I have a new thread about this one that will follow late counting in seats by rather conservative results system still considers in doubt. This post attends to the ones that it is recording as having changed hands, or close enough to it — I have made the cut-off point a 95% probability rather than the usual 99%. First though, a plug for my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the likely make-up of the Senate, where Labor and the Greens between them look set for a clear majority they didn’t quite get to after the 2022 election, despite having respectively lost the services of Fatima Payman and Lidia Thorpe (erratum: I have Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts the wrong way around in the article — it was the latter who was up for re-election). And second, here is a podcast I did yesterday in a state of hopefully not too obvious sleep deprivation (still ongoing) with Ben Raue of The Tally Room:
The summary below encompasses fourteen Labor gains from the Coalition based on post-redistribution margins from the 2022 election, which involves three complications: Bennelong was a Labor-held seat that became notionally Liberal (just) following the redistribution; Labor had held Aston since winning the by-election there in April 2023; and the defeated incumbent in Moore was elected as a Liberal in 2022 but contested the election as an independent. There are also two Labor gains from the Greens, both in Brisbane, and the special case of Calare, which former Nationals member Andrew Gee has retained as an independent. If these are the only seats that change hands, the final numbers will be Labor 88, Coalition 48, independents ten, Greens two and one each for Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. The other new post for today focuses on the undecided seats that could potentially change this calculation. Relevant to this question is a point made in relation to each seat below: fairly consistently, Labor did best on election day votes, second best on early votes and – so far – worst on postal votes. However, the first batches of postals are fairly reliably the most conservative.
New South Wales:
Banks. One of the election’s many unexpected Coalition casualties was David Coleman, just months after he was unexpectedly elevated to the foreign affairs portfolio in part because of his reach within a Chinese community that accounts for a substantial chunk of the seat’s population — for all the good that did anyone concerned. Coleman went in with a 2.9% margin and came out, on my current projection, with -2.6%. The swings were 7.3% on the day, 2.8% on pre-polls, and — so far at least — 1.3% in his favour on postals.
Bennelong. A technical Labor gain, having had a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.1%, for which my usual formulation of “accounted for by a 9.4% swing” feels like understatement. That Labor was up 13.3% on the primary vote and the Liberals down only 5.6% reflects the gap in the 2022 numbers created by the seat’s absorption of much of North Sydney, where around a quarter of the vote went to Kylea Tink. The swings to Labor was 10.9% on the day, 7.3% on early votes and 5.3% so far on postals, though the latter will likely increase as further batches are added.
Calare. Former Nationals member Andrew Gee held his seat as an independent from 23.9% of the primary vote, easily overhauling the 30.3% for the Nationals candidate after securing most of the preferences of teal independent Kate Hook (15.9%) and Labor (10.2%) to hold a 6.3% lead that late counting is unlikely to change much.
Hughes. A result no one saw coming was Labor’s win in a seat Labor last held before John Howard came to power in 1996. A post-redistribution margin of 3.2% was accounted for by a 6.2% swing, giving Labor a margin I project to 2.8%. In the absence of two independents who polled 17.5% between them in 2022, Labor gained 11.2% on the primary vote while the Liberals were only down 3.5%. The swings to Labor were 7.7% on election day, 4.5% on pre-polls and 2.1% on postals-thus-far.
Victoria:
Aston. James Campbell of News Corp related mid-campaign that Labor “hadn’t bothered” to poll the seat they gained from the Liberals at a by-election in April 2023, and every indication was that the Liberals regarded it as in the bag. I am projecting a 3.4% Labor margin from a swing of 6.0% compared with the 2022 election, almost exactly equal to the 3.6% Labor margin at the by-election. Swings were 6.7% on both election day and early voting, and 3.0% on the postals counted so far.
Deakin. The script for the election did not involve the Liberals losing seats in Victoria, but so it proved in Deakin, where I project a 3.2% swing off a Liberal margin that redistribution reduced from 0.2% to 0.0%. Swings were 4.6% on the day, 2.3% on early voting and 1.1% the other day so far on postals.
