Newspoll has not reported on its more-or-less usual three-weekly schedule, but the usual weekly Roy Morgan should be along later today, followed by the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll tomorrow. In other developments:
• Simon Birmingham, Shadow Foreign Minister and Senate Opposition Leader, announced last week he will retire from parliament by the end of the year. As well as creating a vacancy for his South Australian Senate seat, his departure has resulted in the Senate leadership going from a leading moderate to a factional conservative in Western Australian Senator Michaelia Cash.
• Labor in Tasmania has confirmed its Senate ticket will be headed by Left faction incumbent Carol Brown followed by Right-aligned newcomer Richard Dowling, adviser to state Labor leader Dean Winter and former director of public policy with Meta. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Jessica Munday, Left-aligned secretary of Unions Tasmania, withdrew after recognising she lacked support, but now hopes to fill the casual Senate vacancy created by Anne Urquhart’s looming bid for the lower house seat of Braddon. Munday was subject to a party disciplinary process earlier this year after featuring a poster for Labor-turned-independent member David O’Byrne in her yard during the March state election campaign.
• Lachlan Leeming of the Daily Telegraph reports three candidates have nominated for preselection to succeed retiring Nationals member David Gillespie in Lyne: former Berejiklian-Perrottet government minister Melinda Pavey; Alison Penfold, senior adviser to Gillespie; and Forster-based accountant Terry Murphy.
• Hawkesbury councillor Mike Creed has been preselected as Liberal candidate for the Sydney fringe seat of Macquarie, held for Labor by Susan Templeman on a post-redistribution margin of 6.3%.
• The flurry of legislation the government was able to pass through the Senate last week did not include its campaign finance reform bill, which was pulled from the notice paper after a failure to land an agreement with the Coalition. Michelle Grattan at The Conversation reports the Liberals sought to “insert a potential legal time bomb” in the form of a provision that would likely mean the entire bill would be invalidated if the High Court found against any of it in the seemingly likely event of a High Court challenge. The Liberals also pushed for higher donation caps and disclosure thresholds and less generous caps for peak bodies, being specifically concerned about the ACTU. The responsible minister, Don Farrell, says consultations will continue over summer, seemingly with both the Coalition and the cross-bench.
Nadia
I wish it were just the politics of climate change.
It’s all gone beyond that. It first bloodied the nose of Australian politics with Howard and the boats
It’s in the waterways, the fishing, the extraction industries, trade, immigration, housing, superannuation, unions and more.
It’s the best of the shock jocks, the inflation rate, employment indigenous issues and more.
Politics has made it very acceptable to rage without reason
(Renewables i’d left out)
Look what Morrison did with mindless dribble and “I don’t accept the premise”
Look what low information, low intelligence Opposition leader is able to get away with!
The effort needed from Chalmers and Labor to rein in the politics of the economy has hardly been given a hearing, let alone some intelligence and information.
Or “not all women want to be CEOs”
The media with its current multi-layered platforms has had a “butcher’s picnic” with it ability to go untested and fancy free.
The ABC infighting and indulgences.
Mob intelligence rules.
The politics of climate change totally heightened, lives on the edges.
The fuses are so easy to ignite.
(Jones and Cronulla)
The dead tree media in its vertically and horizontally new structure, no longer attempts to report “news”, it’s unadulterated opinion leading, partisan nonsense.
The morons love it, it fits comfortably within their ” new age” poverty and “I’m doing it tough” in the new age.
Holdens and Fords have given way to a motoring level of opulence, once the domain of “the better off”.
Low intelligence and low information have an affluent Australia living in the belief that the significance of their opinion is infallible and the “snake oil salesmen” haven’t missed a beat in the uptake.
No better played out than the “voice” where the overwhelming majority were easily convinced of the “unfairness” of it all.
The punters loved it so much that some thought we’d give the nuclear “afterburners” a bit of stick “down the main street”.
And “that” cohort are loving it.
