RedBridge Group last week had a poll of state voting intention in Victoria that has the Coalition leading 51-49, unchanged on the last such poll in late September and October. However, the primary votes suggest this implies an unusually strong preference flow to Labor: the Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 43%, which reflects a five-point drop in others to 13% rather than a further loss of support for Labor, who are steady on 30%, or the Greens, who are up two to 14%. The poll was conducted November 6 to 20 from a sample of 920. UPDATE: Full report here.
Labor has announced it will not field a candidate for the looming by-election in Prahran resulting from the resignation of Greens-turned-independent member Sam Hibbins, despite having held the seat as recently as 2010. The Greens have endorsed Angelica Di Camillo, a 26-year-old environmental engineer who had been preselected for the federal seat of Higgins before the redistribution abolished it. The Age reports a Liberal preselection vote is expected to be held on December 15, but there has been no indication as to who might run.
RedBridge Group also had a state poll for New South Wales, which doesn’t get its own post because I’m presuming there will be another along from Resolve Strategic in a week or two. This maintained a pattern of soft polling for the first term Labor government, credited with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead that compares with a 54.3-46.7 result at the March 2023 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (unchanged from the election), Coalition 41% (up from 35.4%) and Greens 9% (down from 9.7%). This poll was also conducted November 6 to 20, from a sample of 1088.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
This continues the global trend of incumbents being punished for the state of the world regardless of the quality of the opposition.
People are being emmiserated by the neoliberal enshittification of society, so of course they blame the incumbents.
Sadly people shifting from Labor to the LNP don’t realise this will only make things worse!
First comment 🙂
It’s surprising Labor isn’t fielding a candidate in Prahran (to me, anyway). Given that the circumstances of the by-election should count against the Greens, Labor would surely have been in with a decent chance.
And greetings, SolarPunk.
Hi Ante
Easier to not loose face if you aren’t even in the contest, thinks the ALP.
Also there is some logic in saving the money a campaign may cost if they don’t think they can win.
I just hope the ALP are learning the lessons of why incumbents are losing and planning to come up with some populist policies that make life better for the average person (spoilers: they won’t). They are probably also too gutless to campaign on the fact the Liberal party has been taken over by religious nutters (the Liberal party of today would never have decriminalised homosexuality like they did back in 1980!!)
Victorian newspapers are full of doom and gloom
– “Investors are leaving the state”, where are they going? Queensland?
– “Investors selling their rentals”, to be expected when the government has hostile attitude to landlords, but will that result in more owner occupiers
– anger over plans for denser housing in middle ring suburbs
No recognition of
– Victoria fastest growing state
– Massive infrastructure spend after 9 years of being starved of federal funding
– John Pesutto barely has control of the loonies in the Liberal party, more important than media admit
– memory of corrupt land deals by former Liberal Planning Minister Guy in Port Melbourne and Phillip Island
The banner headline at The Age today is “New debacle in Allan government’s public transport blitz”
IF you read past the headline, a property developer on Title for broad acres (so mortgaged?), is taking the government (“dragged”) to Court over a design for a new bridge over tracks near Melton.
The government response is that this action by a property developer will not derail the project past the anticipated completion time, ahead of the 2026 State election (which is the last paragraph, the article NOT behind a paywall).
But, we get the headline we get, including the government being “dragged” to Court (as 9 Entertainment headline that Swan was “dragged” to a Parliamentary Committee, the Committee Chaired by an anti-superannuation Right Wing politician).
The question is, are we governed by media, with its Tory bias and influencing, or governed by government, government WE have elected?
Simply the media seek to undermine Labor governments as a full time occupation, and promote their Tory masters. This headline being yet another example of attempts to influence with no consideration other than peddling misinformation.
And this is but another example of why I trust, that in 2026 Labor is returned with yet another landslide result.
Ditto, federally.
Simply, if the toxic 9 Entertainment, Murdoch and Stokes (along with the USA owned 10 Network) promote the Tories and seek to influence as described, I will never vote for the party they promote.
