I have a new thread about this one that will follow late counting in seats by rather conservative results system still considers in doubt. This post attends to the ones that it is recording as having changed hands, or close enough to it — I have made the cut-off point a 95% probability rather than the usual 99%. First though, a plug for my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the likely make-up of the Senate, where Labor and the Greens between them look set for a clear majority they didn’t quite get to after the 2022 election, despite having respectively lost the services of Fatima Payman and Lidia Thorpe (erratum: I have Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts the wrong way around in the article — it was the latter who was up for re-election). And second, here is a podcast I did yesterday in a state of hopefully not too obvious sleep deprivation (still ongoing) with Ben Raue of The Tally Room:
The summary below encompasses fourteen Labor gains from the Coalition based on post-redistribution margins from the 2022 election, which involves three complications: Bennelong was a Labor-held seat that became notionally Liberal (just) following the redistribution; Labor had held Aston since winning the by-election there in April 2023; and the defeated incumbent in Moore was elected as a Liberal in 2022 but contested the election as an independent. There are also two Labor gains from the Greens, both in Brisbane, and the special case of Calare, which former Nationals member Andrew Gee has retained as an independent. If these are the only seats that change hands, the final numbers will be Labor 88, Coalition 48, independents ten, Greens two and one each for Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. The other new post for today focuses on the undecided seats that could potentially change this calculation. Relevant to this question is a point made in relation to each seat below: fairly consistently, Labor did best on election day votes, second best on early votes and – so far – worst on postal votes. However, the first batches of postals are fairly reliably the most conservative.
New South Wales:
Banks. One of the election’s many unexpected Coalition casualties was David Coleman, just months after he was unexpectedly elevated to the foreign affairs portfolio in part because of his reach within a Chinese community that accounts for a substantial chunk of the seat’s population — for all the good that did anyone concerned. Coleman went in with a 2.9% margin and came out, on my current projection, with -2.6%. The swings were 7.3% on the day, 2.8% on pre-polls, and — so far at least — 1.3% in his favour on postals.
Bennelong. A technical Labor gain, having had a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.1%, for which my usual formulation of “accounted for by a 9.4% swing” feels like understatement. That Labor was up 13.3% on the primary vote and the Liberals down only 5.6% reflects the gap in the 2022 numbers created by the seat’s absorption of much of North Sydney, where around a quarter of the vote went to Kylea Tink. The swings to Labor was 10.9% on the day, 7.3% on early votes and 5.3% so far on postals, though the latter will likely increase as further batches are added.
Calare. Former Nationals member Andrew Gee held his seat as an independent from 23.9% of the primary vote, easily overhauling the 30.3% for the Nationals candidate after securing most of the preferences of teal independent Kate Hook (15.9%) and Labor (10.2%) to hold a 6.3% lead that late counting is unlikely to change much.
Hughes. A result no one saw coming was Labor’s win in a seat Labor last held before John Howard came to power in 1996. A post-redistribution margin of 3.2% was accounted for by a 6.2% swing, giving Labor a margin I project to 2.8%. In the absence of two independents who polled 17.5% between them in 2022, Labor gained 11.2% on the primary vote while the Liberals were only down 3.5%. The swings to Labor were 7.7% on election day, 4.5% on pre-polls and 2.1% on postals-thus-far.
Victoria:
Aston. James Campbell of News Corp related mid-campaign that Labor “hadn’t bothered” to poll the seat they gained from the Liberals at a by-election in April 2023, and every indication was that the Liberals regarded it as in the bag. I am projecting a 3.4% Labor margin from a swing of 6.0% compared with the 2022 election, almost exactly equal to the 3.6% Labor margin at the by-election. Swings were 6.7% on both election day and early voting, and 3.0% on the postals counted so far.
Deakin. The script for the election did not involve the Liberals losing seats in Victoria, but so it proved in Deakin, where I project a 3.2% swing off a Liberal margin that redistribution reduced from 0.2% to 0.0%. Swings were 4.6% on the day, 2.3% on early voting and 1.1% the other day so far on postals.
