Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

An anti-climactic return for Newspoll, despite the seemingly game-changing event of the tax cuts backflip.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year shows no change to the status quo after the tax cuts backflip or anything else to have happened over the holiday period, with Labor retaining its 52-48 two-party lead from the mid-December poll. Only minor changes are recorded on the primary vote, with Labor up a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 7%.

Questions on the tax cuts found 62% believed the government had done the right thing, but oddly only 38% felt they would be better off. Preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged at 46-35 in favour of Anthony Albanese, while at this stage we only have net results on the two leaders’ ratings: Albanese down a point to minus nine, Peter Dutton down four to minus 13. A number of gaps here should be filled when The Australian publishes full results tables.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1245.

UPDATE: Albanese is steady on 42% approval and up one on disapproval to 51%, while Dutton is down two to 37% and up two to 50%. The 38% better off figure turns out to contrast with only 18% for worse off, with 37% opting for about the same and 7% uncommitted. The 62% support rating compared with 29% opposed and 9% uncommitted. Both questions emphasised that the changes would be to the advantage of lower and middle income earners.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,140 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Shogun I appreciate your promptness in clarifying your original comment.

    I’m sure WB will take this into consideration of your case

  2. ”They forgot about us Cave Dwellers.”

    They joined a few months later after they passed a second referendum (the first one failed). They were able to get on board from day 1.

    The door is still open for NZ, but it’s probably too late to join as a founding state.

  3. Sceptic @ #2025 Thursday, February 8th, 2024 – 6:32 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 6:06 pm
    Can you run for an office you can’t hold?

    They neglect to mention that the States control the voting eligibility rules, the so called 50 State solution. That is where the enabling legislation resides. Some say who is on ballots othered who is counted etc.

    Even if the electors voted in Trump as a write-in candidate the States could / would nominate another candidate to receive their Electoral Collage votes… for Trump you can run but can’t win … it’s OVER

    Soc, yes, but not neglected to the extent that their remit for the piece was a focus on the Supreme Court.

  4. Talk earlier of Greece invading Turkey to secure the Hagia Sophia.

    Would be awkward as both are NATO members, so how would Article 5 be applied?

    Article 5

    The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

  5. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 7:30 pm

    Talk earlier of Greece invading Turkey to secure the Hagia Sophia.

    Would be awkward as both are NATO members, so how would Article 5 be applied?

    Article 5

    The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.’
    ———————————-
    Greece would be thrashed again if it tried to invade Turkey.

  6. Unexpected intervention in debate by Dom Perrottet. There may be movement in the Force…

    NSWAn hour ago
    Perrottet blasts unchecked immigration as ‘Ponzi scheme’
    In a rare public appearance since the election, ex-premier Dominic Perrottet called for Canberra to compensate states for immigration, while saying everything – including negative gearing – reform should be on the agenda to build more houses.

    http://www.dailyrupert.com.au

  7. TPOF

    Yes, there is some very interesting history about WA and the creation of the Commonwealth. The referendum to join was narrowly won by the pro group, and only then due to the massive yes vote by new arrivals on the Goldfields. If gold hadn’t been discovered, WA would have voted to go it alone.

    The Goldfields residents, probably realising the closeness of the vote, had a proposal for a state called Aurelia based on the Eastern Goldfields and the Port at Esperence that would have became a part of Australia while the rest of WA was excluded.

    Of course we then had the referendum for secession from Australia carried by two thirds majority in 1933 but it was rejected by the British Government in London. The British Government didn’t lose the right to overturn Australian Law until 1986 when we had the Hawke Labor Government.

  8. Sprocket I’d be happy to see Greece successfully invade and occupy Turkey. They’ve completely regressed into an extreme Islamist entity and the recent sleight of hand style dealing with the Ukraine situation. The nation is no longer fit to be in NATO either

  9. LVT
    I guess you are referring to the Watson government, as Labor came third in the 1903 election and all members of the government except Henry Higgins the Protectionist Attorney General were therefore not members of the two major parties. Of course, it could also be argued that all Country and Nationals ministers were not members of the two major parties.

    Higgins is the only non Labor member of a federal Labor government

  10. Granny Anny:

    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 7:18 pm

    [‘They forgot about us Cave Dwellers.’]

    Reference is made to para 3 of the preamble:

    [‘3. Proclamation of Commonwealth

    It shall be lawful for the Queen, with the advice of the Privy Council, to declare by proclamation that, on and after a day therein appointed, not being later than one year after the passing of this Act, the people of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Queensland, and Tasmania, and also, if Her Majesty is satisfied that the people of Western Australia have agreed thereto, of Western Australia, shall be united in a Federal Commonwealth under the name of the Commonwealth of Australia. But the Queen may, at any time after the proclamation, appoint a Governor-General for the Commonwealth.’]

