The Australian reports the three-weekly Newspoll shows no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48, and little change on the primary vote, with Labor down one to 33%, the Coalition steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation down one to 6% and others up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Peter Dutton respectively steady at 37% and up one to 51%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, out slightly from 46-35. The report provides no information on field work dates or sample size, but the last one was Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1245.
UPDATE: It turns out to have been Monday to Friday, with the sample again 1245. Respondents were also told of “a proposal to build several small modular nuclear reactors around Australia to produce zero-emissions energy on the sites of existing coal-fired power stations once they are retired”, of which 55% approved and 31% disapproved.
We also have from Nine Newspapers the first Resolve Strategic poll since late November/early December, which is at at odds with its competitors in recording movement to the Coalition: up three points to 37%, with Labor and the Greens each down a point, to 34% and 11% respectively, and One Nation up one to 6%. My own estimate of two-party preferred based on preference flows in 2022 is a narrowing from around 54.5-45.5 to 52-48. This pollster had hitherto been comfortably the strongest series for Labor, but these numbers bring it back to the field.
There are also peculiarities on personal ratings: Anthony Albanese records a five-point increase in approval (or to be more precise, the sum of his good plus very good results) to 41% with disapproval (poor plus very poor) down one to 47%, but his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-28 to 39-32. Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 35% and down three to disapproval to 45%. Further findings from the poll include 52% support and 14% opposition to the revised stage three tax cuts. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
Asha says:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 6:42 pm
Nath:
Ah. First I’ve heard of this.
Well, if you can’t trust NewsCorp journalists sharing unsubstantiated leaks from unnamed sources with possible axes to grind, who can you trust?
______________________
I mean it’s possible that the two people writing for newspapers who are most sympathetic to Shorten are both making things up about their knowledge about inside conversations.
Asha:
Have you not heard of ‘bears’ within the gay community? Men with bellies, beards/body hair, and (often but not always) thinning hair or bald/cropped. Often 35+ too. If you’re not chubby but otherwise meet the other criteria, you could be an ‘otter’. Bears/otters, while not appreciated by everyone (but no type is), are definitely popular/have a sizeable following of admirers (you don’t have to be a bear/otter yourself).
Don’t sell yourself short! Not everyone goes for what the mainstream media tells us is hot/desirable.
Asha the Friendly Bear/Otter.
I think the idea that the Treasurer wouldn’t cop any potential flack arising from major changes to the tax system is pretty insane and displays total ignorance of how that sort of thing has historically turned out for those holding the Treasury portfolio. It’s more likely to go the opposite way.
If Chalmers actually said that – and I have some serious doubts about that one – then he is an idiot.
I also nothing in that tweet that he and Gallagher had to demand the S3 changes from Albo.
Mr Newbie:
Ha, I’ll keep that in mind if I ever need an extra revenue stream.
who knows who said what. All we have is the official record, the gossip, and eventually the ABC doco.
What we can do is notice who is reporting what. And two key media allies of Shorten are reporting on apparently high level conversations. Draw your own conclusions people. I have.
I’m reading the programme notes for tomorrow’s Galah Opening of the Sydney Symphony season.
The first work is the Australian premier of a French Violin Concerto, premiered in Paris in 2003, played by the composer.
To locate things in time, or something, significant 2023 events are noted. See what you think:
https://www.sydneysymphony.com/uploads/images/Program-Books/2024/2024-Simone-Young-conducts-Mahler’s-Fifth-Symphony-Program-Book.pdf
Not sure if Macarthur is about but there is some potentially very good news for Ukraine coming out of Sweden today.
Sweden makes a jet fighter, the Saab Gripen which many defence analysts consider would be ideal for Ukraine, being designed for easy maintenance off rugged arctic airstrips and even flying off roads, easy to maintain, and designed to counter Russian air defences.
Sweden had said previously it was willing to supply them, but not before it was in NATO. sweden formally joined NATO yesterday. It seems Ukrainian pilots have already been training on the jets.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/22/saab-waits-out-political-drama-over-sending-gripen-fighters-to-ukraine/#:~:text=Saab%20officials%20confirmed%20to%20Defense,for%20their%20transfer%20were%20advancing.
Nath:
I mean, if we operate under the assumption that your assessment of Shorten’s character is correct, then surely it follows that he might not be the most reliable source himself on the likes of Albanese and Chalmers.