Queensland:
Bonner. Labor’s second ever win in a seat created in 2004 was not close, the LNP’s 3.4% margin accounted for by a swing I project at 8.7%. Primary vote swing for and against the major were around 10%; the Greens were down 4.7% on a strong performance in 2025, no doubt reflecting an increase in the field from five to eight candidates, and competition from Legalise Cannabis in particular. Swings: 9.3% on the day, 8.4% on early voting, 7.4% on postals so far.
Brisbane. Both in 2022 and 2025, this seat came down to whether it was Labor or the Greens who made it to the final count and defeated the LNP on the other’s preferences. In 2022, Labor scored eleven more primary votes than the Greens, a gap the latter closed on Animal Justice preferences. This time Labor is up 4.9% and the Greens are down 1.5% (with the LNP also down 3.3%), a gap the Greens would need nearly every preference from lower order candidates to close. A two-candidate count the AEC was conducting between the Greens and the LNP on the night has been junked, and it is now in the early stages of a count between Labor and the LNP that will only confirm the former’s winning margin.
Dickson. The day that Peter Dutton feared when he pitched for a safer seat before the 2010 election arrived at a particularly inopportune moment, from a swing of similar dimensions to a number of seats in outer Brisbane: 7.8%, compared with a margin of 1.7%. Dutton has a projected 34.9% primary vote, down 7.2%; teal independent Ellie Smith’s 12.8% kept a lid on Labor, up 2.0%, and contributed to a 5.7% drop for the Greens to 7.3%. Swings were 9.5% on the day, 7.0% no early voting and 3.7% on postals so far.
Forde. My system still gives the LNP a sliver of a chance, but I’m quite sure I’ve never seen a lead approaching 3000 votes slip away at this point in proceedings. Further discouraging the notion is that postals are not favouring the Coalition as they are elsewhere, the swings being 6.8% on the day, 6.1% on early voting and 6.4% on postals.
Griffith. The 3.3% drop in Max Chandler-Mather’s primary vote does not of itself explain his defeat in a seat where he outpolled Labor 34.6% to 28.9% in 2022. The decisive point was the swing from the LNP, who were down 4.1%, to Labor, up 6.0%, resulting in Chandler-Mather facing Labor at the final count, rather than the LNP as he had done in 2022. The AEC was conducting a Greens-versus-LNP two-candidate count that it has pulled in recognition of that outcome, leaving my system to rely on an estimated 70-30 break in LNP preferences in favour of Labor over the Greens in projecting the final result.
Leichhardt. The retirement of Warren Entsch presumably had something to do with the biggest swing in Queensland, presently at 10.1%, off an LNP margin of 3.4%. Booth results suggest Entsch was known and liked in Indigenous communities, but nowhere was the swing insubstantial. It was 11.4% on election day, 9.7% on early voting and 4.7% on postals so far.
Petrie. Another Queensland seat Labor has long had trouble shaking loose, this time doing so off a 5.8% swing accounting for a margin of 4.4%: 6.9% on election day, 5.4% on pre-polls and 3.4% on postals so far. I note that, with the exception of lineball Longman, Labor has won all the seats in Brisbane that formed part of Kevin Rudd’s statewide sweep.
Tasmania:
Bass. Northern Tasmania had one of its trademark changes of heart at this election, with noted Liberal moderate Bridget Archer’s 1.4% margin was demolished by a 9.8% swing, panning out to 10.2% on the day, 8.9% on early voting and 8.1% on postals so far.
Braddon. Unlike a lot of other places covered here, there were rumblings about northern Tasmania, but not like this: Labor’s Anne Urquhart, hitherto a Senator, picked up a 15.3% swing, possibly helpd by the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gavin Pearce. Labor was up 17.3% on the primary vote and Liberal down 12.3%, the gap reflecting the 7.8% vote in 2022 for independent Craig Garland, now in state parliament. The swings were 15.3% on the day, 14.9% on early voting and, unusually, higher yet on postals-so-far at 16.5%.