Queensland:
Bonner. Labor’s second ever win in a seat created in 2004 was not close, the LNP’s 3.4% margin accounted for by a swing I project at 8.7%. Primary vote swing for and against the major were around 10%; the Greens were down 4.7% on a strong performance in 2025, no doubt reflecting an increase in the field from five to eight candidates, and competition from Legalise Cannabis in particular. Swings: 9.3% on the day, 8.4% on early voting, 7.4% on postals so far.
Brisbane. Both in 2022 and 2025, this seat came down to whether it was Labor or the Greens who made it to the final count and defeated the LNP on the other’s preferences. In 2022, Labor scored eleven more primary votes than the Greens, a gap the latter closed on Animal Justice preferences. This time Labor is up 4.9% and the Greens are down 1.5% (with the LNP also down 3.3%), a gap the Greens would need nearly every preference from lower order candidates to close. A two-candidate count the AEC was conducting between the Greens and the LNP on the night has been junked, and it is now in the early stages of a count between Labor and the LNP that will only confirm the former’s winning margin.
Dickson. The day that Peter Dutton feared when he pitched for a safer seat before the 2010 election arrived at a particularly inopportune moment, from a swing of similar dimensions to a number of seats in outer Brisbane: 7.8%, compared with a margin of 1.7%. Dutton has a projected 34.9% primary vote, down 7.2%; teal independent Ellie Smith’s 12.8% kept a lid on Labor, up 2.0%, and contributed to a 5.7% drop for the Greens to 7.3%. Swings were 9.5% on the day, 7.0% no early voting and 3.7% on postals so far.
Forde. My system still gives the LNP a sliver of a chance, but I’m quite sure I’ve never seen a lead approaching 3000 votes slip away at this point in proceedings. Further discouraging the notion is that postals are not favouring the Coalition as they are elsewhere, the swings being 6.8% on the day, 6.1% on early voting and 6.4% on postals.
Griffith. The 3.3% drop in Max Chandler-Mather’s primary vote does not of itself explain his defeat in a seat where he outpolled Labor 34.6% to 28.9% in 2022. The decisive point was the swing from the LNP, who were down 4.1%, to Labor, up 6.0%, resulting in Chandler-Mather facing Labor at the final count, rather than the LNP as he had done in 2022. The AEC was conducting a Greens-versus-LNP two-candidate count that it has pulled in recognition of that outcome, leaving my system to rely on an estimated 70-30 break in LNP preferences in favour of Labor over the Greens in projecting the final result.
Leichhardt. The retirement of Warren Entsch presumably had something to do with the biggest swing in Queensland, presently at 10.1%, off an LNP margin of 3.4%. Booth results suggest Entsch was known and liked in Indigenous communities, but nowhere was the swing insubstantial. It was 11.4% on election day, 9.7% on early voting and 4.7% on postals so far.
Petrie. Another Queensland seat Labor has long had trouble shaking loose, this time doing so off a 5.8% swing accounting for a margin of 4.4%: 6.9% on election day, 5.4% on pre-polls and 3.4% on postals so far. I note that, with the exception of lineball Longman, Labor has won all the seats in Brisbane that formed part of Kevin Rudd’s statewide sweep.
Tasmania:
Bass. Northern Tasmania had one of its trademark changes of heart at this election, with noted Liberal moderate Bridget Archer’s 1.4% margin was demolished by a 9.8% swing, panning out to 10.2% on the day, 8.9% on early voting and 8.1% on postals so far.
Braddon. Unlike a lot of other places covered here, there were rumblings about northern Tasmania, but not like this: Labor’s Anne Urquhart, hitherto a Senator, picked up a 15.3% swing, possibly helpd by the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gavin Pearce. Labor was up 17.3% on the primary vote and Liberal down 12.3%, the gap reflecting the 7.8% vote in 2022 for independent Craig Garland, now in state parliament. The swings were 15.3% on the day, 14.9% on early voting and, unusually, higher yet on postals-so-far at 16.5%.
South Australia:
Sturt. The Liberals’ last seat in Adelaide, retained by 0.5% in 2022, swung to Labor by 7.2%: 8.5% on the day, 5.9% on early voting and 5.5% on postals-so-far. Their primary vote was down by more than Labor’s was up (8.9% and 4.6% respectively) because of independent Verity Cooper’s 7.3%.
