Antony Green has published a pendulum display of post-redistribution seat margins for the federal election along with some explanation of what this entails. He did so exactly as I was finalising my own parallel effort, which I present here in the shape of a mock-up of the entry page for the federal election guide I’m hoping to publish around mid-January (a Western Australian election guide will precede it by a couple of weeks).
The margins shown are simply those from the 2022 election where no redistribution has been conducted, but the redistributions for New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory require a process of distributing the votes from 2022 across the redrawn electorates. The Northern Territory redistribution is still in the public consultation phase, but I have taken a punt on the proposed boundaries (in this case simply a matter of drawing the line between Solomon and Lingiari) being adopted as they seem impossible to argue with, and it appears Antony Green has reached the same conclusion.
I believe the redistribution calculation methods used by Antony and me are identical with respect to how they handle ordinary votes, (i.e. those cast on election day or at pre-poll voting centres), but we have presumably adopted different methods to deal with the difficult question of “non-static” vote types, such as postals, which are published in aggregate for the whole electorate with no indication of geographic variation. I haven’t crunched the numbers too thoroughly, but the biggest anomaly I can see is that we have landed 0.5% apart in the substantially redrawn seat of Chisholm. We are in agreement that the margin in Deakin is a tiny 0.02%, but where he has it in favour of the Liberals, I make the seat to be notionally Labor.
Where we substantially differ is in seats where an independent is part of the equation. Calculations here are necessarily speculative, as independents will not have been on the ballot paper in newly added areas (where transfers have been conducted between teal seats, this can be dealt with by treating them as a collective). Antony has a method involving comparison of House and Senate vote shares which he says is “imperfect, but so are all alternatives”. The imperfection of my method, which gives independents no primary votes from newly added areas and allocates only the preference flows they might have expected from the other candidates, is that it’s very harsh on the independents, a fact most apparent with respect to Kooyong, where my 0.1% margin for Monique Ryan compares with Antony’s 2.2%.
Complete accountings of my redistribution calculations can be observed through the following links, for New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Northern Territory.
Polling and electoral developments of note:
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll had the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 a week before, from primary votes of Labor 28% (down two, their worst result of the term), Coalition 38% (down half), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The previous election two-party measure was a dead heat, unchanged on last week.
• The Australian reported last Saturday that a EMRS poll covering all five seats in Tasmania pointed to a status quo result of two Labor, two Liberal and one independent. In Labor’s precarious seat of Lyons, a generic party-based question has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 31%, the Greens on 11% and Jacqui Lambie Network 4%, while a separate question specifying candidates had 40% for Labor’s Rebecca White, 31% for Liberal candidate Susie Bowers and 9% for the Greens. The Liberals were well ahead in Braddon, leading 44% to 27% on the primary vote with the Greens on 9% and JLN on 7%. In Franklin the results were Labor 36%, Liberal 35% and Greens 11%, suggesting Labor would survive a substantial swing.
• Liberal MP Paul Fletcher announced this week that he will not recontest his seat of Bradfield. Fletcher retained the seat by 4.2% in 2022 in the face of a challenge from teal independent Nicolette Boele, who will run again at the coming election. His announcement comes shortly after teal independent MP Kylea Tink said she would not contest the seat following the abolition of her existing seat of North Sydney, much of whose territory will be transferred to Bradfield. The Sydney Morning Herald reports on two contenders to succeed Fletcher as Liberal candidate: Gisele Kapterian, an international trade lawyer and former staffer to Julie Bishop who shares Fletcher’s moderate factional alignment, and Penny George, director of corporate affairs at AstraZeneca and wife of state upper house member Scott Farlow. Kapterian was endorsed last year as the candidate for North Sydney, but had the rug pulled from under her with the seat’s abolition.
• Liberal MP Ian Goodenough, who lost preselection in his northern Perth suburbs seat of Moore to former Stirling MP Vince Connelly, has surprised nobody by announcing he will seek re-election as an independent. Connelly was the member for Stirling, part of which is now the southern end of Moore, from 2019 until its abolition in 2022. Goodenough claims to have been told that “opportunities might arise that would be of benefit” if he didn’t run.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports former Senator Joanna Lindgren is “poised” to be preselected as the LNP’s candidate for the Ipswich region seat of Blair, held for Labor by Shayne Neumann on a margin of 5.2%. Lindgren served in the Senate for a year after filling a casual vacancy but failed to win re-election at the 2016 double dissolution. Trevor Evans, who lost Brisbane to the Greens in 2022, is expected to again be chosen as the party’s candidate for the seat at a preselection to be held today, though he faces an opponent in Fiona Ward, a past federal and state candidate and regular preselection aspirant. Two contenders are named for the party’s preselection for Lilley, held for Labor by Annika Wells on a 10.5% margin: Kimberley Washington, a former staffer to LNP-turned-independent Senator Gerard Rennick, and Dylan Conway, an army veteran and founder of a mental health charity.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Clive Palmer has launched a High Court bid to overrule a section of the Electoral Act that disallowed him from re-registering his United Australia Party for the next election after his voluntary deregistration of it in September 2022. The report quotes electoral law expert Graeme Orr saying the section exists to prevent newly deregistered parties having their names poached and did not reckon seeking to de-register and re-register, the “obvious reason” for which was to avoid having to make financial disclosures.