  11. the cleaners need to be put through Google
    if Iuse private browser window to search I often get this message..

    About this page

    Our systems have detected unusual traffic from your computer network. This page checks to see if it’s really you sending the requests, and not a robot. Why did this happen?

    Never happens when not using private browser.. Google deliberately forcing you to allow cookies.. verboten in the EU!

  12. Steve:

    ”The industrial relations playing field is shifting in favour of workers. Employers are furious”

    About bloody time.

    Indeed.

    That headline put a big grin on my face as I imagined how a former boss of a mine – a total sociopath who used to put newspaper clippings of Tony Abbott up in the break room and once spent days angrily lashing out at his subordinates after a FWA ruling on penalty rates didn’t go his way – would be reacting to these developments.

  13. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 7:30 pm
    Talk earlier of Greece invading Turkey to secure the Hagia Sophia.

    Would be awkward as both are NATO members, so how would Article 5 be applied?

    Article 5

    The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    ———————————————+—————————-
    Turkey and Greece both joined NATO in 1952. Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 and met armed resistance from Greek and Greek Cypriot forces. I don’t remember NATO doing much about it.

  14. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 6:38 pm
    Kathryn Campbell’s job in Defence came about, Irene, because, as a Public Servant, she couldn’t just be sacked. There are protocols for dismissal. So she was moved until such time as there was a watertight case for her to be shown the door. Otherwise she could have brought an Unfair Dismissal case against the government.

    But hey, what’s another fact-free hit job on the federal government between friends, eh, Irene?

    ———-
    The Michael West article, written by ex Senator Rex Patrick, who is on a mission to use many Freedom of Information (FOI) requests to expose bad behaviour of this Labor government is full of facts.

    It wasn’t about her being sacked.

    It was how, about 5 weeks after the Labor government was elected, she was promoted by PM Albanese away from her job overseeing trauma and deaths in the department running Robodebt to a plum Defence department job.

    The face of RoboDebt now (did ) fills a Senior Executive Service Band 3 role inside Defence’s AUKUS submarine program. She retains her previous DFAT secretary’s remuneration package of almost $900K. She’s contracted for three years. The job comes with an overseas posting down track, meaning at some point Campbell will also be living in either Washington DC or London at taxpayer’s expense.

    Albanese’s choice was to move her to a job which has overseas posting opportunities as well as retaining her $900,000 annual salary.

    That fits OK with you C@t? Of course, in line with most Labor policy this was kept secret.

    Another example how Labor supports wealthier Australians. No matter how badly they behave.

    And there was Bill Shorten, establishing the Robodebt Royal Commission, to enhance his reputation, while hiding and supporting financially the public servant, Kathryn Campbell, who was directly responsible for Robodebt suicides. With her cruelty towards poorer Australians.

    See the pattern?

    This sneaky Labor behaviour needs to be examined by the NACC.

  15. Asha

    as might be expected The West Australian is all doom and gloom for WA’s resources industry with Labor’s IR reforms.

    Trouble is we’ve heard it all before.

    Last I looked our various mining billionaires and and multi-millionaires weren’t in the queue at Centrelink.

  16. Irenesays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 8:43 pm
    This sneaky Labor behaviour needs to be examined by the NACC.
    ====================================================

    I read what you wrote but still don’t know what the actual corrupt behaviour you want the NACC to investigate against Labor is though?.
    Wouldn’t it be better for NACC to investigate Kathryn Campbell for Industrial manslaughter or similar such charge?. As charging Labor of corruption for protecting someone that no actual charges have been applied to seems stupid to me. It is like getting charged for aiding and abetting a criminal but no actual criminal charges were applied to person you aided and abetted.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 6:38 pm
    Kathryn Campbell’s job in Defence came about, Irene, because, as a Public Servant, she couldn’t just be sacked. There are protocols for dismissal. So she was moved until such time as there was a watertight case for her to be shown the door. Otherwise she could have brought an Unfair Dismissal case against the government.

    But hey, what’s another fact-free hit job on the federal government between friends, eh, Irene?

    ————
    Your comprehension skills are lacking.

    The issue was that about 5 weeks after Labor won the May 2022 election, Kathryn Campbell was promoted by PM Albanese to a 3 year contact in the Defence Department managing AUKUS.

    After overseeing much trauma and suicides of poor people caught up with fake debt notices under her watch, Albanese thought she deserved another well paid job.