Western Australia:
Moore. The Liberals’ last seat in Perth, retained by 0.7% in 2022 (bumped up to 0.9% by redistribution), swung 3.8%: 5.0% on the day, 2.6% on early voting and 3.1% on postals-so-far. Presumably not helping was incumbent Ian Goodenough, who ran as an independent after losing Liberal preselection and polled 9.9%, declining to direct a preference to his old party on the how-to-vote card. The Liberal primary vote was down almost exactly the same amount while the Labor vote primary hardly changed.
B. S. Fairman says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:28 pm
Confessions – ABC called Bullwinkle for the ALP earlier. Bean is looking strong for them too.
And that only leaves Calwell where it is messier than my teenage era bedroom and a very outside chance in Ryan where Labor can pick up seats.
I’d say 94 is where things end up.
中华人民共和国
Longman is also a good chance for Labor (William has Labor at a 56.9% chance).
The Liberals, I think, are in desperate trouble to Independents in Grey and Fisher.
Test complete, Ven. Is there more to come?
Mavis says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:34 pm
Test complete, Ven. Is there more to come?
中华人民共和国
Testing one two, one two (in Richie Benauds’ voice).
Confessionssays:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:17 pm
Stooges aren’t winners. They are just fans of the winners.
Fans of losers aren’t even anywhere near the podium and as such have zero credibility from the get go.
________________
If you had been a fan of Albo he might have been PM since 2016. But fans of Bill Shorten almost cost Labor their greatest electoral winner in over 70 years. The glazed eyed cult of Bill Shorten!
Should have mentioned: both Freycinet Lodge and Strahan Village are owned by NRMA so you can usually get a discount if you book through your auto club in whichever state you are a member.
Thanks Upnorth!
“The party of Robert Menzies won the support of only 20.9 per cent of voters – excluding the Liberal National Party (Queensland) and Country Liberal Party (Northern Territory) – but even if they are added the party’s vote climbs to just over 28 per cent. Twenty years ago, the party won twice as many votes – 40.4 per cent – without the LNP or CLP.
When Menzies led the Liberal Party to its first federal election, in 1946, he was despondent as the results came in. Ben Chifley’s Labor government had won re-election. When journalists phoned the family home asking for a comment he replied: “Well, what can you say when you’ve been run over by a steamroller?”
Last weekend, the party was hit by a Mack truck.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/liberal-existential-crisis-risks-the-party-sinking-further-into-political-irrelevancy/news-story/ec08e92e39b9c22f6a234fc0b240c2a0?amp
I don’t really think independents or crossbench parties (which aren’t seriously standing to be government in the same way that Labor and the Coalition are) should have proper policies. The responsibility of a parliament is to respond to what is happening. If the government proposes a climate change bill, we should know what kind of pressure a crossbencher will apply to it. The crossbencher thinks we need to do more to avoid dangerous climate change? the crossbencher thinks anthropogenic climate change is a hoax? We should know that. And a crossbencher who thinks the government isn’t engaging with them but just trying to crash or crash through, has every right to respond to that as they must. But it’s bad for everyone if the crossbencher thinks they have a mandate or an obligation to oppose a bill because it doesn’t go far enough or because they had proposed something incompatible.
Instead, we should know something about how the crossbencher sees the world, what they rate as important and unimportant and how they think change can be accomplished. Will they be an effective negotiator or will they be too weak? If they will be too weak, who will they be too weak too – the government? party preselectors?
Also, I think if the Teals form a party, they should call it the Teals. Why waste good branding? But I also think it’s perfectly fine for politics to continue with informal groups. If they don’t aspire to government let them just be the new DLP.
Confessions says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:41 pm
Thanks Upnorth!
中华人民共和国
Your most welcome you Labor stooge you!!!
Bill Shorten took the most clear-eyed Mather Blather Mouth approved housing policy to the election that Greens fan boys would’ve salivated over had it not been a Labor leader doing so.
If you weren’t so determined to hate on the man you might see through the red anti Labor mist clouding your eyes and your judgement and realise you’re on the losing side of history yet again.
Suck it up princess!
Upnorth:
Looking forward to the Stooge Summit!