ItzaDream @ #807 Tuesday, February 27th, 2024 – 6:54 pm
Correction: not played by the composer, who will however give the preconcert talk.
god, apologies for all the double stuff. Sorry.
No doubt Asha. When journalists cite high level conversations/discussions and inside info it is what it is. Worthy of taking note of. That’s all I do.
Japan’s population shrank with a record loss of 831,872 in 2023, as per preliminary data released by country’s health ministry on Tuesday.
According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, the number of newborns in Japan fell to a record low, down by 5.1 per cent to 758,631 in the reporting period, Xinhua news agency reported.
The figure marked the eighth straight year of decline and has remained below the 800,000 mark since 2022.
Grant_ExLibris says:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 6:17 pm
Sobering news for Victoria for tomorrow.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/nsw-sends-fire-crews-to-victoria-s-bushfire-region-ahead-of-catastrophic-conditions-20240227-p5f82h.html
Either these communities dodge a bullet or it will be Black Saturday 2009 all over again but worse.
Authorities have been found wanting and need to step up quickly and now.
——————
Authorities, that is the Federal and State government, have been found wanting.
Greg Mullins, former Commissioner of Fire and Rescue New South Wales, spoke to PM Morrison and LOTO Shorten in April 2019, barely a month before the May 2019 election, about the threat of bushfires he could envisage in the coming summer after 3 plus years of drought.
Suggested we need, maybe 30 waterbombing/ fire retardant dropping planes, not helicopters. Spread around Australia l And to be ready to go using satellites, other monitoring equipment, immediately a fire is discovered. To douse fire quickly.
Of course religious Morrison might think the 2019/2020 fires were a sign of the ‘end times’. Shorten did have a plan, but how many knew?
And it’s been forgotten now Labor are in government.
As it is, sure some houses are saved, but the fire is ‘contained’ allowed to burn through bushland, and allowed to escape, maybe ember attack, if winds strengthen, temperatures increase.
Australia uses the same methods fighting fires, the war, on the ground, as soldiers did in WWI. When in modern warfare planes are used for the first attack, certainly since WWII.
Be assured Federal and State governments do not want to spend money buying these planes, prepared to sacrifice often people, their homes, farms, animals and bushland.
And I could be wrong, but firefighters might like to continue failing as they usually do, keep fighting fires as they usually do – only start when the fire grows large. And the fire burns thousands of hectares. So no pressure for change.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 6:26 pm
@Entropy
While the temperatures and winds aren’t particularly strong compared to Black Saturday 2009, it’s the fact that a major fire has been burning in the area there since last week and the conditions are likely to get it going back to dangerous levels again. Plus it hasn’t rained there significantly since January, so there’s a lot of dried out undergrowth from the Christmas rains that are likely to fuel the fires there.
=========================================
I’m well aware of the conditions. I’m also well aware of the conditions that lead to Black Saturday too. It occurred following an extremely long drought too. Tomorrow only half of Victoria is in extreme fire danger and only Wimmera in Catastrophic. On Black Saturday, though this rating scale didn’t exist then, all of Victoria was under Catastrophic conditions. Had that scale system been in place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_Australian_drought
https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2025/remembering-black-saturday-the-extraordinary-weather-behind-victorias-2009-bushfires/
I am 100% with Irene.
I blame Labor for World War 1.
cracker headline…
Morrison says faith gives him ability to be honest on his failings – he just doesn’t have any
Paul Karp
(https://www.theguardian.com/profile/paul-karp)
Ashasays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 6:49 pm
If Chalmers actually said that – and I have some serious doubts about that one – then he is an idiot.
I also nothing in that tweet that he and Gallagher had to demand the S3 changes from Albo.
_____________________
You sound like C@t. Exactly the type of thing she would say.
Asha:
I was/am a huge fan of Tori’s 90s stuff (and her late 80s foray into rock-chick lite, Y Kant Tori Read). She did some amazing covers as B-sides, my favourite being her version of Joni Mitchell’s ‘A Case of You’. But another cover she did of a man’s song I really like is her version of Leonard Cohen’s ‘Famous Blue Raincoat’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMSbICWbjBw
Also like her version of Bruce Springsteen’s ‘I’m on Fire’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3k83xsEAFig
Which doesnt necessarily mean anything. Several years of drought can mean lower fuel loads.
