The Australian reports the three-weekly Newspoll shows no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48, and little change on the primary vote, with Labor down one to 33%, the Coalition steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation down one to 6% and others up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Peter Dutton respectively steady at 37% and up one to 51%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, out slightly from 46-35. The report provides no information on field work dates or sample size, but the last one was Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1245.
UPDATE: It turns out to have been Monday to Friday, with the sample again 1245. Respondents were also told of “a proposal to build several small modular nuclear reactors around Australia to produce zero-emissions energy on the sites of existing coal-fired power stations once they are retired”, of which 55% approved and 31% disapproved.
We also have from Nine Newspapers the first Resolve Strategic poll since late November/early December, which is at at odds with its competitors in recording movement to the Coalition: up three points to 37%, with Labor and the Greens each down a point, to 34% and 11% respectively, and One Nation up one to 6%. My own estimate of two-party preferred based on preference flows in 2022 is a narrowing from around 54.5-45.5 to 52-48. This pollster had hitherto been comfortably the strongest series for Labor, but these numbers bring it back to the field.
There are also peculiarities on personal ratings: Anthony Albanese records a five-point increase in approval (or to be more precise, the sum of his good plus very good results) to 41% with disapproval (poor plus very poor) down one to 47%, but his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-28 to 39-32. Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 35% and down three to disapproval to 45%. Further findings from the poll include 52% support and 14% opposition to the revised stage three tax cuts. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
Looks like an early election after a giveaway budget is the best bet for Labor. They need to refresh the mandate and policy shelf.
Nah. Next year will do.
The desperate attempts by the Australian to spin this as anything but a status quo result are hilarious.
The talk of no poll bounce for Labor from S3 is premature. People won’t feel the benefits till after July 1. Labor should not even consider any election before Oct/Nov.
nadia88says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:48 pm
William Bowesays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 8:48 pm
WB or Steve – can you do a quick calc. pls.
=================================
Thanks WB (& Steve earlier). So I take it that probably both Resolve Strategic and Essential Vision should be taken with a bit of a “raised eyebrow”, in that they don’t post a 2PP and they fluff around a bit with the undecideds. I suspected it too though I sort of don’t mind Essential because they post every 2 weeks and have the guts to publish their figures (even if the 2PP round-up is non senensical). Thanks for getting back, both of you!
## Copied from previous blog
Rainman says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:58 pm
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 12:43 pm
• Vic Socialists and Aus Democrats are now running.
And the presence of Socialists (and perhaps Democrats) might draw a few voters who would otherwise vote Labor.
—————————————————————————-
That piqued my interest so I looked to see if there were SA Socialists and I found this:
‘Socialist Alternative (SA) is a Trotskyist organisation in Australia. As a revolutionary socialist group, it describes itself as aiming to organise collective struggles against oppression and inequality while promoting the need for a revolutionary movement that could one day overthrow capitalism.
In 2018, Socialist Alternative helped to establish the Victorian Socialists, an electoral project to win federal, state, and local council positions for socialist candidates in the state of Victoria.’
Source: enwikipedia.org
I thought that was pretty cool and when I was younger and more of an idealist I probably would have voted for them.
But now, I’m older and more pragmatic so I’ll probably vote for the Legalise Cannabis South Australia Party.
“… the first Resolve Strategic poll for the year produces a somewhat unexpected fillip for the Coalition.”
Emulating Tony Abbott, who produced an unexpected Philip for the Coalition … 😉
Very good Oliver!
Ha Ha news ltd did not get the bounce from its own Newspoll for the libs so they have run heavily on the resolve poll of its competitor-nine.
What are competitors for!
Pretty much status quo from the election. All the economic indicators are heading in labor’s way between now and the election.
That’ll do for now.
Dutton will soon be embattled one suspects.
“ Looks like an early election after a giveaway budget is the best bet for Labor. They need to refresh the mandate and policy shelf.”
back on the vinegar strokes L’arse?
