Monday miscellany (open thread)

A preselection opponent for Tim Wilson in Goldstein, update on the Queensland by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat, and Eric Abetz announces a state comeback bid.

Three items of electoral relevance to emerge amidst the New Year news and polling drought:

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Stephanie Hunt, corporate lawyer and former legal adviser to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, will seek Liberal preselection for Goldstein, which Tim Wilson hopes to recover after losing to independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Wilson remains the front-runner, in the estimation of a further report in The Age today.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, is the front-runner to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk in her seat of Inala, the by-election for which is “tipped to be held in March”. Palaszczuk’s former deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley, had long been mentioned as her likely successor, but he has withdrawn from contention, saying the party’s gender quota rules played a “big factor” in the decision.

Sue Bailey of the Sunday Tasmanian reports that veteran former Liberal Senator and conservative stalwart Eric Abetz will seek state preselection in the division of Franklin for an election due in June next year, assuming Jeremy Rockliff’s government is able to keep the show on the road that long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Monday miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. If the Australian govt was serious about a peaceful two state solution it would and should be part of any UN peacekeeping operations.

  2. Countries rated by inflation. ALP doing poorly compared to governments in many places.

    Venezuela: 283%
    Lebanon: 212%
    Argentina: 161%
    Turkey: 64.7%
    Iran: 39.2%
    Egypt: 34.6%
    Pakistan: 29.7%
    Nigeria: 28.2%
    Colombia: 10.1%
    Kazakhstan: 9.8%
    Algeria: 8.9%
    Hungary: 7.9%
    Russia: 7.5%
    Poland: 6.1%
    Sweden: 5.8%
    Austria: 5.6%
    India: 5.55%
    South Africa: 5.5%
    Australia: 5.4%
    Ukraine: 5.1%
    Norway: 4.8%
    Brazil: 4.68%
    Mexico: 4.32%
    UAE: 4.27%
    Philippines: 3.9%
    Ireland: 3.9%
    UK: 3.9%
    Germany: 3.7%
    France: 3.7%
    Singapore: 3.6%
    Finland: 3.3%
    Israel: 3.3%
    South Korea: 3.2%
    Spain: 3.1%
    US: 3.1%
    Canada: 3.1%
    Greece: 3%
    Japan: 2.8%
    Indonesia: 2.61%
    Saudi Arabia: 1.7%
    Malaysia: 1.5%
    Switzerland: 1.4%
    Netherlands: 1.2%
    Denmark: 0.6%
    Italy: 0.59%
    China: -0.5%
    Thailand: -0.83%

  3. Ferries in Hobart, any transport experts able to comment on the feasibility of the newest proposal?

    No new park and ride facilities seems to be a feasibility project killer in my mind. It’s about 15km by water between Kingston and Hobart (the ferry I’d be interested in). Currently there’s esplanade style parking but that is already at capacity just through normal beach day use.

    Master plan website:https://engage.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/river-derwent-ferry-service-masterplan-consultation

    ABC article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-14/tas-proposed-locations-for-hobart-ferry-terminals-released/103098518

    My google maps image

  4. I think it’s past time the Australian government pressed the UN to intervene in the ME situation with a peace keeping force.

    Work your magic Albo !

    Some serious A-grade-level delusion there… and why would Albo want anything to do
    with hamas child killers?

  5. Most amusing.

    The usual bashers line up to attack Plibersek. If she had approved the development, the line would have been that she is destroying wetlands and migratory waterbird habitat. Easy as.

    I have contributed to ecological surveys, to management planning, to environmental communications and to environmental repair (such as planting mangroves) in Westernport. Oh yes, and I have bagged out on King George Whiting.

    In terms of the policy implications:

    1. Westernport’s ecology is remarkably intact. Elements that were going backwards have been managed towards recovery. (Yeah, yeah. The bureaucracy went mad.) These include mangrove regrowth, sea grass regrowth, fish biomass, and water turbidity. These recoveries are all direct consequences of positive land- and sea- management by government agencies and NGOs over the last three decades or so. Decisions not to build a bridge to French Island have created an ark. Decisions and actions to reverse ecological decline on Philip Island have further enhanced the Bay’s status. The elimination of commercial fishing has seen major recoveries of fish populations including King George Whiting. Undeveloped near-shore wetlands feed Orange-bellied Parrots and support relict populations of Growling Grass Frog. Westernport Bay therefore stands in stark contrast to most of near urban major marine waterways in Australia and in the rest of the world. It is actually one of the few marine ecological areas in the whole of Australia (and indeed of the world) that is improving.

