With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
@Democracy Sausage
I reckon Pete Buttigieg for the time being would be better off running for an elected office bigger than Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Mainly to prove his credentials in political campaigning.
Most fitting would probably be for a House seat in Indiana that’s winnable for the Democrats. Then from there he can have a strong enough electoral record to be a Presidential candidate.
Democracy Sausage,
I have a different opinion about choosing Josh Shapiro. I think that by not choosing him it shows that they aren’t going to make the cynical political choice for the Electoral Votes that Pennsylvania can deliver but instead campaign for them legitimately.
I honestly think that Josh Shapiro is still a bit green and needs more time to mature as a politician.
Trump’s mother was a Scot from the Outer Hebrides. I knew that because she came from the same village as a friend of mine.
Bully for you.
People from the Isle of Jura are Scottish by nationality, ethnically they’re Scandinavian.
Yeah, an Internet search might have told you that, if you’d bothered, which you obviously didn’t.
Are you incapable of getting factual information right? Believe me, Wikipedia can be an enormous help. You should try using it before you post. Saves embarrassment.
You didn’t get anything right about Trump’s mother, perhaps take your own advice?
Badthinker,
You don’t get to make your own facts. Scotland is not a Scandinavian country, even if there may be some overlap historically.
That’s your right but please don’t attempt to foist your opinions on others.
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Wow.
I’ll foist my opinion on this blog until William tells/asks me not to. Please dont foist your opinion on me that I can’t foist my opinion.
Is a foisting contest akin to a jousting contest? 😀
Jura is quite isolated. There are no permanent police. A little over a decade ago there were six officers on Islay and they would catch a ferry every so often up to Jura for a look see. I just had a google and there is a special constable i.e. a volunteer.
TK:
Feel free to foist your opinion whenever you feel necessary.
I’ll get my jousting sticks.
Jousting sticks wouldnt come up often, how much is he asking?
$400
Tell him he’s dreaming.
Can’t help it….. I simply must….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WK9h4gRXX9o
Tell Team Katich he is dreaming.
When I watched I thought, what is the best wood for jousting sticks? I suppose I could google it these days.
Kirsdarke – Pete Buttigieg now lives in Michigan, he moved there from Indiana a couple of years ago, so of course he could run for a house or senate seat in that state in future if he wanted to.
As for Josh Shapiro, this idea that he is inexperienced when it comes to national politics is baloney – former state Attorney General, won the Governership in 2022 with 56% of the vote, he is great on the stump too.
Tim Walz might be warm and folksy and he isn’t Jewish, which seems to be a no no in the DNC at present, but he does little for me really, just a nice guy and little else.
If Shapiro has been passed over for purely anti-Semitic reasons, that is shameful. Enough of cowtowing to the Muslim vote.
Harris should pick whichever of the qualified candidates that will bring the most energy to the campaign trail.
On the fact of it, that would be Josh Shapiro but rumours abound Tim Waltz will be chosen.
Yes. Please stop calling them “jousting sticks”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance
Pueo says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 10:18 pm
“When I watched I thought, what is the best wood for jousting sticks? I suppose I could google it these days.”
Yes. Please stop calling them “jousting sticks”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance
__________
Touché!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozpek_FrOPs
Trump won in ’16 on the strength of the German Vote.
Brandon won in ’20 because he’s mostly English and got the Anglo vote out.
Trump has counterd that in ’24 by picking Vance.
Now Shapiro doesn’t bring any Tribes with him, Jews mostly vote Democrat anyway and mostly live in Blue States.
So it’s got to be Walz.
Yeah, he’s ugly and stupid, but he’s 100% Hun, 17% of Americans have German heritage, close to 60 million people.
It’s not Rocket Science.
@Democracy Sausage at 10:14pm
I see, that could be the next step up for Pete. Current Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited and will have to step down in 2026, so he’d be in a prime seat for being elected as her successor.