Elsewhere I have referred to the address by Bullock, at the CEDA Annual dinner in Sydney last Thursday, to which I was invited and attended.
The coverage at 9 Entertainment by Wright was an outright misrepresentation of what Bullock said (and the answers to the questions she took)
I have not noted any coverage by any other media (apart from the ABC)
And it goes on and on by media.
Agree SolaPunk
Look at New Zealand (referred to by Bullock last week at the CEDA function)
We are indeed in dangerous times.
The stench of leftie labor state government loserville is the only thing coming from Victoria.
And just to add, in the lead up to the last State election we were instructed by media and THEIR polling that Victoria was headed for a hung parliament – and Andrews was in danger in the seat he represented
So I also call out this polling by media
And all this does is to provide a platform to no brain idiots such as the anonymous Pied Piper who unfortunately infest society singing from their pulpit, jumping up and down, yelling and throwing their hands in the air
In wider society they are objects of scorn
There are reasons that since the unexpected (by media) defeat of Kennett when we were told (by media) Kennett was on line for a landslide win, we have only had one term of Tory government, the person who led them to that one term of government, an urbane figure whose son is now a Teal councillor and who was instrumental in the election of Ryan, torn down mid term
And there are similar examples elsewhere around Australia
Depers has it right. In Victoria the Liberals are an unelectable rabble with open warfare between the “christian” cultists and that which was once the IPA sponsored Right, now described as “moderates”
In 2022 the Liberal adherents believed Daniel Andrews would lose his seat. A Liberal voting friend assured me last week that Andrews was the most unpopular person in Victoria. He could not comprehend the landslide victories Andrews achieved.
Two years before an election is due so these numbers are a bit “blah”. If a week is a long time in politics what is two years, a millennia ?
I put it down to me making two visits to Melbourne within 40 days after a long absence.
The polls have pretty much been stagnant since July 2024 – the fact the Libs can’t get a decisive lead despite relentless negative media coverage of the Allan government speaks volumes about how weak they are as an opposition.
There has been decline in Labor’s polling during the first year of the Andrews-to-Allan transition, but like Thomas says, the polls haven’t changed much in the last few months so it have stabilised now.
We are literally only half way through this term, and in the first half of the term Labor have had:
– Popular (despite what many perceive) Premier step down;
– Commonwealth Games cancellation;
– Interest rates hit peak, nothing to do with state gov but contributes to anger & discontent;
– Two very tough budgets and constant news about debt/deficit;
– Constant media attacks about project delays & cost blowouts with nothing really completed to show for it yet
It’s been a rough first two years front-loading a lot of bad news, but it does appear that perhaps their polling has hit its floor already, and the Coalition’s may have hit its ceiling, for a state that generally leans left.
Look at 2010 when you had a similar perfect storm: federal Labor (in much more turmoil than now), state government 11 years old, recent change of leader in the last term. The Coalition despite all that only achieved a 51.5% 2PP and the slimmest majority with 45 seats.
Fast forward to present day, the state is arguably even more left-leaning now than it was in 2010, and the electoral map is even less friendly to the Coalition in that a 51.5% Coalition 2PP would be very unlikely to deliver them a majority. With an increased Greens cross-bench it would probably just result in a minority Labor government.
But there are still two years left until the election, and in those two years:
– West Gate Tunnel will open in 2025;
– Metro Tunnel will open in 2025;
– As a result, far less construction & disruption and people start feeling the benefits;
– The operating budget goes from deficit in 2024-25 to surplus in 2025-26;
– Labor will no doubt release more “election friendly” budgets in 2025 & 2026;
– There are still two years for the divided Liberal Party to implode, especially with the ruling about the Deeming case due this month
In other words, 2 years is a very long time for Labor to at least somewhat recover, especially when they switch to campaign mode, which is a strong suit.
