Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)

Essential Research finds no sign of buyers’ remorse from the election of the Albanese government, and a strong appetite for government regulation of rents.

The voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which include a 6% undecided component, have Labor and the Coalition tied on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor steady and the Coalition up three. The Greens are up two to 14%, reversing a dip last time, while One Nation are down three to 5%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is at 51-43, in from 52-42 last time.

Also included in the poll was a forced response question as to whether respondents were glad Labor had won the last election or if they felt it would have been better if the Coalition had been re-elected, with respective results of 57% and 43%. One of the pollster’s two leadership ratings, this one inviting respondents to rate Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton on a scale from one to ten. This found 37% giving Albanese a rating of seven or higher, up a point on a month ago, with a new peak of 29% rating him a three or lower, up two. Peter Dutton was respectively steady at 27% and up one to 35%.

Respondents came down heavily in favour of regulation of rents, with 34% favouring a freeze until economic conditions improve out of four options on offer, another 44% favouring a once-yearly increase capped at the inflation rate, 11% favouring an uncapped once-yearly increase, and only 10% favouring no limits. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151, and can be viewed in full here.

Elsewhere on the polling front, this week’s Roy Morgan result has Labor’s two-party lead in from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 36.5% (up two) and Greens 12.5% (up half), and the RedBridge Group result referred to in the previous post can be viewed in full here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

973 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)”

Comments Page 19 of 20
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  5. Catprog

    “Their is a section of track being upgraded on the north coast line

    https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/beerburrum-to-nambour-rail-upgrade-stage-1”

    By coincidence I was involved in the first planning of a Sunshine Coast heavy rail line (to Maroochydore via Caloundra then up the Nicklin Way) back in 1995/96. It should have all been built by 2016 but never was.

    The critical bit was cutting across the forestry land from Beerwah or Landsborough (there were a range of alignments considered) to Caloundra. It also required completion of a third track from Northgate to Caboolture and a second track from Caboolture to Landsborough.

    The upgrade to Nambour will be good for Nambour but make no difference to the prospects of passenger services for the vast majority of the Sunshine Coast population.

  6. Dotard managed to get the Georgia plods to accept his staff filling in his weight and height before he showed up – but fair play, they rejected Dotard’s submitted mug shot…

  7. According to the erudite Kieth Olbermann Trumps pose was to cover up his multiple chins & that his height & weight weren’t taken.. they were at best a guess by an inaccurate Carnival Weight Guesser

  9. Boerwar,

    Do you have a source for those population density figures?

    Given that Perth stretches for almost 100km along the coast, I find it hard to believe that we have more than 4 times the population density of Melbourne, or that Sydney has 16 X that of Melbourne.

  13. ‘DB Cooper says:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 6:45 pm

    Boerwar,

    Do you have a source for those population density figures?

    Given that Perth stretches for almost 100km along the coast, I find it hard to believe that we have more than 4 times the population density of Melbourne, or that Sydney has 16 X that of Melbourne.’
    ————————–
    I Googled ‘population density + city name’.

    I have no idea how like-to-like the results are.

    Kowloon 43,000 persons per sqkm.

  15. Confessions says:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 6:40 pm
    Socrates:

    Thanks for that.

    As someone trying to move around the Brisbane area, it’s completely hopeless!
    ————————

    Fess

    As someone who lives here it’s completely hopeless. I agree, peak hour is almost continuous and it’s no better on the weekends. Accordingly, we attempt to make only one trip per week into the broader city cramming all our appointments, shopping etc into one day.

  16. ”
    ItzaDreamsays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 4:53 pm
    That well practiced mug shot is petulant and juvenile while at the same time studiously menacing. The forces deployed to get him to the court house were extraordinary – road side cops and security a team of motorcycle cops, a line of black whatever they are, one with the orange lunatic in it.

    Mavis @ #837 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 4:37 pm

    If Trump didn’t rehearse that puerile mugshot for at least a month, my name’s not Mavis.
    ”

    The motorcade is like what is used to bring in a high profile mafia boss as shown in Hollywood movies.