Badthinker
What are you on about, voters picking their President based on the VP ancestry / ‘nationality’?
You got some polling on this?
I saw a piece from Chuck Todd today that posited that in demographic terms he thought that Walz being in the National Reserves would give more votes across the region rather than worrying about one state.
Later in the same piece though Steve Kornacki showed the path to 270 is widened significantly if the Dems win Pennsylvania.
Decisions, decisions…so
Shapiro for me has a number of cons but if it means a combination of Harris, Shapiro (and Biden) can win there then it is massive.
Shapiro will also allow Harris to speak more openly about the “two states” being responsible for peace as a two part act. Then using Whitmer’s popularity in Michigan to help the campaign there. It’s a tightrope but if both of those go to the Dems then the electoral college map explodes across the “Sunshine belt” states.
I’m not entirely convinced myself even after writing all that but if she has a good rapport with Shapiro then I’d go that way.
Latest on Shapiro as A/G, 22 hours ago:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/12113883/ellen-greenberg-case-appeal-josh-shapiro/
Perhaps there’s some skeletons in the Walz closet too, but the Ellen Greenberg story will suck all the air out of the Harris Campaign if she picks Shapiro.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 10:29 pm
Yeah, he’s ugly and stupid, but he’s 100% Hun, 17% of Americans have German heritage, close to 60 million people.
It’s not Rocket Science.
==================================================
It doesn’t surprise me that you are someone that judges people by their outside appearance.
Yet another weird thing that the far-right does, send in their DNA samples to places like Ancestry.com and make it so the numbers they get in return about what % race they are dictate their lots in life.
You semt a sample away to Ancestry.com, Kirsdarke?
How ‘Right Wing’ of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnFzCmAyOp8
Of course whoever Harris chooses will wipe the floor with JD Vance, that is a given.
I can see Walz would be useful at winning over those working class white men in the Midwest states, and he has the requisite all American wife and two cute teenage kids.
If that is her selection, it tells me that she is going for a narrow electoral college victory based on retaining 3 Midwest states Biden won back from Trump in 2020, and maybe they can win Georgia again too if African American turnout is high. Arizona and Nevada might be more problematic this time.
As for vulnerable Democrat Senators, the two biggest are Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana.
Badthinker @ #1025 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 10:53 pm
No I didn’t.
Morning Joe(MSNBC)
Harris has decided o a runnin mate. Announcement expected at any moment
Shapiro told reporters yesterday that he will attend Harris rally in Philadelphia on tuesday
Walz it is!!!!
Claire Mccaskill: Walz is joyful warrior. Folksy.
Josh Shapiro now has to turn up to the rally tonight and fake his enthusiasm for Tim Walz, that should be amusing.
My question about Walz – how does he help get out the youth vote, how does he get out the Latino vote? Does he appeal to white suburban women?
I think it is a very safe and boring choice from Kamala Harris, about as bland as Hillary teaming up with Tim Kaine in 2016. Buttigieg or Beshear to me would have been far more radical selections.
I tried to tell you, but you wouldn’t listen.
Just look at this old commercial. Tim Walz is fun, even if his daughter Hope is rolling her eyes and being like “Ugh, dad…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S233kqP0ak8
”
Democracy Sausagesays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:17 pm
Josh Shapiro now has to turn up to the rally tonight and fake his enthusiasm for Tim Walz, that should be amusing.
My question about Walz – how does he help get out the youth vote, how does he get out the Latino vote? Does he appeal to white suburban women?
I think it is a very safe and boring choice from Kamala Harris, about as bland as Hillary teaming up with Tim Kaine in 2016. Buttigieg or Beshear to me would have been far more radical selections
”
DS
It shows that you don’t know much about Walz
I posted earlier this
” it seems he won 5 tiimes to US HOR 5 times from rual electorate in Minnesota.
