Newspoll’s transition period from YouGov to Pyxis Polling is not yet complete, leaving us without a new set of numbers in over five weeks; we are in an off week for the fortnightly Essential Research series; the monthly Resolve Strategic was last with us a fortnight ago; and while Roy Morgan’s two-party numbers should be with us today, I don’t think we get the primary votes until later, and it’s past time for a new post already. So in the absence of new poll results, let’s reheat some old ones, in the shape of the following LOESS trends from the four regular pollsters since the last election, on two-party preferred and the Labor, Coalition and Greens primary vote. Note that the two-party preferred data is based on my own calculation using previous election preference flows, and not whatever the pollster uses for its headline.
Notably:
• Resolve Strategic has been Labor’s best series throughout the term, and to the extent that it appears that may be starting to change, it’s largely down to their most recent result. The series has consistently been higher for Labor and lower for the Coalition than Newspoll, but tracked very closely for the Greens.
• Essential Research has been distinctive in its high ratings for the Greens, who have been tracking at about 14% throughout this year even before excluding the pollster’s undecided component of 5% to 6%.
• Roy Morgan’s Coalition vote took a dive late last year that didn’t register anywhere else, leading me to suspect a methodological change. It’s since been about equal with Newspoll and Essential on two-party (at least until very recently, which may prove an anomaly) and at the high end for all three on the primary vote, which is to say it’s been low for “others”. I can’t be entirely sure about that though, because the numbers in its primary votes table consistently sum to a few points north of 100% (UPDATE: It’s pointed out to me that the table is missing a column for One Nation, whose support you can estimate as the balance of the other columns, not counting the uncommitted one).
Team Katich @ #38 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 8:54 am
No, not really. But common names are common names with their own derivations. The flowers have similarities, and they share a lineage of the great and wondrous Southern Hemisphere Proteaceae family (Australia and Sth Africa predominate)
Plus, the Waratah is the state symbol of NSW. So defo nothing to do with anything Qldish. No sir.
We’re looking at
Qld ‘Tree Waratah”:
Family: Proteacea
Genus: Alloxylon
Species: flammeum
NSW “Waratah”
Family: Proteaceae
Genus: Telopea
Species: speciosissima
TK,
No. They are bigger and better. Closely related but different genus.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 at 9:04 am
Victoria @ #43 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 9:02 am
Team Katich
If the USA becomes an authoritarian regime, it will be even worse for climate change policies. They will have absolutely no interest in mitigating global warming
What do you mean “If”?
”
Oh No! 🙂
Soc,
I’m going to pull you up on this one:
ATM I am running a detailed critique of the modelling assumptions for the ISP focusing on medium-term gas requirements. Without pre-empting the review process, I suggest you compare and contrast projections of gas use in the ISP “scenarios” and forecasts provided in the AEMO GSOO. The main difference is that the ISP assumes a ~90% reduction in gas use for power generation in 2024 and relatively low use out for many years, while the GSOO forecasts roughly the same amount of GPG over the next few years.
I’d love for someone to explain the ISP assumptions to me, because there is a large divergence in the modelling inputs from reality with serious ramifications for all stakeholders; magical thinking doesn’t help anyone.
From Wikipedia:
“Together with Telopea, Oreocallis and Embothrium, Alloxylon makes up a small group of terminal often red-flowering showy plants scattered around the southern edges of the Pacific Rim. Known as the subtribe Embothriinae, this is an ancient group with roots in the mid Cretaceous, when Australia, Antarctica and South America were linked by land. “
A possible (even probable) cause of changed voice after surgery requiring intubation (tube through mouth then through the vocal cords into the trachea) would be vocal cord damage. The larynx is an incredibly beautiful arrangement of little cartilages with delicate muscles controlling them, and the ‘cords’ through which air flows and which are variably opened, closed, tensioned etc are lined with a delicate mucosa.
The mouth and larynx happen to be at about 90 degrees to each other. So with neck extension, and instrumentation, the two and are lined up as best as possible, and the tube inserted under direct vision, or blindly, or using fibre-optic techniques. All very clever. But some are more difficult than others, don’t we know, and mucosal damage, cartilage dislocation, and the like, can cause temporary and sometimes permanent change to vocal production.
I’d love to upgrade to an EV. Unfortunately even the cheapest are well out of my price range. So, for now I’m sticking with my little Corolla.