• The Victorian state by-election for Prahran will be held on February 8, with the ballot paper draw to be held on January 17. Tony Lupton, who held the seat for Labor from 2002 to 2010, has announced he will run as an independent, calling his former party’s decision to forfeit the contest “cowardly”. The Liberals will choose their candidate in a preselection ballot today.
• South Australia’s state redistribution has been finalised. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has taken a much closer look than I have, and concludes that the already minimal changes from the proposal have become even more conservative in the final determination. One change is that the seat of Frome will become Ngadjuri, owing to concerns raised that the seat’s namesake had been involved in a retribution attack on an Aboriginal encampment.
• Poll Bludger regular Adrian Beaumont offers an overview of results for last month’s US presidential and congressional elections with a more optimistic take for Democrats than most commentators, especially their prospects at the November 2026 midterm elections.
Good morning everyone
I had forgotten about the cost blowout on the NBN. Something else the Conalition told the electorate with a straight face that they could build cheaper and quicker than Labor. Thanks, frednk. 🙂
Good morning, Bean. 🙂
First paragraph, last sentence – precede rather than proceed?
Yep.
As expected, Graham Redfearn has done a thorough analysis of the Conalition’s Nuclear Costings:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/13/australia-nuclear-power-costings-frontier-economics-plan-peter-dutton-coalition-policy
There’s more. A lot more. 🙂
What opportunities I wonder?
Tristan Edis, director of Green Energy markets, says …….
_____________________
Always back self interest, at least you know it’s trying.
There is a lot of money to be made.
Confessions: That Goodenough statement should be enough for an ICAC referral.
A big road trip today.
Early Christmas today due to the difficulties in getting the whole family together as kids get older.
Has happened before and i don’t mind it. Gets you organised early whilst everyone else is losing their shit over the next 2 weeks.
Christmas Day itself will be nice and chilled.
Then Boxing Day with my partners family.
Confessions @ #7 Saturday, December 14th, 2024 – 7:00 am
Trump-like opportunities, if the Coalition win the next election, like Ambassador to Greece? 😐
How it started…
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/csl-tumbles-as-investors-fear-rfk-jr-s-vaccine-plans-20241118-p5krft
How it’s going…
Safe travels taylormade.
Got much the same thing happening next week……you never know I might pass you on a walking track down Anglesea way late jan.down that way with family.
The Turkey Files
OK, so Trump has backtracked on lowering grocery prices. It turns out he was lying all along.
Gobble. Gobble. Gobble.
Dutton is planning to make energy more expensive for Australians.
Gobble.Gobble.Gobble.
Trump. Gina. Dutton.
Join the dots.
Techne UK: 1634 surveyed | 11–12 Dec
REFORM UK RISES, LABOUR & CONSERVATIVES STEADY
Lab: 27% (=)
Cons: 25% (=)
Reform: 22% (+1)
LD: 11% (-1)
Greens: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Others: 6% (=)
#weatheronPB
A shallow grey sky,
greets me with her damp embrace.
A friend who won’t leave.
Confessions @ #12 Saturday, December 14th, 2024 – 7:28 am
And do you know what the motivation for all this Anti Vaccine energy is? I just read the article (which I will make free for others to read)…Survival of the Fittest! 😯
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/13/health/aaron-siri-rfk-jr-vaccines.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hE4.SRDh.5RBdYZ5HBuiF&smid=url-share
These people are the sort of certifiably insane people who survive and thrive. I’ve met them. Somehow they manage to get through university and then away they go!
C@t ”I had forgotten about the cost blowout on the NBN”
I think we were supposed to…
The frontier effort can be criticized at so many levels:
They have concluded it is cheaper to produce less electricity, will wonders never cease.
They couldn’t even get the 2023 inflation rate right.
They assumed a party that can’t even build car park at a railway station can build 7 nuclear reactors cheaper and faster than has been done in any other western country.
They assumed we can keep coal fired stations all ready past there use by date running without additional costs.
There is a plus, we now know where the 60 year reactor life came from. The oldest reactor running is 55 years old ( in Switzerland apparently), there are apparently plans to keep it running fur another 5 .
According to the report the Liberals got the frontier report for free. The Liberal did not get value for money.
Morning all. Yesterday’s Dutton nuclear policy costing launch has been panned by just about everyone who knows anything about energy economics in Australia. They proved it was rubbish. This was well covered in most major online media including ABC, SMH/Age, Guardian, SaturdayPaper etc.