The demographics over Dutton’s allegation that the governments stance on the Middle East is to win Greens votes is of interest noting the divisions the (now 70 year plus and enduring) conflict is causing in Australian society
I have never fathomed why it is Labor being attacked as they have and are being attacked
Labor promote a 2 State solution
Which brings us back to Dutton and his allegation re Labor and the Greens, in competition
Simply, Dutton is an advocate for Israel exclusively – so a free pass for the Israel (right wing) government no matter – including that after 7 October he instructed Albanese immediately go to Israel to stand beside the Israel pm
And now the avowed Israel promoter attempts to play politics with this dispute by making allegations against Labor that they are influenced by the Greens (and this we will no doubt see – vote Labor and get a Greens government, so the first salvo there)
Given the diversity of opinion in Australia the objectionable Dutton sits 100% behind Israel, placing him at odds with not only opinion in Australia but internationally courtesy of positions at the UN
So how would Dutton instruct Australia to vote at the UN?
Along with how many others – so staining the reputation of Australia globally
But Dutton gets free passage – including from those protesting in Australia
And now plays tawdry politics alleging that the Labor position is to win votes off the Greens
Dutton is unelectable as the fullness of time and an election campaign will instruct because he will be flushed out for who and what he is
As Australia score
How many votes are in it for Dutton exclusively supporting the Israel government?
Simply, among those of Jewish background I associate with (so quite a number) they are critical of the Israel government – and embarrassed
And well put, Goll
These types need to be called out and questioned
c@t: “Like I said last night, there’s a battle between the parties for the Indian-Australian vote.”
—————————————————————————
I’m not wanting to have a go at you, but is there actually such a thing as the Indian-Australian “vote”?
The Indians are probably the most consistently highly-educated and affluent of all migrant groups ever to come to Australia. Because of my longstanding interest in India, I interact with many of them, and find a lot of them to be pretty right wing, in keeping with their focus on increasing their wealth as quickly as they possibly can But there also seems to be a group of younger, politically-active Indian migrants who is more left-leaning.
So my impression is that the Indian community is pretty heterogenous politically, and would be less inclined than some other migrant communities to vote for a candidate simply because they are ethnically Indian.
The one thing that does seem to unite a significant proportion of Hindu migrants from India, regardless of whether they are more inclined to vote Liberal or Labor, is their enthusiasm for Modi and his BJP government: as, for instance, we have seen demonstrated by our very own Labor-supporting, Modi-loving poster Ven.
Perhaps if someone could start a local branch of the BJP, that would attract a lot of Indian votes. There used to be local branches of the Italian Communist Party in Australia and they used to mobilise a lot of votes which mostly went to the ALP. Perhaps Labor could use the bromance between Modi and Albo to attract a bit of BJP support.
c@t: “meher baba,
I wasn’t making reference to Liberal advertising material this election cycle but reminding you of the last election when the Liberals did the things you criticised Labor for. Also pointing out that they always vilify the Labor Party and its leader in some way. And they are successful doing it most of the time. That’s all.”
Yes, but I was only criticising the advertising strategy, not the fairness or otherwise of the attacks on Dutton, or how they compare to the attacks that the Libs made on Labor in some past election, somewhere, sometime. To be honest, I didn’t even bothering to read all of the words on the poster. I have no problem with Labor attacking Dutton as much as they like: there’s plenty there to work with.
I’m just not convinced it’s going to work.
This about sums it up:
Division of Sturt (SA)
* Last election Stevens pulled 43, Labor pulled 31 & the Greens 16
* Going by the recent Black by-election, there is clearly an anti Lib feel in Adelaide. 16% primary swing against which could be a bit of “we love Malinauskas”. 16% is quite a swing though. Looks a bit more like, “Dutton go away”, has been added on top.
* I think Stevens is in strife.
meher baba,
Hindus and Sikhs. I believe the Sikhs are more inclined to a social democrat perspective than maybe the Hindus are. And yes, there’s a healthy competition between the parties for their votes. I know one of the most influential organisers in Labor for the Indian-Australian community.
Just last night I was writing about the Barton preselection kurfuffle.
The last time there was a preselection ballot for Barton was back in 2013. Chris Minns’ mate in this little ICAC affair – former Hurstville mayor Steve MacMahon (Minns is himself a former deputy Hurstville mayor) won, beating Rockdale mayor Shane O’Brien in the last count. Disclaimer – I voted for O’Brien.
