I have a live results feature standing ready for service this evening, which will presume to offer projections according to a somewhat experimental method that will be explained further below, together with individual results pages by electoral division featuring booth results displayed in table and map form (click on “activate” at the bottom of the individual seat pages for the latter). It may be the only place where the latter data will be available online, not counting the Australian Electoral Commission media feed from which it will be extracted.
Some final polls are in, with pollsters collectively offering a fairly wide spread that means the contest for post-result bragging rights is wide open:
• The Australian has a Newspoll result that concurs with others in finding movement back to yes – though by an entirely insufficient three points to 37%, with no down one to 57%. The 1413 sample from this poll has been combined with 1225 sample poll from last week to produce state breakdowns with no leading 54-41 in New South Wales, 51-43 in Victoria, 65-30 in Queensland, 65-28 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-38 in Tasmania. The new batch of polling means we are also treated to a second set of Newspoll federal voting intention numbers in a week, in this case putting Labor ahead 54-46 (53-47 last week) from primary votes of Labor 36% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (up one).
• A JWS Research poll in the Financial Review has no at 52% and yes at 39%, converting to 57-43 after exclusion of the undecided. The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 922.
• The Australian related yesterday that a poll conducted from October 1 to 9 by DemosAU, whose director George Hasanakos had a polling analysis website back in the day called Poliquant, had no leading 57% to 30% in both Queensland and Western Australia.
The projection model in my results will use the seat-level estimates from Focaldata’s multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise as a baseline for measuring the results as they are reported. However much the results that are in differ from what Focaldata predicted will then be projected on to Focaldata’s overall results at state level. Doubtless this will be noiser than the booth-matched swings methods that can be applied at elections, but it should at least go some way towards correcting for the peculiarities of the early numbers.
My attention this evening will be focused on the referendum, but I will have some sort of a post up following the progress of counting in New Zealand, a dedicated thread for which is here.
Territorians votes are only counted in the total, not assigned to any State.
To call it a waste of money is to misunderstand political method.
What is politically possible cannot be known a priori, no matter how often one is told bipartisanship or don’t bother.
FNs people have been given the opportunity to test the generosity of their fellow countryfolk. That is worth knowing, however depressing.
davidh
Two part referendum – that was from memory the Republic Referendum in 1999. I and non-Labor partner both voted ‘yes’ to both : the first was a new preamble which recognised indigenous Australians.
Made no difference- both questions went down. Republic got 45%, preamble 39%
Lefty_e
Yes will be funny to see Dutton, Littleproud et al running away from their great ‘triumph’ and instead blaming everything (as usual, now seeming to include all problems in the Middle East) on Albanese.
Of course in the ‘long game’ Dutton probably knows that this has put the chance of winning back any of those Teal seats into the never-never. I certainly expect the Teals to run hard on it in 2025.
The Greens will say a No result is all Labor’s fault, but will attempt to take credit for a Yes result.
Greens voters are overwhelmingly voting Yes. Labor voters… not so much.
My experiences from the day so far:
One of the ‘No’ guys on this morning brought a bluetooth speaker with him, and apparently the ‘No’ campaign have a song as well. So, on repeat, endlessly, was, ‘I am, You are, We are Australian’. 🙄
Same guy was telling everyone who walked in, ‘You can’t put a tick or a cross in the box’. We were told not to talk to the ‘No’ people, but I had to go up to him and tell him that what he was saying was just plain wrong.
Also, the ‘No’ posters which have been chosen by the ‘No’ campaign to place outside of the polling places, say, ‘No to Division’ and have Warren Mundine and Jacinta Price, large as life on them. Way to mislead people that that’s what Indigenous Australians want. 😐
Good point Nicholas. Also funny how many Greens MPs aren’t supporting YES, while all Labor MPs are. Go figure!