    Read the Rex Patrick article in Michael West media again. Nothing to do with being sacked.

  18. I think Irene is pointing out that Campbell was not sacked by the new government right away. Seeing that the Libs seem to have no problem sacking departmental secretaries.

  19. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 8:41 pm

    Duttons new found slow, calm deep & quiet speech pattern wont last.. once a thug always a thug.. Lets see what their next focus group wants changed.. Dutton could be using Thatchers speech therapist 😉

  20. In WA the premier is about to sign a nickel agreement with Indonesia you know the country that has trashed the nickel market illegally costing 1000s of Australians jobs.

    Mind you putting locals second is no surprise the state government is advertising for international teachers when numerous local teachers are being excluded .

    The state gov today for a second time has stuffed up the sale of WA tab says afr both companies say it’s not commercially viable to buy at that price.

    Labor state gov WA is starting to decay.

  21. Especially seeing that Campbell had already outraged many by her senate inquiry appearance in 2017 when she blamed the victims of robodebt for not “engaging”.

  22. Irenesays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 8:43 pm
    This sneaky Labor behaviour needs to be examined by the NACC.
    ==================================================

    Though if the NACC can examine Labor for not sacking Campbell. It also can examine Campbells actions too. The fact that it hasn’t. Suggest it is the NACC and not Labor that is responsible for Campbell still being there. Which means the NACC needs to investigate itself over this. Anyway this is what i conclude when i use @Irene logic.

  23. I think Campbell should have been sacked, FWIW. Give her her two weeks notice – or whatever her contract requires – and that’s that. She clearly isn’t fit for any role that requires acting in the national interest.

    (Also, why in the fucking fuck is anybody in the public service being paid nearly a million dollars a year! I don’t bemoan senior public servants getting a decent salary for what I assume are quite demanding roles – and I’m usually the first to argue against those demanding the public service be thinned out – but Jesus fucking Christ, that’s just so insanely high it boggles the mind!)

  24. If Irene is bitter and twisted about the way the Government was too soft on Campbell, as a citizen she can refer it to the NACC. If I gambled I would bet London to a brick that they would not act on her complaint.

  25. Asha @ #2081 Thursday, February 8th, 2024 – 9:16 pm

    I think Campbell should have been sacked, FWIW. Give her her two weeks notice – or whatever her contract requires – and that’s that.

    (Also, why in the fucking fuck is anybody in the public service being paid nearly a million dollars a year! I don’t bemoan senior public servants getting a decent salary for what I assume are quite demanding roles, but Jesus fucking Christ, that’s just so insanely high it boggles the mind!)

    Let’s call it for what it was under the Coalition…Facilitation Payments. You put someone in a top job in the PS and they facilitate your policies, without question.

  26. ‘Australia’s foreign minister says she has spoken with the United Nations aid agency in Gaza as new reports emerge questioning Israel’s claims that its staff were involved in the October 7 terrorist attacks.

    Australia was one of a group of countries to suspend aid to UNRWA after Israel presented evidence to the UN that 12 of the Palestinian refugee agency’s workers had links to Hamas or were involved in the attacks in southern Israel.

    The agency responded to Israel’s allegations by terminating the contracts of some staff members, as well as launching an internal investigation.

    British news outlet Channel 4 claims to have seen the the dossier that Israel provided to the UN. The media outlet reported that it contained “no evidence” to back up the claims.

    Foreign Minister Penny Wong was questioned whether she was aware of the report but did not directly answer.’

    Source: abc.net.au

    Australia was not just ‘one of a group of countries to suspend aid to UNRWA’, we were amongst the first to join the U.S. in doing so. If it turns out that Israel’s claim to have evidence that a small number of UNRWA staff were involved in the Hamas October terrorist attack proves to be bullshit, Penny Wong should resign.

  27. Pied Pipersays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 9:05 pm
    In WA the premier is about to sign a nickel agreement with Indonesia you know the country that has trashed the nickel market illegally costing 1000s of Australians jobs.
    ======================================

    Indonesia has had a ban on the export of nickel ore over the last decade. Can you explain how Australian nickel mining jobs were lost by that ban?. Which actually helped Australian nickel mines export more than if the ban didn’t exist, you nincompoop.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/indonesia-minerals/indonesian-mineral-export-ban-drives-up-australia-nickel-miners-idUSS9N0IQ01Q20140112/

  28. Let’s call it for what it was under the Coalition…Facilitation Payments. You put someone in a top job in the PS and they facilitate your policies, without question.

    Yes.

    That’s why the incoming Labor government should have sacked her as soon as they legally could do so, rather than move her into another senior role with an eye-wateringly high salary.