More pegging.
The ALP need to quickly solve the ME crisis, commercialise cold fusion, ditch Albo, install Taylor Swift as leader and go to the polls tomorrow. Else they r done for. Done for! I tells ya.
On a brighter note, India back in with a good sniff of winning the 4th test (and the series). Come on Baz, get Stokes to bowl first thing tomoz and save the day.
nadia88: “… I sort of don’t mind Essential because they post every 2 weeks and have the guts to publish their figures (even if the 2PP round-up is non senensical).”
It’s easy enough to split Essential’s few percent of undecideds between their ‘2PP+’ numbers for Labor and the Coalition.
”
Pied Pipersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 10:12 pm
Ha Ha news ltd did not get the bounce from its own Newspoll for the libs so they have run heavily on the resolve poll of its competitor-nine.
”
Even PP is laughing at The Australian Murdoch rag commentary. You can now see how far the Murdoch rags have gone in the gutter.
Nine FauxFox: “Voters have lifted the Coalition to its strongest position since the last federal election …”
Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was …
Socialist Alternative as an organisation are absolutely certifiably nuts, but Victorian Socialists has been a surprisingly serious political project, to my general surprise (and I think a lot of people familiar with them).
I voted for their council candidate – who went on to win by one vote – as a protest, because I was fed up with the council and wanted to stir things up. And he’s gone on to be a perfectly sensible, solidly progressive, presence on council, and polled shockingly well in his ward booths at the state election.
Their upper house campaign was similarly serious – they effectively ran for two years, and worked the west on a bunch of issues that neither Labor and Greens wanted to talk about.
There is water at the bottom of the ocean.
Dunkley resident here. Slightly bemused at the parade of federal pollies dropping in. The Tory candidate, a young Irish bloke seems to have blotted his copybook with his claim to running a multi-million dollar company. It was a bowls club in Melbourne. You couldn’t make this up. The ALP candidate seems far more credible, having worked in NGOs supporting vulnerable women for years. Not a hard decision for me. But as an aside I do wish federal ALP would back off from supporting the woke gender alphabet mob. Stick to working people’s needs and you’ll be good.
The election will probably be in late March 2025. Easter is later next year with Easter Sunday being April 20th. Therefore a May election would be over the period were Easter and ANZAC day both fall and I reckon that is going to a week a lot of people are going to be taking off.
A budget will then be able to be delivered in May by whoever wins.
Look where my hand was.
Socrates says:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:25 pm
If we do get Trump II the good news is we can dump AUKUS. The bad news is – everything else that gets dumped.
IMO Australian diplomats should be talking to India, Japan and South Korea about a regional defence pact now. We might need it.
——————————————————————————
I would be quite happy if we dumped AUKUS and the U.S. Alliance.
I think the U.S. could easily prove to be an unreliable ally if we ever needed to rely on it. I also think that all it gets us is being drawn into their wars, and I sure as hell don’t want us to be drawn into a war with China.
The problem with a military alliance involving India, Japan and South Korea is that it could also draw us into a war with China.
Our only real regional threat is the Republic of Indonesia, which in its short history has been politically unstable and hostile – the Indonesia-Malaysia confrontation under Sukarno, which involved Australian armed forces; a military coup that led to the Suharto dictatorship and the genocide of between 500,00 and one million people; the invasion and occupation of East Timor, which killed 200,00 people and eventually involved our Australian armed forces; and the oppressive ongoing occupation of West Papua. We don’t need the U.S. alliance to deter any future threat from Indonesia. We just need a very strong modern military capability.
”
Macarthursays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:27 pm
Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 7:13 pm:
“Whats the latest with Congress MacArthur? Wasn’t there a move to force a vote on funding? There’s been no media about it in recent days – do you know current state of play?”