The most beautiful part of the day was when an Indigenous man came up to me after he voted and thanked me for what I was doing. Then he said, “We have simply reached out our hand and asked people to join with us.” Then he put out his hand and held mine. 🙂
Bonzasays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 11:15 am
My observation of my own immediate family is that their no votes are simply a result of only getting their coverage from Ch7/9 etc, where the false talking points were never properly countered
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Exactly and the yes campaign took a long time to run an ad campaign but by the time they did its message wasn’t clear and the polls were well set.
Had the same experience yesterday at pre-poll, Catmomma. Makes it all worthwhile
”
Pisays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 1:11 pm
peggy “Albo sneers ”
Never fkn happened. The votes haven’t even been counted and already the LNP voters are stating “i voted yes, not like those other guys. It’s Albos fault”
”
I predicted that a couple of weeks ago.
But make no mistake. If referendum fails it Dutton and Co and L-NP faults. No ifs, no buts
Lefty_e @ #60 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 3:35 pm
And that’s why it will break my heart if a majority of Australians bat the hand away.
”
Griffsays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 1:25 pm
Sky says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 1:17 pm
There was no bringing Dutton across to yes. It is delusional to say that there was. His 15 questions were not an attempt to gain common ground, they were groundwork for the campaign that followed
Dutton knows full well how Parliament works and how it interacts with the constitution. He was also a minister throughout the majority of the process of creating the amendment we are now voting on. He was invited to and involved in the process at every step
The ALP really only had two options. Go ahead with the referendum that had been opposed by and continues to be opposed by political opportunists on the conservative side of politics. And probably fail. Or not do it at all and guarantee it doesn’t happen
__________
This. You just cannot get a person that boycotts an apology to the Stolen Generation to say Yes to a voice for the same people. Simples.
And if Albo pulled the referendum after Dutton was voted Opposition Leader then it doesn’t happen and Albo is portrayed as a coward a la Rudd and climate change. This is a worse outcome. Also simples.
”
You can only take horse (Dutton) to a pond (Referendum). You cannot make it drink the water ( Vote Yes).
”
Poor Cameronsays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 2:33 pm
Will not having No campaigners out the front make a difference?
I went to my polling place in South Western Sydney there was not one NO sign or person there, Only YES people handing out how to votes
”
Same is the case in my SW Sydney Liberal party seat. About 5 Yes signages and Not a single No poster. One Yes HTV volunteer and no NO HTV volunteer ( atleast not at gates)
The only people screaming that a No victory is Dutton’s “fault” are Labor people. On the Lib / Nat side, there’s no fault to be found – their side’s winning!
Still though, it’s not a success for Dutton, and he probably won’t be Lib leader in a year’s time. Look at the polling: while Yes sinks like a stone, the ALP 2pp stays stubbornly in the 53-54% range. He’s successfully convinced a large number of Labor voters to vote No, while completely failing to convince those same people to vote Liberal. Sure, it’s nice to have the referendum win, but as of next Monday, his focus has to be back on winning the 2025 election. He can’t do that, so he’ll be replaced. (With who, though?)
”
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 3:29 pm
The most beautiful part of the day was when an Indigenous man came up to me after he voted and thanked me for what I was doing. Then he said, “We have simply reached out our hand and asked people to join with us.” Then he put out his hand and held mine.
”
Very touching. Hopefully That must have melted your anger and disgust the No Campaign.
Nicholas @ #55 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 3:18 pm
The result no doubt hinges on Labor voters.
Windhover
We didn’t need to spend $300m to find that out.
Diogenes @ #68 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 4:05 pm
Yes we did. It was the smallest price to pay for the generous gesture of respecting the request of Indigenous Australians and the Uluru Statement From the Heart.
@Nicholas:”Greens voters are overwhelmingly voting Yes. Labor voters… not so much.”
This is true, yet the political parties are the reverse – the Greens were dragged grudgingly to support Yes, there’s still a Thorpist rump in there, they have been AWOL on the campaign even while their voters are out in droves volunteering.
While the ALP’s voter base is divided on this issue but the politicians have been wholeheartedly pro Yes.
The hard left faction of the Greens is still loyal to Thorpe, despite her not formally being in the party.
The so called “Blak Greens” are no better than Price and Mundine.