    2. Much of Westernport’s shoreline is flat and muddy. Deep mud. Viscous mud. Dig a channel and you create a turbid mud cloud. Then the mud oozes back in. Mangrove mud. The resulting silt cloud moves back and forth, choking sea grass (as in the past). It can be done, of course. But one of the majo reasons why Westernport’s shorelines have been so little developed is that glorious mud.

    3. That mud supports a healthy population of natural critters including shore birds.

    4. Those shorebirds are subject to international treaties.

    5. Those shorebirds are subject to the EPBC Act. The Act is under review. (A critical reform of the Act would include fossil fuel extraction as a trigger. My view, FWIW, is if it IS included as a trigger then Labor would lose the next election. So, Dutton and Bandt would love to see that trigger included.)

    6. All those factors constrain and enable Plibersek in making ministerial decisions.

    7. The over-riding priority must be climate action to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees. However there is close to zero sign in the world generally that humanity is going to achieve below 2.5 degrees.

    8. Regardless of 7 Australia must commit and attain zero net 50. Windfarms are a crucial element.

    9. Part of the priorities must, therefore, be to build resilience into Australia. This involves shifting 300-400,000 dwellings higher and out of the bush. It involves, from a biodiversity point of view, taking action to keep ecosystems as healthy as possible. It involves developing a national plan for allowing ecosystems to evolve without pressure and to move along horizontal and vertical clines. As a matter of interest, because its shoreline is relatively intact, there is considerable prospect for the Bay to move inland along the new shorelines created by rising sea levels. The return of the Great Kooweerup Swamp – once one of Australia’s massive wetlands – beckons.

    10. Inevitably there is a conflict between building in resilience and in implementing climate action. My general view is that climate action should have priority over everything else. Unconstrained by consequences or by legislation, therefore, I would have supported the windfarm and would have accepted the massive destruction of Westernport values. But then I would also close down Australia’s tourism industry tomorrow and put tariffs on all embedded CO2 emissions on imports. Plibersek has neither of those two options.

    11. Elsewhere the decisions look easier in terms of conflicting practical outcomes. Removing the nations’ domestic stock from the range lands and the arid zone would enable a significant growth in inland ecosystem resilience. Once again the political constraints are problematic.

    Zero net fifty? In your dreams.

    #plus 2.5 degrees with our pants down around our ankles.

  6. Re: Plibersek
    It’s a long-game in a short game political environment. Yes, the left are held to much higher standards than the right and Rachel Blaxendale gets her ‘jollies’ today but they know it’s a losing battle and the environment must win.

  7. steve davis @ #105 Monday, January 8th, 2024 – 11:37 am

    If its Hobart it will never happen.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    But it seems to be a tourist usage proposal and not a real transport solution. Sure it’d be nice for tourists to get to see the cliffs along that part of the river and Kingston Beach itself is quite nice, if a little cold for a swim.

    Door to door by car I can get from my house, park in a multistory, and walk to somewhere in the CBD in 20 minutes, 30 in peak. Door to door the ferry would be closer to an hour journey, so just not feasible for a daily commute.

  8. There must be something in wetlands that summons our ancestral memories of emerging out of the ocean and developing legs to crawl along the mud.

  9. Trolling Stoogesays:
    Monday, January 8, 2024 at 10:55 am
    The wetlands have to be protected. Very simple. The engineers can find an alternative location for a port. Plibersek is right.

    ——————————————————————

    The first lot of wind farms will be offshore of Golden Beach. Which is a long way from Western Port Bay. So obviously a range of other Ports can be considered. I think they should look at Port Henry where the decommissioned Alcoa smelter was. It is in Port Philip Bay but as far as taking things to Golden Beach it is not much further.

  10. We can’t send peacekeepers until there’s a peace to keep. UN peacekeepers don’t fight wars, they monitor the situation once there is a ceasefire and some sort of peace agreement. That doesn’t look like happening any time soon.

    As for whether Australia should take part when the time comes, do we really want to involves ourselves? Would we even be acceptable to all parties, give that we would be seen as close to the USA and pro Israel?

  11. steve davis @ #110 Monday, January 8th, 2024 – 11:48 am

    MI
    They’ve tried for years for a cable car to the top of Wellington and look whats happened to that.

    Because there is massive public antipathy to the cable car and it is political poison

    “The development application, lodged with council by the Mount Wellington Cableway Company, received 16,500 public representations about the project — a record number of representations ever received by the council.” ABC 2021.

    The ferry service does have support at this point, The Mercury cites most of the 2000 people who participated in an open survey as supporting (a poll that is not a poll), but clearly not the level of public opposition as the cable car proposal. I’d like to see the modeling behind it though because the master plan is just a marketing document at this point when there is no park and ride facilities proposed.

