The latest federal poll from RedBridge Group has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, as compared with 51.2-48.8 at the last such poll in early February. The primary votes are Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (not specified previously). The full release offers detailed demographic breakdowns and much else besides. Interestingly, both Labor and Coalition voters who report being in financial stress also report being less firm in their voting intention. Questions on immigration include a finding that 72% believe the current rate is making housing less affordable for young people, with only 16% disagreeing, and similar results for the proposition that “Australian cities are too crowded”. The poll was conducted April 12 to 21 from a sample of 1529.
The Courier-Mail also published a finding on Saturday from the YouGov Queensland poll that a preferred prime minister question showed Peter Dutton leading Anthony Albanese 45-37, comparing favourably with the 41-41 result from the January-to-March Newspoll breakdown.
Boerwar @ #1580 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 8:28 pm
But a woman is being killed every four days TODAY!
Why try to lessen the importance of this statistic by comparing to years gone by?
I’m not disputing Boerwar’s statistics. I’m simply asking why try to lessen the reality of today’s statistics which are just as shocking.
frednksays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 9:05 pm
No-one seems to be disputing Boerwar’s statistics. If the murder rate has halved shouldn’t we be asking what worked?
======================================================
As i posted earlier we probably need to fund more research on that. To evaluate what has worked in the past. To evaluate current programs and to see what elsewhere in the world has worked too.
@Holdenhillbilly at 8:54pm
Understandable too. Ever since I watched this video, the idea of a plane flying through the ash of an erupting volcano has been horrifying, namely British Airways Flight 9.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFChgSJ_qB0
Does Albotross to get to call China, Japan, India and Russia xenophobic? (Which is just another word for racist in the context).
Ven @ #1600 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 9:07 pm
Well, you are entitled to your opinion, however silly it may be.
Fortunately, Australia will never, ever be a nuclear power.
Not under “cranky pants” Albo or anyone else.
Thank goodness.
looked it up..
Murder rate 1990 2.19 per 100000, in 2021 it was 0.71 per 100,000
bwahahahahah ‘Albotross’… ‘crankypants’ golly that is just so adult of you er adults…
FUBARsays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 9:11 pm
Does Albotross to get to call China, Japan, India and Russia xenophobic? (Which is just another word for racist in the context).
==================================================
I’m sure FUD loving Dutton is just chomping on the bit to do just that. Possibly bought himself a new dog whistle for the occasion.
‘frednk says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 9:14 pm
looked it up..
Murder rate 1990 2.19 per 100000, in 2021 it was 0.71 per 100,000
————————-
The interesting thing is, from memory, that the rate for murdered men has declined roughly in line with that of DV murder rate of women. One man a day would be being murdered if we were still stuck in the 1980 rate.
Getting this sort of persistent positive trend in any social issue is, IMO, quite unusual. Generally getting such trend outcomes are more or less totally intractable.
The reality is that Prime Minister Albanese and Foreign Minister Wong have done a remarkably good job of pulling Prime Minister Morrison’s foreign policy irons out of the fire.
Ven
“ US President Joe Biden railed against India, China, Japan and Russia and called them “xenophobic” because they didn’t “accept immigrants”. The American president said it was “xenophobia” that was hobbling their growth.”
That is a pretty curious line of criticism from a country with a wall along its southern border. There are elements of truth to Biden’s comment, but only elements. And it is a provocative thing to say, asking for trouble.
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 9:18 pm
‘frednk says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 9:14 pm
looked it up..
Murder rate 1990 2.19 per 100000, in 2021 it was 0.71 per 100,000
————————-
The interesting thing is, from memory, that the rate for murdered men has declined roughly in line with that of DV murder rate of women. One man a day would be being murdered if we were still stuck in the 1980 rate.
Getting this sort of persistent positive trend in any social issue is, IMO, quite unusual. Generally such trends are more or less totally intractable.
=====================================================
Forensics are a lot better now. So it might not be behavioural change. It might be because people realise they are less likely to get away with it now. Thanks mainly to DNA technology that wasn’t around or in its infancy in 1990.
The Liberal Cheer Squad are on a hiding to nothing handing out nick names for Albanese….
The name Dutton has much more scope for a send up…………Obviously “Dead as…………” (no, not as a dodo) comes up without even thinking…………
And I am too much of a gentleman to suggest what some could do with the Susan’s surname if they so decided to do so……
What goes around comes around I guess…..
I think the polite name for all this stuff is sobriquet ……………………………….
This is yet more deflection.
Look, I understand and appreciate that the unacceptably high rate of femicide today makes some of you uncomfortable.
Please be assured that we as women are not blaming you specifically for the behaviours of your brethren.
All we are asking is that you don’t try to hide or shield the behaviour of your brethren behind statistics from 30-50 years ago, or behind overall national murder statistics which include male : male violence and other violent acts which are not specifically male : female violence.
I have. I own a copy. That’s the basis of my opinion.
This is what the fuss is about.
The findings of the report confirm through state and territory police offence records and coronial records that female IPH increased by 28%, from 0.25 homicides per 100,000 in 2021–22, to 0.32 per 100,000 in 2022–23.
