Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.
Live commentary
8.30pm. Just popping in to say my results system seems to be working well, and if you’re finding it of value, perhaps you might consider making a contribution through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site or the bottom of each post.
6.21pm. My system has successfully processed the first booth, which is the CBD pre-poll result for Fowler.
Preview
Polls have closed on the eastern seaboard, so welcome to the the live thread for discussion of the results for tonight’s federal election. I will be doing honest work this evening in the data room at the Nine Network (on which Ally Langdon, Peter Overton, Charles Croucher, Andrew Probyn and Liz Daniels will be joined by Chris Bowen, Bridget McKenzie, Katy Gallagher and Christopher Pyne), so I won’t be in a position to provide live commentary, though I may sneak in the odd explainer about technical aspects of the count and things that are going on with my live results.
On that front, the link above will take you to one of two entry platforms, the other of which is a map display that will colour in as results are reported to reflect who the system deems to be ahead or to have won, respectively indicated with a lighter or darker shade. Scroll over an electorate on the map and you’ll a window with a two-party pie chart and other essentials of the result. Click and the results page for the seat will be revealed, featuring progress totals, projections, probability estimates, a table recording votes and swings for each booth and, if you click on the button at the bottom, a booth results display map. The results system is based on a three-candidate model that hopefully had the bugs ironed out of it when it had a run at the Western Australian election in March. This will prove especially useful in Macnamara, the Greens seats in Brisbane and possibly one or two other places I can’t presently foresee.
The AEC is conducting Labor versus Greens counts in Grayndler, Sydney, Cooper, Wills and Canberra; LNP versus Greens in Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan; Greens versus Liberal in Melbourne; Liberal versus independent in Warringah (Zali Steggall), Wentworth (Allegra Spender), Mackellar (Sophie Scamps), Goldstein (Zoe Daniel), Kooyong (Monique Ryan), Indi (Helen Haines), Bradfield (Nicolette Boele), Cowper (Caz Heise) and Wannon (Alex Dyson); LNP versus independent (Kate Hook) in Groom; Nationals versus independent (Andrew Gee) in Calare; Labor versus independent in Fowler (Dai Le) and Clark (Andrew Wilkie); LNP versus One Nation in Maranoa; Bob Katter versus LNP in Kennedy. The information for South Australia, the Northern Territory and Western Australia will be provided when voting closes there.
If the choices in the Greens seats in Brisbane can be faulted for not including Labor where it seems possible or even likely (in the case of the seat of Brisbane) they will win, the results will in fact likely come down to whether Labor makes the final count, on which a two-candidate count would offer no guidance no matter who was chosen. This point can be illustrated with reference to Macnamara, where this evening’s Labor-versus-Liberal count is unlikely to tell us much: barring a better-than-expected result for the Liberals, Labor should win if they make the final count, and the Greens should win if they don’t. We may see a repeat of the ad hoc three-candidate counts that the AEC conducted for some of these seats after the 2022 election in the days to come. It is here that the Poll Bludger results feature comes into its own, as it integrates probability estimates for who makes the final count and what chance they have when the get there. However, this will of necessity be based on pre-determined estimates of preference flows unless and until three-candidate counts are conducted.
Now for some high wonk factor detail about the specifics of the count and the projection of the results. The Australian Electoral Commission relieves those of us in the election industry of the burden of producing “historic” data, namely estimates of how each polling place or vote type voted at the last election, a matter complicated by changes in locations and electoral boundaries. It is on this basis that swings can be calculated on a like-for-like basis, and a determination made as to whether they are big enough to cause the seat to change hands. The challenge it has faced on this occasion has been greater than ever because of the unprecedented number of independents who won seats last time, and the fact that nearly all of them were in states where redistributions have occurred. This means most of them are running in areas where they weren’t on the ballot paper last time, meaning there is no good way of determining their “historic” vote in these areas.
