We’re not likely to see anything on the polling front this week, but there is other electoral news to relate following recent parliamentary vacancies and party defections:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports preselection nominees to fill the late Jim Molan’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy are likely to include Andrew Constance, former state minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore, and Fiona Scott, who held the lower house seat of Lindsay from 2013 to 2016, together with reported front-runner Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. Constance and Scott are associated with the moderation faction, while McInerney is a conservative. Mary-Lou Jarvis, lawyer and Woollahra councillor, has also written to senior party figures staking her claim as a qualified woman and the third candidate on the ticket at last year’s election, while also criticising the party’s apparent intention to leave the position vacant until after the state election on March 25.
• The Australian reports the Liberal hierarchy’s hopes of fielding a female candidate for the Aston by-election stand to be complicated by the entry into the field of Emanuele Cicchiello, who is rated a strong chance by sources close to eastern suburbs conservative powerbroker and Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, other unidentified sources, “including some with strong Right faction allegiances”, rubbished the notion. Cicchiello is deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College, a former mayor of Knox and contestant for the seat of Bruce in 2013 and numerous preselections since. All other noted contenders have been women with the exception of Andrew Asten, a former staffer to Alan Tudge, who has since ruled himself out. Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the matter could be determined by a plebisicite of local members, which have lately proved resistant to female candidates, if the by-election is set for a date that allows sufficient time.
• Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation from the Greens last week marked the first change to party representation in parliament since the election, with the Senate numbers now at Coalition 32, Labor 26, Greens 11, One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network two, United Australia Party one and two independents, namely Thorpe and David Pocock. This leaves the government needing two extra votes when the Greens are on board and the Coalition are not, where formerly it needed only one. Thorpe was elected to a six-year term at the election last May, which will extend to the middle of 2028.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 12:52 pm
Dutton is sorry that he is going to have to say sorry in 15 years time that he negged the Voice Ref.
———————————————————————————————
We can be sure that Dutton has absolutely no intent whatsoever of Ch Ch Changin.
Cronus
Here is Grattan on Dutton’s problem with herding his Voice cats.
IMO, there Grattan makes a biological mistake.
Dutton is having trouble herding his Voice rats. Some Libs are out and about supporting ‘Yes’. Others are dead against:
https://citynews.com.au/2023/why-dutton-will-struggle-to-herd-his-cats-on-the-voice/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Dandy Murray says:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 6:27 pm
Thanks Fumbles,
Is there a way to reconcile RM’s methodology with the ABS series, based on the extra info collected by the ABS?
The movement seems so much more pronounced with RM, which I find intriguing.
_______________________________
Thats a good question, from the outset the survey methods and the sample sizes a very different. I presume RM uses self identification in the instrument so asks the respondent if they are employed/unemployed etc.
The ABS does it differently as they ask have you worked, how many hrs, then if you are looking and finally if able to start in the next week, so allocate your response to Employed/Unemployed and NILF.
Furthermore, to determine the unemployment rate you need the estimate size of the labour force, e.g. employed+unemployed so by fiddling with self identification you change a few parameters. I would assume the alot of people classified as NILF by the ABS are counted as unemployed by RM, and some of those counted Employed by ABS are counted umemployed by RM.
However the ABS does publish quite a series on hours and under employment, labor underestimation and so on so it would be worth looking at the number of people with low hours. The biggest hurdle is dealing with self-identification vs the coded responses.
Michael Moore, ex ACT pollie, with some interesting views on the Voice.
https://citynews.com.au/2023/differing-voices-test-the-question-of-the-voice/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
nath says:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 2:39 pm
Antic is special. Expect more of this stuff.
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Antic is an excellent example of a failed party vetting system or he is the party’s stalking horse.
Lars Von Trier @ #150 Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 – 6:38 pm
As usual, untrue, but it wouldn’t be a problem if it was.
