Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor pokes its nose in front in what has been its weakest polling series through the term, though the primary vote records little change.

The Financial Review has a federal poll from Freshwater Strategy, the pollster’s first for the paper since mid-December, though it conducted one for the News Corp papers in early January. It has Labor leading 51-49, after its previous two polls both recorded a dead heat. There is little change on the primary vote, with Labor on 31% and the Coalition on 38%, respectively steady and down one from both the two previous polls, and the Greens on 14%, up one from the December poll and steady from January.

A preferred prime minister measure has Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 42-38, little changed from 43-39 in December. A question on the tax cut amendments finds 44% supportive, 26% indifferent and 15% opposed, with 32% expecting to be better off, 12% worse off and 43% anticipating no difference. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1049.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,102 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Empty houses, Colesworth buying up the good retail locations and sitting on them, developers drip feeding stock into an every inflating market…

    These are all examples of unearned economic rents.

    A universal land tax is the way to capture these rents for society’s benefit rather than individual gain.

    Just saying, but we have the tools to tackle this, if not the will.

  2. I’ve shopped in Aldi since they arrived.
    Just the one return in the whole time. No problems with that at all.
    In all that time I have been held up by a returner returning an item just once.
    The average queue time is super quick. Fruit and vegies are fresh, cheap and good quality.
    I am not faced with searching for a particular item in aisles full of fake choices.
    The general price per trolley load is at around two thirds that of Colesworth.
    Aldi? The best supermarket thing since sliced bread.

  3. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:36 am

    “No, WA is doing handsomely out of this plan. The Arafuras ($300 million each) are reduced from 1 to 6. The new 11 ship General Purpose frigates ($1 billion+ each) goes to Perth instead. Probably an extra $10+ billion here for Perth.”

    My question remains the same – where are you getting this information from?

  4. “Agreed, but I’d swap out the 57mm DP gun for a DP auto cannon ”

    35mm Oerlikon “millennium gun” is an established option for that.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rheinmetall_Oerlikon_Millennium_Gun

    And would probably suit the Arafura. Some builds of that model already have 4 SSM launchers. I’d like to see RAM included for a bit longer range self defense though.

    I’m pretty sure all of those are within the topside weight capabilities of Arafura, and dont require modifications below decks??

    Oh, and a small version of the CEA phased array.

    “imacca – what is your claim based on? WA is going backwards based on the ABC reporting.”

    The goodies for W.A. are longer term construction contracts here that seem to cut in before the reduced Arafura build finishes.

    “My question remains the same – where are you getting this information from?”

    Actually listening to Marle’s announcement. 🙂

  5. OMG, this is how English and years work.

    We are IN 2024 now, we will be ENTERING 2025 in the future. Ergo, we will be entering an election year in 2025. We cannot enter an election year in 2024 because we are already here.

    But let’s play language semantics games because it’s PB after all.

  6. @bob: ““He either doesn’t understand the Census data or wilfully misrepresented it for political mileage, which puts him in the same bracket as ScoMo.”

    The article doesn’t do anything to actually disprove him. It simply says “oh well there might be reasons they’re empty”.”

    It does cite an actual study which backs up what might be thought of as common sense, which starts
    with “the largest share (43.6 per cent) of unoccupied properties were empty because the resident wasn’t home”, which means the property is not unoccupied. When you claim a million properties unoccupied and actually nearly half of them it’s just the person wasn’t home on census night, you are instantly talking complete shit.

    Then another 22.8% holiday homes, and I hate to break this to you, but the housing problem will not be solved by making apartments in Port Douglas or Lorne available to buy for people with lives and jobs in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane etc.

    Then some unoccupied rentals – there’s always going to be some churn when some rental properties are between tenants. Then there’s going to be some residential addresses which are properties being built or renovated etc and cannot be occupied.

    I put it to you that the guy claiming a million houses vacant has been thoroughly disproved and the onus is actually on him to back up his own shit numbers, not just throw a number out there from the census and misrepresent it.

    Nobody is saying there aren’t some land-banked houses out there which could be put on the market but it’s not a million and it’s not even close to a million. This is MAGA-level false facts from Max.

