Polls: Essential Research, Roy Morgan and more (open thread)

One pollster finds undecided voters jumping off the fence, another finds a Labor slump last week was a one-off, and others yet offer insights on international affairs and things in general.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has all the main players up on the primary vote, with the Coalition up two to 36%, Labor up one to 32% and the Greens recovering the three points they lost last time to return to 13%. Room is made for this by a two-point drop in the undecided component to 4% and a three point drop for One Nation to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor and the Coalition tied on 48%, with the balance undecided, after the Coalition led 47% to 46% last time. The monthly leadership ratings record little change for Anthony Albanese, steady on 43% approval and down one on disapproval to 47%, while Peter Dutton is down three on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 42%.

An occasional reading of national mood records a slight improvement on April, with 34% thinking the country headed on the right track, up two, compared with 49% for the wrong track, down one. Also featured are a series of questions on artificial intelligence and one on the impact of large technology companies, with 47% thinking them mostly negative for young people compared with 19% for positive, and 68% supporting an increase in the age limit on social media platforms from 13 to 16. Sixty-two per cent supported making hate speech a criminal offence with only 16% opposed, and 50% supported a weekend a month of national service for eighteen year olds consisting of paid full-time military placement, with 25% opposed, reducing to 46% and 26% for unpaid volunteer work. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1160.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll reverses a dip for Labor last week, their primary vote up two-and-a-half points to 31% with the Coalition down a point to 36%, the Greens down one to 14% and One Nation down one-and-a-half points to 4.5%. Labor now leads 52-48 on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, after trailing 51.5-48.5 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1579.

Also out this week is the Lowy Institute’s annual poll focusing on international issues, which affirms last year’s finding that Japan, the United Kingdom and France are trusted to act responsibly in the world, the United States, India and Indonesia a little less so, and China and Russia not at all. Joe Biden’s net rating turned negative, 46% expressing confidence, down thirteen on a year ago, and 50% lack of confidence, up twelve. Enthusiasm for Volodomyr Zelenskyy was off its earlier high, confidence down twelve to 60% and lack of confidence up seven to 29%, though this notably compares with 7% and 88% for Vladimir Putin, while Xi Zinping was at 12% and 75%. Fifty-six per cent rated the government as doing a good job on foreign policy compared with 41% for poor. The survey was conducted March 4 to 17 from a sample of 2028.

JWS Research’s quarterly-or-so True Issues issue salience report finds little change in the most important issues since February, with cost of living one of five issues nominated by 80% of respondents, well ahead of health on 58% and housing and interest rates on 55%. Nineteen per cent rated that the economy was heading in the right direction, unchanged on February, compared with 40% for the wrong direction, up one. An index score of the Albanese government’s performance records a two-point improvement to 47% after its lowest result to date in February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,184 comments on “Polls: Essential Research, Roy Morgan and more (open thread)”

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  1. On the topic of violent/non violent protest, I want one example, just one example, of where protests that no way inconvenienced people actually made systemic changes

  2. ‘Lordbain says:
    Friday, June 7, 2024 at 8:51 pm

    Textbook definition for Nicholas.

    And classic response from BW – instead of engaging with D and M on the point they raised (society still pressuring the care of children on the female family members) BW feels the need to exclaim not me… not all men ‘
    Jesus Lordbain you are pathetic when you put your mind to it.

    Sometimes I do more than 18 hours a week.

    Why? Because I want to help the parents and I want to give the grandchildren enough love to last them for the rest of their lives.

    I have also spent a quarter of my life being poor and/or homeless according to the ABS definitions. The problem with that? I didn’t even realize it at the time!

    I have also had a disability for the last half century or so. The problem with that? I worked my life around it.

    I have been a war refugee. I have been a political refugee. I even rate as a NESB.

    The clue to happiness?

    Don’t whinge. Don’t feel sorry for yourself. Just get on with it.

    Another clue to happiness?

    Don’t be thinking about yourself all the time. Be thinking and doing for others.

  3. ‘Lordbain says:
    Friday, June 7, 2024 at 9:03 pm

    On the topic of violent/non violent protest, I want one example, just one example, of where protests that no way inconvenienced people actually made systemic changes’
    Damn right! Those electorate office employees should be proud to be taking one for Lordbain’s team!