So I thought out of curiosity, where do most people get their news? I then looked up the following Australian news websites:
News.com.au https://www.news.com.au/
Dailymail.com.au https://www.dailymail.co.uk/auhome/index.html
9news.com.au https://www.9news.com.au/
The result? Crickets. Its bad for the Liberals, so the story simply doesn’t appear. On 9News.com.au it pops up if you scroll a LONG way down the page.
This is what Labor is really up against – the RW disinformation machine. They howl with rage if Albo plays tennis, and say nothing when Dutton talks nonsense.
Nuclear, what nuclear ?
I suspect any reference to nuclear at a May 17 election will be a non event as “isodope” and “ted the fuel” rod were advised to “blurt” out their costings before Christmas and the whole shemozzle will have had a half life before the holidays are finished.
The “dead tree” media and their “modern day” affiliates seem intent on “demonizing” Albanese despite having nothing and will target maximum
confusion to assure themselves that their best interests are to the fore.
The array of independents, including the Greens and Teals will I believe have a greater “weighted interest” in the lower half after the next election whenever it occurs.
Those of us interested in these matters are just as “unknowing” about the independents success at the next election and the the results may well be as surprising as 2022.
Nothing suggests otherwise.
In many respects the throngs of the “great unwashed” of political disinterested will get on with Christmas and complete their individually “TaylorMade”road trips and watch some cricket.
I did find a prominent mention of the Dutton nuclear costing farce on 7 news. See
https://7news.com.au/politics/federal-politics/liberals-pledge-cheaper-power-bills-with-330b-nuclear-plan-c-17068263
This one is almost fact free. It presents Dutton’s statement and all the great news from the Frontier Economics report. Then it reports Chris Bowen’s response. But there is no independent or expert commentary to tell which is true, other than a reference to AEMO costings right at the bottom. But those could be dismissed as government generated.
So its either disinformation or no information in the RW news delusionverse.
9 Entertainment!!!
They are running the headline that the current IPA leader has taken the party from a basket case to winning government
Well, they would say that wouldn’t they – the 4th Estate unanswerable
So if the Tories were a basket case why did 9 Entertainment promote a vote for them at the last State election?
And otherwise seek to boost their chances with headlines that Victoria was headed for a hung parliament (no doubt to reinforce vote Labor get Greens)?
Plus give us headlines that the Premier would lose his seat?
Further, when the IPA figure was out of parliament, 9 Entertainment gave him open access to column space as the presumptive leader not in the parliament
Simply, after losing his seat, he was then returned with a very narrow margin (so still vulnerable especially to a Teal candidate from the numbers that wiped the Council elections in that area)
And what has the IPA operative done except whinge?
And carry on about debt, where the NET debt has reduced and slated to continue to reduce, assets currently at $413 Billion, so government equity at $240 Billion
That debt is invested into the viability which is Victoria including the infrastructure works we see and will soon get the advantage of using (remember the carry on re Eastlink now an established and valuable transport link from Richmond to Portsea)
Then there are the investments into health including hospitals and staff, into education with school upgrades, pay rises for Nurses, Aged Care workers, police etc etc
And in terms of the Tories remaining a basket case, as NOW acknowledged by 9 Entertainment, given the headlines re Court cases with Cormack and now the IPA versus the Religious Right, lost by the IPA, I would put that they indeed remain a basket case, carping from the sidelines but offering nothing but instability including for the citizens of the State
And what does Guy, who remains in the parliament remember, think of all this?
And this government is not yet half way thru yet another landslide result
Granted the time to criticise the roads and rail spends is during the planning and construction phases because once they are operational their value to community leaves no avenue for attack
The Opposition knows its nuclear “plans” are crap. They are counting on being given cover by the mainstream media.
Pro-Liberal posters are conspicuous by their absence today. Its as though they are all paid staff at Menzies House and they are on holidays now? 😐
Have a good day all.
One more thing – thanks for the work on the new electoral pendulum in the lead-in article William. It looks good.
The West Australian has not jumped on board the Dutton nuclear express.
His announcement yesterday is relegated to page 14 under the heading “A negative reaction” with a sub head “Peter Dutton’s much-trumpeted nuclear plans have already hit problems.”
Ouch.
Yeah, it’s certifiably insane.
WA Senator Michaelia Cash will lead the Coalition in the Senate after South Australian Liberal Simon Birmingham announced he was retiring at the next election.
The Liberal senator — who served as Attorney General under Scott Morrison — was unopposed as the party’s candidate, with South Australian Senator Anne Ruston also elected unopposed as deputy opposition leader in the Senate.