Those who voted for Bill Shorten over Albo in 2013 came very close to destroying the Labor Party. It’s just lucky that Albo hung in there.
B. S. Fairman @ #2899 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 8:28 pm
#94in25 sounds pretty good to me.
Thanks BSF
nath @ #2912 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 8:49 pm
Nah, those who voted in the Labor leadership in 2013 engaged in a participatory voting process that doesn’t happen in any other political party.
Naths trolling is too demented and unhinged to take seriously.
Confessionssays:
If you weren’t so determined to hate on the man you might see through the red anti Labor mist clouding your eyes and your judgement and realise you’re on the losing side of history yet again.
_____________
Not in this case as I’ve been saying for the better part of 3 years that I think the current government is reasonably good and they will get my second preference.
Nick @ #2915 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 8:54 pm
Yes hilarious that nath has spent the best part of however long he’s been commenting here piling shit on Labor yet suddenly turns up after a huge Labor win not only loving on Labor but loving on Albo!
Too funny.
nath @ #2916 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 8:56 pm
Exhibit A.
nath says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:56 pm
Confessionssays:
If you weren’t so determined to hate on the man you might see through the red anti Labor mist clouding your eyes and your judgement and realise you’re on the losing side of history yet again.
_____________
Not in this case as I’ve been saying for the better part of 3 years that I think the current government is reasonably good and they will get my second preference.
____________
This song comes to mind. It even references Collingwood 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3ilSrh-QbE
If you check my posts I’ve been a big fan of Albo since before the 2019 election.
Dr Fumbles
Sigh..
The reason we can no longer get a good Vindaloo (or other) hot curry is the wanker who say “bring me the hottest curry you have”. And then, when they literally choke on it, rage at the waiter who brought it to them.
I actually have this on good authority from the Indian restaurants in the old “Little “India”, Cleveland Street Surry Hills.
I particularly remember Merri da dhaba (the First Dhaba in Sydney, according to their advertising).
It was probably around 2007, when I asked the waiter if they hd a new chef. He said “no”. So, I the said the we had been coming there since 2003, and we were surprised that the food seems far less hot. He the said “next time, tell us that you have being coming here since 2003”.
When we first moved to Waterloo, in 2003, we loved going to the Cleveland Street restaurants. The food was amazing, and chilli hot. But the heat from the chilli was balanced by other spices, and as you say Nath, a raita or a kachumbar.
The Chicken Vindaloo at Holy Cow was amazing, as was the Goan fish curry, and the sambas were to die for.
Longman – I am not sure if Mr Bowe’s model has been update during the day. From the results at the end of the day, I can’t see there is enough votes left for Labor to get home. The margin is 219 votes. There 2600 absentee votes, 3000 pre-poll declarations and a handful of others…. The gap just hasn’t been closing fast enough.
nath @ #2920 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 9:02 pm
Hilarious.
There are many more posts of yours criticising Albo and those people who support Labor by referencing them as ‘stooges’ and other disparaging terms. It’s only now that your cheer squad in nadia, Lars, Pegasus and others have abandoned you that you are trying to reinvent yourself as a Labor supporter.
Absolutely pathetic. Just go away.
Douglas and Milkosays:
When we first moved to Waterloo, in 2003, we loved going to the Cleveland Street restaurants. The food was amazing, and chilli hot. But the heat from the chilli was balanced by other spices, and as you say Nath, a raita or a kachumbar.
_______________
My local does a Malai Kofta, a potato curry that is extraordinary.
Oh well. If Labor not winning Longman comes at the cost of it winning Bonner, Brisbane, Dickson, Forde, Griffith, Leichhardt and Petrie, that’s a deal I’m willing to take.
Confessions says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:48 pm
Upnorth:
Looking forward to the Stooge Summit!
中华人民共和国
What do you call a group of Stooges together? A “Gaggle”? I asked Deepseek AI. It had a meltdown but suggested a “Nuisance of Stooges” in the end.
Douglas and Milko says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 9:06 pm
Sadly closed. Maya da Dhaba is still going strong though.
Also I’m 75% sure that those electorate names correlate to the names of Santa’s Reindeers.
nath @ #2920 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 9:02 pm
If you check my posts I’ve been a big fan of Albo since before the 2019 election.