I’m not saying we’re looking at another 2022 result, but there would certainly be a floor for Labor and a ceiling for the Liberals in this state that the current polling is probably already close to, the last 2 years have been about as rough for Labor as you can get, there’s a lot more opportunity for “good news” in the next 2 years before the election, and even current polling or a 2010 result would be very unlikely to deliver a Liberal victory, more likely Labor winning 41-44 seats with at least 5 Greens on the crossbench.
As much as I’d like to think that the LNP have peaked, I think there is just a pause in the swing until such time as Liberal Party room get there ducks in a row. They probably don’t even need to do that quickly, because when you are in opposition you can be a bit of a rabble most of the time IF the government is on the nose. … and it appears from afar that the Labor Party Government is in a tailspin and having been in power for 12 years come the next election I think they are gone. Completely gone.
The only thing that might save Allen and Co is if Dutton becomes PM next year. Victorians might decide to keep Labor on as a counter balance. A
Normally from a landslide like that which occurred twice in Vic it is difficult for the losing party come back in one election. If they have their act together then it takes 2 to 3 elections to win. When the opposition leader just wins Hawthorn and ends up in court fighting against right wing nutters there is a long way to go
A lot of nasty comments on this thread. Thought that was usually reserved for the main (or USA) threads. . .
Pesutto needs a proper lead on the PM question, and over a period of a few months, for Libs to be heading to government.
The Liberal vote has contracted to the Outer Eastern suburbs and specifically the foot of the Dandenongs where there is an increasing Pentecostal presence
This is confirmed by recent Council elections where the Liberal Party has been all but wiped out in its former inner suburban blue ribbon seats – witness a first time Teal candidate as Mayor, prevailing over the remaining Liberal who pressured that he was the longest serving Councillor so deserved the position
The son of a Liberal Premier, also successful, pulled the numbers together presenting that Council is progressive by 7 to 1 – and the Mayor duly elected
These results confirm the presentation at the opening paragraph – and also go to confirm that, having returned to the Parliament after an unexpected defeat on the back of weekly columns in The Age as the defacto leader by a very narrow margin, the ALP committing minimal funds because having an IPA operative as Liberal leader suited them, one of the Teal councillors selected to take on the Liberal leader is in with an excellent chance of ousting him from the seat again
With the arguable exception of Pied Piper’s, there are no nasty comments on this thread.
No one mention Collingwood.
Most comments the libs have not got their act together.
You still have the festering sore which was the Cormack Court Case (noting the Cormack Board of Trustees now includes the Silk who represented one side in those matters, successful at Court and now in the position he is in at Cormack)
And that is before you get to IPA versus the Pentecostals and where a dispute between an IPA operative and a Pentecostal remains before the Court for judgment
Which is before you get to the National Party
And in regards the Business Council of Australia opinion, well, they would say that wouldn’t they
This is a Tory organisation which promotes that the most effective form of regulation is self regulation – and anti paying tax
Joke of a survey got to say WA second last and qld third last.
State of state commbank puts WA first!
Mind you Vic is struggling.
Well, tried to get a Tradie?
Or get into a Restaurant without a reservation?
Don’t worry about Victoria – including because the spending on inter generational infrastructure (so rail and road) are keeping employment buoyant which is keeping the economy buoyant (so the secret to doing well is to get a trade)
Also real estate and motor vehicles are selling – including with significant price tags (and providing good employment opportunities selling)
It may be that because of their personal circumstances including such events as marriage breakups some are not doing as well as others – but across life that is always the case. Not all people live in mansions – some have always survived in lesser circumstances including a need to work multiple low paying jobs to make ends meet
There is no evidence of Mortgagee Auctions – and residences including Unit developments continue being built – and sold
On top of that try finding a car park at the major shopping centres if you don’t get there early
A whole failed economy propped up by public debt which is exploding .Anyone can up the debt with growth that is not sustainable.
A economy based on public debt.
Agree with commentary by Peter C
House prices have actually stabilised in vic, which is a good thing. But of course not according to our pathetic media.
In fact, the most first home buyers are coming from Victoria.
Again a good thing.
Victoria continues to get a bad rap, even with respect to the weather.