It is an increase of 11 people.
Here is the data:
https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/tandi124.pdf
2/3 of murder by men is other men, 1/3 women. As women are half the populations women actually get off pretty well.
In the case of killing women. Most murder is by men (93.8%).
Home (69.8%) , desertion(29.4%) or Altercation ( 43.7%), White (75.3%) , offender has not been drinking (68.7%) – that was a surprise, intimate (57,6%).
As is the case with homicide the rate of femicide is falling. Why the uptick last year, whispers quietly, covid.
One of the reasons for the reduction in murders in Australia is that there are less guns owned by individuals and that semi-automatic rifles, semi-automatic and pump action shotguns were banned. This was due to John Howard pushing through gun ownership reforms in the late 1990’s.
Men need to do and be better. End of.
@sealion 9.55pm.
Howard was otherwise lamentable, but I will be forever grateful to him for the gun bans and buybacks.
On that one I say – well done, Sir.
Confessions
I have gone to the trouble of looking at the data.
22/23. There were 234 murders, 75 were women.
Couldn’t find the 22/23 statistics but in 20/21, 131 people died falling from bed or chair. 353 died from falling over.
Why no campaign to saw the legs of beds and chairs?
@Ven:
“If as Defence review says that Australia will be attacked within 3 years, then no other military hardware can deter the attackers than Nuclear weapons as far as I can see.”
___
No defence review says that “Australia will be attacked within 3 years” (leaving aside the ongoing threats from terrorism and terrorism like acts).
It turns out that “The threat” is that the FUBAR like fuckwits within the Canberra Defence and Security establishment are positively tripping over themselves to volunteer us for mass slaughter in the Straits of Taiwan if America and China decide to throw down against each other.
A potential affair which is just not our strategic concern: at least not for ‘frontline’ duties.
However, IMO there IS a strong case for ensuring the safety of certain comms bases in the NT and WA as part of both a ‘Defence of Australia’ military doctrine and some sort of mutual defence alliance. Neither of which would entail australia obtaining nuclear weapons (but air-missile defence systems, long range naval strike weapons, a fully integrated ITSAR network to support A2-AD operations out past the first barrier chain of archipelagos that surround the northern approaches past Australia’s air-sea gap ARE required. Urgently).
That sounds very profound, until you start wondering what it actually means. Then it just sounds like a useless platitude.
I thought Boerwar’s point was that we should focus on what it is that has worked to bring down the rates of homicide and domestic violence and redouble our efforts either on those successful strategies or figure out why those strategies haven’t been even more successful.
He has said, rightly, that the steps announced by the Albanese government are not a ‘start’ to addressing unacceptably high levels of homicide and domestic violence, but the latest in an ongoing endeavour (albeit not consistently or sufficiently pursued).
At least, that’s what I thought I read from him and if that’s right I don’t think it’s deflection.
I note that the steps supported by advocates for more intensive action include removing the presumption of bail for alleged perpetrators, controlling violent pornography, reducing access to gambling, and reducing access to alcohol.
I’d be interested in hearing what Bludgers think about those proposed solutions, far more interested than in what appears to be a merry-go-round argument about something that everyone here agrees: the rates of homicide and domestic violence in Australia are too high and more needs to be done to reduce them.
”
Socratessays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 9:26 pm
Ven
“ US President Joe Biden railed against India, China, Japan and Russia and called them “xenophobic” because they didn’t “accept immigrants”. The American president said it was “xenophobia” that was hobbling their growth.”
That is a pretty curious line of criticism from a country with a wall along its southern border. There are elements of truth to Biden’s comment, but only elements. And it is a provocative thing to say, asking for trouble
”
Socrates
Biden believes a lot into American exceptionalism.
What is the American exceptionalism and Manifest Destiny?
Manifest Destiny is defined as “the concept of American exceptionalism, that is, the belief that America occupies a special place among the countries of the world.” The Puritans came to America in 1630 believing that their survival in the new world would be a sign of God’s approval.
https://americanexperience.si.edu/historical-eras/expansion/pair-westward-apotheosis/#:~:text=Manifest%20Destiny%20is%20defined%20as,a%20sign%20of%20God's%20approval.
frednk @ #1618 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 10:03 pm
Because the issue is that women today are being disproportionately killed by men. Not chairs or beds.
FFS.
I think I’ve figured it out. Ven comments ‘Test’ every once in a while to check which account they’re logged into.
Cunning plan, Ven.
Or should I say, Lars!
No. Boerwar seems to want to draw some distinction between femicide rates of yesteryear to those of today, completely ignoring that laws have changed over the course of the last 30-40 years outlawing FDV.
My point is that women in Australia are being killed every 4 days by a man. Why do some feel the need to reduce this to an historically statistical argument in order to make excuses for today’s men?
Far lower availability of firearms (after 1996), no fault divorce, and higher social acceptability of separation, more mature mental health care, and lower acceptability of domestic violence probably contributed. Availability of pornography and ‘violent pornography’ is considerably higher than 1980, so that theory is almost certainly a bust.