The Adelaide Hills has had a reasonable amount of winter and then early summer rain. So plenty of undergrowth. But no rain for a month. If we get some hot windy days in a row, I’d be very worried.
Tori is the tops. Amazing child prodigy music story.
Note i’m not downplaying the fire danger of tomorrows conditions. They are extremely bad but Black Saturday was totally off the scale conditions. There was no way any one could stop that fire under those conditions. For the current Mt Cole fire the CFA has fortunately had fairly benign conditions the last few days. Which has allowed them to do lots of back burning and make containment lines. Yes there is a chance the fire could breach them but overall i’m fairly confident in the job the CFA has done. Though hope for best but plan for the worst is always a good idea.
I thought I was the only person who had ever listened to Y Kant Tori Read! It’s a super underrated late-80s synthpop album. “Fire on the Side” is a total banger.
I’m a really big fan of 90s / early 00s Tori, too. Nearly everything she’s done after Scarlet’s Walk does next to nothing for me, however. (Apart from Abnormally Attracted to Sin, which was a welcome a return to old-school pop/rock-tinged Tori. Oh, and I suppose American Doll Posse is alright, too.)
Team Katichsays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 7:21 pm
I’m well aware of the conditions. I’m also well aware of the conditions that lead to Black Saturday too. It occurred following an extremely long drought too.
Which doesnt necessarily mean anything. Several years of drought can mean lower fuel loads.
The Adelaide Hills has had a reasonable amount of winter and then early summer rain. So plenty of undergrowth. But no rain for a month. If we get some hot windy days in a row, I’d be very worried.
==================================================
So the Adelaide Hills facing worse fire danger then Ash Wednesday?. Though i personally rate Black Saturday conditions worst than Ash Wednesday. Though Ash Wednesday is the only day i have experience that can be compared to it. Though i’m sure Black Friday was similar but before my time.
Watching the Senate debate on the S3 tax cuts.
Senator Malcolm Roberts is talking about Ivermectin as a Covid cure. He says that Dr Fauci had patents on the drugs which were approved, and the World Economic Forum lined their pockets.
Your democracy at work…
Asha:
‘Fire on the Side’ is my favourite Y Kant Tori Read song, too. I even learnt to play a (somewhat simplified) version of it on the piano. The album is great, other than maybe ‘Pirates’ and ‘Heart Attack at 23’, but I can appreciate them for their tackiness. I prefer YKTR to her post-90s stuff. Like you, ‘Scarlet’s Walk’ was the last album I really cared for, though I haven’t given her last few a listen.
There are some pre-Y Kant Tori Read demos on YouTube I like, such as ‘Looking for Eldorado’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY4i2jB-Vks
Well, it actually is the case that Senator Roberts is giving an Adjournment debate on Big Pharma.
As for the S3 Bills, they passed the Senate without amendment. When push came to shove, the Coalition dropped the Greens like a hot potato.
I hope Albo finds his mojo soon.
Hard to believe he’s the same bloke who just over two years ago told Dutton to -‘sit down boofhead’
Asha @ #770 Tuesday, February 27th, 2024 – 5:22 pm
Thanks Asha. I had not seen that…& it lead me to Amos’ version of I Could Drink a Case of You.
I think the point I am getting to is that “those conditions” (where fires arent stoppable) are not rare. They dont have to be off the charts for catastrophe to happen. You dont need months of build up. Which is why most fire agencies (and police) are keen to stop fires from being started and put them out fast if they do start. The Cherry Gardens fire of a few years ago showed what could happen with a short burst of heat and just moderate wind after general mild build ups.
To answer your question, no, conditions here are not like Ash Wednesday. But if the forecast here tomorrow was 40+ and strong winds from the north west – yeah, it doesnt matter that we havent had a 3 month drought nor 10 days of ultra high temps. The conditions would be catastrophic and I would be on high alert and prepared for departure. As it is, at Extreme, I will be tuning in to the CFS.
Anyone who says ‘ahhh, this isnt bad, nothing the the old days of Ash Wednesday’ is playing with fire.
I should clarify that I don’t mean to compare one set of fire conditions to another, just I hope that everyone in the rough Beaufort-Avoca area in Victoria should be prepared for the worst to happen tomorrow.
Black Saturday was indeed off the charts.