South Australia:
Sturt. The Liberals’ last seat in Adelaide, retained by 0.5% in 2022, swung to Labor by 7.2%: 8.5% on the day, 5.9% on early voting and 5.5% on postals-so-far. Their primary vote was down by more than Labor’s was up (8.9% and 4.6% respectively) because of independent Verity Cooper’s 7.3%.
Western Australia:
Moore. The Liberals’ last seat in Perth, retained by 0.7% in 2022 (bumped up to 0.9% by redistribution), swung 3.8%: 5.0% on the day, 2.6% on early voting and 3.1% on postals-so-far. Presumably not helping was incumbent Ian Goodenough, who ran as an independent after losing Liberal preselection and polled 9.9%, declining to direct a preference to his old party on the how-to-vote card. The Liberal primary vote was down almost exactly the same amount while the Labor vote primary hardly changed.
From the previous thread:
Bludgeoned Westie @ #1086 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 11:54 pm
It’s still too early to ask but who do you think would get promoted to the outer ministry or assistant ministry. I’ve heard some names like Sally Sitou, Jerome Laxale and Madonna Jarrett but what about MPs Dan Repacholi or Ann Urquhart who I’ve seen are of note, but have yet to be mentioned by people to be candidates for these ministries?
Dr Gordon Reid
Ross Gittins explaining why Albo and Chalmers didn’t splash the cash to relieve CoL pressures
Dutton’s election campaign rout lets RBA off the hook
This my friends is the definition of a tin ear.
“The Greens are blaming the dramatic collapse in the Liberal vote in Queensland and targeted attacks from right-wing lobby groups for an election result that cost the party’s housing spokesperson, Max Chandler-Mather, his seat.”
Mostly Interested @ #3 Monday, May 5th, 2025 – 6:00 am
If the attacks had no basis in reality they wouldn’t have been effective. Duh!
Maybe The Greens should try less extreme virtue signalling, and banging on like they were still at Uni, next time if they want to hang on to their seats? Just a suggestion.
Andrew Hastie , could likely be a personality in between Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, he isnt ready for the federal liberal party leadership this term
In the Bonner wrap is this an erratum:
the Greens were down 4.7% on a strong performance in 2025
Should it be 2022?
There’s also no link to The Tally Room podcast with Ben Raue. 🙂
The Labor Party, even though their offering has improved, really need to get their postal vote act together for the next election. As we are seeing in too many of these close seats, it’s the postal votes wot won it for the Liberals or Nationals, or got them too close for comfort, in a number of cases.
Speaking from personal experience I received TWO postal vote applications from the Liberals in what looked like a very expensive AEC-adjacent looking letter with no external indication of who sent it on the outside of the material. So, of course, everyone would have opened it…only to find reams of Liberal election bumpf with the postal vote application form inside. I got ONE from Labor and it was very obvious who it came from, so would’ve ended up in many bins as a result.
I don’t know how many times I’ve gone on about the Dark Arts that the Liberals engage in, but they are effective, and Labor need to start doing it too. In the legitimate-adjacent way that the Liberals engage in.
Given there are only 14 or so true liberals left, (the rest being technically other parties, LNP and National), Tim Wilson could have a big influence on the future direction of the party if he wins.
He is an effective salesman, so could help with the team building this term, he is also a huge sycophant so will be hated as much as spud by genuine Australians.
They can only choose the least worst.
The Guardian
It’s a devastating result for the Coalition in a state they desperately needed to turn around. At best, the Liberal party could emerge with just seven out of 38 across Victoria – as many seats as their Nationals partners.
The Liberals didn’t see this coming – and neither did Labor.
“We were expecting the Luftwaffe to come in and completely decimate us – instead, we got Dutton on a lame pony. Their campaign was an absolute joke,” one senior Victorian Labor source said.