Senator Cash’s new title comes ahead of the next Federal election, which must be called by May 2025, and makes her the first female Coalition senate leader. “It is an absolute privilege and honour to have been elected by my colleagues to be their Leader in the Senate,’’ she said. “I look forward to working with my Coalition colleagues to continue to hold the terrible Albanese Government to account in the Senate.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/wa-liberal-michaelia-cash-elected-to-replace-simon-birmingham-as-partys-federal-senate-leader-c-17075024
What’s the interest paid on debt of $185 billion as that’s where it’s headed.
Mind you will be a lot more as labors state gov cost overruns will ramp up as tunnels to nowhere continue.Uncle fester is increasing tax everywhere in Victoria adding to inflation and no interest rate cuts.Own goal.
Check out the SA gov state debt tunnels coming there as well watch that as it is already blowing out.
Tennis Albo loves tunnels also he has dug one for himself and his fed labor government.
The public’s energy bills under labor increased massively any debate on energy damaging for fed labor.
Steve777 @ #24 Saturday, December 14th, 2024 – 8:28 am
Labor has a fantastic opportunity to highlight exactly how much less Australian fossil fuel their own policies will result in burning (both onshore and offshore) as opposed to those of the COALition, and also how much less money in political donations Labor will receive from fossil fuel companies than the COALition.
Guess why they won’t do either of those.
Chinese money given to the Duke of York is being investigated by the security services, The UK Telegraph can disclose. Prince Andrew’s business venture is understood to have received money from Chinese donors with links to an alleged Communist party spy. The disclosure comes after it emerged on Thursday that the alleged spy, described as a “close confidant” of the Duke in court documents, had been banned from the UK on national security grounds.
In his first comments on the scandal on Friday night, the Duke insisted that he “ceased all contact” with the alleged spy after concerns were raised, with “nothing of a sensitive nature ever discussed”.
Prince Andrew during a visit by Xi Jinping and his wife, Madame Peng Liyuan, at Imperial College London in 2015. However, the case raises serious questions for the Duke over how he funds a lavish lifestyle that includes the upkeep on Royal Lodge, his 30-room home at Windsor, and his own private security.
The Telegraph can disclose that Buckingham Palace has no way of scrutinising the Duke’s finances, including the money used for the upkeep of Royal Lodge, which is owned by the Crown Estate. Sources said the palace had “no power, authority or legal right” to do so and that all palace officials could do was seek assurances that the Duke’s money was “legitimately earned”. It can also be revealed that the King was made aware of the MI5 investigation into his brother and his links to the alleged Chinese agent before the bombshell judgment which exposed their friendship. The latest scandal to beset the Duke is likely to have contributed to the King’s decision earlier in the year to cut his brother off from all funding.
Sorry about the lateness. I posted the Dawn Patrol on the now obsolete thread.
______________________
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
The Coalition is playing voters for mugs once again with its nuclear costings, declares Laura Tingle who says there is something spooking similar going on with Dutton.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-14/politics-dutton-release-nuclear-costings/104723416
Brett Worthington writes that the decision to seek to bury the policy announcement at the end of a week so late in the year offers an insight into the confidence the party has in the signature policy it will take to the next federal election. He also says the Coalition is doing little more than treating voters like mugs, assuming they’ll be more interested in style over substance.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-13/peter-dutton-cunning-showmanship-331-billion-nuclear-plan/104722496
The Coalition claims its nuclear policy is ‘visionary’ – but it needs to stand up to scrutiny, writes Karen Middleton. She says Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan is now tied to his own credibility, and the Liberal leader is banking on not having to explain the discrepancies in detail.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/13/the-coalition-claims-its-nuclear-policy-is-visionary-but-it-needs-to-stand-up-to-scrutiny
Nick O’Malley goes to the heart of Dutton’s nuclear plan. He says Dutton predicts that Australia will need far less electricity in 2050 than the government is planning for, and he assumes it can save money by not building unnecessary power generation, storage and transmission infrastructure.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-very-big-assumption-peter-dutton-s-nuclear-plan-makes-20241213-p5ky5s.html
And Mike Foley and Paul Sakkal say that millions fewer Australians would drive electric cars or have rooftop solar under Dutton’s vision. They also say that Dutton’s plan would use taxpayers’ money to fund the construction costs of nuclear plants, while the government’s plan relies on private investment to be repaid by electricity customers via their bills.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-reveals-nuclear-energy-costs-and-a-crucial-election-battleground-20241213-p5ky4f.html
Never mind the fact the Coalition’s nuclear proposal is a fantasy – it doesn’t even claim to reduce power bills, argues Adam Morton. “Let’s not waste time with niceties: the Coalition’s nuclear plan is a fantasy. The vision laid out on Friday by a quartet of opposition frontbenchers is not going to eventuate, regardless of the result of the next election”, he says. The big question for political and media debate over the next six months: whether it will grapple with this reality, or if the nuclear fantasy will be too much to resist.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/14/never-mind-the-fact-the-coalitions-nuclear-proposal-is-a-fantasy-it-doesnt-even-claim-to-reduce-power-bills
Energy generators have poked holes in Dutton’s nuclear plan as questions over its costings pile up, writes Graham Readfearn.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/14/energy-generators-poke-holes-in-duttons-nuclear-plan-as-questions-over-costings-pile-up
Angela Macdonald-Smith says Dutton’s nuclear costings are underpinned by ‘distorted numbers’. She lays out four main issues.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/dutton-s-nuclear-costings-underpinned-by-distorted-numbers-20241213-p5ky5r
Peter Dutton has acknowledged his timeline for building seven nuclear power stations may be too ambitious, conceding it would require bipartisan support, as the Coalition’s plan was criticised for underestimating energy demand and the number of electric vehicles on the road by 2050, writes Phil Coorey. He says the opposition leader made the concession as the Coalition’s costings for its nuclear power plants were also attacked for extending the life of coal-fired power, increasing short-term grid instability, and lacking detail about any short-term impact on electricity bills.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-calls-for-bipartisan-support-as-nuke-policy-comes-under-fire-20241213-p5ky49
Peter Pan Dutton’s nuclear Neverland adventure a fantastical media snow job, writes Michael West.