=====================================================================
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_TdSvT9ddg
Sophomore surge whatever! Pocock got the rewards for being a good and clear-eyed negotiator. He was making mutually beneficial deals as soon as the last parliament sat.
Diogenes, I would rather be as you describe, ‘a union thug’, than a pompous pissant such as yourself!
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:43 pm
“The party of Robert Menzies won the support of only 20.9 per cent of voters – excluding the Liberal National Party (Queensland) and Country Liberal Party (Northern Territory) – but even if they are added the party’s vote climbs to just over 28 per cent. Twenty years ago, the party won twice as many votes – 40.4 per cent – without the LNP or CLP.
__________
Up North I’ve read so many blather posts about Labor only a third of the primary vote blah, used to get 40 plus blah blah blah so loved seeing your numbers as it is completely irrelevant isn’t it. The problem is clearly not one for the Labor party but so many bang on that it is otherwise.
The obvious fix is for the Liberals to run. Run quickly away from the Nationals and then gasp form a minority government if they are ever in such a position again.
I handed out at Macnamara last Saturday and there was a 30’s tech bro Liberal day trader that I had the (un)fortunate experience of standing next to. I’m not that fearful of the Liberals waking up after standing next to that peanut for 4 hours!
90 plus seats. I like to think that I helped influence a number of Liberals to vote Labor 1st as they were going in as there was going to be a majority Labor government at the end of the night so did they really want another green in the HOR’s?
I really hope they stay as dumb as dog s**t and don’t walk away from their Nationals anchor. 28% is a glorious set of numbers you may say…
I think I’ve recovered my hangover from last Sat night finally so back on a nice glass of red tonight!
Thanks all for the Tassie holiday recommendations. Looking at Oct/Nov after family is more settled to travel.
There is a phrase commonly used in the food industry, ‘Australian hot’. On the scale of mild, medium, hot, it resides under water.
Mavis
I too am grappling with this weird stuff – particularly the “into to gambling” stuff. My kids are aghast at what they are trying to deal with in their children.
At some stage (hopefully not after the sort of Armageddon that WWII provided), we will have to acknowledge the harm being done to our young ones. The gambling-enabling stuff relies on dopamine, and joining a cult like the Hitler Youth would also provide such a dopamine hit. I hope I am drawing too long a bow here. But, it does seem that the internet is great for radicalising our young ones.
For my kids, I am trying to help as much as I can. And of course my knee-jerk answer of “just do not let them use the internet” is really not helpful.
So, for my eldest grandson, just turned 12, I am discussing with him the idea of using the “Steam” platform rather than “Roblox”.
Steam has the advantage of being moderated, if somewhat lightly, compared to Roblox.
Also, if any one can comment on Steam, I would appreciate it.
Final advice re Tassie travel: best month is February. Weather gets worse the further you are from Feb.
parkySP says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 9:28 pm
Good on you cobber for helping out. “Doing Gods work” as my old man says. Yes. Those numbers are stark. The Liberal Party will be pulled further down the rabbit hole if they are tethered to the Nats. If Canavan gets up Monday what will the moderate Liberals do (are any left??).
Great news your having a Red. Good for the ticker in told. In moderation of course.
Socrates at 3.13 pm
Labor were marginally ahead at the start of the campaign, based on the MRP exercise then giving them a likely 75 seats off 50.2% TPP (Dr Bonham’s model gave them 73 then).
For only the first week the media (and players like Adam Bandt) could have legitimately considered a marginal Hung Parliament as a real possibility.
Then on Sunday 6 April came the biggest and least convincing Dutton back-flip on Work from Home. From then on Labor were well ahead with a steadily building momentum, but the media pretended it was still close.
Ironically, within a week or so of Dutton saying no credible observers were expecting a Labor majority, he had contrived to make it very likely.
Mostly Interested
You clearly have not eaten Japanese curry
The mention of “Japanese Curry” reminds me of this scene from The Nanny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkhTeMtm3XI
subgeometer @ #2939 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 9:49 pm
Here let me fix that for you “You clearly have not eaten Japanese
currywatery gruel”. Hah, yes I have had the misfortune, I have to say, Japanese cuisine is one of the most over rated in the world.The Daily Show by Jon Stewart
Trump on upholding Constitution: I don’t know ‘
https://youtu.be/7MPBf6GEDYs?si=uKgdryKMEY2Uc9uu
subgeometer says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 9:26 pm
Sophomore surge whatever! Pocock got the rewards for being a good and clear-eyed negotiator. He was making mutually beneficial deals as soon as the last parliament sat.