  7. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:36 am

    “No, WA is doing handsomely out of this plan. The Arafuras ($300 million each) are reduced from 12 to 6. The new 11 ship General Purpose frigates ($1 billion+ each) goes to Perth instead. Probably an extra $10+ billion here for Perth.”

    If this is accurate then there needs to be a massive spend on shipbuilding infrastructure. Just getting the workforce is going to require a huge spend as well.

  8. Maybe when he’s done with breaking up Coles and Woolworths littleproud could turn his attention to the banks.
    The Government could nationalise the Commonwealth and force Westpac, NAB and ANZ to divest themselves of the State banks they swallowed up all those years ago.
    Makes as much sense as breaking up Coles and Woolworths.

  9. WA Labor senator Louise Pratt is set to announce her retirement from Federal politics ahead of the next election. The West Australian understands the three-term senator has told Labor colleagues she will call time on her more than two-decade-long career in politics, with her term ending in June 2025.
    It is expected Senator Pratt will make the announcement alongside the Prime Minister this morning.
    When asked last week, Senator Pratt said preselections had not opened. Senator Pratt was first elected to the State upper house aged 28, the youngest woman ever elected to the Legislative Council.
    She left State politics in 2007 to contest the Senate, elected for her first term starting in 2008.
    Before the 2013 election, a factional deal saw Senator Pratt dropped to second place on the WA Labor ticket, behind right factional warlord Joe Bullock.

  10. Dandy Murraysays:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:38 am
    Empty houses, Colesworth buying up the good retail locations and sitting on them, developers drip feeding stock into an every inflating market…

    These are all examples of unearned economic rents.

    A universal land tax is the way to capture these rents for society’s benefit rather than individual gain.

    Just saying, but we have the tools to tackle this, if not the will.
    ———————–
    New taxes are not always the solution and upping taxes on small businesses just helps big businesses.

  11. Aldi coffee beans are so good. They are only slightly cheaper than home brand Coles beans but always fresher (because they only stock a few brands so turnover high) and far yummier. Aldi beans are comparable to beans 4 times their price at Coles/Wools.

    There are grumpy people on the odd occasion the Aldi beans sell out for a day or two.

    Also, when Aldi stock a product similar to something Bunnings sell – Bunnings will often put that product on sale (high pressure hoses etc). Sometimes I have noticed the same with online appliance stores on things like dryers.

  12. “as we enter the election year” seems, um, a very strong hint that Gartrell at least thinks this is an election year for the Federal Government.”
    If the full term is March 2025 then an “election year” stretches from March 2024 to March 2025 if you are describing a length of time of 12 months as a “year” rather than simply going by a calendar year.

  13. @Mostly Interested: “OMG, this is how English and years work.

    We are IN 2024 now, we will be ENTERING 2025 in the future. Ergo, we will be entering an election year in 2025. We cannot enter an election year in 2024 because we are already here.”

    It’s the start of the year. He said “as we enter an election year”. The standard reading of that would be this year that we are just commencing in political and business terms. It would be completely weird to say “as we enter an election year” and be talking about something that isn’t happening for 11 months.

    I’m sorry MI, but decades of business emails tell me that he was referring to the current year not 2025. That is how people write. It’s not language semantic games. Maiden is right and you’re wrong.

  14. Mex,

    “New taxes are not always the solution and upping taxes on small businesses just helps the big businesses.”

    Jeezus H. Christ on a bicycle…

  15. Mexicanbeemer @ #560 Tuesday, February 20th, 2024 – 11:15 am

    Dandy Murraysays:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:38 am
    Empty houses, Colesworth buying up the good retail locations and sitting on them, developers drip feeding stock into an every inflating market…

    These are all examples of unearned economic rents.

    A universal land tax is the way to capture these rents for society’s benefit rather than individual gain.

    Just saying, but we have the tools to tackle this, if not the will.
    ———————–
    New taxes are not always the solution and upping taxes on small businesses just helps the big businesses.

    Is what Dandy suggesting a tax on small business? We are talking unearned economic rents. Not many small businesses will have those.