Wiki: Timothy James Walz (/wɔːlz/ WAWLZ; born April 6, 1964) is an American politician, former U.S. Army non-commissioned officer, and retired educator who has served since 2019 as the 41st governor of Minnesota. A member of the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), he was a member of the United States House of Representatives representing Minnesota’s 1st congressional district from 2007 to 2019.
“He was elected to the United States House of Representatives for Minnesota’s 1st congressional district in 2006, defeating six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht. He was reelected five times, retiring in 2019 after being elected governor. ”
“Minnesota’s 1st congressional district extends across southern Minnesota from the border with South Dakota to the border with Wisconsin. It is a primarily rural district built on a strong history of agriculture, though this is changing rapidly due to strong population growth in the Rochester combined statistical area. The district is also home to several of Minnesota’s major mid-sized cities, including Rochester, Mankato, Winona, Austin, Owatonna, Albert Lea, Red Wing, New Ulm, Worthington, and Lake City. It is represented by Republican Brad Finstad.”
Harris-Walz, eh? OK. Let’s see if the Dems can show the same solidarity backing Walz as they’ve shown getting behind Harris. And I still think (without evidence) that getting everyone (who counts) lined up for the announcement is actually what has been going on this past week, the decision having been made shortly after the “weird” meme took off.
“Corndog?”
“I’m vegetarian.”
“Turkey, then.”
“Turkey’s meat.”
“Not in Minnesota.”
As per CNBC, Minnesota is 6th friendly state to do business
Walz was the one of the top three that nobody in the Democratic coalition has much of a problem with – teachers and pro-Palestinians didn’t like Shapiro and unions didn’t like Kelly, but I haven’t actually heard anyone much with a problem with Walz apart from vague handwaving about him being a mainstream progressive.
Can’t see there being much of a problem bringing the party together behind him.
I think Rust Belt Democrats across all levels of government will be breathing a bit easier now, because he was always going to be the most useful of the three at actually selling a Harris ticket in their communities.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 10:58 pm
Badthinker @ #1025 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 10:53 pm
You semt a sample away to Ancestry.com, Kirsdarke?
How ‘Right Wing’ of you.
——————————————–
No I didn’t.
=================================================
Badthinker has no comprehension skills. He read your comment on right wingers and ancestry DNA testing. Somehow concluding from it that you had a DNA test as well. That’s pretty weird.
Disclosure: To celebrate Walz as the next VP i wanted an excuse to call someone weird.
Info on Gwen Walz:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics/wife-tim-gwen-walz-family/index.html
This interview from a week ago seems quite striking to me as to what Walz brings to the table in campaigning to precisely the voters Harris needs most help with: https://archive.md/yxk7q.
“Of course whoever Harris chooses will wipe the floor with JD Vance, that is a given.”
Seems rather over-confident when we don’t really know either of the guys yet!
“Morning Joe” reports on Harris’s choice of Walz:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFqkftBIeCc
Rebecca
I think you’re right that Walz will keep the Dems unified – not that everyone will agree or be totally happy with Walz, but those that might not be have the savvy not to make that public.
Whereas the more leftwing types opposed to Shapiro – pro-Palestinians and the like – have shown over and over that they will shout their displeasure regardless of whether it is self-destructive or harmful to their party. Or, putting it another way, their loyalty to the party is lower and so they’re less about the team and more about their opinions, which are apparently more important than anyone else’s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ez19iQMirzE&ab_channel=KeithEdwards
BTSays
The Trump supporter that tries to hide behind the blanket of pretended neutrality that this is a psephology only blog.
I’m awake to you, my friend.
@Been There
You’re talking piffle. Making silly accusations (so what if it were true anyway? – this site’s about psephology not waving flags) isn’t any way to make friends regardless of what you call me.
Sorry to be grumpy but I’ve been through all this before. Time these threads got elevated above playground level.
So it’s official . . . Kamala Harris and John Howard. 🙂
The world’s oddest political couple?