  12. Hammer blow for Anthony Albanese’s plan for Australia to become a republic as minister makes a three-word admission and ABC anchor slaps him with brutal question
    Labor MP grilled over position as Assistant Minister for the Republic
    Admitted the push for a republic ‘isn’t a priority’

    This is what happens when your racist referendum fails!

    Even his besties at the Abc mock him!

  13. An explosive device has been planted on a car outside a Sydney home that was flying the Palestinian flag, triggering police to send a bomb disposal robot. NSW Police were called to a street in Botany following reports of a “suspicious item” on a car bonnet at 2pm on Friday.
    They found a dark green jerry can with a small amount of fuel inside, along with rags stuffed into the open lid, large bolts taped to the side and a disposable lighter taped to the top.
    They described it as an “inert improvised explosive device”. Also taped to the device was a handwritten note, reading: “ENOUGH! TAKE DOWN FLAG! ONE CHANCE!!!!”
    NSW Police were told the device was planted outside a home that had displayed the Palestinian flag and had a notice board referencing the Israel-Palestine conflict.

  14. Adding paid pipes to my very short list of bloggers I have blocked.

    They say that all no voters were not necessarily racist – but all racists voted no. That is not a cohort worth running with.

    Churches should pay taxes or stop receiving government funding.

    SMRs do not exist.

    Have a nice day!

  15. steve davis @ #117 Monday, January 8th, 2024 – 12:04 pm

    MI
    Then the light rail proposal down towards Glenorchy.

    Yeah that one is interesting. The state government are trying to do it on the cheap, hence a busway instead of light rail. I discussed it with Socrates about 6 months ago on this site and his insights were of great value.

  16. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, January 8, 2024 at 11:15 am
    As the clock is ticking re the Govts emissions targets, I would expect Tanya would be lobbying Albo to help fund the relocation of the replacement Vic windfarm assembly terminal.
    _____________________
    Another stuff up from your mate Lily D’Ambrosio.
    Everything she touches turns to shit.

  17. steve davis @ #127 Monday, January 8th, 2024 – 12:24 pm

    MI
    And a Hobart bypass?

    Didnt you and I have the conversation about 4 months ago, maybe some other Hobartian. Based on current traffic flows basically it isnt needed. A city that gridlocks 3 times a year is not a city that needs a bypass.

    I’m not for or against these ideas, but I would back the modelling (if it was serious)

  18. Re: Hastings decision

    Other ports to consider include:

    – Port Welshpool / Barry Beach in Gippsland – port used to service the offshore rigs and close to Golden Beach

    – Point Henry – existing facilities but no rail access

    – Point Wilson near Avalon – ditto to above

    – Geelong – rail access and suitable cranes etc and has been used to offload wind turbines in the past

    – Portland – deep water port underutilised with rail access. Close to western district wind farms

  19. Ven @ #93 Monday, January 8th, 2024 – 11:00 am

    So P1
    What you are implying is that because Wetlands will be destroyed anyway by Climate change, let us destroy them earlier because they have no hope of surviving.

    Yes. Please consider the reverse of your logic, which is that the Wetlands must always be preserved even if they are doomed anyway if we do not act.

    Of course, if there is an alternative location, by all means use it. But if there is not, then preserving the Wetlands should not be a reason for doing nothing.

    When it comes to climate change, we have reached the point where action delayed is action denied.

  20. How much money is the following parasite in federal labor getting ?

    Assistant Minister for the Republic

    Just over one in 10 GP clinics in WA fully bulk-bills, according to new Cleanbill report

    Cheyanne Enciso
    The West Australian
    Sun, 7 January 2024 9:01PM

    Cheyanne Enciso
    A mere one in 10 GP clinics in WA fully bulk-bills — the largest decline nationally over the past year — leaving patients struggling to have their medical needs met as clinic owners grapple with surging costs.

    New data from online healthcare directory Cleanbill to be released on Monday revealed only 10.3 per cent of GP clinics in WA bulk-bill all patients, well below the waning national average of 24.2 per cent.

    Federal Labors bulk billing failure.

  21. Very heavy rain in Melbourne and Victoria. Lots of road closures and flooding.

    For those that know Melbourne, flood bingo time 🙂

    1. Dudley Street floods

    2. Ditto and expensive SUV or European car attempts to drive through and gets stuck

    3. Sandringham line flooded at Windsor station

    4. Pictures of expensive Dodge RAMs attempting to get through flood waters and failing

    5. Ditto but making huge waves and splashes on major arterials

    6. Multi-vehicle accidents on the M80 due to wet weather

    7. Shopping centre leaks or ceiling collapses

    8. Pictures of ovals under water

    Seriously though there needs to be a concerted campaign to educate drivers when in heavy rain etc, e.g. slowing down, using lights etc.

    The proliferation of more and larger SUVs has caused IMHO an increase in bad drivers etc.