  4. Guess what BW, with the exception of being a political refugee, that all applies to myself, and I would suspect multiple other posters.

    Also the idea that you think about others policy wise is amusing considering how you rail against, and this list is only the top hits… teachers, parents, health care professionals, the disabled, children from low income families and environmentalists when it comes to funding and support, but always have an open pocket book for the military.

    And heres a hint… the clue to happiness is leaving the world a better place for those who come after us… and this is not done by “just getting on with it”. its done by making changes for the better.

    And here comes BW lying about what i said again… I was asking for those complaining about protests and picket lines being “non violent” to provide an example of when their definition of non violent (ie, portests that inconvnence no1 at all) have actually worked.

  5. ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, June 7, 2024 at 8:56 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, June 7, 2024 at 8:49 pm

    I am a man. I do a minimum of 18 hours of child care a week.

    Big apoloies. My lovely (male) OH does the same.

    I was thinking more of some of the shit I have got over the last few days about not being “woke” enough.’
    No worries. We had a period in our lives when I was the house husband and my OH was the earner. (This was back in the day when this sort of arrangement was only a distant dream for most women.) So I took the kids into pre school and the like. It was a country town. The preschool mothers had their annual do and I was excluded. I called them and said, hey, what about it? They were too frightened to invite me to the do because of what their husbands would say.
    We live and learn.

  6. Dog’s Brunch @ #1156 Friday, June 7th, 2024 – 9:08 pm

    I see Fabio Coatsworth has a new gig at 9 Fax along with Tracy Grimshaw. That’ll be a keeper!

    And again he’ll be as useful as tits on a bull. I still remember how he just ran Morrison government lines during the pandemic, right or wrong. I think there’s a very good reason the Liberals haven’t found a seat for him yet.

  7. I think it’s important that this message from the Leader of the House, Tony Bourke, is put up here. Because the truth matters:

    5. The Greens Party

    On Wednesday there was a question from the crossbench to the PM about anti-semitism, bigotry and the safety of electorate officers. Electorate officers are at the frontline of helping vulnerable people in our communities, whether it’s with immigration, social security or the NDIS. It’s really important work. There’s been real concern about what the Greens Party are doing with a series of protests at different offices – some of which have become violent. The PM in responding to the question made clear that people do have a right to peaceful protest – and for the horrors we’re seeing in the conflict in the Middle East there will of course be peaceful protest. That’s important in a democracy. But the issue of staff who are there to help pensioners, people with visa issues or the NDIS being threatened, intimidated or stopped from getting into their work – there was a really important drawing of the line on Wednesday. Subsequent to the PM making that point the Greens Party moved a motion about the conflict. These motions are being moved every week by the Greens Party and we’ve been letting them run. But last week when a motion was moved it was purported to have been a resolution as to whether or not the Palestinian state should be recognised. That was not what was before the Parliament and the Greens Party – for reasons I will never understand – promoted it as though it was, which meant there were stories in Australia and around the world that claimed there had been a setback for the cause of Palestinian recognition. What we decided to do this week was to make sure that motions like that – we’re not putting them to the vote anymore. We’ll simply move that the debate be adjourned. There has been a whole lot of misinformation, which is particularly dangerous because it goes against the cause of the Palestinian people. The Greens Party also have been spreading misinformation with claims of weapons being sent from Australia to Israel. It’s not happening. The misinformation is understandably inflaming people. Yes there is a difference of opinion and yes there will be people speaking in a forthright manner, but hopefully when the Parliament next sits we can be dealing with facts and not misinformation.

  8. Don’t be thinking about yourself all the time. Be thinking and doing for others.

    Your perspectives on public policy are extremely self-absorbed. You invariably make the issue all about you – about what you went through, what suits your taste, what makes your socks roll up and down. It would be nice if you could become more other-focused with regard to policy and politics and less solipsistic.

  9. Burke calls for facts to be used… while using misinformation about violent protests being led by the Greens, by Labor voting against recognition (hardly a supportive move), and downplaying how Aus tax payer funds have “somehow” ended up with Israeli military firms.

    Good job

  10. Leapt or leaped?

    Nine live commentators re NRL.

    I’m watching live and they have no basic understanding of the English.

