venues are involved in the trial, also pulled its support after a council vote.”

  29. Mavissays:
    Thursday, August 28, 2025 at 6:26 pm
    Re. Katter’s treatment of the Channel 9 reporter, in Queensland, his actions could constitute a charge of common assault, and although a formal complaint would normally be required, police can charge Katter of their own volition, provided there is sufficient evidence, which there no doubt is.
    ———————————————————–

    Ironically every news report in the country is covering the story and pointing out Katter’s grandfather was Lebanese. While it probably would have been just a local news story if he answered the reporter politely instead. A bit of a Streisand effect there for silly old Bob.

  30. “How one dark day unravelled Australia’s narrative on terrorism
    The peddled narrative that a spectrum stretches from pro-Palestine protests to antisemitic violence has been discredited this week.

    Meanwhile, the real threat of white right-wing extremism has been tragically displayed.”

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/08/28/porepunkah-shooter-dezi-freeman-soverign-citizen-white-right-wing-extremism-terrorism/

    “The revelation was a hammer blow to the “rising tide of antisemitism” narrative promoted by the pro-Israel lobby, its media allies, News Corp, the Coalition and the Netanyahu government for many months.

    In that narrative, there is a seamless continuity of antisemitism stretching from any protests against or criticism of Israel’s atrocities in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, all the way through to violent attacks on synagogues, child care centres and homes and businesses owned or believed to be owned by Jews.

    The government had, it was said, failed to respond effectively to that organic surge in antisemitism by banning pro-Palestine protests, deporting protesters, defunding universities and establishing terrorism taskforces. This “crisis of hate” narrative now lies in tatters. It was first ripped apart by the Dural caravan hoax, which blew up in the faces of the two politicians who tried to exploit it, Peter Dutton and the country’s most pro-Israel premier, Chris Minns.

    The discovery that some — indeed, possibly most — of the antisemitic property attacks over the past year were artificially engineered by the theocratic tyrants of Iran and organised crime figures, rather than emerging as an organic outgrowth of support for Palestinians, has discredited those who insisted that any criticism of Israel was a kind of gateway drug to antisemitic violence.

    At the core of that narrative was a racism, one shared by the Labor government it was weaponised against, that there was something fundamentally illegitimate and un-Australian in feeling anger about a genocide unfolding before our eyes, that pro-Palestine protesters — especially those of Muslim backgrounds — were trying to import a foreign conflict to a peaceful Australia, that we would maintain its social cohesion if only people would stop marching against Israel’s atrocities.”

  31. The Hon Kevin Bell AO KC is a former justice of the supreme court of Victoria, commissioner with the Yoorrook Justice Commission and president of the Victorian civil and administrative tribunal. He is the author of Housing: the Great Australian Right (Monash Publishing, 2024). He has worked with the Victorian Greens on the private member’s bill that will be debated in the Victorian parliament this week to enshrine the right to housing in the Victorian charter of human rights

    Housing is a human right, not a business activity. It’s time for Australia’s laws to reflect that

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/25/housing-human-right-laws-homes-property

    “We are facing chronic housing problems decades in the making, systemic in nature and inter-generational in magnitude. The fairness and stability of our society are at risk now and into the future. We need to put something enduring into the system that represents the fundamental needs of people – which is why I am supporting a Victorian Greens private member’s bill to enshrine the human right to housing in law. …

    It would set a new foundation. It would ensure housing policy is guided by people’s needs, not profit motives, and it would guard against repeating the same mistakes in the future. It would be a gamechanger that would put strong pressure on the system to meet those needs always and for everyone.
    :::
    The system is failing because we as a society are making the wrong kinds of choices, as we have over a long period of time. Recognising and implementing the human right to housing will help us make the right kinds of choices for which we will be a better society.”
    ——————————————————

    Yesterday in the Vic parliament….

    “Over the last term of Parliament, Labor MPs declared 16 times that housing is a human right, but yesterday, they failed to vote with their values and make this law. Instead, they refused to let it go to a vote at all. ”

    (Greens media release)

  32. That moment when you realise yet another one of your seemingly intelligent well educated life long friends was actually an antivaxer for the past 5 years.

    The young couple next door to us are anti-vaxxers. Their kids, 3 and 6, have no friends, or at least had none until very recently, when some other anti-vaxxers with kids moved in nearby (children in NSW are banned from pre-schools unless vaccinated). So now they can all infect one another.

    Even their new puppy is unvaccinated. It’s going to grow into a monster: one of those 60 kilo-plus, fiercely territorial mountain mastiff breeds that should be banned. It can’t go to puppy school because of its null vaccination status. So it won’t have been socialised when it grows to full size in about a year. In the meantime, as these neighbours don’t believe in fences, they keep it in a cage. This is why I’m sure it’ll turn out to be a friendly, happy pup. Either that, or it will chew-up someone with extreme prejudice, and have to be put down. From a distance, of course.

  33. It is looking more and more likely the French government is going fall over soon. This will mean early parliamentary elections barely 12 months after the last. It is fast becoming ungovernable.

    The National Rally is leading in the current opinion polls and the other parties are unable or unwilling to work together to stop them.

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