The Financial Review reports the latest Freshwater Strategy poll has the Coalition’s lead in from 52-48 to 51-49. Labor’s primary vote is unchanged at 31%, but the Coalition is down two to 39% and the Greens are up one to 14%. The exact figures are not yet provided, but we are told that Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is up one to minus 10% while Dutton’s is down four to minus 12%. (UPDATE: Albanese is up two on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 47%; Dutton is down one to 35% and up two to 46%.) Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 45-43 to 46-42.
Forty-two per cent now expect Labor to win the next election, up five (though only 7% expect a majority Labor government), with the Coalition down five to 45% (18% for a majority). Field work dates and sample size don’t appear to be featured in the online reports (UPDATE: 1051 and Thursday to Saturday, apparently), but the gaps will presumably be filled when the print edition is available. Polls in this series have typically been spaced four weeks apart, but this time it’s only been three.
Thanks for the new thread William. Sprocket and I were just reaching the same conclusion at the tail of the previous thread. The shift versus previous poll is similar to the shift in the YouGov poll in Labor’s favour, putting aside the differing starting points of each series.
It’s all starting to look rather 2019.
William on Freshwater
the poll of 1051 voters, taken from Thursday to Saturday
No mention of PHoN, Indie/Teal or Trumpet of Palmer
I don’t know whether it is true or not but…
It was said shortly after WWll,
“It only takes three committed sociopaths to overthrow a democracy”
There is a saying: One needs a drop of poison to poison a whole glass of milk.
Mostly Interested:
Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 6:44 pm
His movies included.
___________________________________________________
The Mexican president is quite savvy by imposing tariffs on soybeans & dairy products on the US states that voted for the GOP in 2020:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiuu3u4jRBQ&t=178s
Long time no see Asha.
“Dutton coming off the boil as election nears”
Given that one of the few policies of the Coalition is that they will give Australia exactly what Trump is giving America, it’s not surprising.
Long or short campaign? How much latitude does he have? What if the GG is overseas? Can he or she just be rung up?
Asha @ #2 Sunday, March 16th, 2025 – 8:41 pm
How so?
Labor 31, Green 14, Coalition 39, Someone Else 16.
I get Labor 2PP = 31+12+0+8 = 51.
That’s splitting Someone Else 50-50. This includes Teals, RWNJs and local independents and single issue groups, so a bit a a guess.
Socrates @ #935 Sunday, March 16th, 2025 – 8:20 pm
Satellites are great if you can afford to keep launching them – they need replacing every half dozen years or so. Plus, landing a squad of SAS is awkward from a satellite as is photographing the underside of a naval vessel from space.
VLS – meh – ok if you can get them. Pretty good if you want to shoot and scoot.
At the end of the day, it’s all about stealth and always has been for subs.
The more stealth, the greater threat you provide.
Electric boats are stealthier than SSNs and therefore are a greater threat to surface combatants.
That’s pretty important for an island nation.
SSNs main threat is their nukes. But they are a bluff and won’t get used and haven’t been used since Nagasaki.
Plus, WE DONT HAVE NUKES.
If you need stealth get an SSK.
Don’t get an F35 – some untrustworthy bastard will shut you down with a back door attack.
And I’ve written a few backdoors in my time. Easy to implement, hard to spot.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
#Freshwater ALP 31 L-NP 39 Green 14 others 16
2PP by unstated method 51-49 to L-NP (-1)
My 2022 prefs conversion off published primaries 50.4 to ALP (ALP +1.3)
Poor Dutts, if only he hadn’t been bereft of any coherent policies. At the heart of it is that he’s bone lazy, thinking he’d float into the Lodge on a wing and a prayer.
Well, the trends in most polls seem to be turning toward Labor lately, this one included. That is heartening.
Looking forward to seeing Nadia88 assert some more baked in stuff.
Trump’s punk increasingly on the nose with southern hemisphere Canadians?
Boerwar @ #15 Sunday, March 16th, 2025 – 9:01 pm
I haven’t seen nadia since the WA election.
Worth a look.
Climate-driven insurance premium increases (along with climate-related upgrade costs to existing houses) are helping to trash some housing markets in the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM4keUzOP8A
I think Labor’s position will pick up a little more pre-election going by the train smash in the US. Voters prefer stability rather than the chaos of Trump & his lackeys.