State Labor figures had braced for a swing away from the party – expecting a drop of between 1.5% to 2.5% while members of state caucus were questioning whether Allan’s leadership could survive a loss of more than three federal seats. A challenge was seen as inevitable if key seats fell.
The deputy leader and shadow treasurer for the lib/nats , will be interesting as well , like the leader there is little talent
Remember when I said Jacquie Lambie might be in trouble. I saw some PV data in Saturday that showed she night have lost 25% of her primary. Bit i have to check it properly.
I think she’ll make it but it’ll be close.
There are only two remaining senate spots in Tasmania up for grabs, with Liberal Richard Colbeck on 0.54, Jacqui Lambie on 0.47 and Lee Hanson on 0.39, the ABC reports.
Brutal!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-truth-in-the-booths-the-results-that-reveal-the-swings-behind-labor-s-big-win-20250503-p5lwbs.html
Newspoll tonight? Essential, Redbridge, anything?
Also on Tim Wilson, if he wins, his personality needs to be taken into consideration when choosing the leaders, even if he isnt one of them, because he will need to be managed.
Senator Hollie Hughes this morning on ABC RN unloaded on Angus Taylor and his failure to develop policy, stating that she would not be voting for him as leader.
“Forde. My system still gives the LNP a slither of a chance …”
They better get a wriggle on.
Desert Qlder, Monday, May 5, 2025 at 7:00 am:
LOL!
Subbing in for these, we got a new entrant into the polling field: Australian Voters.
Parramatta Lurker, Monday, May 5, 2025 at 7:11 am:
Just heard that too. The most cutting quote: “I don’t know what he’s been doing for three years. We didn’t have a tax policy.”
A Liberal Opposition going to an election without a tax policy. Imagine if a Labor Opposition went in without a health policy. (Come to think of it, I recall the Peacock Liberal Opposition went to March 1990 without a health policy.)
From “Sweeping policy reset needed to reconnect with voters, senior Liberals say – as others call for lurch further right” https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/04/sweeping-policy-reset-needed-to-reconnect-with-voters-senior-liberals-say-as-others-call-for-lurch-further-right
That’s a pretty big ‘polling miss’ – bigger than that of the published polls.
How long will the media keep entertaining the selectively-leaked party propaganda which masquerades itself as ‘internal party polling’ each election? The figures they put out from this ‘source’ are complete junk and only serve to clutter minds with a fake take on reality.
The media should just throw such propaganda straight in the bin from now on.
#weatheronPB
Dampness clings to me,
as I walk over the soil,
dull and wet again.
A shame to hear that Zoe Daniel might lose her seat to the big noting egotistical Tim Wilson. She has been from what I’ve seen , a erudite and thoughtful member. Tim though is a percussive fellow ready to explore any angle to beat to further the LNP cause his own drum.
Hollis lost preselection. No doubt she blames Angus (and co) for that and will be looking to extract maximum revenge in her last 8 weeks on the Red Leather.
Scottsays:
Monday, May 5, 2025 at 6:09 am
[Andrew Hastie , could likely be a personality in between Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, he isnt ready for the federal liberal party leadership this term]
There is no one in the new parliamentary Liberal party with the wherewithal to lead the LNP out of the quagmire of misinformation, deceit and self interest that has intruded every level of the Liberal party.
…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/months-before-election-day-the-coalition-was-soaring-in-truth-a-catastrophe-was-already-unfolding-20250501-p5lvqj.html
Sam Maiden remarked about the blue suits on Insiders. Looking back I can’t recall Dutton wearing anything else.
The polls got pretty close, with I think Morgan getting the closest.
The press got it seriously wrong.
I am having trouble believing the Liberals finally got what they deserve.
bug1says:
Monday, May 5, 2025 at 7:09 am
[Also on Tim Wilson, if he wins, his personality needs to be taken into consideration when choosing the leaders, even if he isnt one of them, because he will need to be managed.]
If by chance, Tim Wilson is elected to Parliament and the Liberal’s Parliamentary Party decide to lean towards Tim Wilson as a leader, it would indicate that the Liberal Party has not digested the enormity of their election loss.