The gaslighting is amazing.
I see heading about bad weather being on its way and it shows vic state. I click on, and Lo and behold it is referencing qld and nsw.
It has happened so many times in the last few weeks. Surely it is not an accident.
wtf! It is so frustrating. I am done with our media.
Victoria is propped up by a huge and growing public debt. All of the money is going into the big projects including the SRL. Some other issues:
– massive waste – Commonwealth Games and Arden hospital.
– continual funding crisis in the health system.
– health and education projects cuts – ask any architect or engineer – no or few projects in the pipeline.
– policy on the run – not costed, thought through, or alternatives considered – SRL and housing density.
– lack of public consultation and sham consultation – transmission lines are in that category.
– run down services – driven down a country highway lately? Pot holes and not maintained. Lots of road signs unreadable.
Population growth is driving down the quality of life and the basic services can’t be provided – not enogh schools, hospitals, or staff to work in them.
And folks – not sure who you are talking to – but – there are a lot grumpy people out there. The ‘baseball bats’ might not be swinging yet but they are being held and reached for.
That is not enough for the LNP to win government. They are that far behind that this would result in a hung parliament. But it must be about time the Liberals have another crack at the leader again.
However the Allen government does seem to be a lot of things to piss off a lot of people at the moment.
Their housing policy is at best confused, but could easily be described as schizophrenia. They want more dwellings on the one hand but then are locking up more areas from development. They need more rental properties but are making it harder for landlords.
The major projects are all over due and have blown out, but the militant unions are annoyed still despite getting all that extra overtime.
The exams stuff up was not really the governments fault but they haven’t demanded the heads that need to roll. The whole department of education admin needs a broom through it (not the teachers… they are suffering because of it too).
On the Commonwealth games: I have no problem with abandoning it, It should never have been applied for in the first place. Trying to host in multiple locations was always going to be more costly as it means a lack of economy of scales. Also they allow the Commonwealth Games Association to want too many sports. It needed to be scaled back in scope and size, not including more sports as happened.
Glasgow is now hosting 10 sports, instead of 24 and without a athletes’ village.
That full redbridge poll is available here :
Link: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Victorian-state-vote-intention-Nov-2024.pdf
The 28 ALP to 41 LNP Inner Suburban vote is of note.
B.S.F.
It’s a fairly old gov’t, and it looks to me to be on the way out.
This poll mirrors the Resolve poll from 10-Nov.
The Vic Libs come across to me as still a bit of a clownshow, but I suppose if they can get their act together somewhat – get internal differences out of the courts & papers – they may be in with a chance.
I’m more interested in Fed implications on the basis of Albo first, Jacinta in 2 years time
Agree that Victoria should never have agreed to host comm games. This should have been the signal to do away with it.
Fact is no one wants to host them anymore.
Canada has already pulled out for 2030.
It is no longer a viable event.
The Comm games are viable as a limited sporting event. But they aren’t viable with the additional hoopla of opening and closing ceremonies, specially built athletes villages, new venues….. Plus keep it to a limited amount of individual sports. Team sports means more people, more cost….
So yes, they are not viable in their current form.
The actually TPP the LNP require to win office is 52.2% and that means winning in areas where there is a lack of a functioning Liberal party. There are parts of the state where the branches are in the hands of right wing nuts jobs. That is why Deeming got up in the upper house.
The National Party is actually in control of basically all the areas where they have branches. They can’t win any more lower house seats without going into areas which are normally contested by the Liberal Party.
The Labor insider who I talked to about the campaign was amazed at how shambolic Labor’s campaign was in 2024 and how to not only come out with a win but an increased majority was amazing.
I suspect Labor will sneak over the line in 2026 or end up in minority government with the Greens holding the balance. This will result in a situation not dislike what NSW Labor found itself in 2006, winning when they shouldn’t have, and getting burnt to ashes the next time.
I am not sure Allen is going to make it to 2026 either as she is not cutting through enough. If there is a move it will happen in March of 2026.