Nadia is off baking a cake with L’wit at a CWA competition in Esk.
I used to think Labor might’ve been risking their chance at winning the election if they put it in May, but assuming that the trend of recovery in the polls will continue for Labor, then it seems like things are looking up for them.
March has been a pretty optimistic month for Labor so far, but I don’t think they should be complacent about it, I wonder how they can seize on this opportunity to strengthen their position, especially during the budget.
@Confessionssays: Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 9:05 pm
Doesn’t Nadia live in QLD? Hopefully she’s doing well, especially since Cyclone Alfred recently did hit Brissy.
The Age 16/03
The Victorian government covered up rampant and ongoing CFMEU-linked organised crime infiltration and corruption on its multibillion-dollar Big Build infrastructure scheme by failing to ensure scrutiny of “senior bureaucrats and ministerial offices”, according to the top investigator appointed to clean up the construction sector.
_____________________
They are good at covering up things.
Confessions:
A government that seemed to be facing an electoral defeat now looking like they will cling onto power, thanks to the not-very-well-liked PM regaining their fire just in time for the campaign and a series of unforced errors from an uninspiring opposition leader who people are very wary about giving the top job.
It’s hardly a like-for-like comparison – every election is unique – but it does feel similar.
TM – might pay to read the article and report again. Failing to ensure scrutiny is a different animal to covering something up?
Chump wipes out 7 agencies at once… trying to dumb America down to his level… he has a loooong way to go
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 9:01 pm
Looking forward to seeing Nadia88 assert some more baked in stuff.
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I think her “baked in” numbers were 31-29.
Bludgertrack still has it firmly in that area (ie: 30.7%), and this ALP primary is not much different.
I wouldn’t be getting too excited Boerwar about Freshwater polling, given it shows absolutely no movement towards your lot. 31 three weeks ago, 31 today. Big increase isn’t it?
Having said that, where is nadia88. She’s usually around for a poll.
In her absence the polls appear to have tightened somewhat or at least some big noters on this site seem to think the ALP is now in with a chance.
nadia – come back.
More doom casting required please.
If Trump goes pear-shaped over the next three months Dutton will be left high and dry.
Oh yes, I forgot about that. Would definitely explain her absence.
Asha:
I see. Yes, that’s a reasonable conclusion.
Timbo
Thanks and agree with that too.
Regarding landing SAS etc, I have found quite odd the suggestions of some defenders of AUKUS Pillar One that if AUKUS SSNs falls over, Australia then acquiring B21 stealth bombers will somehow replace them?? Obviously they don’t do the same job.
My uncle served on some recon missions by RAN Oberons. That goes way back to the Vietnam war. He was a clearance diver.
The latest French SSN has an electric drive rather than geared turbines which does make it very quiet al low speed.
The Liberal Party does have some policies of course.
They’re going to break up global insurance companies.
They aren’t going to break up global insurance companies.
They’re going to ban working from home.
They’re going to allow working from home.
They’re going to break up supermarkets.
Of course they’re not going to break up supermarkets.
That’s 6. How many more do you need.
Throw in a nuclear program that will never be built and a submarine show that may also never be built and is increasingly looking like it shouldn’t.
I’m nearly out of fingers.
FWIW, I expect the government to continue publicly supporting AUKUS and the submarine deal right up until the election. To do otherwise would invite Dutton to loudly claim that Labor is leaving Oz defenceless blah blah.
However, after the election (assuming a Labor majority/minority government) is a different matter. Trump has provided and will continue to provide plenty of reasons to reassess the value of AUKUS to Australia. Don’t expect the government to move overnight but I expect change will occur after a full consideration of realistic alternatives.
For those interested in rowing.. amazing annual event in Amsterdam on the Amstel.. river gets closed for a mega rowing regatta.. this year is 53 rd event..
YouTube of 2022..
https://youtu.be/FUW7DtJRkVw
So what polls are we expecting in the coming week?
Another Morgan and YouGov with an Essential?
”… the poll of 1051 voters…”
Margin of error is about 3.1%.
“ScromoIIsays:
Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 9:30 pm
So what polls are we expecting in the coming week?
Another Morgan and YouGov with an Essential?”
A Resolve…..which will almost certainly push the aggregates further towards Labor given the last poll was clearly a massive outlier
Citizen
The trouble is if Marles and Albo are reelected and keep stalling any change to AUKUS it will be too late to get new subs before the Collins class have aged beyond their safe operational limit.