The Telegraph is reporting a suspected Iranian terror attack was hours away from being launched on British soil before being foiled by Counter Terrorism Police. They say speculation is mounting that the target may have been a synagogue or another Jewish community site
Interesting that the LNP was basing their bullishness on p#$$poor polling, I was reading these reports and wondering what was the story. This narrative seemed counter to every piece of evidence- the most rickety campaign I’ve seen, Albaneses extreme confidence and composure , mainstream polling. What the heck is going on in the LNP, they have all the big money and media backing yet zero smarts.
Confessions: the Libs and Dutton himself kept banging on about his soft side. Maybe the LNP/ liberal slogan should have been – Peter Dutton a soft hearted guy with hard hearted policies!!!
It just occurred to me that, not only was I not alive the last time Labor got a bigger TPP than this, but neither were my parents. And I have teenage sons of my own now.
This has been an historic victory for the Albanese Labor Government. Congratulations to them!
C@t 6.16am
[I don’t know how many times I’ve gone on about the Dark Arts that the Liberals engage in, but they are effective, and Labor need to start doing it too. ]
The “dark arts” need to be banned altogether!
Looks to me like Labor could be a shot for a third senate in Tas, after 4 full quotes taken out we have;
LIB 0.54
JLN 0.47
ALP 0.43
PHON 0.39 (most to lib)
LCA 0.27 (Spray)
GRN 0.24 (ALP, JLN)
TOP 0.23 (most to Lib)
SFF 0.17 (most to Lib, ALP)
OTHERS <0.3
So my guess, Lib is safe for 5th, with excess from PHON and TOP and excess will favour JLN, that excess will be partly countered by SFF which should favour ALP over JLN because of her anti-salmon farms stance, maybe JLN will have a 0.1 advantage or so;
Then it gets down to LCA, GRN and OTHERS, their 0.8 quote will decide.
I reckon it all starts with who they are preselecting. They are preselecting people who are inside the Sky After Dark bubble rather than broadly picking people who are representative of the community.
Not only has this led to them having candidate problems at the start of the campaign (eg in Whitlam), but look at the lack of talent on the front bench. They’ve essentially got nobody with any acclaim and it’s led to a complete policy vacuum.
French police investigate spate of cryptocurrency millionaire kidnappings
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/04/french-police-investigate-spate-of-cryptocurrency-millionaire-kidnappings
Obligatory xkcd:
Herald Sun 05/04
Labor insiders have claimed Jacinta Allan is “delusional” after she declared the contentious $34.5bn Suburban Rail Loop helped Anthony Albanese win seats in Victoria.
“It is as delusional as it is insulting to federal Labor, its volunteers and MPs for the state government to say SRL had anything to do with Saturday’s result,” one senior insider, familiar with the campaign, said.
_____________________
Nice try Jacinta, but you are still in the shit.
Larissa Waters, the Qld Senator for the Greens telling all and sundry, how the Greens, with their new found balance of power in the Senate, are going to tell the government how to govern.
umm!