Bail reform is a complex issue – experts will point out that even remand is likely to increase the likelyhood of a whole bunch of negative social effects. Also mass incarceration gets expensive in its own right.
After Maldives, Another Island Nation Elects Pro-China PM – Off Australia
In a secret ballot today, Mr Manele, who has promised to uphold the Pacific nation’s China-friendly foreign policy, received 31 votes, according to Al Jazeera.
https://www-ndtv-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.ndtv.com/world-news/after-maldives-another-island-nation-elects-pro-china-pm-off-australia-5571250/amp/1?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17146542490592&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ndtv.com%2Fworld-news%2Fafter-maldives-another-island-nation-elects-pro-china-pm-off-australia-5571250
Hamas has released all the hostages.
”
Rewisays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 10:43 pm
I think I’ve figured it out. Ven comments ‘Test’ every once in a while to check which account they’re logged into.
Cunning plan, Ven.
Or should I say, Lars!
”
Ha ha ha…….
But Rewi
I am not on Lars Team (as defined by sprocket). 🙂
”
FUBARsays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 10:56 pm
Hamas has released all the hostages.
”
At last!!!
Good isn’t it FUBAR if true?
Yes, well, you would say that, wouldn’t you.
But….
Netanyahu vows to invade Rafah ‘with or without a deal’ as ceasefire talks with Hamas continue
https://amp-9news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/0533f84e-ae15-4167-93b5-4e6d586a6099?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17146548383505&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.9news.com.au%2Fworld%2Fisrael-hamas-gaza-war-netanyahu-vows-to-invade-rafah%2F0533f84e-ae15-4167-93b5-4e6d586a6099
”
Rewisays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 11:00 pm
I am not on Lars Team
Yes, well, you would say that, wouldn’t you.
”
On what basis you came to the conclusion that I am on Lars Team? 🙂
Re nuclear weapons, two points that I’m sure FUBAR would prefer to ignore.
First is that UK is struggling to maintain its nuclear deterrent (leaving aside the questionable ‘independence’ of said deterrent) within its defense budget.
Second is that if Australia lobbed a warhead into Beijing, China would respond by reducing Australia down to bedrock, and ensure every politician and military type even tangentially involved is dead, and our allies wont be able to stop them, and probably wouldn’t be inclined to take a few on our behalf. China does after all have nukes too.
Confessions posted
That’s not what they are doing at all. Certainly Boerwar isn’t. He is using past data to shed light on the best way to proceed from here. There’s nothing controversial about that.
Simon
Perhaps, in part, then, it’s generational? I wonder what the age demographic of perpetrators is, and whether putting extra effort into school age children will see a further decline in years to come.
Boerwar recently highlighted the vastly higher rate of Aboriginal children being removed from their families as well as the vastly higher rate of domestic violence perpetrated against Aboriginal women as compared with non-Aboriginal society. Perhaps a far greater proportion of funds available to reduce the incidence of domestic violence ought to be directed to targeted programs (if it is not already).
Ven
Just kidding around.
@bystander – not a meaningless platitude – a direct challenge.
I challenge you to do at least one act of random kindness, and you know, refrain from raping or killing somebody, as you always do. I’ll do the same.
If everyone did that, ….. problem solved.
(Unfortunately, I am a lawyer, so I will have to sue a few people.)
Men can and must do better. All of us can and must do better.
On reducing violent pornography, I wonder how (and who from) society at large will be charged with discerning violent pornography from rough sex (which I’m told some people enjoy) or BDSM (which others enjoy). Addressing revenge porn is a no-brainer, but drawing the line on what is unacceptably violent seems a more difficult path to tread.
I’m not seeing any reports on news sites that Hamas has released the hostages.
Porn makes the world go around.
@FUBAR at 10:56pm
Um. Have you been hacked?
Kirsdarke says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 11:38 pm
They haven’t?
Why not?
Got through the day without killing anyone, male or female.
No one I know killed anyone.
Job done.
@FUBAR at 11:44pm
Oh okay, this is one of your little miserable evil lying piece of shit mind games, I get it now. Sorry for getting concerned that this was something serious.
Rather unfortunate for the federal government that the NSW Clubs data was breached just a day after they announced their porn data grab policy. That data that has been breached in NSW is data that was required to be collected by law. Government-mandated data collection on gamblers, with no way of opting out or gambling anonymously, and that data has now been stolen and released. As bad as that data breach is for gamblers, think how much worse a similar data breach will be for the government’s porn site age verification scheme. People kill themselves over data breaches like that.
Oakeshott Country @ #1451 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 4:18 pm
The same government that they probably spent the best 40+ years of their adult life supporting via taxes? I think letting them “live off” that for their last ~20 years is…well, not fair, exactly. But the unfairness is directed towards the pensioner. A 30 year/30 year split would be closer to fair; pay one year in and get one year out later.
All of which conveniently ignores how meager the aged pension is in the first place. No one’s living off that. Or if they are, they’re not living well.