Costello on Howard:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/howard-failed-as-treasurer-says-costello-20070719-gdqnhj.html
“Yet Mr Costello could not forbear to criticise his leader. Mr Costello gives Mr Howard’s term as Treasurer, from 1977 to 1983, a withering appraisal.
At the end of Mr Howard’s treasurership, inflation was running at 11 per cent and bank interest rates for home loans were 12.5 per cent.”
Mr Costello challenges Mr Howard’s determination as a reformer and his veracity.
Mr Costello takes issue with Mr Howard’s record as a fiscally responsible treasurer. ”
It is worth noting that John Howard failed general mathematics at the NSW Leaving Certificate.
Costello as Treasurer presided over multiple cash rate increases eg
Number 2006-11
Date 8 November 2006
“At its meeting yesterday, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points, to 6.25 per cent.”
Just a little bit higher than 3.35%, eh L’arse, old chappy.
Fumbles, thanks again.
Zoom,
“The unemployment figure published by the ABS is part of a set of figures, which need to be read together to get a true feel about what’s happening in the workforce.”
Yes yes, I get that. What I’m trying to understand is how the RM series relates to the ABS panel, and what the sources of divergence are.
I actually think Phillip Lowe is a master tactician.. evidence:
1. During the pandemic, cut interest rates to zero, encouraged asset inflation, prevented economic collapse
2. During inflation spike caused by exogenous variables, ratcheted up rates and set expectations it would keep going up; causing key metrics on confidence and retail expenditure to fall off a cliff.
Brilliant. Renew his term!
A referendum is a binary choice, YES or NO, and the default value is NO. You have to push the switch to YES. A question arises. Do spoiled ballots (or blank ballots) count towards the total number of votes cast? That is, do blank or spoiled ballots count as a vote for NO?
I’m liking the cut of Greens Senator David Shoebridge’s jib.
He is cutting it up in the AGD Estimates, every so often displaying his extreme adherence to social justice. A barrister by trade.
Just catching up with todays posts…
Mavis, if you are still about, what was your role at Platypus?
The more I think about a hypothetical ‘land swap’ between Ukraine and Russia – Crimea for Belgorod – the more sense it seems to make:
“Belgorod Oblast is a highly developed industrial-agrarian region, whose economy relies on its enormous wealth of mineral resources and the unique black soils.
Belgorod Oblast has traditionally had and still has strong ties with the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. Despite its relatively small size, the oblast accounts for one fifth of the trade turnover between Russia and Ukraine.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Economy
Belgorod would integrate well with the economy of its neighbouring Ukrainian oblasts, and would likely significantly enhance Ukraine’s broader economy through increased industrial and agricultural output. Hmmmm…
The MAGAs in HOR congressional hearing proved that Biden did not order Twitter to censure Hunter Biden Laptop story. (You have to watch). Another Jaw dropping thing by MAGAs
https://youtu.be/gbCHTc89q9A
Late Riser @ Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 7:13 pm:
“A referendum is a binary choice, YES or NO, and the default value is NO. You have to push the switch to YES. A question arises. Do spoiled ballots (or blank ballots) count towards the total number of votes cast? That is, do blank or spoiled ballots count as a vote for NO?”
======================
The AEC has this:
“To make sure your vote is able to be counted in a referendum, you need to clearly write either ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ opposite the question – as per the instructions on the ballot paper.
We will always admit a ballot paper to the count where the voter’s intention is clear but any marks or words other than ‘yes’ or ‘no’ (e.g. the use of a tick or check mark) could leave the formality of your vote open to interpretation or challenge. Ultimately, if challenged, the relevant AEC Divisional Returning Officer will decide if your ballot is deemed formal or informal in accordance with the Referendum Act.”
So, a blank ballot will definitely be informal, and so not count as either ‘yes’ or ‘no’, whereas a spoilt one may still count, as long as the AEC official deems it still clearly indicates either ‘yes’ or ‘no’.
Of course, percentages of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ votes are percentages of all formal votes cast.