There were other notable candidates who fell by the wayside earlier in the count including Mark Buttigieg and Yvette Andrews. Both of whom are rumoured to be trailing their coat this time around (if Albo allows the nsw branch to conduct a preselection contest). Back in 2013 MacMahon had head office backing in the form of Sam Dastyari, and as a consequence Shaquette threw his numbers behind MacMahon over his former fellow Rockdale councillor O’Brien. MacMahon went on to lose the seat for Labor with a pretty big swing (ie. larger than the anti-Labor swing recorded in adjoining seats). I always wondered where Steve ended up, and behold: now we know:
“NSW Premier Chris Minns referred to corruption watchdog ICAC over Rosehill racecourse housing plan
A parliamentary committee has voted to refer the NSW premier to the corruption watchdog over the government’s signature housing plans for Rosehill Gardens.
https://7news.com.au/politics/politics-election-nsw/nsw-premier-chris-minns-referred-to-corruption-watchdog-icac-over-rosehill-racecourse-housing-plan-c-16973589”
The Teals in their particular neighbourhoods are giving a large proportion of particularly women, but not exclusively, the rationale to support the Teals.
And it is not looking to be stopped by the next election.
I’m expecting the Teals to become a greater force.
The Teals will undo the traditional power houses of Australian politics.
(It may even assume the unrepresentative significance of the Nationals)
Back to the Future and Trade Wars:
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/china-is-on-a-collision-course-with-trump-it-just-fired-a-warning-shot-20241204-p5kvot.html
I’d be buying shares in Australian Rare Earths mining companies.
And just to add Goll, they are in this site for a purpose – this differing from what they present they are on here for
Their pontifications are therefore without substance – they attempt to present as something they are not but in fact only attempt to influence against the government (so Labor)
And when responded to with FACTS, including by quoting what the RBA Governor has actually said, they just move on with their partisan dribble
In regards the Teals they will take further traditional Tory seats
What is instructive is the respect they are afforded by the government versus what they endure from the Tories (so disrespectful, savage and just plain rude)
Enforcing the elitist, racist and sexist reputation of the Tories
Want a chuckle check out west aus online now and the whacky photo of Treasurer.
Perhaps c@t.
The younger people I speak with (I’m 36) – but most of them just want to have fun during their 20’s and 30’s and sort of want to break free from “dogma”. They understand climate change is a serious issue, but they also want to do things like nightclubs, boyfriends, girlfriends, and just have a bit of fun before they settle down to mortgages and bills etc
Similar to when young people were running around in the 1960’s and 1970’s. They just wanted to have a bit of fun until things got serious for them in the 1980’s or 1990’s when interest rates hit 17% or whatever and they had to (or were suddenly forced) to grow up.
Usually we let people in their 20’s, have a bit of fun & leeway before society forces them to settle down.
That younger cohort are being denied that.
Pie-eyed
It is pointless making a rejoinder to you as you do not come here to discuss/debate/argue your case.
You remind me of the old adage that put one bit of white paint in black and nothing happens. But put one bit of black in white an it turns it grey.
That seems to be your gig.
This is a democratic site which is great, so I guess everyone from village idiot to Phd is free to make what takes their fancy – within reason.
However, if you see yourself as representative of the average Liberal voter, the Liberals are in deep trouble.
I will lay odds – if Labor should win the next Federal election – you will disappear from when you came. And, as I gather it, somewhere in Perth.
The MSM now playing the Chicken Little sky falling in on everyone crap with the economy under Labor.
A comment I read a few weeks ago that stuck with me went something along the lines of –
“Economic Issues” relate to issues that mainly affect white men, and are therefore treated as “Very Serious™”. Meanwhile issues relating to everyone else are treated as “Social Issues” and are therefore treated as “Lol, who cares?”
steve davissays:
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 10:19 pm
The MSM now playing the Chicken Little sky falling in on everyone crap with the economy under Labor.
—————–
Some of its journalists trying to act like ordinary people so they can’t say anything in their world is good.