https://michaelwest.com.au/peter-pan-duttons-nuclear-neverland-adventure-a-fantastical-media-snowjob/
Australia’s fractious debate about how to achieve its energy transition ambitions in its electricity sector has become even more muddled by the release of the costings of the Coalition’s nuclear plan. And that’s no help to households and businesses, writes Angela Macdonald-Smith who despairs that any hope of a rational debate about nuclear power is gone.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/any-hope-of-a-rational-debate-about-nuclear-power-is-gone-20241213-p5ky5t
The Coalition reveals the cost of its nuclear power plan – but the devil is in the missing detail, writes researcher Thomas Longden. Clearly, the debate has a long way to run before voters make their choice at the ballot box next year. Let’s hope by that time, we have the information we need, he says.
https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-reveals-the-cost-of-its-nuclear-power-plan-but-the-devil-is-in-the-missing-detail-245576
The Climate Council has come out to describe four ways Dutton is cooking the books on nuclear power.
https://theaimn.com/less-power-more-climate-pollution-four-ways-dutton-is-cooking-the-books-on-nuclear/
The SMH editorial says electors are none the wiser. The modelling did not go to pricing and Dutton failed to provide a dollar and cents figure of how going nuclear will make power cheaper for each consumer. It concludes with, “The choice facing Australians is no joke. Our concerns with the Coalition plan stem not so much from environmental or safety issues, but the costs and timeline, coal’s continued use, and the perception that Dutton has made his signature proposal feel very political, rather than an energy policy designed for the right reasons.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-unveils-his-nuclear-power-policy-but-questions-remain-20241213-p5ky61.html
The Canberra Times’ editorial says, “The problem now for Australia is that what ought to be a rational discussion about engineering and economics is fraught with politics. Mr Dutton has helped that unhelpful development. But, make no mistake, his arguments for nuclear may resonate with many voters, particularly since so many other countries are seeing it as viable. Labor must challenge the argument with cold figures to convince an electorate which may need some convincing.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8846134/australias-path-to-net-zero-choice-at-the-polls/?cs=27763
Paul Bongiorno tells us about Murdoch, Dutton and the campaign against Albanese. A good read.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2024/12/14/murdoch-dutton-and-the-campaign-against-albanese
Peter Dutton will ‘stare down’ nuclear scare campaigns and seek an election mandate to compel sceptical premiers and business chiefs into fast-tracking his plan to build seven nuclear power plants, writes cheerleader Geoff Chambers. (I can’t find any analysis of the announcement’s details in he Australian today, Strange, that!)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation%2Fpolitics%2Fdefiant-peter-dutton-ready-for-nuclear-scare-campaign-from-labor%2Fnews-story%2F8eefa810217d2ce034be589b1914da19?amp
As the Coalition finally releases its long-delayed nuclear costings, its chosen economic modeller, Danny Price, takes aim at Labor’s numbers. Mike Seccombe backgrounds the rather controversial consultant.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/12/14/coalitions-economic-modeller-goes-nuclear-energy-transition-costings
Australia will soon seal an agreement with a group of Western nations to end public subsidies for fossil fuel export projects, drying up a key source of finance for new oil, gas and coal fields, reports Royce Kurmelovs.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2024/12/14/australias-clean-energy-transition-partnership-huge-win-climate
Another day, another barking lie from Dutton and his brazen band of disinformation dealers, now regularly guest starring on the public broadcaster. There is no stopping the runaway train of invention that is the Murdoch media, at least not without government intervention — and there appears to be no appetite within the Labor Party to go down that road again, writes Michelle Pini.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/abc-propels-duttons-disinformation-dealers,19256
Government spending is keeping Australia out of recession, just as last week’s feeble GDP numbers tallied seven consecutive quarters of negative growth. Michael Pascoe reports on the moaning business lobby with Jim Chalmers seeming to get the blame for there having been no recession.