Dandy Murray @ #52 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 8:52 am
Right, so the Brisvegas of Waratahs? Or just a Claytons?
The gas corporations are bullies of the highest order.
Best way to fight back is to replace with electrical items when the time requires it.
TK,
Look, not to put to fine a point on it, but one is beautiful slender rainforest canopy tree that grows to 30m in the wild and the other is a shrub.
Victoria @ #43 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 8:32 am
So, yeah, bad for US policies. Although some blue states will be able to maintain some level of climate policy and other red states (like Texas) will still continue to move toward including renewables.
The biggie is that the US has very high levels of consumerism. And consumption is a hard nut to crack with policies in a libertarian country. But a recession or a general decline in wealth does the trick. And I have no doubt that an authoritarian regime led by Trump and then based on Trumpism will lower their national GDP.
JUDGE CHUTKAN HANDS TRUMP A MAJOR DEFEAT WITH MARCH 4 TRIAL DATE
Trump didn’t get his asked for a delay until 2026. The former president didn’t get his federal 1/6 trial delayed until after the 2024 election. Instead, Trump will be on trial on March 4, 2024.
Where this ruling is devastating for Trump is the general election. If Trump is convicted of crimes related to his attempted coup, the conviction could be used as a legal argument to disqualify him from the 2024 ballot.
Not only does Trump not get the delay he was seeking, but if he gets convicted, he could get tossed off the ballot in key states in 2024.
The ruling is a disaster for Trump and a victory for the American people.
https://www.politicususa.com/2023/08/28/judge-chutkan-hands-trump-a-major-defeat-with-march-4-trial-date.html
Dandy Murray @ #60 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 9:17 am
Right. I got it. So the Big Potato of waratahs? Or…. the giant Cane Toad of waratahs?
We managed to grow some real waratahs here. They are constantly admired by passers-by. Less flowers and smaller tree seems to add to the otherworldly radiance of the colour. Two things I will never forget seeing in the wild – a gang gang and a waratah. Size only matters to the small minded.
Team Katich
Lowering the GDP is not a panacea if Trump and his acolytes take over the USA. It will be a shit show for us all.
PhoenixRed
Only a matter of time before trump has a psychotic episode.
We live in interesting times………
Dandy Murray @ #54 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 9:25 am
I’d suggest one is for public consumption and the other is what they actually expect to happen.
TK,
I think we can all agree that Aussie native flowers are tops.
“Size only matters to the small minded.”
Size matters when I’m trying to block the view of a four storey development the other side of the creek! Plus once they are established I can get started on convincing Mrs Murray that we should get rid of the poinsettia.
Socrates @ #48 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 9:13 am
Agreed. If we ever get to the point of arguing about the last 5%, we can all (those of us who are still left, that is) relax a little.
Asha @ #57 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 9:40 am
Well, I suppose it could be worse – it could be an SUV! 🙂
Griff @ #47 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 9:09 am
What I take from it is that we need to stop buying and using fossil-fuelled vehicles.
Whereas you seem to take from it that it’s not fossil fuels, it’s tourism.
Just another cooker.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/malcolm-turnbull-tanya-plibersek-campaign-together-for-yes-vote-20230828-p5e02x.html
That would be the Turnbull who rejected the Uluru Statement and chucked it into the too hard basket, mindful of keeping his useless arse on the big chair no doubt.
DM – Ahhhhh. Screening tree. Nice.
Vic – I agree. Just pointing out a possible silver lining. I am sure we will have someone reminding us of the importance the US has had in being the global security stabiliser and all-round nice guy. Which is half true. I do wonder who may fill that void if they go full Trump. It may not be as bad as we fear.
Player One says:
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 at 10:08 am
Griff @ #47 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 9:09 am
I shall let you parse this as I am certain that what you take away from this is very different to what I take away from it, which is we really need to get domestic aviation use down – reduce tourism even? And remove diesel fuel rebates. But best focus on someone’s old SUV
What I take from it is that we need to stop buying and using fossil-fuelled vehicles.
Whereas you seem to take from it that it’s not fossil fuels, it’s tourism.
Just another cooker.
______________
You got me! Your comprehension skills are impressive to behold. That is exactly what I said and who I am.
Carry on 🙂
Team Katich
Well the USA is not really all round nice guy, but we have hitched our wagon to them and the rest of the west. My view it is better than the alternatives.