    Tax systems are imperfect. Over time they get corrupted. They rot. They must be maintained, cleaned, sanded, repainted, old rotting bits replaced – and if they dont they need a larger restoration. You gotta keep ahead of the rot – it only gets worse.

  16. dressed weight

    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:26 am
    Shoots MI ans BW’s arguments down. That Greens representatives are only city folk.

    They’re Tree Changers and Sea Changers…..

    ——–

    Yes. Stating truths is typical of my style. Had to correct MI and BW. Falsehoods should not go unchallenged.

  17. Team Katich
    Is what Dandy suggesting a tax on small business? We are talking unearned economic rents. Not many small businesses will have those.

    Tax systems are imperfect. Over time they get corrupted. They rot. They must be maintained, cleaned, sanded, repainted, old rotting bits replaced – and if they dont they need a larger restoration. You gotta keep ahead of the rot – it only gets worse.
    ———————
    Dandy suggested a universal land tax.

  18. FUBAR

    All the quotes I gave are from Marles’ official media statement.
    https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2024-02-20/navys-enhanced-lethality-surface-combatant-fleet

    Henderson is already undergoing consolidation, and more work is already budgeted for both sub maintenance and ship construction facilities. It is huge. There is $8 billion in the AUKUS budget for Henderson and HMAS Stirling. I have not seen a detailed breakdown, but ample money is there.

  19. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:42 am
    OMG, this is how English and years work.
    =================================================

    If i believed the next election was in May 2025. I might say it was a year off instead of being more exact and say 15 months or a year and a quarter. As it is just easier to say a year and it is not that far off it anyway. Just like i often say the last LNP Government was in for 9 years when in fact it was from 18th of September 2013 to 23rd of May 2022. Which is actually around 4 months short of 9 years.

  20. November Election? Early December? Maybe the plan is to roll out the Budget and then into an election campaign.

    I read it as “entering an election year” means now, February-March is the start of the election year – 2024. If he means the year to be the next 12 months then his communication is unclear.

    Is there any limit on the Senate at the moment?

  21. Arky thanks for your googling
    From observation local Coles and Woolworths move stock from 1 store to another
    Our local Coles is notorious for selling produce that has been on other stores shelves, if not sold at Elsternwick it is collected by OzHarvest
    I try to buy at the first store in that chain not the last

    There is massive waste in food distribution chain because we don’t want to see empty shelves in our supermarkets so stock that sits in warehouse til close to its Use-By date goes to OzHarvest SecondBite and Foodbank

    Foodbank will buy grain directly from farmer, send it through factory and distribute boxes of cereal directly
    When I worked at Foodshare we were cutting open 4l cartons of cream that had frozen, cracking open pallets of eggs, handling sheets of frozen pastry that had been poorly stored

    Inventory control is a branch of statistics that mining companies employ specialists to manage but Colesworth do things the old fashioned way

  22. Dandy Murraysays:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:51 am
    Mex,

    “New taxes are not always the solution and upping taxes on small businesses just helps the big businesses.”

    Jeezus H. Christ on a bicycle…
    ——————
    Using the planning system might be more effective.

  23. “WA Labor senator Louise Pratt is set to announce her retirement from Federal politics ahead of the next election. ”

    Sadness. I think she has been valuable for Labor in the Senate. 🙁

    On the Ships thing. Will be interesting what comes out in what order in terms of the weapons fit. “Lethality” is in the title of the report after all.

    The proposed USV’s concept rely heavily on weapons (like VLS cells) being in modular, basically 20 /40ft sea-container sized units. The US has already tested a 4 cell container for the long version of Mk41.

    Put that on a smaller vessel and you could load 16 Sea Sparrow for self defense. which is useful.

    Actually, thinking about it, containerized directed energy weapons may be a coming thing.

    I’d guess its a budget thing, but personally i would like to see more of the “25 ship” light surface combatant fleet being Arafura class.

    Oh, and to dredge up an old complaint 🙁 ………… Please can someone in Govt push fitting the Canberra class with actually useful self defense capability.

  24. The environment movement was actually worried about the environment. They knew something about biodiversity.

    It was actually sad to see Bob Brown marooned high and dry by the Greens in a real forest somewhere.