Hannah Fry
@FryRsquared
·
9h
Every single person who confuses correlation and causation ends up dying.
RBA..inflation & Consumer Confidence
The RBA has all this with instant updates.. real time. For them there is no need for hindsight .. they see spending , how much & where & by whom.. cross reference to all their savings accounts etc.. they can watch where you walk/ drive…they see orders being placed OS with transfers .. BIG DATA. what more do they need?
Dandy Murray says:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 7:07 pm
Fumbles, thanks again.
Zoom,
“The unemployment figure published by the ABS is part of a set of figures, which need to be read together to get a true feel about what’s happening in the workforce.”
Yes yes, I get that. What I’m trying to understand is how the RM series relates to the ABS panel, and what the sources of divergence are.
___________________________________
Another issue, are the RM figures seasonally adjusted? The ABS are and smooth out and bumps. Post xmas is a traditionally a time of higher unemployment due to slow down in spending post xmas and new entrants to the LF e.g. school leavers looking for work.
Thanks EA.
“a spoilt one may still count, as long as the AEC official deems it still clearly indicates either ‘yes’ or ‘no’”
Any instructions given the officials then would seem important. But it’s harder to craft an ambiguous intention. “DONT CARE”, “DONT KNOW” etc would be deemed informal because neither are unequivocally YES or NO.
Thanks.
Enough Already at 7.16 pm
Your hypothetical land swap (Crimea for Belgorod = the white city) is fanciful, because it assumes a judicial process for ending a war based on considerations of fairness, whereas the real process is a political one based on assessments of what each party can tolerate to end the war.
At the same wikipedia site you can see that Ukrainians ethnically are 1% of the Belgorod oblast population, with Russians 80%. Putin’s main excuse for destroying Ukraine is to protect ethnic Russians. In fact he has killed them most of all, at least among the civilian victims.
But the presence of that excuse as the main publicly accepted reason for the barbaric war in Russia prevents any such hypothetical land swap.
See ‘Reason for Military Operation’ in this opinion poll from November:
https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/many-russians-support-ukraine-peace-talks-not-letting-territory-go
See also the later answers, which are more interesting. Only 31% of Russians surveyed think it is worthwhile sacrificing more Russian soldiers in this fratricidal war. That is still a rather high figure, given the lack of any coherent war aims expressed by Putin, but it is only half the number who think Russia should enter negotiations ASAP to save the lives of Russian soldiers.
The Russian military dead will not be as high as the Ukrainians claim, but historically it is much higher than in Afghanistan. Although most of the dead come from poor provinces in Russia, especially non-Russian ones, most Russians would be aware of the reality of Russian military losses, in contrast to their ignorance about Russian war crimes.
On the ANU National Security podcast there is a good episode I have just been listening to about “AUKUS Platform Two – Technology Sharing”. This was spruiked at the time as showing that AUKUS was more than just submarines.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-lesser-known-and-poorly-understood-part-of-aukus/id1395131021?i=1000598773290
Well if you want any more proof that AUKUS was nothing more than a pre election thought bubble this is it. In short, platform two is going nowhere. The main stumbling block is US laws on technology sharing. They rarely permit it. There is no sign of Congress moving to revise the laws.
This is not to criticise Marles’ efforts to get the sub program moving. I’m sure he is trying, and hopefully has succeeded now on the subs. Worth a listen.