B S fairman
If not Jacinta Allan. Who do you see as being her replacement?
Good to see you back posting Victoria.
Your name cropped up the other day on the main thread.
Agree with you about the Comm Games too.
Either they wind it back to basic competition or ditch it completely.
I think Jacinta will do her term. She’ll want to do an election for sure.
The area of compliant is Land Tax assessments, these assessments based on the valuation of the property giving optimum usage
The revaluations used to occur every 3 years (as with Council Rates, capped by government at 3% per annum increase)
So with Land Tax there is an aggregation of time since the last valuation by the Valuer General and the increase in property values per se
The percentage captured by Land Tax assessments is not known, but would be a minority
Accountants, thru the prism of tax management incorporate a maze of Trusts when a common beneficiary introduces the inclusion of an aggregate property ownership – the higher the aggregate figure the higher the assessment (it being based on the aggregate of property owned)
So if you have 6 properties subject to Land Tax, the assessment is based on the aggregate value, the charge rate increasing with the increasing aggregate value – before the rising prices of property so again an aggregation
If you follow
Mind you the impost is tax deductible
Then there is complaint re Workcover, where the fix is to have a workplace where no one is on Workcover, the premiums based on the number of your employees claiming
Hey Peter C,
I’m not an accountant, but my basic understanding is this.
* Up until 30/6/2023, land tax was payable when the value of the land (land only, not land & house) reached $300k
* On 1/7/2023, land tax is now payable when the value of the land reaches $50k.
The main residence remains exempt.
In essence, this has captured every property owner in Vic.
Deductability applies if the property in question is an investment (ie: tenanted).
If it’s a holiday house, Victorian’s are now paying land tax.
A lot of Victorian’s own a seaside retreat in the Mornington or Bellarine Peninsula’s.
I’m not concerned about wealthy property owners in Portsea who have tennis courts all over their property, it’s working class folk from Thornbury & Bulleen etc who are now having to pay additional taxes.
I believe this is what is driving the Lib vote up, and the Labor vote down. 30% on Redbridge, 28% on the recent Resolve. 37% at the last election.
Libs need to get their vote consistently up in the 40’s. Last resolve 38%, this poll now 43%.
We’ll see some polls next year no doubt, but without having a finance degree, I’d say this is one of the issues causing the Labor vote to sink somewhat. Not withstanding a 24% primary they recorded for a Fed vote intention in June, when most of these bills had to be paid.
Per workcover – I think Labor & the Libs changed eligibililty a year ago or so but I don’t know enough about it.
Anyway, I’m more geared towards any impacts on our next Fed election.
Your principal place of residence is exempt from Land Tax.
ALL other property owned, so a holiday house, an investment property, an unoccupied site/property attract Land Tax – and on the basis of best potential use.
There was an exempt figure and a rising scale on valuation (the same as the tax system, the more you earn the more you pay) but that exempt figure was low.
I purchased an investment property for $145,000- in 1995 – and paid Land Tax from the get go (until I sold it for $780,000- in 2012).
The assessment was based on the Valuer General’s valuation, which you could dispute (good luck!).
Given the presentation that if you can not afford it you do not get it, the ability to pay Land Tax is a cost of having (and being able to afford to have)
Given the responsibilities o f government (which is not a business), government needs to obtain revenue for distribution.
So we have a tax system – which until the mid 1980’s included an upper marginal tax rate of 60 cents in the $1- (which was never complained about).
This is the price of living in a cohesive society, and well worth it given the alternative.
Further, I would put that we have seen the outcomes from “austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down” including that in regards New Zealand and their adherence to that doctrine, they are emigrating to Australia in record numbers (hence the migrant figure despite the government attempting to reduce the numbers coming in)
New Zealand is mired in deep recession, reducing their Cash Rate by 50 Basis Points last week, to about where our Cash Rate is.
Government spending is across all levels of government noting Bullock saying at the CEDA event last week that she rejected suggestions there ‘s too much government spending in Australia, saying things could be much worse without it.