So then we will either send out RAN crews in unsafe conditions or lose a capability people have worked on for decades.
Marles and Albo have already stalled for three years now.
We should start talking to the French about subs. We had a deal, maybe we can get back in. After the election of course.
Ven,
Still sticking with a Coalition majority win?
Spencesays:
Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 9:13 pm
TM – might pay to read the article and report again. Failing to ensure scrutiny is a different animal to covering something up?
_____________________
Allan’s inquiry was pissweak.
Deliberately so.
That’s covering up in anyone’s book.
Labors big build is just one big fucking mess.
was nadia bullied away by the usual suspects? I hope not.
Diogenessays:
Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 8:49 pm
What an old fashion quaint activity, “rung up”.
“davesays:
Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 9:41 pm
was nadia bullied away by the usual suspects? I hope not.”
Or he/she/they were “bullied” away by a rising realisation? I hope so! 🙂
Re Nadia and her absence. Speaking from experience, I can tell you at least here on the Gold Coast there has been NBN issues in certain areas. We here in part of Burleigh Waters lost NBN for three days from Tuesday last until early Saturday morning – and that was after power was restored here very late Sunday night following T.C. Alfred. Nadia may well be still having power/NBN issues in her local area as well. Just today we found out that locally just around the corner from my address there are still people without NBN.
nath,
Always with the unsubstantiated allegations.
No, no one has ‘bullied’ nadia88 away. Yes, she was in the cyclone zone. Hmm, maybe that might have something to do with it, eh?
Looks like my opinion is coming true minority government I kept saying to the people that fought that there was gonna be a liberal majority and set it always Swings Back to the incumbent we’ve seen it in the Queensland election and now the problem Peter is that it can’t go to the safe areas I do wonder if left the ball is correct that someone in the coalition camps telling the people on Sky News and the Australian to keep it down because they’re expecting to to lose this term
I think only right-wingers get that upset about Andrews/Allan and the CFMEU. While there has been some whinging about SRL, I don’t see any complaints from city people about the level crossings and the new roads.
And of course these right-wingers will tell you they, their pollies and the very same CEOs of the construction firms deserve all their inflated salaries.
Bludgeoned Westin at 9.09 pm, Asha at 9.12 pm
The comparison is not with 2019 (when polling under-sampled the drongo vote and the mullet vote) but with 1998, when Howard survived despite substantial unpopularity.
Beazley had a poor record as Labor leader but he had more coherence and vision than Dutton, a drone-like impersonation of Abbott minus the stunts.
The election is now scheduled most likely for 17 May, two months away. Dr Bonham now has the score at a tie with his generous bonus preference offer to LNP from Hanson franchise.
Dutton has about one and a quarter policies, unappealing to professional women in the Teal seats especially. It will be hard for him to hide this on 27 March, before Parliament rises.
Nadia88 will be back for the next Newspoll if not before. She has not expected Dutton to win and there is very little chance of that changing.
Socrates @ #37 Sunday, March 16th, 2025 – 9:34 pm
And this is the crux of our problem. Albo only acts when he is in “energizer bunny” mode – i.e. during a campaign. He is a good campaigner, but a crap prime minister.
What we need to do is put the government – whether Labor or COALition – in “perpetual campaign” mode – i.e. elect a cross bench backbone that will only support the government as long as it actually does stuff, rather than just promise to do stuff if they get re-elected.
When the government falls back into sleepy “business as usual” mode – which they all do – the cross bench can withdraw support. At any time.
You know it makes sense.
Socrates
“My uncle served on some recon missions by RAN Oberons. That goes way back to the Vietnam war. He was a clearance diver.”
Nothing but respect for those guys. Some thought them crazy, and to a degree they have to be!
I had some interactions with them. My first was when I was a 17yo skimmer on a destroyer. My PO at the time advised giving them a wide birth – and we did. Built like proverbials, they were all hard, tough individuals, and a bit grumpy.
I had more interactions with them later when I went to boats. On the boats they were far more easy going with submariners, far less intimidating, and were some on the nicest blokes you could meet. Incredibly fit and thorough gentlemen. Great memories.
“The latest French SSN has an electric drive rather than geared turbines which does make it very quiet al low speed.”
Yes, I’ve read that too. Still running a reactor though 🙂