https://johnmenadue.com/damned-if-you-do-jim-chalmers-cops-the-blame-for-no-recession/
Fallout from the war in Gaza has created a deepening rift in relations between Australia and Israel. The hostilities are political and personal, writes Matthew Knott who takes us inside the fiery meeting that would define the government’s relationship with Israel
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inside-the-fiery-meeting-that-would-define-the-government-s-relationship-with-israel-20241209-p5kwu7.html
The opposition has seized upon the firebombing of a Melbourne synagogue to claim that the government is contributing to rising anti-Semitism in Australia, writes Karen Barlow about the politicising the Melbourne synagogue attack.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/12/14/politicising-the-melbourne-synagogue-attack
The wagons are circling, but John Pesutto is ready for a last stand, declares The Age. It says Pesutto is two years into his job and has achieved what to many appeared is a mission improbable – taking the political basket case also known as the Victorian Liberal Party and turning it into something that resembles a viable government-in-waiting. But for some of his colleagues, a third year with Pesutto as leader is untenable after his missteps exposed the inner workings of their party room to the fierce judgments of Justice David O’Callaghan.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-wagons-are-circling-but-john-pesutto-is-ready-for-a-last-stand-20241213-p5ky9s.html
The Age says former tennis ace Sam Groth has quit the state opposition’s frontbench, citing John Pesutto’s refusal to stand down as state Liberal Party leader in the wake of the damning Federal Court judgment against him. Pesutto was blindsided by the decision, which Groth informed him of minutes before posting a resignation statement on social media late on Friday afternoon. Some of Groth’s closest parliamentary colleagues were also unaware of his intention to quit before it was publicly announced.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/sam-groth-calls-game-set-match-on-pesutto-leadership-20241213-p5kyab.html
“The first thing we’ll do is sack those 36000 public servants in Canberra”, said David Littleproud, leader of Australia’s National Party. Paddy Gourley is concerned about the Australian Public Service and the perils of Trumpism.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-australian-public-service-and-the-perils-of-trumpism/
In an important case argued this week, the High Court is reconsidering whether the use of secret evidence in court proceedings is constitutional, explains Kieran Pender. Interesting.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2024/12/14/the-high-court-challenge-using-secret-evidence-trials
Prime Minister Albanese needs to take back control of interest rates and stop letting the Reserve Bank dictate how to run the economy, writes Klaas Woldring.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/government-should-stop-letting-reserve-bank-govern-australia,19261
The ageing Collins-class submarines have been added to a Defence Department watch list for reliability and maintenance woes, raising fresh doubts about the navy’s ability to conduct undersea operations. Andrew Tillett reports that just weeks after revelations five of the six submarines were out of action, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy added the submarines to Defence’s product of concern list, triggering an urgent scramble to come up with a remediation plan.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/collins-class-submarines-listed-as-product-of-concern-20241213-p5ky7g
Here’s a rather jam-packed weekly media round-up from Amanda Meade.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2024/dec/13/judge-gives-the-media-a-serve-over-criticism-of-prosecutions-ntwnfb
“There is a yawning gap between the decency we see so often from others in our daily lives, the love and respect we teach our children, and much of the nasty, juvenile nonsense we see on screens and in parliaments. A lot of commentary is just plain mean”, writes Julia Baird on how contempt is accompanying disagreement in so many areas.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/what-if-there-was-a-way-to-measure-someone-s-contempt-now-there-is-20241213-p5ky77.html
Consumers will be hit with another steep rise in their household and car insurance premiums this year as general insurers push revenue growth ahead of rising inflation costs. Colin Kruger reports that actuarial group Finity is forecasting a 12 per cent jump in premiums this year for two of the biggest general insurance sectors – home and car insurance – based on industry statistics and recent forecasts from the industry including listed insurers like IAG and Suncorp.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/double-whammy-household-insurance-costs-to-soar-again-adding-to-inflation-20241211-p5kxh6.html
The Administrative Review Tribunal, which was intended to restore transparency and trust, has released none of the decisions from its first two months of operation, owing to technical problems, reveals Rick Morton.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2024/12/14/exclusive-new-tribunal-yet-publish-single-decision
When one of Australia’s biggest Ponzi schemes collapsed, the money trail led to the casinos. Now Crown and Star could face a courtroom showdown with dudded investors, report Sherryn Groch and Carla Jaeger. “Sew and yes shall reap”, seems an apt adage for the casinos here.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-fraudster-was-a-vip-at-crown-and-star-now-the-casinos-face-a-70-million-lawsuit-20241213-p5ky41.html
Sue Williams gives us a good example of how electric vehicles and apartments are not necessarily a good mix.