  17. Sceptic @ #907 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 6:39 pm

    According to the erudite Kieth Olbermann Trumps pose was to cover up his multiple chins & that his height & weight weren’t taken.. that were at best a guess by an inaccurate Carnival Weight Guesser

    sprocket_ is correct, as Maggie Haberman confirmed, Trump’s height and weight were filled in on the booking forms by his aides.

  19. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 5:00 pm
    US mining of coastal and inland waters in the Vietnam War was a tactical and strategic success.

    The highest ranked US person to die in the War died in an accident related to the mining operation.

    The images of peasants clearing the mines using fishing line was classic war propaganda.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pocket_Money
    ”

    Do you mean to say that more US and Australia soldiers would have died without that mines strategy?

  21. “Why is it not being reported in the Australian MSM?”

    We don’t produce propaganda videos for the lazy MSM to pick up as “news”?

    (Orangeland is Florida. *nudge nudge, wink wink*)

  22. ”
    Confessionssays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 5:11 pm
    Looks like Donald has returned to Twitter (or whatever it’s called now), just as expected. His mate Musk was always going to let him back on the platform.
    ”

    It is called X, formerly known as Twitter.

  23. According to Wikipedia:

    Brisbane – 159 people/km2
    Perth – 341
    Adelaide – 426
    Sydney – 433
    Melbourne – 503

    Brisbane certainly very low.

  24. Alexander Vindman has an interesting take on the likely scenario to play out after the death of Prighozin (not what I expected):

    More important may be the implications of Prigozhin’s death for the Ukraine war. The reality might be that conditions have been set for more latitude for Putin to start negotiations and wind down the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    The elimination of Wagner after that of Surovikin, the hawk-general calling for a full mobilization and shift to war footing, and Igor Girkin, the nationalist firebrand responsible for the conduct of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014, weakens the nationalist wing pushing for a more aggressive war—and may ease pressure on Putin for a continued, expanded war. This could open up the possibility of Russian negotiations to end the war later in the fall.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/alexander-vindman-prigozhins-death-could-speed-peace-in-ukraine

  25. “The removal of humans from food production is getting an acceleration from AI and robotics.”

    The removal of humans from food production is will be getting an acceleration from AI and robotics.

  26. The reality might be that conditions have been set for more latitude for Putin to start negotiations and wind down the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    “Blessed are the peacemakers”? As long as the deal is signed in The Hague, go for it.

  27. Boerwar says:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 6:49 pm
    ‘DB Cooper says:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 6:45 pm

    Boerwar,

    Do you have a source for those population density figures?……
    ————————–
    I Googled ‘population density + city name’.
    I have no idea how like-to-like the results ………….
    *************
    I think Google has given you local government areas rather than the greater metropolitan areas

  29. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 5:17 pm
    Confessions @ #863 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 5:15 pm

    C@tmomma @ #857 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 5:11 pm

    Someone has got to meme that Trump mugshot. I’d caption it, ‘Respect my Authoritah!’

    Everything Trump Touches Dies.

    Except Trump.
    ”

    Whereas Turnbull has Midas touch in reverse
    When it comes to Trump I don’t necessarily and completely agree with what Rick Wilson coined above.

  30. Righto bludgers.
    Am running equal 1st in 2 of the tipping comps I am in. $500 fuel voucher for one and a meal for 2 at the local bistro for the other.
    Am behind on the season margin, so I need a roughie if anyone has one. Personally i am not sure on the Bulldogs and Syd winning and maybe GWS to win.
    These are my tips at the minute.
    Coll to beat Ess (20 points)
    Gold Coast to beat North
    Haw to beat Freo
    Brisbane to beat St Kilda
    Bulldogs to beat Geel
    Adelaide to beat West Coast
    Port to beat Rich
    Sydney to beat Melb
    Carl to beat GWS.

  32. Confessions:

    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 4:43 pm

    Mavis @ #837 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 4:37 pm

    If Trump didn’t rehearse that puerile mugshot for at least a month, my name’s not Mavis.

    [‘I said the same thing about Rudy.