In the USA military personnel swear allegiance to the constitution not the President.Really it’s a constitutional republic not a democracy.
So in theory the constitution is sovereign which in practice means the Supreme Court is sovereign, every contentious domestic issue ultimately ends up decided by the court.
So the aim of the game is to stack the court and the Democrats inability to defeat Trump in 2016 allowed him to do just that.
Losing to him again in 2024 gives Trump the opportunity to insure it remains stacked for a generation if he can convince a couple of the oldies to give it away.
So even if the Democrats win the white house and control congress in 2028 any progressive reforms will just killed off by the court.They are locked out for twenty years at least.
Journalists pretending to care about ordinary people makes me sick. Its all about the agenda they are told to push in whichever direction their bosses want them to.
Labor doesn’t really have much to stand on regarding their record in this term.
-A deliberately neutered NACC after teaming up with the Coalition
-An anaemic economy in per capita recession
-A cost of living crisis made worse by record levels of immigration and limited housing supply
-$360 billion dubiously committed to AUKUS
-Loss of the Voice referendum which looked like a distracting sideshow
It certainly hasn’t had the run of the green, but what it has done has not been sold that well, or been responsive to current challenges. There is a sense that the govt is directionless and mediocre. Labor’s best hope for re-election is that many think the Coalition is even less capable or prepared. An Albo v Dutton election is likely going to leave people very uninspired and probably less likely to vote for either major party it will be a question of who can wrangle enough crossbenchers from record low primary votes to then limp over the line for the prize of minority govt.
I think it’s in the interests of Labor to go to an election sooner rather than later, it gives less time for Dutton and the Coalition to put together and prosecute a coherent agenda as well as for third parties/independents to organise campaigns against incumbents. I think Labor will run a mostly negative anti-Dutton campaign, it’s unsightly but they don’t really have much else to go with.
steve davis:
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 10:30 pm
Journalists pretending to care about ordinary people makes me sick. Its all about the agenda they are told to push in whichever direction their bosses want them to.
————————
Yep fake empathy and some put on the act about how ordinary they are when they have nothing in common with ordinary people and it makes it harder for government because these people put their own interest first pushing back against government when it tries to do something.
Meanwhile Shane Wright embellishes his resume for a future career with Murdoch enterprises.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-terrible-set-of-numbers-for-a-treasurer-and-reserve-bank-governor-20241204-p5kvsy.html
Not that it matters, Nine SMH isn’t far off the Ruperts After Dark crew anyway.
MB
They push their bosses agenda and interests first because they have to. Otherwise they are out of door. Can you imagine Murdoch having a pro Labor agenda presenter on Sky after Dark? Pigs might fly.
They tell you how should feel or act. Be angry. Be sympathetic. And all the other emotions. Its all part of the brainwashing process.
Nadia88
Re Sturt
“ I think Stevens is in strife.”
————————————-
I have been saying this for a while. The results in recent elections and by-elections in state seats that are included in Sturt would all be sufficient to unseat Stevens if repeated at a Federal election.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 10:08 pm
Back to the Future and Trade Wars
___________________
So looping this back to the domestic electoral landscape, Albo is best to delay the election as possible (May), as unlike the prevailing wisdom, global trade war will be fantastic for Australia:
– the more things Trump block from China, a lot of it will be bought from us.
– China excess production will be dumped on the world, actually deflating prices for everyone not the US.
As such is the cruel irony of Australia – dumb luck and muddling through, surviving and thriving because everyone else is dumber than we are!
Goll at 9.53pm, good post.
With regard to your media landscape comment, the issue is quite serious for the ALP.
The 3 main east coast newspapers – the Herald Sun, Courier & Tele – day after day run negative storylines and fairytales 7 days a week. It goes on and on and on.
Ch9/Fairfax is literally an ALP no-go zone, and I notice that Ch.7 has now sharpened the pencils against the ALP too. The Age in Melbourne is almost more hostile to Jacinta Allan’s gov’t than the Herald Sun.
The ABC – to me – seems to have been overrun by Greens, who attack the ALP at every opportunity.
Note, the Libs barely even bother to front up at the ABC anymore.