Socrates @ #31 Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 8:35 am
Pope Francis heads a cult that actively protects child rapists, and their protectors. He is a warped individual and beneath contempt. Refer to this week’s Australian court case where the cult is being protected by our courts because a known (to the cult hierarchy) and protected (by the cult hierarchy) serial abuser has died. The Roman Paedophile Protection Society is an immoral organisation, rotten at its core, and throughout its tendrils. RePELLent.
Yabba
Wanna hear what a brainwashed christofascist sounds like?
Just listen to a recent clip of former actor and comedian Roseanne Barr. Gulp….
You will find it on Jim Stewartson twitter feed. Nutso doesn’t even begin to describe it.
I can’t link it for some reason. But he is doing good work exposing the cult
”
Victoriasays:
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 at 9:57 am
PhoenixRed
Only a matter of time before trump has a psychotic episode.
We live in interesting times………
”
Don’t we have them already in private as well as public?
We are seeing one psychotic episode after another in his public meetings with varying degrees.
Dandy: “The main difference is that the ISP assumes a ~90% reduction in gas use for power generation in 2024 and relatively low use out for many years, while the GSOO forecasts roughly the same amount of GPG over the next few years. ”
90% reduction from what? From its peak in 2014, gas use in the grid is already down about 75%. 25.3 GWh / year to 6.5GWh/hear
https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=all&interval=1y
It’ll be less next year, probably by another significant margin.
ISP is measuring from peak. GSOO is measuring year-to-year from now. Gas use is dying in Australia. Objectively. We are using less gas in our grid today than we were using in 2000. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
Dandy: “magical thinking doesn’t help anyone.”
Neither is not knowing the actual usage of energy in our grid.
EDIT: The last year is actually still in progress, but the trend is still the same. Gas use is dying. As more of the renewables generators and batteries that have been built over the past two years get commissioned, that trend will only continue. Someone should circle where the ‘gas led recovery’ happened. Help a brother out.
Spot where Abbott became PM, and where we would in coal usage if he hadn’t been voted in.
Good morning all, and thank you BK.
I see that my little 15 year old SUV took a battering this morning but that the tourism industry which generates 8% of the world’s CO2 emission gets the usual middle- and upper middle class pass.
I understand that ICE AND EV SUVs are now banned from entering all ecotourism resorts. Makes sense if you want to keep digging a hole for the planet.
And why not. After all ECOTOURIST resorts, complete with barefoot luxury, will save the planet from global warming.
Eat, drink, be merry and do as much tourism as you can because tomorrow we die.
This morning we did a bit of local tourism by way of thinking about personal accountability, tourism without the ecotourism greenwashing.
We walked. We went on the light rail. Off peak. We walked. We did some food mile CO2 damage and beef industry CO2 consumption damage (pie with sauce plus flat white). The containers were single use throw aways but were theoretically recyclable. (Probably will not be recycled.) We visited a minor cultural institution. We walked. We went on the light rail. We walked again. Next local tourism attempt will be similar but will use bus travel instead.
Of course static power and transport are actually the low hanging fruit.
The beauty of this is that people can pretend they are fighting climate change while they are actually indulging in a mix of middle- and upper- class state subsidied welfare and more climate killing consumption. Plus getting the psychic benefit of being holier-than-thou. Win, win, lose… or something like that, over time.
Stopping conspicuous and discretionary consumption… like on tourism… now THAT is going to get hard.
Shutting down a huge swathe of the globe’s ag industry… now THAT is going to get hard… what to do with around 2.5 billion animals and the 500 million people who depend on those animals to a greater or lesser extent, for example…. noting that the early promise of the technical solutions to animal methane emissions are not being met and 2020 is zooming closer and closer.
Boer settling in for a long stretch at the crease….
Like Boycott playing for a draw.
BW: “transport are actually the low hanging fruit.”
Transport is the really really hard one.
And Lars Von Trier has returned to deathride, Boerwar. 😐
Pi says:
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 at 12:05 pm
BW: “transport are actually the low hanging fruit.”
Transport is the really really hard one.
_____
Well which is the truth. Lesser minds need to know. One of our two biggest know it all’s is in the wrong. Who will win?
Petrol at nearly $2.50/liter argues otherwise.
ItzaDream @ #NaN Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 10:09 am
Well, he had bought and paid for the Prime Ministership by getting a permission slip from the Conservatives to ‘do no harm’ to their causes. So, there’s that.