    All part of the grand scheme to pass this off as a persecution conspiracy against Trump.’]

    Yep, what a motley crew!

    I’d add that traffic from Brisbane to the Goldie is always worse on a Friday, having travelled said route for some 15 years before my retirement 14 years ago.

    ________________________________________

    Chesebro’s motive (a former SCOTUS clerk; meaning he was going places) for asking for an expedited trial is interesting, listed on October 23. Does a competent lawyer request same due to a guilty conscience? Hardly. If I were a conspiracist, I’d suggest he’s doing so to test the case against his master, who’s most likely picking up his tab. Trump will discard him once he’s of no further use, just as he does to most others – even dear Rudi’s screaming poor.

    _______________________________________

    High Itza. Perhaps we could be virtual friends?

  33. Taylormade says:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 7:12 pm

    Righto bludgers.
    Am running equal 1st in 2 of the tipping comps I am in. $500 fuel voucher for one and a meal for 2 at the local bistro for the other.
    Am behind on the season margin, so I need a roughie if anyone has one. Personally i am not sure on the Bulldogs and Syd winning and maybe GWS to win.
    _______
    yeah those are the three games that are close to line ball. No Crystal Ball here sorry. Good luck.

  34. Pueo: “The removal of humans from food production is will be getting an acceleration from AI and robotics.”

    Somethings gonna have to look after the oldies. Buddy PanningtonTM.

  35. ”
    B.S. Fairmansays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 6:22 pm
    Although the population is more multicultural than in 1999, the migrant population is probably more literate in English since then due to more skills based migration than family reunion.
    Plus the Citizenship test is basically an English test and that was a Howard government policy…

    It is a teacup storm.
    ”

    Over 70% of migration after Howard came to power is from Asia.
    Maybe Susssanne Ley thinks that people migrating from Asia don’t know English.
    People must have noticed in Hollywood movies where they talk to people of Asian heritage they talk in loud voice and very slowly as if they don’t understand English.

  36. It depends on which boundary of the cities that is used. If I was not suffering a headache at the moment I could go through the different boundary sets that exists for the capital cities and the sizes to get the densities. But basically, Yes, Sydney is more dense that Melbourne mostly due to physical geography but it is not multiple times more dense.

    The strange thing is the parts of Melbourne that have the least amount of density were the bits built in the 60s to the 80s. Newer areas are more dense as the price of land got higher and they started to build on smaller blocks of land. 1/4 Arce blocks have become a third of that.

  37. Boerwar

    Using Wikipedia definitions of population density of cities is not reliable at all. It depends on what is defined as the area of the city. These are inconsistent. E.g. Brisbane has one big LGA, whereas Sydeny and Melbourne have dozens.

    ABS definitions of the statistical areas used to count capital city populations are much more reliable. I recommend the discussion in Chris Loader’s blog, who looks at the population weighted density of each city and how they have changed over time. Brisbane is much less than Sydney and Melbourne, but more like half than 1/10th. Brisbane and Perth are similar.
    https://chartingtransport.com/2023/06/10/how-is-population-density-changing-in-australian-cities-2023-update/

    Incidentally if you look at the line for Canberra it started tracking up closer to Perth in the period when the LRT was being built, showing the plan to use the LRT to encourage medium density residential was quite successful.

  38. Ven – What I am saying is they are far more likely to speak and read English to some degree because most have come for work purposes. Plus you throw in the pseudo-English test that is the Citizenship test – and you need to be a citizen to vote – and the voting population is going to better equipped to write “Yes” or “No” than when there was a lot of European grannies and Vietnamese refugees etc.

  39. ”Given that Perth stretches for almost 100km along the coast, I find it hard to believe that we have more than 4 times the population density of Melbourne, or that Sydney has 16 X that of Melbourne.”

    Maybe the results are for the city local Government areas, e.g. the “City of Sydney” covers a densely populated area about 5 km across, the CBD plus innermost suburbs, with about 211,000 people, about 4% of that of the Sydney Metropolitan area.