______________________________________________
As a Canberra resident I think Pocock did so well (has a quota in his own right and got more primary votes than Katy Gallagher) because:
1. He was not a self-promoting self-preening clown (cf Max the hack). On the contrary, when he had something to say he sounded thoughtful and considered – whether you agreed with him or not. It might help that he has never been theatrical in his presentation, even as a Rugby player. For those who only knew of him as a rugger bugger, this was a highly pleasant surprise.
2. The Liberals continued to be appalling. And they became utterly unelectable after the absurd and unworkable Liberal policy of losing 41,000 public servants was settled. It also didn’t help that the Senate candidate was from the Zed Seselja wing of the local Liberals.
3. The Labor government in Canberra is fairly tired, but the alternatives on the right are terrible and incompetent and on the left are off with the fairies. Pocock presented an opportunity for many Canberrans who wanted a plague on every party’s house to vote with confidence for someone who was not aligned and not a dickhead.
Interestingly, Pocock made a point of not taking Climate 200 money this time on the basis that, first, he didn’t need it for his campaign and, secondly, he could demonstrate complete independence.
The remaining moderate Liberals, if there are any, should leave the party and become Teal-like independents. Meanwhile, the rump “Liberals” can merge with One Nation, the LNP and the Nationals and become the far-right warriors that they want to be. Maybe include Newscorp in the merger.
The Nanny was a remarkably well written sitcom.
They knew their lane and they stuck to it. Plot in every episode goes like this: issue arises, Fran proposes solution, Mr Sheffield opposes solution as not waspish enough, Fran implements her solutions, and here will break one of two ways, solution is great and Mr Sheffield admires Fran, solution is daft and Mr Sheffield storms off muttering his waspish approach would have been better. Someone will always be the foil for Fran.
Incredibly tightly written, a master piece of the artwork.
Luigi Smith @ #2938 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 9:39 pm
April/May is not too bad if you prefer not to sweat too much on the 250m/7km Hazards/Wineglass Bay track. We’ve just come back from the Strahan/Cradle/Freycinet Circuit. Also recommend the cruises on Macquarie Harbour (Gordon river & Sarah Island – including the longest running play in the Southern Hemisphere) & out of Freycinet.The Wall in the Wilderness at Derwent Bridge. The Taswegeians do tourism well.
Arky at 11.59 am
If you look at the swing figures and the margins two factors were decisive against Zoe Daniel in Goldstein.
First, Wilson’s lead on postals was about 4,000, whereas it had been less than 2,000 in 2022. That difference is more than the likely final margin.
Second, there were strong swings to Wilson around Brighton. Nadia88 had mentioned a local issue possibly with resonance there (she claimed it had resonance and Daniel had been very wishy-washy about it, but I can’t remember if it was about Brighton).
On the question of effective ministers and good local campaigners, can you or anyone name an effective minister in a marginal seat who was not a good local campaigner?
There are many contrary examples, e.g. Kristy McBain in Eden-Monaro.
Andrew Constance proves the point in a different way. He was quite poor historically as a local campaigner, as King OMalley noted, and far from being an effective minister on major issues, well beyond boat naming.
Mostly Interested @ #2945 Saturday, May 10th, 2025 – 9:58 pm
Fran also had a small but memorable appearance in Saturday Night Fever
During the campaign, the polls mostly showed Labor 2PP in the range 50-53, with Labor primaries mostly in the low 30s. At least the sub-50 2PP and sub-30 Labor primaries had stopped. There was a 54 or maybe two, but no one believed them. I certainly didn’t.
I was expecting status quo at best, or more likely a minority Government, with a Labor loss still possible (memories of 2019, “wait for the pre-polls”).
Delighted to be wrong.
All I was hoping for was the LNP ending up with a seat count with a 4 in front of it. I underestermated many of my compatriots, and for that I’m sorry.