David Spears is not a Green; but he’s usually dragged out to attack labor politicians.
On the other hand, Sarah Hanson Young was given a fairly soft interview the other week.
What Labor can do with this moving fwd – I just don’t know.
While I am skeptical of the idea of the Liberals losing Sturt at the next election (although, in the long term, it is a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’), if they did it would mean that nobody in the Adelaide metro area would be represented by a Federal Coalition member. Joining the likes of Hobart, Darwin and Canberra in the “Capital cities without a Federal Coalition member” club, with Melbourne and Perth being tantalisingly close as well.
Been There the stats don’t lie real disposable income is down 10% since 2021 current results are not delivering for ordinary people atm.
If the MSM started to say everything was looking really good and the economy was booming over and over again day after day, week after week, then people start to believe it even if its total shite. This is how Trump was elected. The perception of a USA economy being awful when the opposite was true was used to brainwash the apathetic voter into believing Trump will fix everything, and this is going to be used in the same way here to get Dutton elected. Its working to an extent so far too.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 10:50 pm
Nadia88
Re Sturt
“ I think Stevens is in strife.”
————————————-
I have been saying this for a while. The results in recent elections and by-elections in state seats that are included in Sturt would all be sufficient to unseat Stevens if repeated at a Federal election.
==========
Agreed Socrates. Looking like a 7/2/1 split in SA next election.
I’m just getting around to the electorates of interest bit by bit.
Nadia88
@10.53pm
The best post you have probably posted on here.
Evening Been There – we were only talking about you on the site yesterday too.
Catch up for a Newspoll (hopefully) this Sunday & maybe a Resolve Poll.
Then we can all have a bit of a breather until late Jan I suppose.
People feel like they’re going backwards it doesn’t matter much what the media is saying or not. Outside of here there’s not a lot regularly reading/watching mainstream media.
One piece of advice I’d give to Labor to punch through is have Dan Repacholi have an interview with Isaac Butterfield.
They’re both giant down-to-earth blokes based around Newcastle, Repacholi is an elected Labor MP that does great on social media, Butterfield has over 2 million subscribers and mainly does the manosphere thing of bitching against wokeness. Have them do a good interview and that could work wonders for Labor in this field.
Neel Kolhatkar and Friendlyjordies are other good Australian youtubers that Labor can reach out towards that ignore the hypocritical wankers in the Murdoch-Fairfax-ABC press.
Shorter PB; catch you on the flip side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ac4E_UsmB1g
Been There, I have referenced Wright over recent days due to the abject rubbish published under his name in regards Bullock and her address to the CEDA annual dinner in Sydney last week
To say he could not lay straight in bed is a monumental understatement He is beneath contempt
The reputation of media goes with him – and he has had other “form” this week (since CEDA) – as has 9 Entertainment
And speaking of form, they are partying at Happy Valley for the jockeys Championship – and thank you, David!!!!
I am sitting a little higher in the seat – and good odds as well
One problem with not buying papers is that there is no paper for the bottom of bird cage – so my dear wife has an advertising brochure of plenty of pages from JB Hifi
My sense of humour would be tickled by the bird decorating an MSM publication
And what the ALP can do is call it out – not Albanese or a Minister but someone with good presentation from the backbench – the senior MP’s staying clear and just laughing
Mind you, no one I know (and that is plenty) subscribe to MSM our conversation over evading including TV news services
Mj
Thats exactly what the MSM want and want and want them to keep the feeling that they are going backwards. I will bet a pound to a penny if Dutton gets elected it will all suddenly turn positive. Optimism will abound. COL crisis and similar headlines will disappear like a David Copperfield act.
Conspiracy theories on here about the messengers aka media telling it as it is!
Own goals by fed labor.
Evening Nadia
I gave you a hello yesterday afternoon but you may have missed it in the traffic here, pretty busy here yesterday.
Sign of something going on, or some wanting and hoping for something going on.
Me?
Election in May, comfortable Labor majority and Liberals to lose more seats to Teals and Independents.
Any LNP gains will be offset by the above.
I wonder how many besides myself think that’s a silly thing to say.
The facts just don’t substantiate your statement.