In a couple of cases, the AEC’s processes have led it to data that is of little value. The most glaring case involves Wills and Cooper: inner Melbourne seats where the threat to Labor from the Greens has intensified with the addition of territory from the seat of Melbourne. For reasons too arcane to go into, the AEC credits Labor with respective margins here of 9.0% and 8.9%, which makes little account of Greens strength in the newly added areas (my own determinations have it at 4.2% and 7.8%). Presumably to keep the historic two-candidate totals at this level, the AEC has produced two-candidate histories in booths around Carlton North and Fitzroy North that are wildly out of line with how people actually vote there. To pick one example: the Greens are allocated 30.4% in the Merri booth in Wills, where Adam Bandt got 65.9% in 2022. By contrast, the primary vote history has the Greens at a sensible 57.6% in this booth, suggesting the mathematical impossibility of them losing votes after preferences. If such booths are the first to report in these seats, the AEC’s early projection for the Greens in these seats will be massively inflated.
Independent incumbents, who in every case are teals, have been allocated zero primary votes in areas that were not in their electorates in 2022, meaning they will be credited with swings in these booths equal to the entirety of their vote. This presents my results system with a problem, as primary vote swings are a crucial element in how the final result is projected. If the AEC cannot be faulted for not crediting independents with invented numbers, they have in effect done so on two-candidate preferred – in this case with mostly plausible results. The AEC will use this data to produce useful swings and projections of its own based entirely on the two-candidate count. But it doesn’t do me any good, because my system is geared to make use of the primary vote, which gets counted first and is thus ahead of the curve.
There is one independent seat where I believe the AEC’s two-candidate determinations in areas now to the electorate will be of as little value as those noted for Wills and Cooper, namely Wentworth. In December, the AEC published its estimated margins for redistributed independent seats, which you can read more about here. The historic booth data matches these margins in every case except Wentworth, where it seems the previously published estimate of a 0.6% margin for Allegra Spender had it the wrong way around. The historic booth data in fact provides for a Liberal margin of 0.6% in this seat, such that Spender will need to record a swing in her favour to be projected as winning. I do wonder though if something might have gone awry in the AEC’s calculations, as its historic two-candidate numbers weigh heavily against Spender in such Liberal-unfriendly areas as Woolloomooloo and Kings Cross. So here too, the AEC’s early projections will be unreliable – specifically, heavily weighted towards Spender – if these booths happen to be among the first to report.
My approach to deal with these problems, which I can only hope won’t run into any major bugs, involves abandoning my usual effort to project preference flows based on booth matching, and – in the case of the independent-held seats – also to make no effort to project the primary vote. The numbers in both cases will simply be based on whatever the progress count happens to be. There are two independent seats whose newly acquired areas aren’t big enough for me to consider any of this a problem, namely Fowler (which gains a part of the suburb of Weatherill Park) and Wannon (which gains rural territory at the eastern end of the electorate).
Greens are their worst enemy.
If they worked with Labor over the last 3 years, instead of being a-holes they would still have all their seats.
KARMA
Only the truest of true believers had hard earned on Labor in Petrie. Incredible result and as a betting man (only on elections) I’ve absolutely cleaned up. Thank you all for your company and knowledge
98.6 says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 1:10 am
Greens are their worst enemy.
If they worked with Labor over the last 3 years, instead of being a-holes they would still have all their seats.
KARMA
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
As we say in Thailand – Karma is a bitch.
‘Oh,what a night’ song by Frankie Valli is stuck in my head.
brucemainstream shit yeah brother as an erstwhile punter it was the depth of knowledge that drew me to the site
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-late-night-live.html
2025 Late Night Live
“ราชอาณาจักรไทย
As we say in Thailand – Karma is a bitch.”
Cetainly is UpNorth. Aussies know fake bullshit. and Dutton and Bandt reeked of it
brucemainstream says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 1:14 am
Only the truest of true believers had hard earned on Labor in Petrie. Incredible result and as a betting man (only on elections) I’ve absolutely cleaned up. Thank you all for your company and knowledge
*****
You sir are a scholar and a gentleman.
Not in bed yet Up North ?
What time is it up there ?
No-one should have any sympathy or regret that Chandler-Mather has been sent packing.
This is the person who gloated that he and the LNP water carriers, were deliberately blocking legislation in the Senate that would have helped renters and home buyers, as well as assisting the most vulnerable in the community so they could harvest votes from the ALP.
Good riddance to him and hopefully Bandt and yep, I am doing a jig on the Greens grave.