  42. I think you’re right BSF. CBD ‘area’ sure. But “greater city” area compared? Can’t see Perth making any density records. As soc said, that’s what’s great about the train in Perth; More people can live further away than a city reliant upon car traffic. Still Perth tho.

  43. ”
    Taylormadesays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 7:12 pm
    Righto bludgers.
    Am running equal 1st in 2 of the tipping comps I am in. $500 fuel voucher for one and a meal for 2 at the local bistro for the other.
    Am behind on the season margin, so I need a roughie if anyone has one. Personally i am not sure on the Bulldogs and Syd winning and maybe GWS to win.
    These are my tips at the minute.
    Coll to beat Ess (20 points)
    Gold Coast to beat North
    Haw to beat Freo
    Brisbane to beat St Kilda
    Bulldogs to beat Geel
    Adelaide to beat West Coast
    Port to beat Rich
    Sydney to beat Melb
    Carl to beat GWS.
    ”

    Taylormade
    8 weeks ago I thought both the Grand finalists of last year will miss out on finals berth. And I also thought GWS will miss finals finishing around 12th.
    So what will I know who finishes where after this round.

  44. ”
    B.S. Fairmansays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 7:48 pm
    Ven – What I am saying is they are far more likely to speak and read English to some degree because most have come for work purposes. Plus you throw in the pseudo-English test that is the Citizenship test – and you need to be a citizen to vote – and the voting population is going to better equipped to write “Yes” or “No” than when there was a lot of European grannies and Vietnamese refugees etc.
    ”

    I understood what you meant in previous post itself. I was trying to point at Susssanne Ley mindset. She may think that her L-NP base believe that people coming from non-English speaking backgrounds don’t know English. They only came to this country to take jobs of Australian citizens.

  46. Interesting information in my Inbox today.

    As you may be aware, there have been recent changes to legislation brought by the Government with regards to the dispensing of medications across Australia. As from the 1 September 2023 new regulations commence for the provision of 60-days’ worth of medications. …SNIP… {REDACTED CARE HOME} has met with our contracted pharmacy, {REDACTED PHARMACY}, to clarify some of these matters and we like to advise of the following:

    • Packed medication (rolls) that are currently being dispensed on a weekly basis will remain unchanged.

    • Deliveries of medications will remain unchanged (at this time).

    • Not all medications will come under the 60-day dispensing rules. Only a certain number of very common medications affecting conditions including cardiovascular disease; Crohn disease; gout; heart failure; high cholesterol; hypertension; osteoporosis and ulcerative colitis. are currently being affected. Information can be found at: https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/60-day-dispensing

    • Please note that pharmacy have advised that it may take some residents longer to reach their Safety Net limit under this new legislation. If you have any concerns, please contact the pharmacy directly.

    These activities form part of Stage 1 of this process, and Stage 2 and 3 are yet to be announced.

    I’m new to this, but to me it reads as if not much will change, and that “take longer to reach their Safety Net limit” means that medication costs will be less for “some residents”? (Because cynical me expects that it would have been made quite explicit if the Safety Net Limit had been raised.)

  47. ‘Ven says:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 6:56 pm

    ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Friday, August 25, 2023 at 5:00 pm
    US mining of coastal and inland waters in the Vietnam War was a tactical and strategic success.

    The highest ranked US person to die in the War died in an accident related to the mining operation.

    The images of peasants clearing the mines using fishing line was classic war propaganda.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pocket_Money
    ”

    Do you mean to say that more US and Australia soldiers would have died without that mines strategy?’

    —————————————

    No. I meant to say that it was a tactical and strategic success.

    It was a tactical success because it closed Haiphong Harbour.

    It was a strategic success because it was a useful bargaining chip during the end-of-war negotiations.

  50. I follow the Australian Polling Council on Linkedin. About an hour ago I was notified (by APC, via Linkedin) that “We are pleased to announce the recently established Pyxis Polling and Insights as the newest member of the Australian Polling Council, and welcome Campbell White back to the Council as the Pyxis representative.”

    If you want to follow Pyxis on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pyxis-polling-insights/about/

    Pyxis website: https://www.pyxispolling.com/

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