=====================
Lars, yes, there are moves to bring on a ‘discharge petition’, as it’s called, to circumvent the Speaker’s refusal to put the Senate foreign aid bill to a floor vote in the House. CBS has this explainer:
“A House rule dating back to 1931 outlines the process. Any member can file a discharge petition with the House clerk, who then makes it available in a “convenient place” for members to sign.
”
If you ( means anyone posting/ reading on PB) watched Legally Blonde movie, you would understand”discharge petition” better because the movie plot is based on that legislative procedure.
How did I get here?
There will not be an early election!
The ALP learned that lesson in 1984.
We love elections and polls and debate. Everyone else would rather just get a good night’s sleep.
The less we say about it the better.
I guess the genius of the A/T/M era was that it was easy to announce politically advantageous, but practically difficult, policy when you had no intention to deliver in the first place (even more so when the MSM had not inclination to call it out). My favourite was the annual re-annoucment of the Inland Rail.
Seems like it is somewhat harder when you actually intend to govern and navigate the winners and losers of policy.
Facts all come with points of view.
The West Australian tells us “Peter Dutton’s Liberals have taken a lead over the Albanese Government for the first time in a major opinion poll, as another survey shows signs of Labor’s vote falling further, ahead of a major by-election test for Labor this weekend.”
The article was posted on line at 6:45pm, just over an hour ago as it is now 8pm in the Cave.
I wonder if they will change it now that the Newspoll result is known?
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Looks like an early election after a giveaway budget is the best bet for Labor. They need to refresh the mandate and policy shelf.
======================================
Lars – unlikely. Earliest date for a House & half-senate is Saturday 10-August-2024 (Sat 3-Aug if the Governor is in a good mood to quickly sign off writs etc).
Voters will forget about any budget give-aways by this time, in the same way they have forgotten about the S3 revision announced before Oz Day. I am shocked by the fallout of the S3 revision. My reading is that it was received well, but the polls simply don’t reflect this. I expected an ALP primary bounce, but what I am seeing is some sort of “dead-cat bounce”. In fact it’s worse, the bounce has been flatter than an ironing board. The pro-LNP posters on this site will confirm this, as will the mature ALP posters. There is clearly another issue at play in voterland, and it’s got nothing to do with S3. I’ll put my thinking cap on and have a think.
I am aware that BT has recorded an increase in the ALP primary b/w Jan to Feb of 0.9% (which is significant), but I posted last week that I suspect this is because the dismal polls for Labor in Nov/Dec last year, have now been removed from BT’s calculations.
This is what has caused BT to rise (the ALP primary, that is), but the rise has not been caused by the S3 revision.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 10:05 pm
“… the first Resolve Strategic poll for the year produces a somewhat unexpected fillip for the Coalition.”
Emulating Tony Abbott, who produced an unexpected Philip for the Coalition
==========================================
Yes, Sir Prince Phillip, in 2015.
I think we’re all agreed that that was the “beginning of the end of PM. Abbott”.
The West Australian is wilfully ignorant of the concept of preferential voting.
nadia88: “I am shocked by the fallout of the S3 revision. My reading is that it was received well, but the polls simply don’t reflect this.”
The ‘hip pocket nerve’ is vastly overrated as an influence on voting intentions.
Dandy. Nobody’s paying much attention.
nadia88: ‘I think we’re all agreed that that was the “beginning of the end of PM. Abbott”.’
The Mad Monk had already been put on 6 months probation by his party room.
‘Sir Prince’ was more the end of the end.
I suppose it would be possible for a late March early April 2025 election, just I think May would be more likely because I imagine Labor would prefer to pass the 2025-26 budget before calling it. The last time a federal election was held so close to a state election was 1996 where it was held a week after the Tasmanian one.
That and the thought of Dutton winning and then immediately passing a horror budget a month later is not a pleasant one.
Don’t leave me stranded here, Katich
They can’t seem to face up to the facts.
I’ll cover up and say goodnight.
I start a conversation, I can’t even finish it …
Saw Talking Heads at the Roundhouse in London in 1977.