but pezzulo has dun that now misleading Clair oniel after asking him if the contract nedid to be renewed and he mis lead her now he is triying to blame the other departments foor the well documented failures of his department unles they are woried he will leak stuff against labor to Duttonthere is no reason he should spend any longer in the publick service he is basickly a liberal party suporter protending to be a burocrat
zoomster @ #169 Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 – 7:23 pm
And all generalisations are false’
one exaple of his political role was his speechbasickly calling for us to go to war with China he is provin to be hopelis at managing his department evry thing is over budget he gave a questionable contract to a business and now is undermining his own policy buymisleading his minister to help his mate Dutton his were going to war speech did not helpDutton he should be gone today yes he worked for beazley a long time a go but he is clearly a liberal
plus he wanted to send any jernalist to jail who critercized him and clearly is adicted to power he has mis managed the department since 2014 yet it is never his fault its other departments fault he can not manage his job he is one of thoselets go to war but would never actualy fight him self prefer being a safe burocrat notwiling to act him self not only this guy but also cathryn campbell is in aukus its enough time to waight pezzulo must go
Dr Doolittle @ Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 7:55 pm:
===============
Dr D, I guess there won’t be any deals then, apart from what’s forced on the two sides by outcomes on the battlefield. Ukraine will not stop anyway, while there are any Russian soldiers on their territory. That includes Crimea. Withdrawal of Western support in the event they liberate Donetsk and Luhansk but have yet to liberate Crimea will be irrelevant to their basic decision on this, though of course such withdrawal of support will turn this into more of an insurgency operation.
Adani hit with investigation by Indian regulators as shares tumble again
Securities and Exchange Board of India probes fraud allegations from Hindenburg Research as conglomerate tries to weather storm
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/14/adani-hit-with-investigation-by-indian-regulators-as-shares-tumble-again
Air India (airlines) places the single greatest order by any airline. It is placing an order for 500 jets from AirBus/ Boeing
https://m.timesofindia.com/videos/news/single-greatest-order-placed-by-any-airline-air-india-seals-order-for-500-jets-from-airbus-boeing/videoshow/97854878.cms
Andrew_Earlwood:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:24 am
I find your reference to my age is ageist. I’m told by my mother that I only look around 75. I do however agree with your assessment re. submariners & CDs. And by the way, officers at sea retreat to the wardroom, not the mess. And don’t forget to pass the port to the right(?):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xLJlfX-Iis
”
Scepticsays:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:16 pm
Adani hit with investigation by Indian regulators as shares tumble again
Securities and Exchange Board of India probes fraud allegations from Hindenburg Research as conglomerate tries to weather storm
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/14/adani-hit-with-investigation-by-indian-regulators-as-shares-tumble-again
”
Sceptic
Six takeaways from the Adani-Hindenburg saga and how India reacted to it. This is the other side of Adani saga.
https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/six-takeaways-from-the-adani-hindenburg-saga-and-how-india-reacted-to-it-2334085-2023-02-13
Dr D, further to my last reply. I’m not making a judgement on the likelihood of either side agreeing to something as unexpected as a ‘land swap’, whether involving Belgorod Oblast or anywhere else. I am surmising what Russia might need to offer Ukraine if they truly want to secure a quick ceasefire with them. (Remember, Ukraine does not want, and is under no moral obligation to agree to, any ceasefire until all its territory has been liberated from Russian occupation.) I suggest it has to be much more than just “we’ll stop firing at you if you’ll promise to do likewise”.
It is worth keeping in mind that, as far as Ukraine is concerned, they are the legitimate sovereign over all of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. It is also worth keeping in mind that the UN agrees that Ukraine is right in this under international law. So, it follows from this that if Russia wants Ukraine to willingly cede any of this territory to them, they will need a carrot to offer Ukraine in return. Why else would Ukraine willingly hand this over?
Of course, we both know Russia has no interest in any peace deal that does not result in them acquiring at least some of this Ukrainian territory. The fact they are not proposing to offer Ukraine anything tangible in return is proof positive that they absolutely intend to acquire it by force, whether actual or threatened. That is gangster diplomacy, pure and simple.
I propose another way, not because I think Russia would ever pursue it under its current leadership, but rather to express what a fair deal would actually look like.
Dr D, I looked at that survey you linked to in your post. The takeaway from it might as well have been: “Majority of Russians Support Having Their Cake and Eating It Too”. Of course most Russians want peace declared now with their army’s territorial conquests retained. But how many Ukrainians would accept the status quo on the ground? Hint: if you read my post at 6:55am, you will find out.