    The reds have taken over and can now hardly even bother to keep the green skin in place. Sure, they astroturf koalas but even that has moved on to NIMBY stuff like climate-saving windmills wrecking the view. Or bewailing a national housing crisis while blocking housing developments in THEIR electorates. Or bewailing politicians owning multiple dwellings while owning multiple dwellings themselves. They delight in screwing over people on waiting lists by delaying housing program after housing program. The Greens used to tell somewhere near the truth to the electorate and even to themselves. What they do now is right and just and proper because any tactics at all are fair on the road to revolution.

    A million empty houses is their biggest Trumpy this year. What more to come?

  25. The changes to land taxes here were only going to effect big businesses. The only reason the full suite of Liberal Party land tax changes didnt get up was because a couple of very very wealthy Liberal party members and donors went ballistic and threatened to burn the Liberal party down.

    There were a few peeps who had invested in a lot of unused land and were not happy. They were politely told they were welcome to sell the unused land, make their profit, and let someone develop it or rent it out etc. Or just pay the tax. They realised their whinge was nothing more than greed.

  26. “There were a few peeps who had invested in a lot of unused land and were not happy. They were politely told they were welcome to sell the unused land, make their profit, and let someone develop it or rent it out etc. Or just pay the tax. They realised their whinge was nothing more than greed.”

    I love the smell of allocative efficiency in the morning.

    Right, now that I am officially procrastinating – enjoy your day everyone.

  27. While there are certainly some very dodgy workplace and supply chain issues in the two major supermarkets. There isn’t huge amount of savings to be trimmed off there profit margin. If they operated more like Aldi and had far less options. They would be cheaper but Aldi already caters for that. If all supermarkets acted like Aldi many companies would go out of business. We would also end up with far less competition between brands. As there would only be one brand stocked. In the long run this could result in problems too. Overall as far as cost of living goes there are many areas far more overpriced than food. The one that is totally over priced is housing. While the energy sector is also another. Though in that case a transition to renewables and phase into electricity only homes. Will cut the high costs in that sector significantly.

  28. FUBAR

    I can’t solve the commuting problem but this plan gives Henderson pretty long term program of work. They first finish the 6 Arafuras (4 to go), then build 8 GP frigates (15 years?), then build 6 “Optionally crewed vessels” (10 years?). There are literally 30 years of work for Perth in this plan.

  29. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 11:23 am
    Samantha Maiden turning English on its head in an endeavor to suggest Albo will call an election in 2024.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/leaked-internal-messages-suggest-anthony-albanese-will-call-election-in-2024/news-story/96d6ad614d96e6fbc926d43f67eca9b0

    ——-
    The next election should be close to 3 years after May 2022.

    However, if certain Labor people want Albanese out and have influence in the Party and want to impose someone else, choosing an early election would facilitate this.

    Albanese was not Shorten’s first choice after the May 2019 election loss.
    Interesting how he chose then, not a members and MPs vote.
    Believe it would have annoyed Shorten, whose plan from school was to be a Labor PM, for Albanese to beat him to it.

  30. “A lot of Navy for a small population so isolated it could probably get by with a navy consisting of a few strong swimmers.”

    Ahem.

    1. Australia is the only ‘continent nation’ in the world.

    2. Australia has the second largest maritime EEZ in the world (behind France, as it turns out).

    3. Australia sits athwart the confluence of THREE Oceans and to our North, the geopolitical maritime hot zone of the 21st century.

    4. Australia’s DIRECT maritime strategic interests extend from Antarctica to the equator and from the mid Indian Ocean to the cover the entire South Pacific. Even beyond that vast area of the world’s surface we have additional strategic maritime interests that extend from the Suez, to the South China Sea and beyond.

    More than enough reasons to have a navy with far more heft than our mere population size would dictate. In fact we probably have the most need of any country in the world for a very large navy. Even if we act like an Echidna: being non-threatening but prickly when needed.

  31. I still think 17 or 24 May 2025 will be the most likely Federal election date. A March election would clash with the WA State election, while going in late 2024 would clash with the Queensland state election and then the Christmas break.