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump mostly — but not entirely — rules out military action on Canada: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/04/canada-trump-carney-military
Trump says he ‘doesn’t rule out’ using military force to control Greenland: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/04/trump-greenland-denmark-military-force
Zelenskyy: Trump says Russia won’t touch Ukraine if U.S. investments are here: https://global.espreso.tv/volodymyr-zelenskyy-zelenskyy-trump-says-russia-wont-touch-ukraine-if-us-investments-are-here
Thousands of supporters of an Islamist group rallied in Bangladesh’s capital on Saturday to denounce proposed recommendations for ensuring equal rights, including ones related to property, for mainly Muslim women: https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-women-rights-islamists-rally-114e1acbe56e7be75bc9b5273365a17a
Japan Presses U.S. to Scrap 25％ Auto Tariffs as Ishiba Refuses Partial Trade Deal; No Deal Without ‘Total Rollback’: https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20250504-252640/
Iran says it will strike back if US or Israel attack: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-will-strike-back-if-us-or-israel-attack-2025-05-04/
Elon Musk: It Is ‘Outrageous’ to ‘Claim That I’m a Nazi’: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/elon-musk-nazi-claims-fox-news-1235330984/
Trump, asked if he has to ‘uphold the Constitution,’ says, ‘I don’t know’: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-asked-uphold-constitution-says-dont-know-rcna204580
Is Trump in mental decline? He sounds far worse than Biden ever did: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2025/05/04/trump-interview-abc-time-mental-decline/83391080007/
We Could Soon Be Seeing Empty Shelves Everywhere. Here’s Which Items Might Disappear First: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/empty-shelves-tariffs_l_6812344fe4b0f2831ff14bfa
DOGE says it has saved $160 billion. Those cuts have cost taxpayers $135 billion, one analysis says: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-cuts-cost-135-billion-analysis-elon-musk-department-of-government-efficiency/
Kash Patel Took $25,000 From Russia-Linked Firm to Appear on an Anti-FBI TV Series: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/02/kash-patel-fbi-trump-tucker-carlson-russia-ukraine-putin/
Half of Britons ‘would not fight for their country under any circumstances today’: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/half-of-britons-would-never-fight-for-their-country-in-a-war-b1225871.html
UK adds just 65 miles of motorway in 10 years – Large proportion of additional capacity could be down to statistical anomaly, says transport expert: https://www.ft.com/content/47203d21-db4a-4791-8f81-c2db6a80f200
‘Imminent terror attack’ on British soil foiled: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/04/iranian-terror-attack-uk-hours-away-from-being-launched/
Taylormade
Herald Sun 05/04?
William
Just heard you on ABC NewsRadio on the way to work.
Well done – and thanks again for your brilliant results page which is pretty much the only thing I looked at on election night for results as it was so much better than any other media offering.
goll @ #38 Monday, May 5th, 2025 – 7:51 am
They’ve clearly learned nothing from the election results!
Taylormadesays:
Monday, May 5, 2025 at 7:50 am
Herald Sun 05/04
Labor insiders have claimed Jacinta Allan is “delusional” after she declared the contentious $34.5bn Suburban Rail Loop helped Anthony Albanese win seats in Victoria.
“It is as delusional as it is insulting to federal Labor, its volunteers and MPs for the state government to say SRL had anything to do with Saturday’s result,” one senior insider, familiar with the campaign, said.
_____________________
Nice try Jacinta, but you are still in the shit.
__________________________
Wait for the first of the Ribbon cuttings (metro tunnel) that she will do and then everyone will want more. Stage 1 of the SRL is still going to be built regardless. Once it opens and all the Monash and Deakin uni traffic evaporates, people are going to appreciate what the SRL will deliver.
Potential Liberal leadership?
The CLP strategy of taking their campaign to the outer metropolitan areas of the cities, with a couple of exceptions, was successful.
In Sydney, they hold the northern fringe – Berowra, the north-western fringe – Mitchell, the western fringe – Lindsay and the southern fringe- Cook.
Mission accomplished.
WB was on AM this morning!
Sounded a bit like Alexander Downer 🙂
Fantastic. Great move. Well done Angus.
(Never gets old)
Jacinta Allan storms back in a landslide
Taylormade: Well there’s still the P&C election I suppose
Alpha zero
Agreed.
Although I still feel that Jacinta Allan will remain unpopular.
One of the contenders to be Liberal leader, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor, has been blasted by Liberal senator Hollie Hughes, who claims his lack of policy work was to blame for the party’s election rout. “I have concerns about his capability. I feel we have zero economic policy to sell,” Senator Hughes said on Radio National. “I don’t know what he’s been doing for three years. There was no tax policy, there was no economic narrative.”
Senator Hughes said a “huge number” of her Liberal colleagues shared that concern. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-05/angus-taylor-criticised-not-liberal-leader-blame-loss/105252158
Thanks for the soundbite Hollie: ALP