A R @ #NaN Tuesday, August 29th, 2023 – 12:13 pm
Okay, wiseacre, how do you propose making the quantum leap from a Corolla to an EV then, especially if you are on a pension or limited income of some sort?
I’d love an EV as well, but all I could do last week was afford to buy a 2nd hand car from someone who could afford an EV. That’s just the reality on the ground right now. The wealthy are the early adopters, the rest will follow in their wake.
We should all pitch in and get asha an ev.
ar: “Petrol at nearly $2.50/liter argues otherwise.”
When it’s $10 a litre, they’ll be complaining that no-one warned them.
c@t: “how do you propose making the quantum leap from a Corolla to an EV then, especially if you are on a pension or limited income of some sort?”
It’s a serious problem c@t. I wish there was a single easy answer. The only thing I can come up with is that I hope that second-hand EV car market gets going sooner rather than later. The solution is never going to be to regulate the cost of petrol, but mark my words, people are going to try it.
Self-driving EV public transport? It’s going to have to be an option at some point or another. Especially with the ageing population. Still 20 years away though at least.
Yet another day Russia has chosen to devote some of its time, effort and resources to killing and maiming Ukrainian civilians:
“Three people were killed in an overnight Russian missile strike in central Ukraine, and two died in shelling later on Monday in the east and south, Ukrainian officials said. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said the three people were killed at an industrial plant in central Poltava region. Five were wounded and another person was unaccounted for, he said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/29/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-552-of-the-invasion
Charming people, these Russians. Except the ones who are standing against their regime in Moscow. I wonder how many of those there are? 😡
nathsays:
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 at 12:19 pm
We should all pitch in and get asha an ev.
____________________________
How about a bike and the instruction to read Rule #5?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/29/pollsters-progress-open-thread/comment-page-2/#comment-4153591
After oligarchs, commies, Nazi Germans, Czars, Napoleonic French, Mongols … they’re overdue a revo
Boerwar has a strong defense, plays both sides of the wicket well, smashes P1s full tosses out of the park, and Edwina bowls like John Howard.
Enough Already,
I read that a reason for the indiscriminate killing of civilians by Russia, over and above the terrorism aspect of it as they try and wear down Ukrainian civilian resolve, is that, as they are unable to obtain sophisticated chips for their missiles, the ones they can get via 3rd countries and their washing machines and fridges etc are incapable of allowing specific targeting of military targets and so they just fire them and they land where they may. Nowhere specific, just into a building.
Of course, they reserve some missiles for targets like hospitals and recruitment and training centres, but the others just get fired off almost randomly.
Which is sick and evidence, if you needed any, of the Russian state of mind.
With respect to transportation costs, it is not just personal transportation that is a contributor. Look at the report and one can see that goods transportation is a major contributor. The proportion of the transportation cost as a result of goods transport would be an area that one can more easily optimise without a large capital outlay e.g. reduce Amazon, eBay, Alibaba, Banggood and all other forms of online shopping that results in personal goods delivery.
Edit: spelling
Enough Already
I understand that the Latin rite Catholics in Western Ukraine are doing OK but what is happening to the Eastern rite Catholics (I think they call themselves Greek Roman Catholics)? They were driven underground during the Soviet Union and there were stories of conflicts when they reemerged and tried to get property back from the Orthodox but I haven’t heard anything for a few years.
OC, what about the descendants of the Khlysty ?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/29/pollsters-progress-open-thread/#comment-4153469
I don’t doubt the Libferals are full of shit (and glad to see the back of the PM+, same for Fizza, though Tonicchio ended RGR), only problem is red Liebor/ centrist blue Libs lite are shit lite (captured by the system, https://x.com/nickfeik/status/1695759326143824206?s=12, ‘… Albo’ is a disappointment on governance, powershift, public health, inequality/ (social) housing, climate disruption (https://johnmenadue.com/fatal-mistake-intergenerational-report-misleads-on-climate-risks/) …, may be someone can wake him up, or he can rediscover the many over the few, don’t really want the other side back after one term, or at all), if not all shit or shite (UAP/ PUP, PHON), meanwhile bring on more minor parties/ independents
https://theshovel.com.au/2023/08/29/pm-wears-costume-of-his-traditional-owners/ or https://theconversation.com/worried-about-agents-of-foreign-influence-just-look-at-who-owns-australias-biggest-companies-123343
Though so far ‘only’ one broken promise, https://www.abc.net.au/news/factcheck/promisetracker