  22. Grant_ExLibrissays:
    Monday, January 8, 2024 at 12:31 pm
    Re: Hastings decision
    – Point Henry – existing facilities but no rail access

    – Point Wilson near Avalon – ditto to above

    ——————————————————————-

    All the alternatives you put up a good ones. Just like to say for the two above while no rail access. Both have rail lines not that far from them. So the possibility of building a diversion line from nearby main line to either of these spots is probably feasible?

  23. Yep. Action delayed is action denied.

    Shut down now:

    1. tourism industry
    2. domestic stock industries
    3. all ICE imports

    Put an immediate tariff on embedded CO2 emissions on all other goods.

  24. Hammer blow for Anthony Albanese’s plan for Australia to become a republic as minister makes a three-word admission and ABC anchor slaps him with brutal question
    Labor MP grilled over position as Assistant Minister for the Republic
    Admitted the push for a republic ‘isn’t a priority’

    This is what happens when your racist referendum fails!

    Even his besties at the Abc mock him!

    @Pied piper

    It isn’t a priority because there is no point pursuing it when the leader of the Liberals is opportunist and a populist. And is just going to wreck anything that Labor put up. Peter Dutton isn’t a political ideologue he is just a opportunist and a populist. Its proven when he walked out of parliament with the apology to the stolen generation which would have made him a darling in the Right of the Liberals ranks. Then only then to backtrack years later and express regret when he’s position was out of step of the public’s consensus.

  25. Entropysays:
    Monday, January 8, 2024 at 11:59 am
    I think they should look at Port Henry where the decommissioned Alcoa smelter was. It is in Port Philip Bay but as far as taking things to Golden Beach it is not much further.
    _____________________
    Corio Bay to be precise and pretty sure it has been earmarked for housing once cleaned up.

  26. Effects of Queensland rain and floods will ‘weigh on our economy’: treasurer

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/jan/08/australia-news-live-updates-plane-passengers-lizard-island-el-nino-east-coast-weather-bom-radar-victoria-sydney-floods-politics-anthony-albanese-government-golden-globes-2024-cost-of-living

    ____________________

    Being a global leader in peddling fossil fuels is weighing heavily on climate change and extreme weather events.

  27. >Boerwars:
    >Monday, January 8, 2024 at 12:50 pm
    >Yep. Action delayed is action denied.
    >Shut down now:

    4)Coal exports as well?

  28. Taylormadesays:
    Monday, January 8, 2024 at 12:53 pm
    Entropysays:
    Monday, January 8, 2024 at 11:59 am
    I think they should look at Port Henry where the decommissioned Alcoa smelter was. It is in Port Philip Bay but as far as taking things to Golden Beach it is not much further.
    _____________________
    Corio Bay to be precise and pretty sure it has been earmarked for housing once cleaned up.

    ————————————————————————–

    Pretty sure Corio Bay is within Port Phillip Bay though. Last i heard no official decision on what it will be has been decided.

  29. I see the Bore is still making excuses for the fossil fuel industry by blaming anyone and anything else he can think of. Just another denier.

  30. ‘Catprog says:
    Monday, January 8, 2024 at 12:59 pm

    >Boerwars:
    >Monday, January 8, 2024 at 12:50 pm
    >Yep. Action delayed is action denied.
    >Shut down now:

    4)Coal exports as well?’
    ———————
    100%!

    …provided it is coupled with a treaty with China that it will not use coal from other sources to make up the Australian coal shortfall.

  31. Labor Government promise to bring down retail electricity prices by 2025 looks back on track. With wholesale prices really plummeting it seems. We want know by how much till late January when AEMO brings out the December Qtr 2023 figures but the data being reported in this article looks good. Note we do seem to need more batteries and other storage devices. So excess energy can be stored till lower production periods.

    I note to in this article that Dutton and the LNP are continuing to believe in unicorns. Even though unicorns still don’t exist:

    “Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and Nationals leader David Littleproud are backing small modular nuclear reactions to stabilise the grid, urging the government to overturn the nation’s two-decade ban on nuclear energy. The only company with a small modular plant approved in the US recently cancelled the project citing rising costs.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/rooftop-solar-drives-out-coal-wind-and-grid-scale-solar-20231211-p5eqmc.html

  32. 》provided it is coupled with a treaty with China that it will not use coal from other sources to make up the Australian coal shortfall.

    Why is this industry special? The other 3 do not require a treaty for China to find alternative suppliers or destinations.

  33. Plibersek delivers ‘massive blow’ to Victorian wind hub

    C’mon Tanya state labor run Victoria is bankrupt throw em a bone!

    China rare earth bans put heat on Australia to respond.

    Sucking up to communist dictatorship China by labor has been rewarded by the above.

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