Victoria had been enduring days of heat wave conditions with temperatures as high as 48 degrees. No rain and winds in excess of 100 kph. Horrendous conditions.
nath:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 5:13 pm
[‘Asha, that fits right in with a custom video idea I have. Here are the broad outlines:
A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo’s, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle gives me the finger, and a duck!’]
You’re a real card, nath. I couldn’t come up with something like that if my life depended on it. It’s my training wot done it.
____________________________________
I was confident that it wouldn’t be long before Lamarre-Condon cracked under pressure, Webb saying, … the discovery of the bodies “did come with the assistance of the accused.” It follows that he’s stuffed, but at least he’ll now be eligible for parole after serving around 35-40 years.
____________________________________
I missed Morrison’s valedictory today but question, amongst other things, his claim of being on top of C.19 given he said that the supply of vaccines was “not a race”. Granted he had the gift of the gab but nothing much more. He’s more shallow than Lake George in the off-season.
Looks like a good advertising spend to me… Labor has learnt something from the years of Liberal largesse of taxpayer funded feel good advertising of all and sundry policies
The coalition wouldn’t stand in the way of lower taxes and relief, opposition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume told parliament.
“But that doesn’t mean we condone the mistruth that was told,” Senator Hume said, referring to the government backflipping on its position not to touch the initial tax package.
The senator also questioned why the government needed $40 million to advertise its tax package, especially given Australians don’t have to do anything to claim the lower rates.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8537677/revamped-tax-cuts-for-millions-of-aussies-locked-in/?cs=14329
For Morrison to take credit for Australia’s relatively good outcome from the COVID epidemic is a disgraceful insult to the Premiers and Chief Ministers who did the real work.
Greg Sheridan has shared his thoughts on Tay-Tay for us all.
Team Katichsays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 8:02 pm
There was no way any one could stop that fire under those conditions
I think the point I am getting to is that “those conditions” (where fires arent stoppable) are not rare. They dont have to be off the charts for catastrophe to happen.
===========================================================
Yep, fair enough but your overall comments are not much different to my original statement at beginning of this discussion.
Entropysays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 6:22 pm
“Either these communities dodge a bullet or it will be Black Saturday 2009 all over again but worse”
==================================================
The weather forecast is for low 40s in parts of the state. Melbourne was 46.4 Celsius on Black Saturday. It is suppose to be 37 Celsius tomorrow. They are bad conditions but they are certainly not Black Saturday conditions though.
@Dog’s Brunch at 8:48pm
“No I’m not mad, you’re mad!” declares a spurned Greg Sheridan who joins a cavalcade of rightwingers that are salty that their supposed White Milky Way Girl Taylor Swift has decided to not be their Leni Riefenstahl figure in their re-enactment of the 1930’s.
Labor’s overhauled stage 3 tax cuts have sailed through the parliament, guaranteeing taxpayers additional relief come July 1.
After a vote was called in the Senate on Tuesday evening, the Coalition begrudgingly supported the government’s tax overhaul which will mean all of Australia’s 13.6 million taxpayers will receive tax relief from the middle of the year.
Opposition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume told the Senate the Coalition would not oppose tax relief for Australians. “But that doesn’t mean we condone the mistruth that was told,” Senator Hume said, pointing to the government’s broken promise in altering the tax package.
A dramatic rebound in Australian coal shipments to China following a two-year ban imposed by Beijing has fuelled a surge in thermal coal exports to Indo-Pacific countries relying on coal-fired power to keep the lights on and support heavy industry.
New figures reveal NSW coal exports to China in 2023 eclipsed pre-pandemic levels, with more than 36 million tonnes of thermal and metallurgical coal – worth about $5.7bn based on Free on Board value – shipped to the communist nation.
Data prepared by Coal Services Pty Ltd, overseen by the NSW Minerals Council and the Mining and Energy Union, shows Chinese importers last year purchased 24 per cent of the state’s coal exports after President Xi Jinping lifted restrictions banning Australian coal in 2021 and 2022.
Demand for NSW and Queensland thermal coal from Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia remains strong as developing nations and major economies import Australian coal and LNG.
As Trade Minister Don Farrell met Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Abu Dhabi to discuss removing the remaining tariffs and restrictions on Australian wine, lobster and meat exports, Australian coal producers on Tuesday predicted strong demand “for decades to come”.