  29. Rainman @ 9.21

    I think Penny Wong was brilliant tonight on 7.30. She is the best foreign minister we have had since Gareth Evans – probably better in my opinion.

    It’s sickening the way that senior Australian politicians who have to deal with incredibly complex situations across multiple cultures and alliances are trashed by know-nothings who are obsessed by one conflict in a world full of conflicts.

  30. Rainmansays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 9:21 pm
    Australia was not just ‘one of a group of countries to suspend aid to UNRWA’, we were amongst the first to join the U.S. in doing so. If it turns out that Israel’s claim to have evidence that a small number of UNRWA staff were involved in the Hamas October terrorist attack proves to be bullshit, Penny Wong should resign.

    =================================================

    I think this is the most idiotic thing i’ve ever seen you write. It makes me wonder if you secretly support Dutton and his agenda here. As he would be one to benefit most from what you suggest. As Dutton wants funding to the UNRWA to remain suspended. While Wong is best hope for it being restored.

  31. Entropysays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 9:23 pm
    Pied Pipersays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 9:05 pm
    In WA the premier is about to sign a nickel agreement with Indonesia you know the country that has trashed the nickel market illegally costing 1000s of Australians jobs.
    ===================================================

    Lets just hope the Pied Piper doesn’t work in the super industry. So in 2014 when Indonesia banned export of nickel ore to other countries. Pied Piper would have thought this a bad thing and sold Australian nickel miner shares. Even though they actually shot up 10% on the announcement. So who is wrong about this the market or Pied Piper?.

  32. Australia’s decision to suspend aid to the UNRWA was no small matter.

    ‘The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which is the main humanitarian agency in Gaza, has been facing an unprecedented funding crisis after its main international donors led by the United States cut its funding over “terror” allegations.

    The UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini has dubbed the steps to suspend funding an “additional collective punishment” for Palestinians already reeling from nearly four months of non-stop Israeli bombardment.’

    Source: aljazera.com

    Anyone prepared to toss ministerial standards in the bin because they believe that to hold our Foreign Minister to account, for what may turn out to be an appalling and unwarranted U.S. kiss arse decision, would benefit Dutton in our domestic politics is a Labor hack.

    “Political hack” is a pejorative term describing a person who is more loyal to a particular political party than to their own sense of ethics.

    Source: wikipedia

  33. Have you ever worked in the Public Service, Asha? meher baba and TPOF have and so did my late husband. I’m sure the others could tell you about the byzantine regulations covering dismissal from the Public Service.

  34. Rainmansays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 9:51 pm
    ====================================================

    What actual Ministerial standard are you claiming Wong broke then?.

    Note: Acting on advice is not breaking Ministerial standards. Even if that advice is subsequently proved wrong. Unless you knew the advice was wrong.

  35. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 9:59 pm
    Have you ever worked in the Public Service, Asha? meher baba and TPOF have and so did my late husband. I’m sure the others could tell you about the byzantine regulations covering dismissal from the Public Service.

    _________________________________________

    They could have sacked her on day 1, like Howard and Abbott sacked Department Heads. However, without clear evidence of malfeasance they would have had to pay out her contract. So she would have still been paid the salary of the DFAT secretary for two or three years and been able to go on to other work as the victim of a vindictive new government (as happened to almost all of Howard’s and Abbott’s victims).

    I suspect that moving her to Defence on her salary probably was more shaming than sacking her outright. As for Pezzullo, I am surprised he was kept in his role. Although justice was served in the end.

  36. That Kathryn Campbell was retained for any length of time was, and remains, a terrible decision by the incoming Govt. Its no excuse that she was sidelined to a do nothing program such as AUKUS.

    The Pezzullo decision was equally as gobsmacking. Look how that turned out. Maybe if Dutton gets elected Mike can rule the roost once more. I am not looking forward to that.

  37. VCT Et3e says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 10:19 pm

    ____________________________________________

    I think you would be an excellent candidate for benching after that blatant piece of moratorium breaking shit.

  38. Thanks, TPOF. I knew you’d have the answers. 🙂

    I’d also add that the government probably knew already about Kathryn Campbell and Melissa Golightly(deceased now), who seemed to be the two major culprits, but wanted to do things by the book to make sure there was no comeback.

  39. TPOF:

    Ah, I stand corrected, then.

    Still, it begs the question as to why these department heads are paid so bloody much. The Prime Minister doesn’t make that much!

    Also, a contract that guarantees employment for 2-3 years sounds pretty ridiculous to me. Is this common across the public service? Or is it just the bigwigs that get those perks?

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