    Sure it would involve campaigning over Easter, which inconveniently is in the same week as Anzac day in late April that year, but there’s still most of May to get back into it.

  32. Albo will certainly be keeping his election options open. The possibility of a 2024 Federal election will be live until it isn’t (~October). Basically, if Labor has a strong lead in the polls come September, there will almost certainly be an election in 2024, otherwise it will be March or May 2025.

  33. Entropy says . . .

    “There isn’t huge amount of savings to be trimmed off there profit margin. If they operated more like Aldi and had far less options. They would be cheaper but Aldi already caters for that. If all supermarkets acted like Aldi many companies would go out of business.”

    Agree that there is more profit in Bunnings which is why Wesfarmers refloated Coles, but could it be that supermarkets have seasonality and high waste issues

    “If all supermarkets acted like Aldi many companies would go out of business. We would also end up with far less competition between brands.”
    Interesting . . . . most supermarket products are manufactured by a few multinationals like Unilever from toothpaste, cleaning products, Arnotts biscuits or is that Liptons

    “As there would only be one brand stocked. In the long run this could result in problems too.”
    True . . . as we were reminded when covid struck in 2020 that Kimberly Clarke were on the verge of closing their Australian plant and importing toilet paper from China

    “totally over priced is housing. While the energy sector is also another”
    True
    Housing . . . governments should build affordable housing without relying on developers
    Energy sector . . . shame Liberal Premier Kennett sold off Victoria’s SEC and our electricity costs so much to provide fat salaries and bonuses to 18 boards of directors instead of salary to 1 well paid Commissioner

  34. Dutton still spinning and lying about Border Force on 3AW right wing radio. Even his own appointment to head Border Force has called him out over his lies. It appears that Dutton just wishes to “dog whistle” to people smugglers. After his numerous failures in recent weeks. He appears to be getting incredibly desperate. If he believes “dog whistling” to people smugglers to come to Australia is the answer. To turn around his political misfires over the last month. Though we know that far more illegal so called “au pairs” came in during Dutton’s period in the Home Affairs Ministry than at any other time. A shameful record indeed.

  35. “Albanese was not Shorten’s first choice after the May 2019 election loss.”

    As a bloke who’d been given a fair crack at two elections as leader but failed to convert (and there is no real criticism from me about that, despite several missteps along the way) Shorten had about as much agency as to who should lead the FPLP as I did as a mere card carrying branch member.

    Frankly ‘oh no, not Albo’ was unlikely to be the real source of Bill’s hurt and frustration. More likley it was that his boyhood dream of being PM was thwarted by … democracy.

    As it turned out, once the National Right indicated factional support for Albo, no one else threw their hat into the ring. So neither Shorten or I had a say in that. Boo Hoo.

  36. ‘Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 12:09 pm

    BW,

    You’ve come around then. Glad to hear it.’
    ———————
    I’ve always supported it. Including face-to-face with my neighbours who do not like it at all.

  37. “A lot of Navy for a small population so isolated it could probably get by with a navy consisting of a few strong swimmers.”

    Lol!

    Major port on the east side of the Indian Ocean. Resupply for the RAN and our allies in terms of munitions, food and fuel. Major UW testing range in the southern hemisphere. Shiplift / drydock and repair facilities for smaller submarines and warships at the moment, and if Henderson is going to be building 7 – 9k ton ships in the future that will expand. Plenty of room in Cockburn Sound for larger, floating drydock in the future perhaps??

    Nope, Is not hard to argue that HMAS Stirling in W.A. is pretty significant to Australian national security.

  38. There isn’t huge amount of savings to be trimmed off there profit margin.

    Thats what the CEo would say. But Woolworths share price has doubled in 8 years. Profits are very high. And sure, the margin appears low but there is an argument that they spend an awful amount of money on anticompetitive behaviour. Not only could those costs be freed up for lower prices while maintaining existing margins but those practices create less competition and makes for inefficiencies and bloating at the top of the company.

    What makes me guffaw is talk that we need duopolies and monopolies because of economies of scale by the same people who would scream high murder at nationalisation of any sector because, oh yeah, thats right, competition is essential.

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