NSW coal export volumes hit more than 152 million tonnes last year, an increase of 6 per cent, and would have been higher if shipments to Japan and South Korea were not restricted by weather-related impacts on the Hunter rail coal chain and Port of Newcastle. Exports of NSW thermal coal increased by nearly 8 per cent.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/aussie-coal-powers-china-and-asia-boosting-nsw-and-queensland-coffers/news-story/720fb8d87b8ebca4a802fbd237578ed0?amp
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 9:03 pm
@Dog’s Brunch at 8:48pm
“No I’m not mad, you’re mad!” declares a spurned Greg Sheridan who joins a cavalcade of rightwingers that are salty that their supposed White Milky Way Girl Taylor Swift has decided to not be their Leni Riefenstahl figure in their re-enactment of the 1930’s
================================================
I see Sheridan as more a Franco type fascism supporter. Who probably threw out all his ABBA collection in 1976 when they released “Fernando”. Only to discover to late that it was about the Mexican revolution.
Lyrics:
There was something in the air that night
The stars were bright, Fernando
They were shining there for you and me
For liberty, Fernando
Though I never thought that we could lose
There’s no regret
If I had to do the same again
I would, my friend, Fernando
If I had to do the same again
I would, my friend, Fernando
@Entropy
Well, fascists in general tend to be drawn to other fascists, and the Republican fascists currently within range of gaining supreme power over the USA on the whole seem to be generally upset that Taylor Swift, who began her career in their domain in Country Music seems to have moved her career in ways they don’t approve of, so at least that’s my theory as to why so many right wingers seem to be quite salty about that.
Asha,
The young man in my house is a budding DM.
He’s created a character for me: a boring human rogue, ex-low ranking military officer, problems with authority, stubborn with no tact and very low stealth. Thanks, son.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 9:25 pm
@Entropy
Well, fascists in general tend to be drawn to other fascists, and the Republican fascists currently within range of gaining supreme power over the USA on the whole seem to be generally upset that Taylor Swift, who began her career in their domain in Country Music seems to have moved her career in ways they don’t approve of, so at least that’s my theory as to why so many right wingers seem to be quite salty about that.
======================================
Sounds a sound theory. Though i was exploring the idea of a song or singers that, like Swift, possibly annoyed right wing nutters. I suspect Bob Dylan annoyed a lot of them too. Like with “A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall” among others. While here is one for Rainman “U2 – Sunday Bloody Sunday” and one to balance it out “The Cranberries – Zombie”.
@Entropy at 9:51pm
That’s also true, but I think the thing that most annoyed the fascists about him was that Bob Dylan was Jewish, or at the very least in their books, had Jewish ancestry, so there’s that to go through before they get to his actual lyrical content.
Two people/organisations announce their intention to do the same thing.
Those same two people/organisations then renege on their intention & do another identical thing.
If one was lying, is the other?
Yes, Jane, they fucking are.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 9:55 pm
@Entropy at 9:51pm
That’s also true, but I think the thing that most annoyed the fascists about him was that Bob Dylan was Jewish, or at the very least in their books, had Jewish ancestry, so there’s that to go through before they get to his actual lyrical content.
==============================================
I actually generally picture Henry Kissinger going into some rage over “Master of War” or some other Dylan song. So i don’t picture any ethnicity init myself.
Entropy
The weather forecast is for low 40s in parts of the state. Melbourne was 46.4 Celsius on Black Saturday. It is suppose to be 37 Celsius tomorrow. They are bad conditions but they are certainly not Black Saturday conditions though.
——————-
Conditions might not be as severe as Black Saturday but they start behind because of the large out of control fire.
‘Bill shock delayed until after Dunkley’
The nation’s biggest health insurers fear Labor is delaying a decision on how much to increase premiums for millions of Australians until after the Dunkley by-election.
More scare campaigns courtesy of the Oz.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Entropy
The weather forecast is for low 40s in parts of the state. Melbourne was 46.4 Celsius on Black Saturday. It is suppose to be 37 Celsius tomorrow. They are bad conditions but they are certainly not Black Saturday conditions though.
——————-
Conditions might not be as severe as Black Saturday but they start behind because of the large out of control fire.
===================================================
There were fires already burning on Black Saturday too. Though like the Mt Cole fire had containment back burns around it. A new fire without containment lines around it is far more dangerous than an existing fire with those in place.