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/miguel-bought-a-car-then-there-was-a-2000-fee-to-charge-it-20241212-p5kxwb.html
Australian parents are told not to buy the ultra-processed powdered milk products. But the government is helping fund a boom overseas, explains Patrick Begley.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/taller-stronger-smarter-the-baseless-claims-used-to-sell-toddler-milk-powder-20241209-p5kwzz.html
If Labor wins next year’s election, it will set up a $1 billion building early education fund. This is not a “cash splash”, as the Murdoch papers have described it, says the editorial in The Saturday Paper.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/editorial/2024/12/14/springing-the-parent-trap
NSW’s freshly appointed building commissioner says a culture of doing the bare minimum has taken root in parts of the Australian construction sector, driving building non-compliance and defects, reports Max Maddison.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/new-regulator-calls-out-bare-minimum-culture-in-construction-industry-20241211-p5kxip.html
A Chinese businessman who forged close links with Prince Andrew and was authorised to act on his behalf to seek investors in China has been banned from Britain on national security grounds.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/royal-life/2024/12/14/prince-andrew-friend-security
Putin’s regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think, opines Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. If the Saudis again decide to flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share – as many predict – oil will fall below $US40 and Russia will spin out of economic control. The Ukraine war may end in Riyadh, he says.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/putins-regime-may-be-closer-to-a-soviet-collapse-than-we-think-20241211-p5kxet.html
Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping and other world leaders to his inauguration next month – an unorthodox move that would fold US allies and adversaries into a very American political tradition. No head of state has previously made an official visit to the US for the inauguration, according to State Department historical records.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/shockingly-cavalier-trump-invites-xi-jinping-to-inauguration-20241213-p5ky8d.html
Donald Trump figures he can call all the shots and the world will just fall into line. With the unquestioning support of Elon Musk, he is acting as if the two of them can con the whole planet. But how will Trump tolerate Musk popping up everywhere, notionally taking most of the credit, wonders John Hewson. He warns that the global financial crisis that began in 2008 was caused by a collapse of the subprime housing loan market. It is reasonable to expect the next GFC will be caused by a subprime president. For better or worse, and most likely the latter, his performance will indeed go down in the history books as one that shaped America.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2024/12/12/americas-next-crisis
He’s Person Of The Year, again! But Trump’s most powerful years are ahead, writes Bruce Wolpe who thinks Australia can’t be assured that it will escape a rampant re-elected president’s punishments.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/he-s-person-of-the-year-again-but-trump-s-most-powerful-years-are-ahead-20241213-p5ky4b.html
”Wanted” posters with the names and faces of healthcare executives have appeared on the streets of New York, while hit-lists with images of bullets are circulating online with warnings that industry leaders should be afraid. The apparent targeted killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson and the menacing threats that followed have sent a shudder through corporate America and the healthcare industry in particular, leading to increased security for executives and some workers. America is f****d!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/wanted-posters-with-healthcare-executives-faces-appear-on-new-york-streets-20241213-p5ky3q.html
Jason Koutsoukis tells us about Anthony Pratt’s box seat ride to White House influence and wonders what will he do with his latest, most powerful connection.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/12/14/anthony-pratts-box-seat-ride-white-house-influence
Donald Trump’s appointee to advise him on Middle East affairs, Massad Boulos, is reported to have significant discrepancies between his public profile and documented business background, casting doubt on the thoroughness of the former president’s vetting process. The pantomime continues.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/12/massad-boulos-trump-middle-east-adviser
Cartoon Corner
David Pope – brilliant!








David Rowe
Alan Moir
Mark David
Leak flies the Murdoch flag
From the US
And just to add, in regard Court cases, and very expensive Court cases to boot, we note that 2 of the “money ball” influencers for the Tories are at Court – against family members no less
So the mining beneficiary of her father’s assets and the media “baron”, also inherited
Now at Court against their children
And these people are presented as of substance and importance
With their broken families courtesy of money
And pye eyed, look at the amenity these works afford to community
Then again your mob is going to decrease population by opposing immigration and relying on genetic increases which will actually be a negative (hence their energy policy), reduce GDP accordingly, once again stall wages, destroy superannuation and, if you can not afford it you do not get it
And can I remind you of the debt (and inflation) left behind by both Howard (including private debt which soared) and the lead up to Morrison and defeat (again including inflation)
With your blind ideological bias you are on quicksand
It is not the debt, it is the performance of the assets that debt is invested into
Otherwise there would be no need for banks
So are you of the IPA faction or the God makes babies faction?
Thanks BK!
There are many Australians who will buy into it though.
Thanks BK.
Despite the criticisms, I thought that Dutton’s “nuclear launch” went well yesterday. The policy is not about building nuclear reactors. What’s in it that will appeal to the voters who count is that the LNP are going keep coal and coal-fired power stations in the game. Despite what they say when asked, a lot of Australians look upon coal with a great deal of affection.