Ven says:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:32 pm
Indian Banks have very low exposure to Adani while….
More than half the group’s debt is held by global banks led by Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered and Barclays.
“As bankers we don’t worry much about stock prices,” said a domestic banker who did not want to be identified. “All the operating companies generate enough cash to meet interest payments. The issue is with term loans. Even there it could be repaid even if it is not rolled over in the worst-case scenario.”
Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Standard Chartered declined to comment on specific ET queries.
Adani, too big to fail?
Ven @ #279 Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 – 7:21 pm
Should you ever get to Seattle, a trip to the Boeing factory an hour or so north of the city is well worth the drive. It is immense. Admittedly it was some years ago, so they’re probably not building 747s anymore, but at that time they were assembling multiple 747s in the same building. Tourists like me clambered around upper platforms watching the huge engineering all done in an enclosed space. (They also have an aeronautical museum about half an hour south of Seattle, at Boeing Field, where you can look inside different ‘airplanes’ and a returned lunar capsule. Another a great way to spend an afternoon.)
W W PAUL @6.22pm
We’ve subsidised roads too much for too long. Lets gets some cars off the road, and start building seriously good public transport, without car parks.
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Forget it. Its never going to happen.
Cars:-petrol, electric, share, rent, driverless etc etc have been and will be, for the next hundred years or more, the preferred means of transport.
Generally the more well off you are, the more you will spend to have the convenience and comfort from owning and using your own car.
If cars were free, how many people do you think would use public trains, buses or trams?
One million new passenger cars are sold in Australia every year.
Clive Palmer reportedly owns 9 cars. I doubt he knows how to enter a train or bus.
I bet there would be less than one in a hundred politicians who would catch public transport to work.
Elon Musk isn’t the world richest man because he made trains or buses.
Russia has attacked Ukraine from temporarily occupied Crimea repeatedly over the last year and would continue to be able to do so (or threaten to do so) if allowed to keep occupying Crimea. So, Ukraine cannot afford to let Russia keep occupying Crimea. Once the Russians have lost land access to Crimea, it will be able to be cut off from Russia and liberated.
Pezzullo is (or was) an ALP supporter of the DLP/SDA/extreme Catholic Right variety. He worked for Gareth Evans and Kim Beazley in Opposition. But why the incoming Government kept him, other than some misguided ‘let them serve their contracts out’ impulse is beyond me. Maybe Albanese knew him at the time and formed a good opinion.
”
Scepticsays:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:47 pm
Ven says:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:32 pm
Indian Banks have very low exposure to Adani while….
More than half the group’s debt is held by global banks led by Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered and Barclays.
“As bankers we don’t worry much about stock prices,” said a domestic banker who did not want to be identified. “All the operating companies generate enough cash to meet interest payments. The issue is with term loans. Even there it could be repaid even if it is not rolled over in the worst-case scenario.”
Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Standard Chartered declined to comment on specific ET queries.
Adani, too big to fail?
”
Not as per banks operating in India. You have ask Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Standard Chartered if Adani is too big to fail. ‘Hindenberg research ‘ , whose report caused all this chaos’ was a short seller. I hate short sellers. They are some of the people in part responsible for GFC. How? That is another story altogether.
Historyintime ,
I agree, there’s always a mistake that’s made on the labor side by not firing the top layer. They should have a night of the long knives sooner rather than later.
And I have one good reason. New people can’t fuck things up worse. Maybe by accident things will go better. But honestly If I were a minister I would be thinking long and hard about skipping a generation in the APS to grab some young energetic minds who want to do good work.
Historyintime:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:03 pm
It’s time to let him go. Generally Labor doesn’t do payback very well – to its detriment.
98.6:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:02 pm
?.
Labor probably thinks Pezzullo either does a good job or gives them political cover against Dutton and the Libs.
Both are now demonstrably untrue.
Enough Already at 8.04 and 8.38 pm
Is Russia in a hurry to negotiate a cease-fire? That does not look likely.