She said government spending was helping to keep the economy on an even keel as the RBA goes about its work to tame inflation.
She also rejected that current levels of growth in the public service is a bad thing and that growth in employment in the non-market sector is actually good, with teachers, nurses, aged care workers being people we need (and we need these people, so the growth is good).
My notes include the private sector growing very slowly at the moment with public consumption per capita declining and that government spending was actually providing crucial support.
Unlike other peer economies, despite the RBA action, Australia still has full employment – and rising wages allowing the RBA more time at lower interest rates than elsewhere to address inflation.
My notes are more comprehensive than this – but you get the drift.
The pity is the remarks were not correctly reported by media (if at all) and, indeed were misrepresented by Wright of 9 Entertainment
The crux of this is that government needs revenue, and the old story is that if you earn it or have it you pay.
For the greater good (except to provide a life style for bludgers of course, which is my view!! IF employment is not able to be found because of the economic circumstances fair enough but that is NOT the case in Australia today.)
Full employment is not the 800,000 approx Australians unemployed as is the case now.
Jobs figures misleading as they include non residents gaining employment.
VIC is an economic disaster no coincidence with quotas everywhere employment not based not on merit but on one’s sex or race.Productivity stuffed will need a federal bailout in a few years as debt compounds.
The Victorian ALP will be returned in a landslide again. As soon as the election is called, in two years, ie, November 2026, the spotlight will be put on the LNP. The Victorian LNP is a mix of South Gileadians and bible thumping zealots. They will implode as they always do.
The Projects will be finished and the voters will be grateful. if Dutton is PM, Jacinta will romp home, despite what the media always says.
pp
Keep trying!!!
We get what drives your perpetual negativity and attacks on Labor governments
The simple fact is, when you have been around for as long as me, done what you have done over your working career (including secondments to Treasury and to a University – to introduce the University to business and commerce and vice versa), you have some abilities to present – and refute
Simply, been there, done that
So refuting what some put on this site, noting the consistency of what they put, I am of the view that I am well placed to call out the BS, not based on fact but based on political party allegiance
And with the credibility of your views – actually lack thereof – and the consistency of these misrepresentations it is a waste of time responding to you
I just trust that others dismiss you for who and what you are
In regard life these days, well there are a raft of functions with, in some instances, those I have met across my journey and in others the children of those I associated with (their parents a generation older than me so unfortunately no longer with us, but that is how far back it goes)
This social circle results in invitation – including to the CEDA Annual dinner in Sydney last week – the address given by Bullock so that is the esteem of this event (and I would expect that the circles I associate in are far removed from your circumstances – so the conversation I engage in is not with such as you)
The frustration is that you misrepresent as you do – and I have always called out misrepresentation
Across life (even with me!!!) no one is always right just as no one is always wrong
It is said that where you have believed in something and someone puts a counter position you come to accept, they are your strongest beliefs
As a result of a comprehensive and exhaustive audit – and time
Your presentations only lead me to label you as I do
So enjoy your life – sitting on this site 24/7 contributing as you do
Now, being December, tomorrow I have a breakfast at a Restaurant around the corner, followed by a luncheon at one of Melbourne’s prestigious Clubs then a “Court Party” in the late afternoon
Then no doubt nod off watching the cricket from my old stomping ground (actually Adelaide Number 2 which was out the back from the Member’s Stand, if it is still there, which had the best batting deck going around and was a very small ground)
As with everything, Adelaide Oval – and Adelaide – have changed but everything changes over time (except you!!)
Facts are the interest payed on the massive debt is exploding.
Not sustainable and no plan despite spin to reduce it.
Debt increasing so is the crazy tunnel system watch debt blow out even more via VIC labor they are experts at it.
Albo not visiting VIC much he’s embarrassed and the state labor government will drag him down as well when polls open.
Sam Groth thinks he is leadership material. Is this the Dunning-Kruger effect or the Deeming-Kroger effect at work here?
Entropy, at 2.38pm. Genius.