Another thought: the scare campaign “if you vote No, you’re with Dutton, Hanson and Littleproud!” is a rear-guard action It’s aimed fair-and-square at Labor (or Green) No voters – nobody else.
Telling Liberal voters they’re on the same side as their own party’s leader is not the mind-changer some people seem to think it is.
My final prediction, No with 60.89%. Also, NZ Labor to be reduced to 32-36 seats. Nostradamus Out!
When we went there were no other voters other than us. The ballot paper was such a simple proposition. I still can’t understand why people want to vote No.
Identification and voting took 2-3 minutes.
It is a Liberal party seat both at federal and state level. As I posted earlier there were no ‘No’ volunteers. Two Yes volunteers. All ‘Yes’ signages. I couldn’t find one ‘No’ signage.
Re the conduct of the NO campaign:
It’s not just Dutton, Price and Mundine of course, but also the big secret financiers and shadowy groups like Advance and the RWNJ “Christians” in the MAGA/Trumpist mould.
Even with Dutton eventually out of the way, the other undesirables will continue to operate and maybe even to expand, as they seem to have unlimited funding and plenty of support from the likes of Murdoch and their US counterparts.
They will move on from the referendum to some other topic where they hope to destroy yet another aspect of civilised behaviour in Australia.
We are no longer onlookers when it comes to the malaise in the US and other countries; Australia is now confirmed to be part of it.
The greens voters were yes. The greens political party was effectively silent. Now the operatives of the greens political party want to explain to everyone how they really supported yes all along and it’s all Albos fault.
I pointed out the silence of the greens political party to my daughter last night. She, as a greens voters at the previous election, was pretty negative about their performance. No mincing words.
When I voted Yes in Ryan today, I asked around and all the Yes campaigners were Greens. Michael Berkman – Greens MP for Maiwar – was even there and I had a nice chat to him. This was a small school (Rainworth) polling booth in Bardon. There was one lone No campaigner who was softly saying “Vote No” to anyone who walked past and wasn’t even holding out the leaflets anymore. I almost felt bad haha. I expect the booth to be at least 60 Yes based on the vibe. Ryan as a whole might be one of the few electorates that scrape a Yes, I don’t expect it to be more than 55 on a seat basis.
The ABC coverage looks set to be pretty good. Dan Bourchier excellent as always.
”
Bird of paradoxsays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 4:33 pm
Another thought: the scare campaign “if you vote No, you’re with Dutton, Hanson and Littleproud!” is a rear-guard action It’s aimed fair-and-square at Labor (or Green) No voters – nobody else.
”
So?
Banana: “Michael Berkman – Greens MP for Maiwar – was even there and I had a nice chat to him.”
Should have asked him where Adam Bandt has been for the past few months. To see if he’s ok.
Windhover at 2.04 pm
Your perception of the visual demeanour of respective Yes and No is what we have seen in Braidwood (Eden-Monaro).
Yes voters have been cheerful, whereas No voters sour and dour. One even came along in his FUCKEN GRUMPY t-shirt.
Comment of the day was by Murray Featherstone, whose father Jack was a celebrated local artist who died in March aged nearly 94, having for many years campaigned for Indigenous rights. Murray said the referendum had been hijacked.
Another comment, which can be read as applying to most No voters, was said by a young boy in exasperation in response to his parents, who were trying to get him to behave decently.
The boy simply said: “You don’t know what the issue is”.
I’m still hoping that Tassie might vote Yes. The ACT definitely will. And I think the NT will be line ball. Prospects in NSW, Vic, SA, WA and Queensland all look a bit grim.
Pi: I imagine Bandt is scared shitless of the crazier ‘thorpe’ side of the party. They’ve made some really shit preselections which they need to get under control before they’re stuck with a left wing cooker branch.
I am on a booth in Hazluck, the only one here. Most of the NO stuff is on the ground and of course no one here to pick it up. Hard to judge the outcome, one person accused me of trashing the NO stuff. I am very encouraged for the future of our country from the attitude of young voters.
New thread.