    Their little argument about it was embarrassing.

    I know the correct, anyone else’s thoughts?

  11. English irregular verbs are rapidly being regularised.
    I haven’t heard that one but recently heard winded instead of wound.

  12. Some advice to those out there who don’t want get banned without a flicker of hesitation on my part. If you find yourself getting your comment chopped, take it on the chin like a grown-up and move on. I have neither the obligation nor the motivation to put up with one skerrick of the stupid and immature bullshit that some of you want to subject me to.

  13. P1:”Your figures are out of date. As is your thinking.”

    You deflect. It is not the exact number that is the issue. The point is that the world’s population will increase by billions.

    By advocating not opening new coal mines or gas/oil wells, you will deny these extra billions of people the benefits of fossil fuels that we all enjoy now.

  14. Leader, considering those people will be likely those disproportionately effected by climate change… its not exactly all benefits

  15. Lordbain,

    Jog on, Champ.

    The unfortunate thing about our electoral system is it encourages irrelevant oxygen thieves to think that their opinions matter when they don’t.

  16. I just watched on MSNBC a discussion on book “The Forever war – The unending war with itself’ written by Nick Bryant.

    Nick Bryant raised many points I discussed about America.
    Probably I will buy that book and read it.

    He said that although Americans won against British and declared Independence, the democracy was weak because the founders put it in a straight jacket and it took another 50 years for American identify to be established. Then America had Civil war because American South wanted to be a different country to continue with slavery.

  17. FUBARsays:
    Friday, June 7, 2024 at 10:43 pm

    Jog on, Champ.

    The unfortunate thing about our electoral system is it encourages irrelevant oxygen thieves to think that their opinions matter when they don’t.
    Friday, June 7, 2024 at 10:45 pm
    Which comment have you taken offence to now FUBAR…

    My reading of it is he takes offence at you believing you even have a right to post any comment. I assume under a FUBAR dictatorship this would be quickly remedied though.

  18. Socrates says Friday, June 7, 2024 at 12:30 am

    If that is true then Labor has failed on the NACC. Introducing another toothless investigator in the tradition of ASIC will do nothing to lift standards.

    Albo campaigned for election in 2022 on cleaning up Canberra. This fails that promise IMO.

    To put it in words Labor might understand, this will cost votes.

    It’s the same as a Royal Commission. RCs have the power to investigate, and they have coercive powers to force people to testify. However, they are not prosecutors. Think of NACC and similar state bodies as standing Royal Commissions into corruption.

    People should be held accountable for Robodebt. However, the only contribution the NACC would likely make is to delay action taken by others

  19. “Dutton puts carbon target on ALP’s back
    Peter Dutton will oppose Labor’s 43 per cent carbon emissions reduction target by 2030 at the next election, warning it is unachievable and will destroy industries like agriculture.” (The Oz)

    Back to the same old Liberal shit we have heard for years. They never change.

  20. bc

    People should be held accountable for Robodebt. However, the only contribution the NACC would likely make is to delay action taken by others.

    Too right!!

  21. Douglas and Milko at 8.07 pm

    Very good link to Gene Sharp’s classic 1973 book on the politics of non-violent protest.

    That was a key text for the peace movement in the 1980s, when it was larger and more influential than since 1989.

    The historical lessons are clear. Any opposition movement that turns violent is doomed. The clearest example was Syria. The shift to armed struggle helped Assad retain power, along with Putin’s brutal intervention.

    While there was an armed aspect of the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa, that was not in any way decisive.

    Another case is the feminist rallies in Iran in 2022, which were hard for the regime to suppress because non-violent.

    Sharp’s book is available in Russian. Though most of the actions he mentions would not be feasible there, because of the extreme nature of repression, there was a powerful expression of non-violent protest at Navalny’s funeral in February.

    One difference from 1973 is that horizontal links between similar movements in various countries are often stronger. That was a key factor in the eventual demise of apartheid.

  22. Robodebt and the Liberal Party’s “Scotty” is a real expression of the contempt recent Australian politicians have for us punters.

    If under this Government no criminal action is taken against the perpetrators of Robodebt we will know, sadly, it is also another contemptible Government that despises us.

    Albo as Scotty mark 2.

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