The sooner they make a proper Green like Sarah Hanson-Young leader and lance the boil that is the Melbourne inner city extremist faction of the party, the sooner the Greens can become a party of conscience once again and working with the ALP instead of deluding themselves, into thinking that they can subsume the Labor Party, the better we will al be.
Thumping victory for Labor, and time for the Greens to toss the liberal party tactics book they got sold cheap (‘cos it was due to be remaindered). A lesson in politics I hope they will learn from.
Congratulations to Albo and Labor, and hopefully we will see a realignment that allows for more progress on the civilisation-threatening challenges we face
The gap in Grey is down to 3.6% (ALP-Kuss). Game on.
Doubledummysays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 12:52 am
Senate updates from the ABC
—–
Your numbers add to 74, there are 76 seats. I think you forgot the Nats.
98.6 says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 1:19 am
Not in bed yet Up North ?
What time is it up there ?
*****
About to hit the sack. 10.22pm – gotta tke my brain pills and sleep. 15 km today in nervous anticipation.
You sir should be asleep! But hey it’s historic.
Glen you might be right, I was pulling from the ABC Senate page and they didn’t list them in any group, so yes please add this to my breakdown.
Nats 0 +2 continuing 1 in NSW and 1 in Vic
If the mainstream polls (which I think averaged about 52-52.5 for Labor) were a bit off, what then to make of SkyNews Sharri Markson’s ‘secret’ seat polling showing the Liberals were in with a real chance?
Someone sold her a dud there.
Goodnight all and god bless. Thank you William for this wonderful site. I shall assist in the next week once my pension comes in. I hope other bludgers can do the same. Go well.
Up North
Yes you’re right, I didn’t realise it was 1.26 here.
Its been a long day having to get up early for handing out HTV cards.
Still it was worth it to steal a seat off the Libs in Brisbane.
“The sooner they make a proper Green like Sarah Hanson-Young”
You mean the former student human rights lawyer and refugee advocate? I’d like both parties to work together, but I’m not sure either wants that at the moment.
Upnorth at 1.06 am
Glad to see you enjoying the Labor victory, particularly with the Qld bonus to Labor’s majority.
On a side issue, the PAP in Singapore is nothing like the Australian Labor Party. Much evidence to show that exists, but just focus on one key theme, which is ratification of UN human rights treaties.
Singapore still has not ratified the main ones, except for the Convention Against Racism. See list at:
https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/TreatyBodyExternal/Treaty.aspx?CountryID=157&Lang=EN
Whitlam stressed the importance of human rights to Labor’s historic role. Nothing like it in Singapore.
On the reasons for the extent of Labor’s victory, see Dr Bonham’s discussion of momentum on Wed:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/04/over-horizons-2025-final-week-rolling.html
Key comment is this: “Labor surging while already ahead hasn’t happened in the Newspoll era. [Yet]
Overall when a party surges the polls are generally either accurate or underestimate the surging party, with 1996 the only clear exception”, although not a real exception since momentum was illusory then.
Most people, with several exceptions here, understated the extent of Labor’s win because this factor, the typical underestimation of the surging government party, was undervalued, mainly because, as Dr Bonham notes, “usually the surging side has been the Coalition”.
Even little old Bluey was misled by the media into believing the hype about a Hung Parliament.
Dr Bonham said all along that scenario was a long way from the near certainty that the media believed.
He has a little dig about the shortsightedness of the media in his Late Night Live commentary:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-late-night-live.html
Before I head off there’s something I may have forgotten to mention:
What a shockingly awful and embarrassing performance from the worthless muppets at the West Australian newspaper, a conga line of clowns, reporting to a donkey, which is in turn owned by a preposterous war crime boosting buffoon who is not fit to lick the dog excrement from Penny Wong’s boots.
Anyway just in case I did not mention that, goodnight.
Omar Comin’ says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 12:44 am
Hack, woke, Partisan, comrade, I almost missed your post amongst the noise!
Brother! This almost feels like redemption, almost like everything is Ok just for a minute
No, they have not got the message, But that’s ok for us in our little corner of the world
Onward and Upward! Much love!
The voters have very clearly sought safety in a storm and have rejected the evasions and the cynical, vacuously ideological nonsense from the Reactionaries. Once again, Labor has done the heavy lifting.