That’s a statement appealing to low information, low intelligence.
My immediate counter to your statement is that Labor has done remarkably well considering the deficit, the longevity of previous LNP financial commitments, the trade relationship with China, the establishment of the NCCC, the relationships with Pacific neighbours, the relationship with Indonesia the progression of the grid restructure, the bedding down of AUKUS after such a “devil may care” Morrison government brainwave and others.
The press/media don’t do balance.
The ABC no longer knows what it does!
Low information types don’t go beyond the headlines.
The “voice” established the enormity of the task required to “right the wrongs”, even thou it got a belting.
Australia is in a far better place as a result of the success at the last election of the Greens, the Teals and Labor
.I don’t expect everyone to agree with me and I certainly don’t expect to make “front pages”.
But I do believe I’ve been proven correct by the success of Labor
And I believe Morrison proved me correct.
The Queensland throwback will very quickly assume the poignancy of a dead fish.
The NT over reaction to “third world” reality will have the voters “stuck in a lift” very quickly.
Eric Abetz in the Tassie oven will overcook in record time.
Tassie has an asset for the ages and the Neanderthals want to wood chip it.
I’d hesitate when making definitive, obviously misleading “motherhood statements”.
They are a good dessert but play havoc with your health.
“Conspiracy theories on here about the messengers aka media telling it as it is!”
The problem is driveby, is you believe RWNJ papers, especially that toilet paper called the West.
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 11:16 pm
You give relevance to all I say!
Goll you can dismiss it as low information/intelligence, but this government has not been proactive in a way you’d expect a Labor govt to be.
I appreciate it is constrained by global economic factors, but it also doesn’t come across as a particularly gifted govt in its own right.
It has performed relatively well in foreign relations, the NACC however is useless. Domestically I can’t see what this govt has improved.
Those thinking a comfortable Labor majority is on the offing are deluded.
And describe exactly what entrenched and rising inflation delivers
This is why, these days, Central Banks have a target for inflation (so post Volker, the architect of using interest rates to attack inflation)
Volker inflicted plenty of pain (also globally) but set in concrete how you respond to inflation – witness today
It is akin to cutting out cancer cells versus not – the cancer then killing you, it uncontrolled and spreading to other organs so the body collapsing
This needs to be explained – and pushed.
I recall appointing to a Company many years ago – the Director saying “give me one more look at inflation I will not mess it up next time”
I informed him that you made money from performance and discipline – not courtesy of inflation
Never saw him again
And pp, I refer to Wright and the CEDA event, so FACT
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 11:16 pm
Conspiracy theories on here about the messengers aka media telling it as it is!
Own goals by fed labor.
——————
Some media personalities put on i’m an ordinary joe act but its rubbish.
MB
Radio talk show hosts are the same. Look how much people like Laws, Hadley, Jones, and many others who pretend to be on struggle street while pocketing millions of dollars for mostly talking right wing bollocks on their shows.
Hadley $9 million contract in 2023.
mj
I’ll leave that for another time
The criticism Boerwar receives from some is more than compensated by his comprehensive, inclusive and considerable lists.
The anti Labor mob can’t win against the facts so they yell and convolute.
The Albanese government even without winning another term will be remembered as a reformative government
The LNP supporters are still hurting and the attempted assassination of the Labor government is not progressing as hoped.
The LNP are looking at an inglorious defeat with a not so complementary report card.
The nuclear elective is a disaster!
The NCCC exists and its relevance is endorsed by the LNP insistance not to “grandfather” and threat to abolish it.
If nothing else the NCCC is good for checks and balances.
Its legislated structure is not good but can be improved.
Labor’s most dangerous enemy is falling house prices.
Johnnie Eyebrows was very aware of that threat !
goll
The Albanese government even without winning another term will be remembered as a reformative government
———————
Nup but it could become one.
Seven consecutive quarter of negative GDP per capita isn’t a great record. Kind of hard to argue Albo has done a great job with the economy.
And Husic comes out and says they have greatly underinvested in R and D. Of course the answer is to get four people to do a review that takes 12 months. Because the 10,000 public servant he employs just aren’t good enough.