Sandwiched between The Saints as support and The Ramones as headliners.
I can’t sleep, ’cause my bed’s on fire
(…and out)
@ nadia88 … I don’t think it is super complicated.
“Cost of living”, but in the context where media is so fragmented and “political” (as in, focused on the blood letting rather than policy) that most voters are now “low information” voters. No shade on the average family, just a fact on where the tech/social media is at.
Several dozen $10-100 million announcables just doesn’t get heard about any more, and real money annoucements don’t last more than a week. I’m not exactly on struggle street but I still get a shock when I do the groceries.
I’ll separately note that Insiders in particular has reached a special kind of hell – likely too gossipy and reliant on prior knowledge for the average viewers, but likewise no meat for the policy wonks. Have no idea who watches it.
Bizzcan: “… Insiders in particular has reached a special kind of hell – likely too gossipy and reliant on prior knowledge for the average viewers …”
That’s the foundational conceit of the concept of ‘Insiders’.
Re the election date, I think March is most likely. Even early April, which would be Australia’s first April election.
Easter is late next year, Sunday April 20, which means that the Easter and Anzac holiday periods run into each other. NSW school holidays run from April 13-28. Other States would be similar. This is problematical for a May election.
Rainman
“I would be quite happy if we dumped AUKUS and the U.S. Alliance.”
1. Agreed on AUKUS, Alliance is harder to back out of unless Trump throws rules away.
“I think the U.S. could easily prove to be an unreliable ally if we ever needed to rely on it. I also think that all it gets us is being drawn into their wars, and I sure as hell don’t want us to be drawn into a war with China.”
2. Strongly agree. I was opposed to Iraq invasion in 2003.
“The problem with a military alliance involving India, Japan and South Korea is that it could also draw us into a war with China.”
3. That is a risk. But US alliance is an even bigger risk of same due to containment policy. India, Japan and South Korea are all arming defensively, trying to avoid war.
“Our only real regional threat is the Republic of Indonesia, which in its short history has been politically unstable and hostile – the Indonesia-Malaysia confrontation under Sukarno, which involved Australian armed forces; a military coup that led to the Suharto dictatorship and the genocide of between 500,00 and one million people; the invasion and occupation of East Timor, which killed 200,00 people and eventually involved our Australian armed forces; and the oppressive ongoing occupation of West Papua. We don’t need the U.S. alliance to deter any future threat from Indonesia. We just need a very strong modern military capability.”
4. Indonesia is a risk, but could also be an ally in conflict with China. Australia helped Indonesia become independent from the start. We have cards to play to be better neighbours if we were more independent of USA. Agree on capability to defend vs Indonesia if militarist comes to power.
LMAO what
Obviously they are talking about the primary vote (gee,I wonder why?), but if you are using primary votes as your measure, then the Coalition has been in front for ages, not for the first time.
I swear, the Murdoch press is pretty much just gaslighting Liberal supporters at this point.
As I have said here before when you have increased millions of Australians rents by 9 percent on average in the past year voters are not going to give a rats arse about 15 -25 dollar a week tax cuts if their weekly rent has gone up 50-100 etc.
The insane numbers of students etc that labor has bought in has caused Australians pain.
Me thinks it was to avoid a recession the irony is that a recession is a real possibility let’s wait for the Dec quarter stats in 10 days as a pointer.
Simon Katich / Dandy Murray:
I feel like I’m missing some crucial context.
“I swear, the Murdoch press is pretty much just gaslighting Liberal supporters at this point.”
That was from the West Australian, Asha, was it not?
Stokes’s Seven West Media, not Murdoch.
Discredit where it’s due.
They are quoting random Talking Heads lyrics at each other, for one reason or another.
Asha says:
“Simon Katich / Dandy Murray:
I feel like I’m missing some crucial context.”
I may be guilty here. In a comment on the latest polling, I channeled Talking Heads:
“Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was …”
A rally of Talking Heads lyrics ensued.