The Reactionaries have campaigned against themselves non-stop and are now in their worst position since federation.
For Labor, while this battle has been won the struggle to govern well commences immediately.
My friend, congratulations too on believing in Labor and in the people. These are values to keep close. Bravo.
It’s a previous piece that Dr Bonner did about real hung parliament outcomes, as in they happen a lot less than have predicted, that cured me of that expectation. Even when they happen, it’s not usually for the reasons one thinks.
HWP, word brother.
I’ve always wanted to express or explain to people why I like Welcome to Country.
Albo helped me by answering a question, at the press club I think it was, by saying he finds them “uplifting”.
Its just how I feel.
Australia faced a fork in the road and rejected the right wing option. What a country. So glad I chose to live here. To everyone who actually turned up and worked for their beliefs, from any side of politics, respect.
Hack, woke, Partisan, comrade
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
WoooowWOWOWOOOOOWOoooWOWOoWoooo
everything you said, particularly
congratulations friend
Omar Comin’ has said ‘Goodnight’.
So its goodnight from him
and its goodnight from me.
(The two Ronnies)
Dr Doolittle says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 1:31 am
Upnorth at 1.06 am
Glad to see you enjoying the Labor victory, particularly with the Qld bonus to Labor’s majority.
On a side issue, the PAP in Singapore is nothing like the Australian Labor Party. Much evidence to show that exists, but just focus on one key theme, which is ratificaof UN human rights treaties.
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Dr D you are most correct. I think you wil find most of ASEAN has not ratified the said treaties. Singapore for all its faults provides housing for all, a universal healthcare and a secret ballot – Wesminster Democracy in our own back yard. Night all.
“If the mainstream polls (which I think averaged about 52-52.5 for Labor) were a bit off, what then to make of SkyNews Sharri Markson’s ‘secret’ seat polling showing the Liberals were in with a real chance?
Someone sold her a dud there.”
I would never insinuate that she made it up as red meat to keep her audience from tuning out, oh except I just did.
The real internal polling was probably not herded as much as public polling and the party leaders not as surprised at this outcome (as was the case in 2019).
Dutton I think just didn’t know what to do about it except keep ploughing on in the same furrow while getting increasingly short tempered.
Albo has been “on offence” all over the place in seats where it turned out he had every reason to believe were in play, and the talk and betting around Bonner that squeezed out was the canary in the coalmine.
Bandt appeared to give up spruiking Macnamara and focus on the Qld seats and Richmond a while ago which seems to have been very much the right move but too late, and I suspect he was NOT polling his own allegedly safe seat and didn’t see that threat coming (because if he did he would have parked his arse there to defend, like Hastie in Canning).
Night all! What an awesome night this has been.
Sorry had to post. Night (morning) all.
Anthony Albanese has claimed a historic second election victory in a landslide result that has left the Coalition devastated after Peter Dutton and senior shadow cabinet members were turfed from parliament in a Liberal Party bloodbath.
After inflicting the worst defeat on the Coalition in the conservative party’s history, the Prime Minister said “the Australian people have voted for Australian values, for fairness, for aspiration and opportunity for all”.
Speaking at the Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL in Sydney, the same venue where he delivered his 2022 election victory speech in which he endorsed the Uluru Statement from the Heart and an Indigenous voice, Mr Albanese thanked “the people of Australia for the chance to continue to serve the best nation on earth”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/age-of-albanese-labor-landslide-sets-party-up-for-two-terms/news-story/684289456ac6387f8009aab4a208848f?amp
Based on who was ahead when I looked earlier, Senate make up:
ALP 30
Coalition 27
Greens 11
PHON 2
Lambie 1
Tyrrell 1
Pocock 1
Thorpe 1
Babet 1
Aus Voice 1
Speechless – this is the result the horrific Lib campaign deserved… but I’m still stunned they copped it.
Even better – PHON didn’t do anywhere near what was projected.
Nicholas
So youre saying MCM etc sacrificed themselves to make Labor better. LOL when’s the resurrection? Maybe they could have stayed in parliament and even added to their numbers if they made a more constructive contribution. When shit goes wrong you have to learn from it to get anywhere
Steve777 says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 12:37 am
Well Hack, Woke & Partisan @12:32, it looks like your optimism was justified. Great, enjoy the victory.