Lawrence Freedman says that, while Ukraine is waiting to integrate the military aid it has recently received, Russia is in a hurry to win a battle.
So there is no momentum at all now for negotiations, on either side, though this is what most of the Russian public now says is preferable.
The main reason why the war continues has not changed since April.
“Putin does not know how to end this war without its costs and futility being laid bare though he lacks an obvious route to victory.”
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-storm-before-the-calm
Historically, Belgorod oblast was probably more important than Crimea for Russia in the 19th century, even despite the Crimean War, because the soil there is so much better than in Crimea.
Crimea has become more important because of its resorts on the Black Sea, and apparently because of the Sevastopol naval base. But, as you know, the Russian Black Sea fleet has been nullified in Putin’s war, to a large degree. It has been over-rated, perhaps like other such “assets”.
In reply to Sprocket on his thoughts about RB Gov Phillip Lowe @7.08pm.
Within the last 12 months there were calls by a broad cross-section of people calling for the resignation or sacking of the 3 most powerful men in the country.
Luckily, the voters sacked the worst of them when Morrison was turfed out of his job.
Then, when we all found out that the Gov General David Hurley approved Morrison’s multiple ministeries without telling anyone, and kept it secret between them, many people including politicians called for him to resign. Only for the grace of Albanese is he still there.
Now we come to the Reserve Bank Gov Phillip Lowe. With every mortgage holder in the country as well as every second political commentator and politician calling for his resignation after he hiked interest rates 9 times in a row, how much longer can he last? Can he stay in his position till September when his term expires?
What were three of the most powerful men in the nation less than 12 months ago are now just dead men walking.
Mavis at 9.23 pm
“Generally Labor doesn’t do payback very well – to its detriment.”
Or it has done payback very well only against its own – to its detriment.
More likely Pezzullo knows where a whole churchyard of bodies are buried.
Late Riser:
The last 747 ever was actually delivered to the customer just a few weeks ago. It was a freight aircraft, new passenger 747s haven’t been made for years.
I know many of you won’t be able to read this given very reasonable concerns about funding the owners.
I on the other hand feel better for at least attempting to try to understand opposite opinions.
Now this article on the whys and why nots of RBA decision making was I felt a reasonably centrist take for the most part. There was mention a number of times of ‘Robber Energy Baron’s’ but ultimately, inevitably ( I was not surprised), finishdf with Jim Chalmers sacking…
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/real-reason-australia-is-facing-disaster-over-rate-rises/news-story/22a85692fd24de28d5307f5d44f91333
“This is the second round of inflation that has triggered further RBA tightening this year, as well as set off a lot of anger at Governor Phil Lowe. So much so, that Treasurer Jim Chalmers is unlikely to renew Lowe’s leadership at the RBA come mid-year.
While he’s at it, he might sack himself for being so timid for so long with the energy robber barons.”
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Llewellyn-Smith is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geopolitics and economics portal. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
So you write a piece in a media baron’s organ about energy robber baron’s that ends in sacking a Treasurer after 9 months…I just found that mind blowingly hilarious.
David. Congratulations. You win my ‘fool of the week award’. No doubt you’re worth a million times more than me in money but common sense escaped you old mate. Moron
Dr Doolittlesays:
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:55 pm
Mavis at 9.23 pm
“Generally Labor doesn’t do payback very well – to its detriment.”
Or it has done payback very well only against its own – to its detriment.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
At long last someone agrees with what I’ve been saying for decades.
HELLO!
Philip Lowe’s term expires in September. Hopefully he’ll be replaced with someone who believes that Neoliberalism is crap.
David Hurley’s (conventional) five year term end June 30 next year, his appointment having been announced a few months before the 2019 election. Scott Morrison never made any appointment or indeed did anything without political calculation. Mr Hurley’s right-wing credentials, including his reaction to any constitutional crisis, would have been thoroughly vetted. He should definitely be out the door on July 1, hopefully sooner.