I think it’s great Centre and Dutton want to make energy an election issue. We can all get nostalgic about Coalition energy policies that weren’t.
Nuclear power stations would have made sense in 2004 or even 2013. But instead of policy, we had the internal Coalition thumb wrestling championships for 9 long years and a bunch of announcements. It makes perfect sense for the “Wreckers, not Do-ers” party to have a platform that’s 15years past its use by date – like Rory Breaker, we aren’t the kinda pussies to drink sour milk.
WA Senator Michaelia Cash will lead the Coalition in the Senate after South Australian Liberal Simon Birmingham announced he was retiring at the next election.
The Liberal senator — who served as Attorney General under Scott Morrison — was unopposed as the party’s candidate, with South Australian Senator Anne Ruston also elected unopposed as deputy opposition leader in the Senate.
Senator Cash’s new title comes ahead of the next Federal election, which must be called by May 2025, and makes her the first female Coalition senate leader. “It is an absolute privilege and honour to have been elected by my colleagues to be their Leader in the Senate,’’ she said. “I look forward to working with my Coalition colleagues to continue to hold the terrible Albanese Government to account in the Senate.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/wa-liberal-michaelia-cash-elected-to-replace-simon-birmingham-as-partys-federal-senate-leader-c-17075024
Senator Cash is the biggest hypocrite. Lambasted Labor changing back to Kevin Rudd from Julia Gillard ‘because they didn’t have the guts to go with her to the election”. And then voted for Malcolm Turnbull to topple Tony Abbott as Prime Minster when Abbott looked certain to lose.
This terrible government left back to back surpluses and is sticking to the same Prime Minster. Unlike the three headed dogs breakfast previous Liberal government. That left a debt five times Labor in office and pushed the national debt out to a trillion.
So, Dutton wants business and households to cut their power usage and pay more for the energy they will use, under his mega expensive ideologically socialist energy policy …?
If Bowen and Albo can’t destroy Dutton on this policy with simple plain speaking then Labor truly is finished.
SMG’s gazillionaire’s not amused, “Our nation is under existential threat as Australians are abandoned by our weakest PM ever”, talk about beliefs overcoming reality, risk/ threat residuals from you are either with … or …
Meanwhile in America, even before TDJT’s inauguration chatter about lowering groceries pricing is being walked back, unlike say daylight savings time
Here’s the headline …
Australia’s Clean Energy Transition Partnership a ‘huge win’ on climate
Sounds good …
Hmmm. The bit about “significant symbolic step” doesn’t quite scan right … and then you read on …
Assuming this even gets up, how many new domestic fossil fuel projects do you think will be “geared exclusively towards export”?
I think we can guess the answer to that one.
But still, a “significant symbolic” step for Australia. Yay! 🙁
Good morrow, comrades!
Glad it’s finally Saturday, after a pig of a week. Also, first day of the third test. Weather forecast looking crap for Brisbane though. Hopefully any rain stays away until the evening/early morning or avoids the Gabba for the next couple of days.
Stuart says:
Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 9:17 am
Despite the criticisms, I thought that Dutton’s “nuclear launch” went well yesterday. The policy is not about building nuclear reactors. What’s in it that will appeal to the voters who count is that the LNP are going keep coal and coal-fired power stations in the game. Despite what they say when asked, a lot of Australians look upon coal with a great deal of affection.
———
Well the “plan” is certainly not about building nuclear power plants. Doubt many voters have a hardon for coal, suppose you’re saying this sarcastically.
[‘The Age says former “tennis ace” [my emphasis] Sam Groth has quit the state opposition’s frontbench…’]
The Age is overstating the matter. He only won two minor tournaments. His main claim to fame is recording the fastest serve, 163.7 mph (263.4 km/h). Save for doubles & team events such as the Davis & Hopman Cups, tennis is an individual sport, which might explain why he hasn’t
supported his dear leader in his moment of need.
Q: a lot of Australians look upon coal with a great deal of affection.
Never seen a poll reflecting that.. indeed coal is usually chosen as the worst option
Q: a lot of Australians look upon coal with a great deal of affection.
Never seen a poll reflecting that.. indeed coal is usually chosen as the worst option
Voters don’t care about coal. They just want the power to be there when they turn something on, and they don’t want to pay a lot for it.
Dutton’s Plan for Australia is coming together nicely.
It is to put a cabal of incompetent and corrupt ministers in charge, to increase the cost and to halve the supply of energy, to increase the number of students, to decrease government services, to decrease the qualifications of Australians, to promote division, to suppress wages, to collect every cent of HECs, to support Israel uncritically, and to reduce housing supply.
It’s pretty bloody simple, the LNP is coming to rip out Aussie households air conditioning and roof top solar.
It’s a choice between more available and cheaper electricity, or less available and more expensive electricity. Nuclear is the low economic growth option.