Dare we hope for a Hawke style ascendency, four consecutive wins?
Cheers Steve777. I think the challenge is to govern wisely. Albo is up to it, I’m sure. 4 terms…sounds great to me. 5!
Welcome Roberto!
You are going to be a good citizen of this country!
HWP….I always thought u to be too optomistic u have proven to be right….and the win might even have exceeded your expectations…..well done you for keeping the faith while others despaired……kudos
@jt1983 “Even better – PHON didn’t do anywhere near what was projected.”
Very worth celebrating.
Always put One Nation last.
The flirtation with One Nation had not at all paid off for the Coalition and that’s a very good thing.
With how close Goldstein may end up being, assuming Zoe Daniel holds on Tim Wilson will probably say he would have won if not for the preference swap turning off “his” voters, with some justification.
I see another 3 years of the ALP punching left has started on the night. Can’t wait to not be able to afford rent, while true believers get excited about the one person bringing that up losing his seat thanks to Liberal preferences going to Labor.
This is a historic victory and watching the spud eat shit was glorious, but people saying this is a repudiation of the Greens are wrong on the numbers, and failure to realise the political implications of that will bite from both sides. Stop blaming inadequate policy on those who won’t vote for it and start earning that support.
I just looked at my electorate of Swan again. The Liberals so far have won only one booth (51%). If you look at the state seat of South Perth, I think the federal ALP might have increased their vote over the state election.
As far as victories go Ive seen a few….seen alot of excruciating losses as well…..but Albo has bettered such Labor Heroes as Rudd, Gillard, Keating, Hawke, Whitlam……his victory stands above all those in my lifetime
Have AEC stopped counting?
Thanks Been There. Been here for for 28 years.
Upnorth at 1.41 am
Undoubtedly Singapore has some real achievements, particularly in health. It was the world leader in responding effectively to the Covid pandemic, especially given its total dependence upon global trade.
On the Qld results, there are some interesting contrasts in the pre-poll results, not always being better for the Tories.
E.g. in Longman, which is very close, with all pre-polls apparently reported, the swing to Labor in the pre-polls was 3.9% TPP, whereas only 2.5% on Saturday and 2.9% from postals.
That is in contrast to Dickson, where Sat swing to Ali France was 9.5%, pre-polls 7% and postals 4.3%.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-late-night-live.html
Reposting Kevin’s link for anyone interested in some late night Senate speculation.
Tldr – NSW numbers look suss and PHON likely to come back; SA and TAS results look as surprising as they initially appear. VIC #6 a cluster.
Arky at 1.55 am
Yes, re the Hanson vote, stuck at 6%. Bluey saw through that one much better than occasional polls.
Good riddance to the Greens blockers in the lower house.
Let’s hope it can be replicated in the Senate!
teh_drewski at 2.10 am
Thanks. Worth noting his comment re Tassie:
“Tasmania: Hard to believe the Liberals have managed to poll badly enough in my home state to put their second seat in doubt, simply astonishing. Earlier in the night I thought it was safe but now I’m not completely sure. There are 2 Labor 1 Liberal and 1 Green seats clear and then there is a 4-way race for two seats between, in order of possible primary position, Liberal, Labor, Lambie and One Nation. I think the Greens will drop back from their current 1.2 quotas but there is the possibility that even if in the lead the Liberals may end up being overtaken by both Labor and Lambie.”
I’ve heard the Nationals had run a great campaign in Bendigo and it REALLY shows bc even though Labor won in a landslide, Bendigo’s 2pp with has Labor leading Nations 50.7-49.3. Forrest 2pp should not be this close btw Labor and Liberals, this is how bad the night was for the Coalition. Surprisingly the Teal isn’t on 2pp.
Also be on the lookout for Flinders, the 2pp there is now btw Liberals and the Teal, with 102 votes separating them. It could be another potential Teal flip other than Bean and Bradfield. ALSO, Cowper’s changed, Caz is back in with a chance and she’s slightly ahead.
Hope Trump is watching. Dont f#^k with us you Orange clown. We wont stand for your BS